Saturday, 15 December 2018

WATCH ALL VIDEOS HERE   

             

LIVE UNGA 73rd Ses/2018 

 

Watch LIVE ICJ CHAGOS Rights & DECOLONIZATION

 KERALA FLOODS

  13-20 August 2018  

     Kilauea Hawaii     

   

World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

 ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

      Watch MMS LIVE

 

 

 

 

CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017- S-W Indian Ocean,

another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 

DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

 

 

 

FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

 

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

 

LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

 

 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

 

 

 

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

   Mission in Mauritius.

 

 

Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 

 

Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

      Live with NOAA.

 

 

 

 

 

Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean

 

 

 

 

WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016

 

 

  

 

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

 

  

 

 Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

 

 

 

 Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

  

 

 

 

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Satellites Eutelsat 25bSatellites are one of the most sophisticated and modern equipment invented, developed and used by mankind. Most of the countries of the Blue Planet have recourse to them for various purposes. Satellites are classified in nine types: for (1) astronomy, (2) atmospheric studies,  (3) communication, (4) navigation, (5) reconnaissance, (6) remote sensing, (7) search and rescue, (8) space exploration and (9) weather.


Satellites vary in size and mass: Nano Satellites are of about 10 kg, Mini Satellites range between 10 to 100 kg and bigger ones may be about 1141 kg or more. The first Satellite was launched by USSR on 04 October 1957- called Sputnik 1 and followed by USA on 01 February 1958- called Explorer 1. Up to 2013 there are 61 countries which have their own Satellites. The most recent one was launched last week-29 August 2013 by South Korea. EUTELSAT 25B, a multipurpose Satellite, of a liftoff mass of 6,300kg, was launched in French Guiana by Ariane 5.

    Satellite RASCOM-QAF 1 was launched by Rascom Star-QAF Company which was registered in Mauritius- a member of Regional African Satellite Communication Organisation (RASCOM). It was rocketed into space by Ariane 5GS on 21 December 2007. Its mission is to provide direct TV broadcasts and Internet access for Africa. Mauritius does not own any Satellite so far. There are, currently, at least 8,322 Satellites that are in the Space, of which only 4,000 are in service. The rest are outdated and left at a higher orbit or been destroyed into pieces or debris.

   A Satellite is a compact equipment. It has a physical body which is known as a Bus. This Bus houses many sophisticated tools, apparatuses, cameras, sensors, instruments, batteries and such equipment required to operate according to the programmed mission. The body also protects the contents against solar radiation and hazards like debris, objects and particles that hover in space.

   A Satellite is not fully dependent. It relies on Launch Vehicles, like Columbia of USA or Ariane of France, to be sent in space. Satellites are in different shapes. They are fixed in Space Capsules which are mounted in the Launch Vehicle that transports them in the cosmos. They start their life in Space in the orbit ranging between 240 km to 36,200 km altitude. As soon as they reach the site, they detach themselves with the help of the energy generated by their batteries. They stretch their arms, deploying them as wings on which solar panels are fixed. The solar panels convert solar rays into energy which is required for all the movements of the Satellites and for carrying out their operations and missions intended for (see above).

 Map of regions WMO  The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), whose Headquarters is found in Geneva, Switzerland, has divided the whole globe into six Regions. Mauritius is in Region I. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has therefore the jurisdiction, on behalf of the Government of Mauritius, to manage Climate and Weather issues according this delimitation. But I do not agree with this, because this zone gives us a very limited opportunity of forecasting all Natural Hazards of our region (see figure).

   Our concern here regards Climate and Weather. There are two basic types of Climate and Weather Satellites:
(i)    Geostationary Satellites operate along the Equator at 35,800 km above Mother Earth (Blue Marble). They stay in the orbit at a fixed spot and move according to the speed and rotation of the Earth. Our Blue Planet rotates on its axis from West to East in 24 hours making a day and a night, so the Satellites move on the same track day and night.   

(ii)    A Polar Satellite operates at 50 km higher in altitude, that is, 35,850 km from the Earth. It moves between the North Pole and the South Pole along the Greenwich Meridian, at 90 degrees angle of the Equator. It completes its journey in 14 hours. With the rotation of the Blue Planet from West to East and with the movement of the Polar Satellite from North to South, the Polar Satellite is thus capable of scanning the whole surface of the Earth and gather all information required. It then feeds the Geostationary Satellite which in turn processes the data and information and sends it to Meteorological and other stations on the ground. 

   The Geostationary Satellite sends imageries of the atmosphere to the Weather Stations situated on the ground. The imagery that is received depicts a certain zone of the Globe as seen from the space. This area is called Footprint. Each Footprint depends on the area that the country or the institution desires to obtain. So, the Meteorological Services of Vacoas receives the Footprint of part of the Indian Ocean. This Footprint depicts the clouds, depressions, or atmospheric disturbances of the region found between Latitudes 40 degrees East to 90 degrees East and between Longitudes 0 degrees South (the Equator) to 40 degrees South. The scientists working with the Satellite, also send other information like cloud formation, sea surface and land surface temperature, wind direction and wind intensity including lots of other data.


                                                             
   Geostatic satellite meteosat 7Refer to the Satellite Imagery or Footprint that has been received by Meteo Vacoas on 31.08.2013. This is the Satellite Footprint sent by the Geostatic Satellite called METEOSAT 7 or METSAT 7 or MET 7. See the First Low Pressure I mentioned in my previous Email.

    After receiving this imagery, the officers of Meteo Vacoas decode, interpret, work out and make their forecasts for the Weather, together with other data and information like temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind intensity and wind direction, etc. They also draw the Synoptic Chart to illustrate the forecasts.

   MET 7 Satellite sends one Imagery to the Weather Station every 15 minutes. So, in one hour 4 Imageries are sent. Meteo Vacoas uploads, in its website, one such Imagery every 3 hours; that is one Imagery out of 12 Imageries (=4 times 3 hours). Sometimes, only one such Imagery is uploaded after 6 or 7 hours. In this way, it is difficult for a researcher or for a person seeking some precision on the Footprint, to understand the atmospheric situation on a real time basis.

   According to my observations, findings and predictions this Footprint that Meteo Vacoas receives from MET 7, allows a short term Weather forecasting. However, I do my Weather Prediction as from the same Satellite Imageries received by Meteo Vacoas.

  Geostatic satellite meteosat 7 Refer to the Satellite Imagery sent by METEOSAT 7 to Philippines. It is the same Imagery received by Meteo Vacoas at the same date and time-31.08.2013. This Footprint is wider in Latitude and Longitude. It permits a Forecaster to make a Weather forecast on a longer term. You should have noticed that, almost whole of the atmosphere of Asia, part of Australia, part of Africa and part of the Indian Ocean are visible. Your attention is drawn to the guideline I gave you, earlier, regarding the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Remember that most depressions, cyclones, thunderstorms, lightning, droughts and floods have the tendency to originate from the East of the Indian Ocean. This Footprint gives the opportunity to any Forecaster to track down any atmospheric disturbance more than ten days ahead. That is why I am capable of Predicting Weather better and earlier than Meteo Vacoas and others. Meteo Vacoas often takes too long time in identifying or in naming Cyclones. I usually do it 5 to 8 days earlier, in some cases one day before NASA. In the case of 30 March 2013 I did it 11 days beforehand, because I surf on different Footprints received by many countries around the Indian Ocean.

india ocean meteosat7   Now, refer to the Satellite Imagery sent to Germany by the same METEOSAT 7. This is the Imagery of the same day-31.08.2013 that was sent to Meteo Vacoas and to Philippines. This Footprint appears to be the best service offered to Weather Stations. Please, note that it covers the whole of the Indian Ocean, part of the Southern Ocean (Antarctica) and part of the Atlantic Ocean, namely of Southern Africa. The Satellite picture of this zone of the atmosphere, allows us to track down depressions, cyclones, floods and heat that originate during the Summer Season and also permits to track down anticyclones, cold winds, ocean high waves and possible snowflakes, snowfalls during the Winter Season. It also gives the opportunity to have indications of the emissions of ash from La Fournaise volcano of Reunion Island, which I have predicted.

   According to me, this is the ideal Satellite Imagery or Footprint that the Meteorological Services of Mauritius should receive, in order to make dynamic Weather Forecasts including other atmospheric and oceanic hazards. This is one of the real strategies that the Policy Makers of the Republic should adopt, in order to provide Protection and Security to the citizens. That is why I suggested, in my document dated 28 May 2011 and sent to the PM and other Political Leaders of both the Government and the Opposition sides, by saying that Mauritius should have her own Satellite and be utilized for several purposes like weather and climate, natural and man-made disasters, urbanization, fishing industry, marine archaeology, volcanic ash tracking, agriculture, etc. Also, that Mauritius should lead in Climate issues in this region.

   The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the institution of the United States of America (USA) that is responsible for the Weather and Climate issues. It is the most organized institution of the world. Its ‘mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage coastal and marine resources’.

   There are 4 main Geostationary Satellites for the NOAA:

  1. GOES 12 was operational since 01 April 2003 and has been monitoring weather in the East Coast of USA and part of Atlantic Ocean and also part of South America. It has retired just recently since 19 August 2013.
  2. GOES 13 is stationary 22,300 miles above the Equator in the East of USA. On 22 May 2013 it was hit by a space debris-micro asteroid, which disoriented its position, but was resettled with the competence of the scientists (mysterious number 13 ???);
  3. GOES 15 serves for the West of USA at the same orbit and
  4. GOES 14 is kept as a reserve in case the others experience problems.
  5. GOES-R is being ready for more advanced operations in the future, as a replacement of GOES 12.

    In addition, NOAA operates Polar Satellites including others. With the help of such Satellites, NOAA is capable of having all data and information regarding all the continents and oceans.  Moreover, the scientists have detailed knowledge of the atmospheric phenomena of:

  • .EL Nino which, during summer season, generates droughts, heat waves, fires, depressions, cyclones and floods from the East of the Pacific Ocean and moves towards the West, thus influencing the weather of the whole world;
  • La Nina which, during winter season, activates from the same zone of El Nino but causes the reverse impact with cold winds and snowfalls. It also changes the rainfall pattern throughout the world;
  • the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) of the Tropic of Cancer which is in the northern part of the Equator;
  •  the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) of the Tropic of Capricorn which is in the southern part of the Equator;
  • the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) system which causes the monsoons/rainfalls in Asia and
  • the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which causes floods in Africa, Asia, Australia and America.

    Most of the countries depend on NOAA for all weather and climate references in which all atmospheric and oceanic details are available plentifully. Even our next door neighbour Meteo France-Reunion Island seeks assistance thereto. Unfortunately, Meteo Vacoas does not appear to have recourse to this outstanding resource. Had they referred to it, then, the Deadly Flood of 26 March 2008, the Torrential Rain of 13 February 2013 and the Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013 could have been better monitored. Thus, 4 + 11 lives of innocent people and property could have been saved. However, I do refer to it. That is why I am capable of understanding and of Predicting Natural Calamities better and earlier than Meteo Vacoas.

   Now let me explain further, how I track down Natural Hazards in a dynamic way. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) governed by the USA, has the most sophisticated space crafts, satellites and equipment of the world. Moreover, it has the latest technology regarding apparatuses, cameras, sensors, tools, equipment, devices, vehicles, etc. and also in fields of health, geology, atmosphere, ocean, etc. The Satellites and Space Crafts operated by NASA, not only go to the moon, to Mars and to galaxies, they also keep watch on all the oceans, continents, islands and the atmosphere of the whole Blue Marble.


  Satellite pic mauritius march 2013 The Satellite Sensor called Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) was launched in 1997 in Low Earth Orbit by NASA, jointly with JAXA-Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. This Satellite monitors rainfall in both the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn globally. On 25 January 2008, there was unusually intense rainfall in Southern Africa, namely Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe where 45 people were reported dead and 120,000 people were displaced. It is this Satellite that indicated that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is responsible for the disasters. As I am linked to NASA since 2007, I received the Imagery, by the end of January 2008, which shows the heavy rainfall of Southern Africa.

 
    Now, see the NASA Satellite Imagery of 11 March 2013 which I received on 19 March 2013. The scientific explanation was as follows:

  • ‘a striking band of clouds ran roughly from North West to South East over the open Southern Indian Ocean’;
  • ‘the clouds in the North West are below one kilometre in altitude, while the remaining clouds, which are thicker and more developed, are between one and two kilometres’.

   This imagery and the explanations thereon, confirm what I Predicted since October 2006; that the MJO will fuse with the Southern Oscillation by June 2010. This is what I mentioned in my documents that I submitted to the Fact Finding Committee (FFC) that was instituted after the Deadly Flood of 26 March 2008. But unfortunately, the FFC omitted my Prediction in the report.

   Let us see the direction in which the clouds have been moving in the Indian Ocean on 11 March 2013 as per NASA Satellite Imagery. They have started from South Africa and continued through Madagascar, Reunion, Mauritius and Rodrigues until the South West of Australia. It is the similar cloud systems that caused the Deadly Flood of 26 March 2008, the Torrential Rain of 13 February 2013 and the Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013. These similar bands of clouds which were moving below one kilometre in altitude, struck against the Signal Mountain which is the first high land mass of Western Port Louis Mountain Range. So, the Deadly Flash Flood in Port Louis City and in Canal Dayot, which are found on the Eastern side and the Western side of the Mountain respectively, was inevitable.  

   Flash Flood Highly Predictable This Flash Flood was Highly Predictable by me. I was already observing the movements of these dark and heavy clouds since long. This direction of the clouds, towards the North West of Mauritius, was enhanced and accelerated by the impact of the MJO on Cyclone FELLENG- 28 January to 02 February 2013. Remember that it was this FELLENG that generated waves 4-5 metres high in the sea, as a result of which Seychelles was Flooded. These waves also affected the North West coast of Mauritius.

    Also note that the MBC did not announce the onset of the waves in the news bulletins of Thursday 31 January. I had notified the PM, the MBC Director and the Chairman of the Disaster Management Committee on this omission or censorship (no one took proper action!). These bands of clouds continued to move with thunderstorms in the same NW direction during the following 8 days causing Flash Floods in Rose Belle, Amaury , Quatre Bornes and Sans Soucis. This is what led to the Torrential Rain Warning of 13 February 2013. Please, take note that I had already alerted the Director of Meteo Vacoas 10 days earlier; that is on 03 February 2013.
 


  I was in the office of the Lord Mayor of Port Louis on Thursday 07 February 2013, in order to explain to him and to present my conference on the disastrous Flood and the dangerous Cyclone (GINO) that were approaching and which I had predicted since 03 February. He did not give me an appointment despite I discussed the matter with his two secretaries. I was told that a reply would be given to me by the following Monday. On Tuesday 12 February I called the secretaries for the appointment. They replied to me that the Lord Mayor had not yet confirmed any appointment.

   On the same Tuesday 12 February 2013, I traced out the phone number of Mr. Sok Appadu, the ex-director of Meteo Vacoas, who knows me well, as it is thanks to him that I participated in the Grand Baie Conference of March 2005 that was organized following the Tsunami of 26 December 2004 (which I had predicted since May 2002). I asked him ‘why Mr. Dunputh is unable to understand the MJO and the high probability of the oncoming Flood?’ He replied to me that I should explain the issue to him. Well my answer, as you do know, is that I had already alerted him 10 days earlier.

   The WMO has a big manual on the observation of clouds-International Cloud Atlas. How far our meteorologists refer to it or study the contents? I have been observing the movements of clouds since my childhood. It is not difficult to study them, as the clouds around our region are not complicated as compared to those of other regions. Meteo Vacoas often makes forecasts of cloud and wind directions contrary to what is really seen in the sky at the particular time.
That is why in my document of 28 May 2011, I suggested that our Meteo Offices should be housed in tall buildings erected like the Control Tower of the airport, so that the sky should be more visible with natural air and sunlight penetrating inside the buildings.

   One interesting scenario is that South Africa has been experiencing heat waves between 38 to 44 degrees and thunderstorms with heavy rain during February and March 2013. Mauritius too has been experiencing thunderstorms, heat-34 degrees and rainfall- 133 to 179mm during these episodes.  Moreover, Cyclone HARUNA (19-23 February 2013) which evolved in the South West of Madagascar accelerated heavy rainfalls in the region including Mauritius, Reunion and Rodrigues. On 19 February 2013, I sent an email to the Director General of the MBC, on the advice of his secretary, requesting him to organize a programme in which I would explain about the calamities prevailing in our region. Oh my GOD he never replied to me!!!

   We can now conclude that it is the Madden-Julian Oscillation that has adopted a serious track from the African continent to the Southern Indian Ocean, thus causing floods and other disasters. This scenario is highly likely to repeat during the next and future Summer Seasons.

   The Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2103 was also Highly Predictable to me. On 19 March 2013, I identified it and alerted once more Mr. Dunputh of Meteo Vacoas on the following day-20 March. I mentioned to him that the Deadly Flood of 26 March 2008, the Heavy Rainfall of 26-27 March 2012 and the oncoming Flood of 22-28 March 2013 constitute the same rainfall patterns. He ignored my Prediction and he even criticized it.

   I was in the office of the Speaker of the National Assembly on Friday 22 March 2013 to request for a conference by me for the Policy Makers. He never replied to my request and to the document I submitted to him through his secretary.

   Please, remember that after the Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013, a general panic invaded the Policy Makers and the public with the belief that a series of similar Floods would continue to prevail in Mauritius. By that time, Mr. Dunputh resigned from the MMS and Mr. Beebeejaun was appointed as Director at Vacoas.  The 5 Experts of Singapore, who were in Mauritius on 08 April 2013, explained to the PM that the Flood was unpredictable. They were totally wrong. Furthermore, they mentioned that the Calamities would continue in Mauritius. The BBC and local media also supported the same possibility. They also said that Cyclone IMELDA, which was named on 08 April 2013, would cause disasters to Mauritius and to Rodrigues. This was a miserable and unnecessary panic because neither the Government nor the Meteo Vacoas nor the foreign Experts could give the right explanation.
Imelda Cyclonic system

   In fact, the two Floods of February and March 2013 constituted one pattern related to the impact of MJO. WHEREAS, Cyclone IMELDA was related to the Cyclonic system which is another pattern. This is what I am devoting to sensitise the public in my Campaigns. That is why, in the correspondence I sent on 14 February 2013 to Hon. Ramgoolam, I set my challenge on understanding and on Predicting the Natural Disasters better than any Scientist of the Indian Ocean.

  Now refer to the Satellite Imagery that I received on 09 April 2013 from NASA. This is the 3D animated picture of Cyclone IMELDA which shows its length, breadth, thickness and intensity. It also shows how and why the Cyclone split into two parts with a Ring in the middle of its eye. On Saturday 13 April, Mr. Beebeejaun announced Cyclone Warning Class II for Mauritius and Class I for Rodrigues. On Sunday, Rodrigues moved to Class II. On the following morning of Monday 15, Rodrigues moved to Class III. Mr. Beebeejaun also declared to the MBC in that morning, that IMELDA would pass near the coast of Rodrigues “tard dans la soiree”. 

   Whereas, I mentioned that IMELDA would pass the nearest coast of Rodrigues around 5 pm on Monday. I sent my Email to MBC Rodrigues and to others on this Prediction. In fact, Mr. Beebeejaun removed all warnings on Monday evening. He declared to the MBC that IMELDA passed 75 km West of Rodrigues at 5 pm. You can now conclude how I am capable of forecasting Calamities with a higher precision than Meteo Vacoas.  Obviously, this is possible by the experience I have and by the support of Satellite technology to which I have access. NASA sends, to me, a set of messages related to all oceanic and land related calamities or phenomena twice each week and a set of messages regarding space exploration once a week on which I also do research. I have lots to say (later on) about Mars which according to me was a living planet.

   It is worthwhile at this conjecture to mention about the 5 Experts of Singapore who, at the request of Dr. Ramgoolam, visited Mauritius during the first week of April 2013 after the Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013. I called, on 12 April, the Prime Minister’s Office to have an appointment with them. A secretary referred me to the Ministry of Environment. Another secretary replied to my email by stating that the 5 Experts had already left on 10 April. My intention was to share my views, findings and researches regarding the Atmospheric Systems of the Southern Hemisphere of the Indian Ocean.

   Let me clarify everything to you now. Refer to my chart. This shows clearly that the Atmospheric Systems that prevail in the Southern Hemisphere of the Indian Ocean are in a triangular form. That is why I have named this system as the South Indian Ocean Triangle (SIOT). I will explain this in detail later on, but before the next summer season 2013-2014.
    south indian ocean triangle
THIS DOCUMENT IS STRICTLY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES,
KEEP IT AS A DOCUMENT AND AS A GUIDELINE.
P. KANHYE.                                                                        05 September 2013.

Read more: Fact Finding Committee 2008;

                 PREDICTABILITY OF NATURAL CALAMITIES;

                 UNESCO;

                 Radar of Trou aux Cerfs-a National Heritage.

                MBC: Unprofessional, Unethical and Anti-patriotic;

                MBC: PROFESSIONALISM IN THE MEDIA

 

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