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FACT FINDING COMMITTEE 2008 AND REQUEST ADDRESSED TO PRIME MINISTER RAMGOOLAM 

To Honourable Dr. NAVINCHANDRA RAMGOOLAM PRIME MINISTER Republic of Mauritius

'An authentic pleading for a DYNAMIC PREPAREDNESS CAMPAIGN on Hazard Mitigation in MAURITIUS
30/05/2008.'

From PREABRUTH KANHYE

Sir,

 This document bears a testimony of all my efforts in sensitizing everyone, both from micro and macro levels and both from local and international instances, regarding the Natural Calamities that I have PREDICTED and that are likely to affect dangerously all those concerned, especially the Republic of Mauritius.

 You will no doubt notice the frustrations that have curtailed the PREPAREDNESS CAMPAIGN that I have been launching as a DEVOUT PATRIOT on a voluntary basis with disregards to my very limited resources.

a) The local press, both from Mauritius and Rodrigues, has refrained, in recent past, from publishing and listening to my Predicted information on natural calamities.
b) The Meteorological Services has not reacted to my earnest repeated requests since February 5, 2008, to launch a PREPAREDNESS CAMPAIGN for educating and sensitizing our ‘innocent and ignorant citizens’ on the impeding disasters predicted by me.
c) Senior Advisor Dr. JHURRY did not arrange, since August 2006, for a meeting with you, despite I gave him my UNESCO document and despite my repeated meetings and requests, in view of discussing this issue, amongst others.
d) I made a similar request to Mr. Seebaluck – Cabinet Secretary, the day following the disastrous flood of March 26, 2008.
e) I am still waiting the Fact Finding Committee headed by Justice Domah to allow me to depone, despite I submitted to it my memorandum on the issue.

  This memorandum is, at the same time, my last “cheval de bataille” in the present issue. You are equally the ultimate resort, to whom I am addressing this issue. If positive results outcome, then I am PREPARED to educate, sensitize, communicate and prepare the public in the matter. As I have mentioned in my conclusion that the resources are abundant. It is simply a question of mobilizing them and presenting them for the betterment and security of the public, who is the overall beneficiary.

I am fully convinced that Mauritius should be harnessed as the most Dynamic Hazard Mitigation Centre (better than US and Japan) in the region, with a very important regional role. The reasons, amongst others are that:
i) it is among the most vulnerable, considering its insular nature in the Indian Ocean;
ii) it is found at the TRIPLE JUNCTION of the Antarctic, Australo-Indian and African Tectonic Plates and
iii) it is at the mercy of the impact of the disintegrating Antarctic Continent.

  These few reasons, if understood in simple terms, are enough to mobilize our ‘innocent and ignorant citizens’ in facing the impeding calamities envisaged. If you ‘donne mo chance’, the Government, as well as, the public will be the beneficiaries.


PREABRUTH KANHYE.

                                     **********************************************************************************


Justice B. Domah,                                                                                    April 08, 2008.
Chairman,                                                                                             
Fact Finding Committee.
Sir,
      Re: Flood disaster of March 26, 2008.
   I feel relieved to learn that a Fact Finding Committee has been set up by the PM in order to shed light on the flood event of March 26, 2008, which has cost four human lives and damaged lots of property. This disastrous event has urged me to express my opinion, knowledge and expectations, in view of contributing to your mission statement in this affair. In order to clarify my intervention, please, let me present myself and inform you how far I am involved, as a Freelance Researcher in Social and Natural Sciences, in providing information and guidelines to Local and International Institutions, regarding Climate Change and other various crucial contemporary issues.

   I have resigned voluntarily, in 1995, from the BDM LTD, after 21 years of service, in order to embark on full time Research in Social and Natural Sciences, assisted by my Special Faculty of Predicting Man-made Events and Natural Calamities. My Predictions are Scientific as well as Natural. My document ‘Odyssey of Science and Divinity’ which I have sent to Mars and Space Explorers of NASA/US, JAXA/Japan and ISRO/India, bears a testimony, wherein I have located archaeological sites of human and reptile fossils on Mars.

  Another remarkable example: I was conducting a survey on the Autonomy of Rodrigues during February to April 2002, by interviewing the politicians and others of the island. Mr. Serge Clair, ex-Chief Commissioner, lent me the Thesis book ‘Etude volcano structurel des Iles, Maurice et Rodrigues’ of Dr. Bernard Perroud. While studying it, this catalyzed me to PREDICT that the Tectonic Plates of the Indian Ocean are likely to move by 2005. I alerted the opinion of all those whom I met and some of them lent me an attentive ear. You have witnessed for yourself that the Greatest Tsunami of our contemporary life, occurred on December 26, 2004-just 5 days before the dawn of 2005. Besides, I used to talk on the Radio of Rodrigues during 1997 and 1998, by predicting to the people of the island, regarding the Autonomy. The Riot of February 1999, the Crash of the South African Airways in November 1987, etc, are just a few of hundreds of Man-made Events and Natural Calamities that I have predicted and that have happened really.

   The Tsunami of December 26, 2004 motivated me to participate in the Conference held at Grand Baie. I attended the event as an observer, by the help of Mr. Sok Appadu, ex-director of the Meteorological Services, to whom I explained my forecasting of the Tsunami. Besides, he introduced me to Dr. Ir. Jan Sopaheluwakan, Geologist and Deputy Chairman for Earth Sciences of Indonesia. I informed the latter that my Special Faculty, which today is considered as Traditional Knowledge, guides me towards such events. He agreed to me totally and encouraged me. Please, refer to the Outcome Report following the Grand Baie conference, paragraph 12 which reads as follows: “Welcome the efforts of the countries of the Indian Ocean, to jointly and individually, enhance their capacity to build knowledge, public awareness, preparedness, including through the use of traditional knowledge, and exchange good practices globally…”
You will notice that this Traditional Knowledge has been integrated in the campaign of Hazard Mitigation. This is one of the fields where I excel and take care to teach pupils, general public and broadcast on the MBC Radio, depending on circumstances. However, the local press and the MCA have been negative towards my articles and information.

   This Tsunami event of 2004, has turned out to be my “cheval de bataille”, in view of sensitizing our dormant policy makers, institutions and fellow ‘innocent and ignorant citizens’. I have harnessed myself with the spirit of promoting the different International Conventions agreed upon and concerning the catastrophes of global, regional and national levels, especially those that I have studied and forecast for the near future and beyond. My predictions are based on My Divine Faculty combined with Modern Scientific Documentation. In order to materialize my findings regarding Climate Change, I started studying the different reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the National Library. I noticed immediately that there are many loopholes in the reports. Besides, there is little that is being said, regarding Mauritius and the Indian Ocean. I also concluded that lots of forecasts are being made concerning the Northern hemisphere of the Globe, of the Arctic Ocean, of Europe, of the West, etc, but little scientific studies and researches are being done as far as the Antarctic Ocean is concerned. My predictions on Climate Change are mostly from the impact of the global warming and the alarming degradation of the Antarctica. If you refer to the document I sent to the UNESCO and to the ex-Director of Meteorological Services on 1/09/2005, I have already predicted the disaster that is likely to strike Diego Garcia, Agalega and Rodrigues by June 2010. With my current studies, the possibilities seem to multiply. I have already notified accordingly, the Mr. Olivier Bancoult, Leader of the Chagos Group on September 16, 2006.

   As a Patriot, I decided to have a meeting with the Prime Minister Ramgoolam, through his Senior Adviser Dr. Jhurry since August 7, 2006, in view of informing him of my predictions, of initiating a “DYNAMIC PREPAREDNESS CAMPAIGN” as mentioned in the UNESCO/IOC/IEWP (International Early Warning Programme) reports and about other issues like Oil exploration and Energy exploitation in our territory. Today, we have reached March 2008, the Advisor is still scheduling my meeting, despite my repeated requests and despite the copy of my UNESCO document that I submitted to him.

   I seize the opportunity to inform you that the Mauritius Research Council has denied the funding of my research project regarding Agalega on August 21, 2001. It is deplorable that there are often 'square pegs fixed in round holes' who decide on the negative destiny of people or of the state. History teaches us that similar stupid decisions made by policy makers having lack of foresight, have carried out the sale of all trains and tramways systems and today the transport problem is suffering acutely. The Sugar, Energy and Diabetes (my next document) issues are the outcome of similar stupidity.

All these elements have induced me, since 2006 when I got internet service, to reappraise the IPCC reports. I am trying to simplify it for the general public and for students and by adding much information that scientists and researchers do not seem to mention. I am doing it so as to support my predictions of calamities that will strike Mauritius and the world between 2007 and 2012 and beyond. I am still writing this interesting document.

  Coincidentally, while writing on the Antarctica, more than 75 International Scientists and Researchers have gone to the Antarctic Ocean as from 28 February, 2008 for exploration and studies. A last group of Australians have also landed on this continent. It is a pleasure for me to receive the preliminary information released by the different findings. These bits of information are already upsetting earlier discoveries and most forecasts made by previous scientists on the alarming degradation and disintegration of the Antarctica, from where most of our Natural Calamities are likely to affect Mauritius. It is during all my studies that I have been guiding, informing and making suggestions (repeatedly) to the Meteorological Services, CWA and Water Resources Unit. Please, refer to the different emails that I have sent to these institutions.

  Dr. Jan Egeland, UN Under Secretary of Humanitarian Affairs, has mentioned in the Tsunami Conference at Grand Baie “ disaster reduction is not simply a matter of  sophisticated technology and hardware: at root it is also a matter of communication and education…..We need better ways of communicating accurate information to the public in need of such information .”
The Deadly Flood of March 26, 2008, was HIGHLY PREDICTABLE, both by applying SCIENTIFIC DATA and by applying TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE. Kindly, refer to my emails. You can conclude that our Mauritian Government and Institutions, combined with irresponsible bureaucrats have failed lamentably in their respective duty towards the citizens, by relying only on sophisticated equipment, bureaucracy and inefficiency. In the eyes of the general public this deplorable event is a great sign of weakness in sustaining the safety and the quality of life of citizens. From the International standpoint it is a denial of the implementation of the decisions of the Disaster Reduction Schemes programmed by the UNESCO/ IOC/IEWP.

   The drowning that caused loss of 2 lives in Flacq and Bel Air are the results of the ignorance of the citizens as well as of the institutions, both religious and civil of the country. Flacq is situated in a humid zone. The word Flacq itself means pond of water. Flacq District is surrounded by at least 7 long rivers that are never dry. It shelters the 3 Aquifers of the East. Centre de Flacq, which is densely populated and savagely urbanized, is found on a wet land: La Source, Riche Mare, Poste de Flacq, and on its periphery there are Belle Mare, Bras D’Eau, Bel Etang and Mare D’Australia, etc. All these names translate and indicate to us that water is always present both on the surface and underground. The slope from the upland of Flacq district to the sea coast is acute, meaning that heavy rainfall should cause dangerous flooding. This is simple knowledge that a primary school student should know in the EVS. Whither is the grey matter of the irresponsible citizens gone? Schools, colleges, houses, buildings, infrastructure, etc have been erected on wet land. Are the citizens of such regions PREPARED to face the Forces of Nature?

  The Pamplemousses and Mon Goût episode is of similar scenario. Bureaucracy, civil engineering by governmental institutions (housing estates) and private sector, dumping and construction works, lassez-faire attitudes are ocular results of utter ignorance of one and all. You may have noticed how quickly the drainage rehabilitation works have been delivered ‘post-mortem’ in this region following the disaster of March 26. It is simply bringing ‘la tisane’.

The Satellite Image that the NASA emailed me on January 30, 2008 explains that “Unusually Intense Rain Floods Southern Africa”. According to it, the floods that struck Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe in January are the result of a probable combination of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone and of the La Nina. Another potential factor that contributed to this calamity is the weather pattern known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation. This “is a large, slow moving area of enhanced thunderstorm activity that moves Eastwards from the Indian Ocean into the Pacific and can affect rainfall in Africa”. I can conclude from this, that the floods that affected Madagascar recently and Mauritius on March 26, 2008, originate from the same phenomena. The PREDICTION that I make now, is that this Madden-Julian Oscillation will, within two years time, fuse or intersect with another Oscillation (unnamed yet) that is causing desertification, drought & flood in Australia. This is likely to happen in the South Eastern zone of the Indian Ocean. As a result, severe heat, drought and abrupt rain floods, acid rains including diseases, will manifest themselves in Mauritius during summer. During winter chilling cold, snowflakes, hails, invasion by icebergs and sudden sea rise will strike by surprise – a direct impact from the disintegrating Antarctica. That is why, despite the flood of March 26, I still maintain my PREDICTION of drought, cyclone etc, between 2007 and 2012.

 

   A current issue that is being debated in public is whether Mare Aux Vacoas is leaking. My explanations are:
   i) the catchment area  is not functioning properly since 4 to 5 years. There seems to be a paradigm shift as far as rainfall catchments are concerned. This region is my favourite area of research activities. I have noticed that rainfall is meager. As an example, on the first January, 2008, as mentioned in my mails, little rain fell since 3 am in Grand Bassin/Plaine Champagne region. Whereas, Baie du Cap, Le Morne, Nouvelle Découverte, Queen Victoria and the East welcomed more rainfall. This scenario repeated itself and it appears that Mare aux Vacoas appears no more as “la patrie des canards”. It is an example of micro climate also due to alarming deforestation. Furthermore, the fresh water that springs out around Plaine Champagne does not seem to move towards this lake or Mare Longue. I have ever mentioned this phenomenon to an Engineer of the CWA in 1998, by suggesting that an artificial canalization will help benefit much.
  ii) This particular region appears to be subject to earthquakes of low magnitude, ie below 2 degrees or so. The impact is that the earth is under pressure of such seismic mechanisms. This is probably making mild fissures slowly and water is escaping underground, so that Mare aux Vacoas does not come to full capacity despite heavy rainfalls. The lake is surrounded by at least 11 vents and craters. I have observed fissures and landslides on the top soil in some areas. This may be a truth to be investigated by expert survey. Currently, I am linked to Earthquake & Tsunami Warnings from the US and Japan. According to these sources our Blue Planet undergoes Earthquakes between 20 to 85 times during each 24 hours. Those that are above 2.5 deg. Magnitude are under record and considered as serious warnings. So, low seismic activities are not being taken seriously by the Meteorological Services, where an American Early Warning System has been installed. I had suggested to Mr. SokAppadu, a few years ago, not to buy US equipment, because I distrust its efficiency. How can we explain that the US/Hawaii has, since long, a network throughout the whole world and that the Tsunami of December 2004 could not be foreseen on Real Time? Furthermore, the following Tsunami of March 28, 2005 was equally not under control, as far as warnings were concerned. General panic struck everyone. I myself surveyed the northern coasts of Mauritius around midnight to dissipate this False Alarm. That is why I have criticized the US in my UNESCO document.

    My suggestions are that:
1) We should decentralize the activities of the Meteorological Services to various parts of the island, by taking into consideration the paradigm shift or micro climates that I am trying to explain. Some offices may have Japanese equipment installed. Others may adopt German or French technology which seem to be competitive, especially that Réunion Island is being monitored dynamically and with whom we should have close working sessions. It is also advisable that we establish permanent links with South Africa, India and Australia. This Triangular Network will reinforce our Hazard Mitigations and make this Meteorological Services a DYNAMIC STATION, supported by better qualified and well-trained personnel capable of handling both SCIENTIFIC DATA and TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE.
2) Educational curriculum should introduce and/or enhance TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE.
3) All the religious bodies, whose roles are very doubtful and irresponsible, should provide teachings of TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE (refer to my mail).

   Please, you may also take note that I deponed on January 31, 2008 at the Select Committee on Sexual Offences Bill 2007, by giving evidence, amongst others, of MODERN and TRADITIONAL MEDICINE, regarding Venereal Diseases, Aids etc.

  To conclude I would like to lay stress here that the concept of Climate Change should be redefined and clarified appropriately to the public, by specifying that it is a normal and natural process by which life is being sustained, except that certain events have turned out to be very dynamic and dangerous. Therefore, Sir, a ‘DYNAMIC PREPAREDNESS CAMPAIGN” both with a combination of SCIENTIFIC DATA and TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE, at micro and macro levels, are inherent and essential in view of Mitigating all Natural and Man-made Hazards, especially those that I have predicted. It is a question of mobilizing the required resources which are currently abundant.

   I am preparing to leave Mauritius by end of 2008 for my research projects. However, I would like to depone at the Fact Finding Committee.

Yours truly,


PREABRUTH KANHYE.

Read more: PREDICTABILITY OF NATURAL CALAMITIES;

SATELLITE SERVICES-FLOODS 2008 & 2013;

WEATHER FORECAST FOR MAURITIUS-NOVEMBER 2013;

RAINFALL AND CYCLONE PATTERNS;

Radar of Trou aux Cerfs-a National Heritage.

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Comments   

0 #5 Annie 2015-01-02 11:12
Very useful advice within this article! Thanks a lot for sharing!
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0 #4 Eddy 2014-12-31 04:00
Thanks for finally writing about Fact Finding Committee 2008.
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0 #3 Abbey 2014-12-04 19:15
Hi there, I enjoy reading all of our articles. I like to support you.
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0 #2 Omara 2014-10-21 18:13
Easy as well as positive points.
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0 #1 Guest 2014-03-24 20:53
You controlled to hit the nail upon the top and defined out the entire thing. Thank you.
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