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 KERALA FLOODS

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World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

 ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

      Watch MMS LIVE

 

 

 

 

CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017- S-W Indian Ocean,

another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 

DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

 

 

 

FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

 

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

 

LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

 

 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

 

 

 

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

   Mission in Mauritius.

 

 

Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 

 

Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

      Live with NOAA.

 

 

 

 

 

Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean

 

 

 

 

WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016

 

 

  

 

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

 

  

 

 Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

 

 

 

 Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

  

 

 

 

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 HIGH WAVES WARNING-SOUTH OF MASCARENE ISLANDS

The Summer Season 2015-2016 seems to end gradually and with some transition until the entry of Winter. However, a High Waves Warning has been issued by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) at 4.00 pm on Thursday 07 April 2016 and valid until 5.00 pm Sunday 10 April 2016. Waves of more than 4 metres in height have been forecast to swirl in the Sea within and beyond the lagoons of the South and West of Mauritius.

[SPECIAL COMMUNIQUE ISSUED AT 16H00 ON THIS THURSDAY 07 APRIL 2016.

HIGH WAVES WARNING FOR MAURITIUS VALID FROM 17H00 ON FRIDAY 08 APRIL TO 17H00 ON SUNDAY 10 APRIL 2016.

Significant swells generated far to the South of the Mascarenes will influence the state of the sea in the region of Mauritius as from tomorrow evening.

Sea will become gradually rough to very rough with South Westerly swells of the order of 4 meters in the open seas around Mauritius.

Ventures in the open sea as well as in the lagoons mainly of the South and West are strictly not advised.

This bulletin will be updated tomorrow afternoon.] Verify with MMS here.

 

Causes of Sea Swells in Southern Indian Ocean

The land mass of the Antarctic Continent located in the South Pole is calculated to be around 14, 000,000 sq./kms in area, making it the fifth largest continent of the Blue Planet. It was part of the Super Continent of Gondwanaland 170 m years ago. Besides, it is:

  1. Remotest- reachable nearest as from Argentina;
  2. Coldest-97% covered with ice sheets ‘a little over 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) thick. If all of this ice melted, it would raise global sea level by about 60 meters’..NASA. 
  3. Driest-10 mm of Rain per year (East Antarctica);
  4. Windiest –about 28 to 45 kph and
  5. Tallest mountain at 2,300 metres from sea level, ‘on average highest continent on Earth’..NASA.

 

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), is the strongest flow of water and air of the Blue Marble. It moves from the West towards the East, in a clock-wise mode, all-round the Antarctic Continent.  The ‘modus operandi’ of the (ACC) or ‘West Wind Drift’ is complex, but can be easily understood. This Ocean Current is capable of transporting an estimated 150 million cubic metres of water per second (some years ago the figure was 130 m cu mt). The energy so generated is calculated to be more than 100 times all the rivers combined together. (There are lots of  interesting researches and reports which continue to be effected.)

 

The ACC generates, simultaneously, both the Ocean and Atmospheric Currents. It can be explained by the rotation, on the axis of Mother Earth, from West to East and to the effect of the Coriolis Force. The Wind Current tends to penetrate almost the whole of the Tropic of Capricorn while meeting Southern Indian Ocean. As observed, it moves Northwards during a lapse of 3-5 days and retreats Southwards at the same pace. During its interaction, it is capable of interfering and of, thereby, neutralizing the South-East Trade Wind (SETW), the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the ‘Malgache Wind’ which has faded out since a few decades. As such, the ACC is so robust that all Depressions, Cyclones and Flood Storms are pulled down towards the cold waters of the Sub-Tropic and the South Pole. This process is mostly seen to cause Weather Instability, Convection, Troughs and Fronts (Cold or Warm) in the Atmosphere and Sea Swells along its track. Click here to check live with NOAA.

 

The ACC is the only Current which meets three Oceans-Indian, Atlantic and Pacific which are mostly warm. This System carries many pockets of Low Pressure Systems, following the impacts of Global Warming. Moreover, the depletion of the Ozone accelerates ice melting.

 

It generates Anti-Cyclones which blow anti-clock-wise and move from the West to the East. As the ACC brings cold air and cold water, it ventilates the three Oceans. The Anti-Cyclones act like the wings of a fan, thereby blowing cold wind whose gusts may reach 90 kph and oozing cold water whose energy may cause upwelling and High Waves up to 5 metres in height or more.

 

It is worthwhile to say that when the Ocean and Atmospheric Currents prevail, the sea is churned so much so that the navigation of aeroplanes and ships become risky. There is also interaction with the surface ocean current like South Equatorial Current which surfs to the East or the West according to the seasons. See picture and animation below: http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/kits/currents/05currents1.html

and also of the global deep sea currents. Refer to picture here:http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/kits/currents/06conveyor2.html

 

So, these are a few of the reasons why the missing of the Malaysian Airline Flight MH 370 with 239 passengers and crew disappeared in the Southern Indian Ocean on 10 March  2014. The government of Mauritius mobilised search and rescue operations through the Coast Guard ship and aeroplane. France, US, China, Australia and others joined in without any result. However,  some debris of aeroplane has been discovered in Reunion Island last year, some other part in Mozambique last month and in Rodrigues Island last week.

 

A similar disaster occurred on 28 November 1987 with the disappearance of one South African Airways Flight 295 Helderberg Boeing 747 which got missing about 125 km North of Mauritius after taking off from Taiwan.

 

One local citizen who was on board lost his life together with that of all 140 passengers and 19 crew members. Some debris was located after 12 hours of the crash after drifting from the impact location. The captain was in communication with the air traffic control of Plaisance Airport of Mauritius. It appears that the plane caught fire aboard and tried to land at Plaisance, but was encountered by a precipitation. See below.

[And, Springbok Two Nine Five copy actual weather Plaisance Copy actual weather Plaisance. The wind one one zero degrees zero five knots. The visibility above one zero kilometres. And we have a precipitation in sight to the north. Clouds, five oktas one six zero zero, one okta five thousand feet.]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_Airways_Flight_295

(Curiously, I had Predicted that air crash several years beforehand! Read more: http://www.kanhye.com/about-me)

 

All these prove that the impacts of the ACC are really disastrous. It is noteworthy that the Antarctic Continent is under the assaults of Acidification and of Global Warming causing shrinking of glaciers and of ice shelves: Pine Shelf, Wilkins Shelf and Ross Shelf, Larsen Shelf, amongst others.

 

According to the Vital Signs of the Planet, Global Climate Change.2010, NASA:  

“the melt rate was as high as 2.36 inches (6 centimeters) per day…

Antarctica lost about 152 cubic kilometers (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and 2005…losing more than 100 cubic kilometers (24 cubic miles) of ice per year since 2002.”

 

 

Furthermore, glaciologist John H. Mercer of the Institute of Polar Studies stated in Nature Journal:

 “I contend that a major disaster — a rapid 5 meter (16 foot) rise in sea level, caused by deglaciation of West Antarctica — may be imminent or in progress after atmospheric CO2 [carbon dioxide] content has only doubled.” 

 

Early Warning Systems-illusory

All the factors explained above contribute so that the Mauritius Meteorological Services has issued a High Wave Warning for Mauritius. It is highly likely that Rodrigues Island will also be under the same Warning after one or two days. See location of Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion with Google Earth.

 

In fact, the Meteorological Services has released, at 4.00 pm today Friday 08 April 2016, a special Bulletin of High Wave Warning for Rodrigues Island. This is valid as from 12.00 hours Saturday 09 April until 5.00pm Sunday 09 April 2016:

[COMMUNIQUE SPECIAL DE LA METEO POUR RODRIGUES EMIS A 16H00 CE VENDREDI 08 AVRIL 2016.

Avis de fortes houles pour Rodrigues valable de 12h00 Samedi 09 Avril 2016 jusqu'a 17h00 Dimanche 10 Avril 2016.

Les houles assez importantes generees loin au sud des Mascareignes influenceront graduellement l'etat de la mer dans la region de Rodrigues a partir de demain apres-midi.

La haute mer deviendra graduellement forte a tres forte avec des houles du sud-ouest de l'ordre de 4.0 metres.

Les sorties en haute mer de meme que dans les lagons, surtout du sud et de l'ouest sont fortement deconseillees.

Ce communique sera reactualise vers la mi-journee demain.]

Reunion Island is also under the same Warning. Click here to verify.

 

 

Disaster Management

The Mauritius Meteorological Services has rightly identified the oncoming Sea Swells in the South of the Mascarene Island-Reunion, Mauritius and Rodrigues. The High Waves Warning has been released as from 4.00 pm Thursday 07 April regarding Mauritius and as from 4.00 pm Friday 08 April 2016 concerning Rodrigues.

 

However, the Disaster Management Centre has not yet issued any communique on this Warning. You should have by now guessed the reason behind such absence. Well, Honourable Dayal, who was the Minister of Environment, Beach Authority and Disaster Management, has stepped down upon the request of the Prime Minister Sir Anerood Jugnauth. This was done after the minister was alleged to have demanded bribery from a local businessman who intended to obtain the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) permit for his investment project. This resignation took place on 23 March 2016, on which day the WMO was marking the World Meteorological Day. Moreover, it was also the day when the festival of colours- ‘Holi’ was being celebrated to mark the victory of Good over the Evil with the burning down of the evil ‘Holika’. This is sad news, isn’t it? 

 

In fact, the ex-minister has been enquired by the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) and arrested. But, he obtained bail from the Court of Port Louis on 06 April 2016. Not to forget that, this gentleman lost my document which I submitted to him on 26 December 2014. The document was untraceable despite the efforts of his three secretaries and three body guards. I had to submit a second copy to him. Moreover, he cancelled my meetings with him in view of discussing matters related to Climate, Weather and Disaster Management. Very sad news, isn't it?

Read more: DAYA-4th Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN-4th FLOOD STORM-Phenomenal TWIN SYSTEM...(PART TWO)

 

In addition, Honourable Luchmeenaraidoo, who was the Finance Minister, has resigned and has been offered the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a couple of weeks ago. He is under an alleged charge of obtaining bank loan facilities regarding his investment on gold project. He has been absent in the cabinet meetings for a month or so, on the ground of ill health and hospitalization. The ICAC is still enquiring him.

 

 

On the other hand, Honourable Thierry Henry, who is a Parliamentary Private Secretary, was the driver who was involved in a road accident wherein a citizen died. He too obtained ‘bail for freedom’.

 

NB: You should have noticed that I have been mentioning, in various articles published in this website, in which I qualified the Disaster Management Centre of Mauritius to be ‘Ghost-Like’. The reason is that this ‘Country-Driven Mechanism’ mostly intervenes after the occurrence of Disastrous Events. On other occasions, I have been qualifying this Centre as ‘Fetus-Like’ which is likely to undergo abortion. This appears to be virtually true.

 

That is why the ‘amateurs-like’ Policy Makers of the Republic of Mauritius are incapable of implementing the Early Warning Systems for the Security and Protection of the population and of eventually being unable to build a Disaster Resilient Society.

 

 Keep watch.

 

P.KANHYE.                                             9.00 pm FRIDAY 08 APRIL 2016.

 

Follow me on  and

Read more: DAYA-4th Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN-4th FLOOD STORM-Phenomenal TWIN SYSTEM...(PART TWO);

                      DAYA-4th Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN-4th FLOOD STORM-Phenomenal TWIN SYSTEM and South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System...PART ONE;

                       World Meteorological Day-23 March 2016. Minister DAYAL responsible for Environment and Disaster Management steps down today and others.

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