Monday, 23 April 2018

 

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL DAY 23 MARCH 2018 ‘Weather-Ready, Climate-Smart’

Watch Video-Thunderbolts Without Rain and Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017.

Watch Video-Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritiu, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

Watch ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017) South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

Watch MMS LIVE 

 

 

 Watch CARLOS Tropical Cyclne (04-07) February 2017-South-West Indian Ocean, another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 Watch DINEO- Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

 

  

Watch Video-FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS Formations- January 2017.

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

 Watch LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 September 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew Producing Dangerous Rainfall'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

  Watch LIVE from UN 71st SessionSpeech of Sir Anerod JugnauthPrime Minister of Mauritius.

 

 

  Watch VIDEO: SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atlantic Ocean to South-East Indian Ocean-01 September 2016.. 

 

 

 

 Watch VIDEO: THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 Watch VIDEO on BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016 Mission in Mauritius.

 Watch part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 Watch animation of CYCLONE FANTALA Live with NOAA.

 

 

Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN 10-13 February 2016:South-West Indian Ocean

 

Watch WMO Video 23 MarchWorld Meteorological Day 2016

 

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

Watch Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

Watch Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

 

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FLOOD STORM- 100% Perfect PREDICTION

Cyclone CARLOS in Pipeline

 (Kindly, read the previous article on 'Summer Outlook 2017' before continuing, CLICK HERE)

The last paragraph of the previous article reads as follows:

‘NB: CARLOS which is the next name in the cyclone list is in the pipeline to form after the second week of January 2017. A FLOOD STORM, too, is preceding this System.

The current Weather Conditions around the South-West Indian Ocean prove that the PREDICTION made on 07-11 January 2017 is 100% VIRTUALLY True. See picture on the left and Watch Video below.

 

 

NOAA/NWS explains Storm as:

[Any disturbed state of the atmosphere, especially affecting the Earth's surface, and strongly implying destructive and otherwise unpleasant weather. Storms range in scale from tornadoes and thunderstorms to tropical cyclones to synoptic-scale extratropical cyclones.]

 

The terms Flood Storm’ are being constantly used in the articles of this Website since about two years (see below). In simple terms of Meteorology, a ‘Storm’ is defined as a Weather System in which there is a Low Pressure or a Tropical Disturbance accompanied by Heat, Winds, Rains, Thunder and Lighning. Most of the times, this is used in the Northern Hemisphere to explain a System associated with Cyclones, Precipitations or Snowfalls of an intense nature. Example in the Tropic of Cancer: India Meteorological Department (IMD) qualifies such a Weather System as Cyclonic Storm and in Europe or in the West this is mostly known to describe a Hurricane or a Snow Storm accompanied by Rains and Snow, mostly during Winter.

 

Climate and Weather Dynamics of South Indian Ocean (briefly)

 

The FLOOD STORM in the context of the South-Indian Ocean is associated with Heat, Winds and Rains of cyclonic nature. Most of the time it is of Light-to-Moderate-to-Heavy Intensity giving the impression of being charateristically either a Cyclone and/or a Flood/Heavy Rainfall. A striking feature in the Southern Indian Ocean is the Intersection or Fusion of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), South-East Trade Wind (SETW), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). In such situations there is an active interaction of rising warm air, sinking cold air, troughs and ridges causing convection of Low Level, Mid-Level and High Altitude Clouds.

 

Usually, SETW propells bands of Clouds at Low Altitude, although those of Mid-Level and/or High Altitude, evolve during cyclonic periods until the zone of the South-West Indian Ocean. Bands of Clouds accelerated by the ITCZ, along the Tropic of Capricorn, reach East Africa from the East, mostly at High Altitude and from the North-North-East. The South-West of the Indian Ocean until the Mozambique Channel is the precise zone wherein Convections take place dynamically. This zone is also a Hot Spot.

 

This process is enhanced by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which evolves around the Central or Sub-Saharan Area of Africa. Most of the time, this ‘30-60-days’ System brings Floods or Heavy Rains accompanied by Thunder, Lightning and Heat.

 

So, the Intersection or Fusion of the MJO, ITCZ, SETW and ACC is apparent here. No doubt, this process causes Instability of the Weather in the whole region. The passing of Cold or Warm Fronts from West to East of the Southern Indian Ocean, also take place. Moreover, this is likely to last for a long period-one or two weeks or more.

 

NB: All these discriptions and explanations have been based from observations of the Atmosphere, Clouds, Winds, etc. from the Ground of Mauritius and complemented with the different Satellites Imageries, Data and Information used by the different Meteorological Services of the South-West Indian Ocean.

 

100% Perfect PREDICTION for 2017

 

As stated above, a FLOOD STORM has been influencing the Weather in the South-West Indian Ocean as from 15 January 2017. In fact, indications were already given from the Eye-Observations of Clouds and Atmosphere since 08 January 2017. See the picture. 

 

The Atmospheric Conditions around Mauritius have been giving the impressions of the formation of Cyclones and/or Floods, as explanied above. These conditions are still prevailing with Light-to-Moderate/Above-Moderate Rainfalls in the Mascarene Islands-Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion, including Agalega another dependency of Mauritius. Rains have been falling as from 15 January 2017 in this region. Data and information collected from meteorological services are as follows:       

15-16 January 2017: Mauritius/Grand Bassin-36.6 mm; Nouvelle Découverte-25.2 mm.

Reunion has recorded 115 mm maximum.

16-17 January: Mauritius/Mare Aux Vacoas-53.2 mm; Mon Bois 36.4 mm ; Providence-31.2 mm.

Reunion- 11.5 mm maximum.

17-18 January: Mauritius maximum 19 mm.  Light Rain during 18-19-20 January with 13-9.5 mm. Rodrigues maximum 15 mm.

20 January/Reunion maximum of 43.6 mm.

21 January/Agalega-115 mm

NB: In Mauritius, Humidity rate has been on the High side: 54% -90%/99% during 15 to 22 January. Temperature varied 320 C to 340 C reaching a peak of 350 C on 19 January. Wind Force has been recorded varying 25-50/60 kph. Reunion saw gusts of 64 kph on 19 January with 20 Celsius lower temperature, most of the time.

 

Météo-France-Réunion (Courtesy)

Météo-France-Réunion, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC), hasbeen issuing regular Advisories to explain the ‘TWALEG de MOUSSON’- Monsoon Trough. This is the Weather Condition describing the Southern Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) which prevails during the Summer Season.

[LE 15/01/2017 A 1200 UTC

ACTIVITE DANS LE DOMAINE TROPICAL: Le bassin est en configuration de Twaleg de Mousson (TM) axé entre 7S et 10S à l'est de 50E. La convection est présente au sein de ce TM, avec une activité modérée renforcée par une bonne convergence de basses couches côté équatorial. Les dernières images satellites et passes Ascat montrent que plusieurs faibles circulations dépressionnaires qui évoluent le long du TM sans marque d'organisation particulière.

 

LE 20/01/2017 A 1200 UTC

ACTIVITE DANS LE DOMAINE TROPICAL:

Le bassin est en configuration de Twaleg de Mousson (TM) axé entre 7 et 11S à l'Est de 70E et entre 8 et 13S au sud-est d'Agalega. L'activité convective bien qu'encore fluctuante, est modérée à forte particulièrement à proximité de 3 zones de rotation privilégiées. Ces dernières sont respectivement situées environ vers 11S/58E, 9S/75E et 8S/84E.

Au cours des 5 prochains jours, le risque de formation d'une tempête tropicale modérée reste modéré au sud d'Agalega à partir de lundi.]

  

Advisory issued on 26 January 2017, indicates another set of Weather prevailing along the ITCZ. It seems to indicate FLOOD and/or Cyclone formation along the Monsoon Trough

[Perturbation Tropicale au Sud de Diego-Garcia :

Depuis ce matin, la convection montre des signes d'organisation et de courbure. Ainsi, depuis 0600Z, une petite bande incurvée dans le quadrant Nord-Ouest de la circulation s'est développée et les images micro-ondes de la nuit montrent un centre de basses couches mieux défini. Les épanchements de Cirrus à la fois côté polaire et équatorial traduisent une bonne divergence d'altitude. En l'absence de données ASCAT complètes, le vent maximal est estimé à 20/25 kt atteignant localement 30kt dans le demi-cercle Sud. La pression centrale est estimée à 1008 hPa. Le centre est localisé vers 11.0S/74.3E à 0900Z….

Au cours des 5 prochains jours, le risque de formation d'une tempête tropicale devient modéré à important au Sud de Diego Garcia.]

 

Other Advisories of Météo-France-Réunion for 27 January 2017 mention about the Formation of a Tropical Depression of small diameter and an evolution into Moderate Tropical Storm within 24 hours. The System was, provisionally, named as 03-20162017. But, it is forecast to fade out thereafter as a Depression and to Dissipate within the next 60 hours. The main reason is that all meteorological conditions do not favour cyclonic formations, in spite of the ENSO, ITCZ, SETW, MJO and ACC.

WTIO31 FMEE 271309

NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/3/20162017

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1008 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

1.B PREVISIONS:

12H: 28/01/2017 00 UTC: 11.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE

24H: 28/01/2017 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

36H: 29/01/2017 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE

48H: 29/01/2017 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE

60H: 30/01/2017 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, ZONE PERTURBEE 72H: 30/01/2017 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, SE DISSIPANT.

On 28 January 2017 Météo-France-Réunion released its advisories, downgrading System 03-20162017:

[WTIO31 FMEE 281222

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/3/20162017 1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 3

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1007 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 20 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT…

1.B PREVISIONS:

12H: 29/01/2017 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, ZONE PERTURBEE

24H: 29/01/2017 12 UTC: 11.2 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, ZONE PERTURBEE

36H: 30/01/2017 00 UTC: 11.3 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX=015 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

48H: 30/01/2017 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX=015 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

60H: 31/01/2017 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX=015 KT, SE DISSIPANT.

 

<Au cours des 5 prochains jours, le risque de formation d'une tempête tropicale est faible au Sud de Diego Garcia.>

 

   

 

One interesting feature of Weather in the South-West Indian Ocean is understandable from the social point of view. Usually, local fresh vegetables and tropical fruits are less quantity-wise and are sold at high prices, during November, December and January. The main reason is that during Summer, there are lots of Rains and series of Cyclones which cause negative impacts on the food security issue. The Summer Seasons of previous years have generated series of Cyclones, Heavy Rains and localized Floods. Refer to the previous article ‘Summer Outlook 2017’, including others and to the Cyclone Tracks of Météo-France-Réunion (Courtesy).

    

    

 

However, it has been noted that these agricutural produces are abundant and are sold at cheaper prices all along these three months. The remarkable reason can, thus, be attributable to the fact that Heavy Rainfalls and Cyclonic Systems have decreased and/or almost non-existent. Refer to the pictures of NOAA/CPC which give some hints.

                  

 

Conclusion

It appears that the El Nino and La Nina Oscillations are at a Neutral Point. So, the Pacific Warm Pool has been evolving in a Cool Phase in the South-West Indian Ocean in November, at the beginning of the Summer Season 2016-2017. The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) seems to be enhanced weakly in December 2016 until 18 January 2017. See NOAA Global SST picture. Click to watch animation. Check it out here: 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_

 

The Intersection or Fusion of the ITCZ, SETW, MJO and ACC is a remarkable process by which Floods, Heavy Rainfalls, Cyclones/Tornadoes are likely to evolve in a disastrous way. If the Zone of Fusion is located in the open Ocean, its impacts may affect ships, fishing vessels and airplanes, including the marine eco-systems. But, in the case of these Weather Phenomena tracking along or near land masses, then Extreme Weather Conditions prevail. Therefore, risks of loss of life, destruction of/and/or damages of property- buildings, houses, public/private infrastructure, agricultural activites, etc become vulnerable.

On one side, Mother Nature seems to play ‘hide and seek’ and on the other, she appears to be gracious to us by not generating Extreme Weather Conditions, in terms of Cyclones/Floods. All these prove the UNCERTIANTIES regarding Cyclone formation in the Southern Indian Ocean for Season 2016-2017. Yet, the Mauritius Meteorological Services issued a Special Weather Bulletin at 17.20 hours on 27 January 2017:

[SPECIAL WEATHER NEWS ISSUED AT 1720 HOURS THIS FRIDAY 27 JANUARY 2017 VALID TILL 2000 HOURS THIS FRIDAY 27 JANUARY 2017.

GENERAL SITUATION:

Our region is under the influence of a rather active sea breeze.

FORECAST:

Cloudy over the whole island with showers which will be moderate at times and accompanied by isolated thunderstorms mainly over the central plateau, to the west and south-west of the island.

Fog patches will also be present.

Weather will improve gradually during the night.

Wind light and variable.

PRECAUTIONS TO BE TAKEN:

1. There will be temporary water accumulations in certain places.

2. Road users are advised to be very cautious.]

Rainfalls within the three hours recorded by the MMS reached a maximum of 84 mm at Beaux Songes, in the West of Mauritius. The other localities were less showered.  

 

However, all these support the views mentioned in earlier article ‘Summer Outlook 2017 :

  1. the 100% Perfect PREDICTION- ‘CARLOS which is the next name in the cyclone list is in the pipeline to form after the second week of January 2017. A FLOOD STORM, too, is preceding this System.’;
  2. fewer formation (only 4) of Cyclones for the current Summer Season;
  3. the Weather Pattern seems to have changed in comparison to preceding years’ and
  4. The monitoring of Water Supply in Mauritius continues with drastic cuts, despite the recent Rains. So, Drought and Heat are likely to proceed.

                                                  

Gallery of Clouds as Observed from the Ground of Mauritius

     

    

Application of Traditional, Indigenous, Local Knowledge and Practices (TILK/P) is a ‘Life-Saving-Tool’. It is recognized by WMO and other International Institutions, as to be Complementary to Scientific Knowledge. Moreover, Numerical Models are not 100% perfect. So, it incumbent that Weather Forecasts should be made by Adopting this component, i.e. Eye-Observation of Clouds from the Ground.

 

It is worhtwhile to say that Cumulus Clouds of all genus, mainly, CUMULONIMBUS Clouds have been invading the sky from the South-East, throughout the periods of Rains, Heat and Winds. High Altitude CIRRUS Clouds and ALTOCUMULUS Clouds at Mid-Level have converged often from different directions-the North-East or the North. All these Eye-Observations from the Ground indicate the approach of  Depressions/Cyclones, Heavy Rains/Floods, Heat, Robust Winds, Frontal Systems and Droughts. The Gallery of Clouds prove all these.

Click picture to Watch VIDEO

 

Remarks and other Suggestions

 It should be noted that, practically, this current FLOOD STORM is showering Rains and generating Winds and Waves mostly in the open sea of this part of the Southern Indian Ocean. Given, that there is no land mass between Rodrigues Island and Western Australia (Longitudes 650 East to 1150 East), no such data/information can be obtained, except from Satellites. Unfortunately, such information and data are surely not being recorded or fed back to the Meteorological Services by the passing aircrafts and ships in this vast zone of Eastern Indian Ocean. The World Meteorological Organization and the Scientific World are requested to fill-in this loophole in Meteorology and Disaster Management, including that of other regions of the Blue Planet.

 

Keep Watch for more.

 

PKANHYE.                         SUNDAY 29 JANUARY 2017

Follow me on and .

Read more: Summer Outlook 2016-2017 South Indian Ocean, Prediction and Cyclone Names;

                            Flood Storm (92 S INVEST) Phenomenon in South-West Indian Ocean Basin;

                            2ND Flood Storm for Season 2015-2016 in South Indian Ocean-Phenomenal System.;

                            Fusion of Atmospheric Systems and Heavy Rainfalls in Southern Indian Ocean-December 2014;   

                              Thunderbolts Trigger Heavy Rain and Panic in Mauritius-Loopholes of Local Meteorological Services and etc.

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