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World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

 ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

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CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017- S-W Indian Ocean,

another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 

DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

 

 

 

FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

 

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

 

LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

 

 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

 

 

 

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

   Mission in Mauritius.

 

 

Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 

 

Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

      Live with NOAA.

 

 

 

 

 

Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean

 

 

 

 

WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016

 

 

  

 

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

 

  

 

 Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

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 Flood Storm 31 December 2015

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Summer Outlook 2016-2017- South Indian Ocean,

Predictions and Cyclone Names

The Summer Season for South-West Indian Ocean has, according to the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS), officially started as from 01 November 2016. It is expected to end by 15 May. So far, there are no harsh weather conditions which are prevailing, except the Special Weather Bulletin of 03 December 2016. Local observations show that Heat, Humidity, Drought and Rains continue to persist, rather moderately. In addition, Regional and International Centres are, thus, not alerting alarming situations. But, Cyclonic Systems are Predicted to cause impacts as from January 2017, because the Weather Pattern seems to have changed in comparison to preceding years.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has, so far, not given indication regarding cyclone genesis and/or precipitations for the South-West Indian Ocean during 26 October 2016 to 03 January 2017. See pictures below.

                

However, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has raised some alerts, during November 2016, for Tropical Disturbances which have dissipated after some time. Refer to the Satellite pictures below.

 

               

Météo-France-Réunion, the Regional Speciallized Meteorological Centre (RSMC), has been active with its regular Advisories. However, no significant cyclone genesis or precipitations have been noted.

 

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) issued, on 04 November 2016, its Summer Outlook for Season 2016-2017 as follows:

[Introduction

This report gives an indication of the expected evolution of the 2016-2017 South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) summer - namely, the likely cyclone activity, summer rains and temperatures   in Mauritius, Rodrigues, St Brandon and Agalega. The official cyclone season for the Republic of Mauritius is from 01 November to 15 May of the following year.  Exceptionally this year two storms already reached naming stage; one in the month of July and one in September, namely ABELA and BRANSBY respectively...

General Background

Correlations between sea surface temperature and summer rainfall over Mauritius, Rodrigues, St Brandon and Agalega have been fairly well established. Persistence and the behaviour of meteorological and oceanic parameters in analogue years have been utilised to generate the most likely scenario for the 2016-2017 Southwest Indian Ocean summer...

Extreme Weather and Climate Events

Regional and global observations over the past two decades as well as scientific reports indicate that the frequency of extreme weather and climate events has increased in the Southwest Indian Ocean Islands States.

It is very likely that similar events in the form of heavy and/or torrential rainfall leading to flash floods, violent thunderstorm as well as electric storms, heat wave with high temperatures lingering for days and explosive intensification of cyclones may occur during the forthcoming summer 2016-2017. Tropical cyclones evolving in the vicinity of the Mascarenes Islands may generate high waves that are likely to reach the shores of the Islands of the Republic of Mauritius… 

Conclusions

After careful analysis of the behaviour of all indicators and taking into consideration analogue patterns, it is concluded that:

1) Summer 2016-2017 will have normal to slightly above normal temperatures. However, on certain days in Mauritius, it is likely that temperatures will exceed the monthly average by more than two degrees Celsius in some locations. Maximum temperatures of 35 degrees Celsius are expected at Port Louis and in some coastal areas during peak summer months.

 At Rodrigues, maximum temperatures are likely to reach 32 degrees Celsius along coastal areas on certain occasions.

 At both St Brandon and Agalega temperature will be near normal with maximum reaching 31and 32 degrees Celsius respectively.

Occasional above normal temperatures, coupled with prolonged periods of high humidity and light wind conditions, may result in torrid conditions particularly during the months of January to March 2017 causing severe discomfort to the vulnerable groups of the population.

 2) The onset of summer rains will be slightly delayed. Rainfall is likely to be slightly below normal for the first half of summer and near normal during the second half at Mauritius and Rodrigues.

 Cumulative summer rainfall is expected to be normal with about 1200 mm over Mauritius and around 650mm over Rodrigues.

 At St Brandon cumulative summer rainfall will be slightly below normal with about 600 mm.

At Agalega rainfall is likely to be slightly below normal for the first half of summer and near normal during the second half with an expected cumulative rainfall of 1100 mm. 

3) During January to March 2017 atmospheric conditions will become conducive to the occurrence of extreme weather events such as torrential rains, flash floods, heat wave and violent thunderstorms.

 4) The number of named storms evolving in the South West Indian Ocean basin for the 2016-2017 summer season, i.e. from November 2016 to 15 May 2017 is likely to be 6-8. During this season, the region south of Diego Garcia seems to be more conducive to storm formation.]

Verify here: http://metservice.intnet.mu/climate-services/seasonal-climate-forecast.php

 

The MMS issued a Special Bulletin on 03 December 2016, at the approach of a Cold Front from the Anti-Cyclone of the South Pole.

[SPECIAL COMMUNIQUE FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 20H30 THIS SATURDAY 03 DECEMBER 2016 VALID TILL SUNDAY 04 DECEMBER 2016. 

Active clouds are approaching our region from the West and may cause heavy thundery showers over the island tonight and early tomorrow morning, mainly over the western part and especially at Port-Louis. 

The showers may cause water accumulation over the western part and over the Central-Plateau. 

Some useful advices:
1. Visibility will be greatly reduced, therefore it is advised to be very cautious on the roads
2. There are risks of water accumulationin in certain places during the heavy showers. It is also advised not to venture in these places.
3. In case of thunderstorms, the public is advised to remain in safe places.]

 

Remarks: This Weather Bulletin was issued because a local business sector had organised a show called PORLWI BY LIGHT, in which some historical places/buildings/points were under the limelight as from 02 to 04 December 2016. The electrical energy of 7000 kwt, so required, was generated by the Central Electricity Board which produced it from heavy oil sources. The government had contributed Rs 30 m representing 25% of the cost of project. Paradoxically, all the SADC communities of Africa had met in Mauritius, just 5 days earlier, in view of implementing the COP 21/22 Action Plan for the reduction of CO2 emissions. Amateur Policy Makers are not Agents of Change! Very sad!  

 

Change in Climate and Weather Patterns, in Brief

It is worthwhile to mention, that Mauritius has been under the influence of some Rainfall Pattern, mainly, from 2007 to 2013. Precipitations used to occur during mid-day until the evening. It is during such periods that the Deadly Flood of Wednesday 26 March 2008 caused more than 100 mm of Rain within 24 hours drowning 4 citizens (2 adults and two younger ones). The situation repeated strikingly and awfully on 22-26 March 2012, without casualties, fortunately. Torrential Rain occurred on 13 February 2013- a lucky escape. This Pattern culminated with the First Mega Flash Flood of Saturday 30 March 2013, during which 11 citizens died (mostly young) in the 152.2 mm of Precipitations within 1.30 hours in Capital City of Port Louis.

 

 

Cyclone Prediction 2007-2012, for which period, I mentioned that Disastrous Cyclones will not visit Mauritius, but will strike as from January 2013, including Floods. Cyclone DUMILE tracked near Mauritius as from 01 January 2013. The Torrential Rain of 13 February 2013 and the Flash Flood of 30 March 2013 confirmed the Predictions.

With the approach of Cyclone DAYA, Torrential Rains, varying from over 100 mm reaching 200.4 mm have forced schools to be closed on 10 February 2016. Reunion Island too has been showered by a maximum of 178.1 mm.

Localized Flash Floods have made landfalls in Rivière du Rempart with 127 mm in 3 hours on 13 February 2016.

Cyclone EMERAUDE was named by the MMS on16 March 2016. Although it was remote, Reunion Island was on Vigilance recording  maximum of 85 mm of Precipitations. Mauritius was showered with below average reaching a maximum of 18.8 mm, despite some Thunderstorms.

The remarkable zigzagging episode of Very Intense Tropical Cyclone FANTALA (12-25 April 2016) triggered a peak of 84.2 mm on 15 April.

However, the Tremendous episode of Thunder, Ligthning and Rain of 125.2 mm on 28 April 2016 caused the closure of all schools on 29 April. It resumed on 01 May showering 113.3 mm and lesser elsewhere. This Thunderstorm episode continued until Rodrigues Island the following day with below average of 44.8 mm.

 

The Cyclone Season 2011-2012 saw the formation and evolution of 10 Systems, of which KUENA (06-07 June 2012) was a Winter Phenomenon.

There were 10 others during 2012-2013, including an Early Phenomenon ANAIS (17 October 2012).

Season 2013-2014 gave birth to 10 Cyclones, of which Very Intense BRUCE (20 December 2013) escaped from Australia, but did not make any landfall.

The scenario of 10 continued during Season Season 2014-2015, many of which were disastrous for Mauritius, Madagascar, Rodrigues and Réunion.

Whereas, during Season 2015-2016 6 Systems, including one (URIAH) from Australia, visited the South-West Indian Ocean. Luckily, none made any landfall, except FANTALA which harrassed Farquhar, Seychelles to and throw, three times. Record Breaker FANTALA (12-25 April 2016) has been Phenomenal both in history and on this Website. See here: http://www.kanhye.com/9-climate-weather/103-fantala-very-intense-tropical-cyclone-record-breaker-scientific-loopholes,-but-best-prediction?showall=1

 

Cyclone ABELA (17-19 July 2016) was a Winter Phenomenon, but was, curiously, named by the MMS from the cyclone list of 2016-2017, instead of that of 2015-2016. Cyclone BRANSBY (05-07 October 2016), which was almost unnoticed by JTWC, NOAA and NASA, formed and evolved in the Sub-Tropic of Capricorn at the end of Winter Season. This too has been a Phenomenon. The MMS did not explain the reason as to why this Cyclone was not from the List of 2015-2016.

See Tracks drawn by Météo-France-Réunion (courtesy)  

   

   

  

International and Regional Forecasts

NOAA /CPC

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), according to NOAA Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion Last Updated: 01.03.17, Valid: 01.04.17 - 01.17.17 states the following:

[The MJO has remained relatively weak over the past week, though some organized convective signal is now evident from the eastern Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent...During Week-1, the best odds of TC formation are just off the Kimberly Coast of Australia where a high confidence shape is depicted. There is a moderate risk of formation over the northeastern Indian Ocean, with above-average rainfall expected to extend into Southeast Asia throughout the week. There is a tropical disturbance over the West Pacific east of the Philippines, but odds of TC formation are decidedly low.

During Week-2, a low risk of TC formation exists over the Southwest Indian Ocean and the Mozambique Channel, though confidence is too low to depict a shape for either region at this time.]

Refer to picture NOAA /CPC above.

 

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) has issued: [Most indicators of ENSO remain at neutral levels, including sea surface and sub-surface temperatures, pressure patterns, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

Consensus among climate models indicates the central tropical Pacific will remain in the neutral range throughout the southern summer and autumn, hence the ENSO Outlook status remains at INACTIVE.

Verify with ABOM here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

In addition, ABOM is expecting Average-to-above-Average Cyclone formation for current season 2016-2017.

Click here to Watch VIDEO http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/video

 

Météo-France-Réunion

Météo-France-Réunion, the RSMC, has mentioned in its Seasonal Forecasts for January-February-March 2017, as follows:

  1. Temperature–lightly superior to seasonal normal+0.20 C to +0.40 C;
  2. Rainfall-
  • Near and slightly above normal for North-East region;
  • Negative for the Southern region and
  • Normal for the West.

Furthermore, in its press release regarding Cyclone Season Forecast issued on 10 November 2016, mention has been made that there is 60% Probability, for cyclone formation, to be inferior to normal; 30% to be near normal and 10% to be above normal.

 

Cyclone Genesis is forecast to take birth above normal in the far East of South Indian Ocean; the Central Zone to be below normal and the Western Zone to be normal-to-below normal.

 

Moreover, Year 2016 has also been recognized to be Hot, Reunion having reached the record of +70 Celsius. The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) around Mascarene Islands-Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion has been observed to have reached normal or slightly above normal.

Check here http://www.meteofrance.re/climat/previsions-saisonnieres

 

Météo-Madagascar

Météo-Madagascar has released a Video presenting Forecasts for January, February and March 2017. Given, the language is local Malagassy, the pictures show that Madagascar will be Wet and Hot. Cyclone genesis seems to be apparent. Verify here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4R0jW95G18

At the same time, Météo-Madagascar has made a Unique, Unprecedented and Innovative action. The Video shows a Beautiful young Girl doing Meteorological Presentation in the company of a senior lady-Meteorologist.

Watch Video here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFNgVlih86E&t=14s

 

Madagascar is waking up from the ‘Ashes’ especially that it has offered training to the local media reporters on 30 November to 01 December 2016. See here: http://www.meteomadagascar.mg/dgm/actus/formation-relais-du-rova.

 

This is a Model which should be followed by every WMO Member. Contrarily and very SHAMEFULLY, the national Mauritius Broadcasting Corporation (MBC) rather makes CATWALK while presenting the Weather Bulletin in the evening! This was vehemently opposed in my document submitted to the DG and Board Members, a few months ago. Unfortunately, the mateurist Meteorological Services of Mauritius is mute on this issue.

 

Predictions-Rainfalls and Cyclones

According to local media, the reservoirs of Mauritius have, last December, dried up ranging between 37% to 64% of capacity and the underground water tables have been emptied to 50%. Water supplies are being monotored with drastic measures in most regions. The Temperature has reached 340 Celsius , Humidity is on the high side, 66-99% and Rains are sporadic. All these mean that Drought is prevailing.

 

The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was much active in the Northern Hemisphere last months, in spite of the Winter Season there. Disastrous Typhoon SARIKA (12-19 October 2016) affected China and Philipines; Typhoon HAIMA (14-21 October 2016) caused stress to China and Philippines. NOCK-TEN (21-28 December 2016) made landfall and Storm Surges in Philippines.

 

 

After the short-lived Storm NADA (29 November to 01December 2016) influencing Sri Lanka and India, the long-lived Very Severe Cyclonic Storm VARDAH (06-13 December 2016) caused the death of 16 Thailanders and 16 Indians in Chennai, according to media reports. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows, in its press releases that its Forecast Track and monitoring were perfectly executed.

Refer to: http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/press_release_view.php?ff=20161212_pr_79

 

The ITCZ in the Southern Hemisphere seems to be rather mild. Besides, the EL NINO and LA NINA have been observed to be in Neutral Phases by the ABOM.

 

However, latest NASA information released on January 6, 2017-“Muted La Niña Follows Potent El Niño” states:

One year ago, the central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean were pulsing with heat, a result of one of the most intense El Niño events on record. One year later, La Niña has been relatively quiet, and she does not seem to be staying for long.

In 2015–2016, water temperatures and sea surface heights were above normal for 19 months, first weakly and then with great gusto in late 2015. But this event has been followed by just five months of weak La Niña conditions that are already fading.

 Check it out here:

 http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=89380&src=eoa-iotd

 

In light of all the parametres mentioned above, Predicted Change in Climate and Weather Pattern stated earlier and according to Observations from the Ground around Mauritius, ONLY 4 Cyclone formations are Predicted for the South Indian Ocean Season 2016-2017. January 2017 will be Hot and Drought will continue to prevail. The same scenario is Predicted for February. However, March, which is the peak of the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System, is Predicted to offer scenarios of Extreme Weather Conditions with Floods coupled with Disastrous Cyclones. The months of April and May will, exceptionally, prolong these Natural Events.

 

Usually, 40% of cyclones take birth around the Mozambique Channel and the rest is ditributed in the Central and Eastern zones of the Southern Indian Ocean Basin. There is High Confidence as to the first Systems for 2017 will form in the Mozambique Channel and/or Madagascar. Persitent Heat, Humidity and Bands of Alto and Cumulus Clouds moving from the North-East and East propelled by the South-East Trade Winds are indicative of this weather scenario.

 

Remarks: The Mauritius Meteorological Services mentions “from November 2016 to 15 May 2017 is likely to be 6-8”  Tropical Cyclone formation; whereas ABOM and Meteo-France-Reunion do not quote any figure, so far.

NB: The South-West Indian Ocean holds Historical World Records in Rainfalls especially during January to February/Cyclonic periods. Check here: http://pluiesextremes.meteo.fr/lareunion/Records-mondiaux.html

 

Cyclone Names for 2016-2017

Name              Provided by

ABELA         Tanzania (F)                                   
BRANSBY      South Africa (M)
CARLOS          Mauritius (M) 
DINEO            Botswana (F)        
ENAWO           Malawi (F)
FERNANDO     Mozambique (M)
GABEKILE       Swaziland (F)
HEROLD         Seychelles (M)
IRONDRO        Madagascar (F)
JERUTO          Kenya (F)                                 
KUNDAI           Zimbabwe (M)
LISEBO            Lesotho (F)
MICHEL           France (M)
NOUSRA          Comoros (F)
OLIVIER           Mauritius (M)                           
POKERA           Malawi (F)                                     
QUINCY            Seychelles (F)
REBAONE         Botswana (F/M)
SALAMA            Comoros (F)                                            
TRISTAN           France (M)
URSULA            Kenya (F)
VIOLET             South Africa (F)
WILSON             Mozambique (M)
XILA                  Madagascar (M)
YEKELA             Swaziland (M)  

ZAINA                Tanzania (F)                  

  See pictures of CLOUDS as Observed from the Ground.

 

The names bear male and/or female identities. There are 14 countries, found in the Zone of the South-West Indian Ocean, which provide collectively the names of all cyclones:

Botswana, Comoros, France (Reunion), Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania and Zimbabwe.

 

Cyclones which are born in the Area of Responsibility (AOR) of Australia continue to bear the same name when they move in the direction of the Mascarene Islands, i.e. as from Latitude 900 East.

 

Tropical Cyclones which form as from Longitude 900 East to Longitude 550 East are named by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS)-the Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (SRTCAC). Those which take birth along Longitude 550 East to 300 East are in the AOR of Madagascar- another SRTCAC, which baptises them.

 

 

NB: CARLOS which is the next name in the cyclone list is in the pipeline to form after the second week of January 2017. A FLOOD STORM, too, is preceding this System.

Click to Watch live from NOAA.

 

KEEP WATCH

                                                                         

PKANHYE.                             SATURDAY 07 01 2017.

Uploading completed at 6.52 pm on 11 January 2017.

 

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Read more: ABELA Cyclone of South Indian Ocean in Formation-Winter Phenomenon;

                                PHENOMENAL BRANSBY- First Sub-Tropical Depression for Summer Season 2016-2017-South Indian Ocean;

                                Thunderbolts Trigger Heavy Rain and Panic in Mauritius-Loopholes of Local Meteorological Services;

                                 Rodrigues Island- Lucky Escape from Unprecedented Thunderbolts Whole Night of 30 April 2016;

                                 LIVE TO TELL 2016- 13 OCTOBER DAY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION, etc.   

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