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Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

 

ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone

(03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-

4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

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CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017- S-W Indian Ocean,

another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 

DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

 

 

 

FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

 

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

 

LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

 

 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

 

 

 

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

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Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 

 

Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

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Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean

 

 

 

 

WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016

 

 

  

 

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

 

  

 

 Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

 

 

 

 Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

  

 

 

 

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CARLOS Severe Tropical Storm: 100% Perfect PREDICTION-

Poor Forecasts, Monitoring and Disaster Resilience

(Brief Assessment. Follow updates patiently) 

                                      

Finally, CARLOS Storm has taken birth in the zone as Predicted since 07-11 January 2017 and was baptised by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) at 4.15 pm on Saturday 04 February. It was initially located, as a Tropical Disturbance and Depression at Latitude 16.50 South and Longitude 56.60 East, 415 km North of Mauritius. It was moving South South-East at 10 kph. Its rapid evolution and intensification tend to delude local, regional and international meteorologists and scientists. Lots of uncertainties arise as to its behaviour, given: its tiny size, the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) environment varying between 280-300 Celsius and the probable impacts of ITCZ, MJO, SETW and ACC.

 

Cyclone Warning Class I was issued by the MMS at 4.15 pm on Saturday 04 February 2017 and Warning Class II at 4.15 pm on 05 Sunday. Until update, kindly refer to the previous article: FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS Formations 2017.

 PKANHYE.  (First Upload) 6.30 pm SUNDAY 05 FEBRUARY 2017.

 

International Centres 

It is interesting to note that Cyclone CARLOS formed, evolved and intensified in the zone of the South-West Indian Ocean, as PREDICTED in the ‘Summer Outlook 2016-2017’ published on 07-11 January 2017 in this Website. Refer to article: Summer Outlook 2016-2017 South Indian Ocean, Prediction and Cyclone Names.

CARLOS evolved at an almost unprecedented rapid pace. Under such conditions, international, regional and local forecasters required expertise to give appropriate  advisories and alerts. Most of the time they relied much on numerical models, yet there were also hints as to various uncertainties.

 

NOAA/Climate Prediction Center

NOAA/Climate Prediction Center issued its regular forecasts for all oceans/continents. It has been noted, however, that uncertianties also prevailed therein. The ‘Monsoon Trough’ and Cyclone formations have not been indicated for period 18-31 January 2017 regarding the South-West Indian Ocean. Whereas factually, there have been lots of episodes of Precipitations and Cyclones, including Extreme Weather Conditions, during the previous years. Refer to the series of cyclone tracks of last Summer Seasons, provided by METEO-FRANCE in article-FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS Formations 2017 or in Summer Outlook 2016-2017 South Indian Ocean, Prediction and Cyclone Names.  See also the trail of chronological articles on the cyclones, heavy rainfalls and floods of preceding years.

NB: There is no update regarding Cyclone CARLOS, in spite of its weakening and/or re-intensification until now. See pictures. The question are: whether the Models are outdated or there are no records on Climate and Weather in this part of the Blue Marble.

             

(Uploaded 9.15 pm Thursday 09 February 2017) 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has been indicating about the formation, evolution and intensifications of CARLOS, as from 31 January 2017. Since it was still a Tropical Disturbance, JTWC named it as 92 S INVEST and subsequently, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S. As mentioned above, this Cyclonic System evolved and intensifies rather rapidly. Refer to the pictures.

 

JTWC started issuing its Advisories as from 31 January 2017:

[ABIO10 PGTW 311800 

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.8S 55.1E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION...THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A PRIMARILY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POOR UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE SOUTH, BUT OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 C).

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE DISTURBANCE STAYING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH ALL BUT THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTING THAT TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR IN THE 72-96 HOUR TIMEFRAME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.]

JTWC continued issuing its Advisories on 04 February 2017 (local Time):

[ABIO10 PGTW 031800

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 55.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 55.5E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION...

ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.]

The Cyclone Warning Advisories of JTWC for 04 Feb. 2017:

<<WTXS31 PGTW 041500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001

REMARKS:

041500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 56.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS... 

AFTER TAU 36, AS THE SYSTEM FURTHER DEEPENS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY ASSUME STEERING AND DEFLECT TC 04S SOUTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS), WILL STOKE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO 65 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST.

THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED AND TIMING OFRECURVATURE. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 12 FEET.>>

 

JTWC further Cyclone Warning Advisories of 06 February 2017 are as follows :

<<WTXS31 PGTW 060300

REMARKS:

060300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 57.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...

TC 04S HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS BUILDING WHICH WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...

AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE OUTFLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE RESULTING IN A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR TC 04S...

DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THERE STILL EXISTS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE STEERING SHIFTS, LENDING OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET.>>

 

The JTWC Cyclone Warning Advisories continued on 07 February 2017.

<<WTXS31 PGTW 071500

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 007

REMARKS:

071500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 54.0E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 59 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LA REUNION INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 31 KNOTS. TC 04S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST...

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ENTER A WEAKENING PHASE ONCE AGAIN...

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SLOWING FORWARD MOVEMENT WITH A TURN TO THE WEST EXPECTED... THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 15 FEET.>>

  (UPDATED-10.30 pm FRIDAY 10 FEBRUARY 2017)

     

         

 

Météo-France-Réunion

Météo-France-Réunion (MFR), which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) as per the WMO, released its Advisories Dynamically since the formation of the Tropical Disturbance. The main focus, as noticed, of RSMC has been the prevailing Monsoon Trough along the South-West and the Central Zone of the Tropic of Capricorn of the Indian Ocean.

The Advisories of MFR can be considered as from 30 January 2017 with the existence of the Monsoon Trough. A zone of Low Pressure evolved therein and was named as Perturbation tropicale n°03-20162017, which phased out before the birth of CARLOS. 

[AWIO21 FMEE 301213

Le bassin reste en configuration de Talweg de Mousson (TM) à l'Est de 50E, axé vers 12S à l'ouest de 70E et vers 10S plus à l'est. L'activité convective associée reste à proximité de la Perturbation tropicale n°03-20162017 ainsi qu'au sein d'une zone de basses pressions persistante à proximité d'Agaléga. Ailleurs, l'activité orageuse est localement bien marquée sur le nord du canal du Mozambique notamment sur l'île de Mayotte.]       

  

CARLOS was identified on 03 February 2017, when it formed as a Tropical Disturbance and was named by MFR as Zone Perturbée n°4-20162017. The System evolved RAPIDLY and was subsequently reached the Status of Tropical Depression and of Moderate Tropical Storm.

The Advisories of MFR, regarding the evolution of 4-20162017 was clearly stated. The System was expected to be a Tropical Disturbance during 04 February (within the 24 hours thereon) and to a Depression on early 05 February (36 hours thereon) and to Moderate Tropical Storm on same day (48 hours thereon). It would intensify as Severe Tropical Storm on 08 February (120 hours thereon). Yet, the evolutions have been rather at a quicker pace. The different Forecast Tracks prove all these. 

[WTIO31 FMEE 031244

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN: 1/4/20162017 1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 4.

 1.B PREVISIONS:

12H: 04/02/2017 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, PERTURBATION TROPICALE

24H: 04/02/2017 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, PERTURBATION TROPICALE

36H: 05/02/2017 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE

48H: 05/02/2017 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

60H: 06/02/2017 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

72H: 06/02/2017 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

  

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 07/02/2017 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

120H: 08/02/2017 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.]                                                    

   

                   

 
 (Uploaded 5.55 pm SATURDAY 11 FEBRUARY 2017)
 
 

Mauritius Meteorological Services-Poor Forecasts and Monitoring

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has undergone some difficulty in forecasting and monitoring the formation and evolution of CARLOS. A senior meteorologist of MMS stated, through the Mauritius Broadcasting Corporation –the national television and radio station at the evening news of Friday 03 February, that Moderate Rains are expected as from evening of the following Saturday and Heavier by Sunday afternoon. He recommended precautions to be taken by the population. This was based on the Low Pressure which prevailed in the North of Mauritius.

 

The MMS had issued a Special Weather Bulletin at 2.00 pm on Friday 03 February 2017 as follows:

{SPECIAL WEATHER COMMUNIQUE ISSUED AT 1400 HRS ON FRIDAY 03 FEBRUARY 2017. VALID FROM 1600 HRS SATURDAY 04 FEBRUARY UP TO 1600 HRS TUESDAY 07 FEBRUARY 2017.

The low pressure area which was evolving in the vicinity of Agalega has intensified into a tropical disturbance. The system is expected to further intensify into a tropical depression by tomorrow while moving towards the south. On this trajectory, the system will come closer to our region. 

Weather outlook for the coming days:

Active cloud bands associated with the tropical disturbance will influence the weather in Mauritius as from Saturday evening with passing showers which will be moderate at times. The showers will become more frequent and heavier with thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon. 

The wind will gradually strengthen with gusts which may reach 90 km/h in places on Monday. 

Sea will become rough with swells during the week-end.

Ventures at sea are not advised.}

 

In fact, the Tropical Disturbance intensified in a Depression and into Moderate Tropical Storm, was named by the MMS at 4.15 pm and Cyclone Warning Class 1 was inforce as from 4.15 pm Saturday 04 February 2017. This represents a very rare situation wherein a Weather System evolves so Rapidly. It also illustrates that the Climate and Weather Pattern has changed, as mentioned in the previous articles in this Website: 

Besides, Météo-France-Réunion (RSMC) has been alerting the Monsoon Trough (Twaleg de Mousson) and the probabilty of cyclone genesis since January 2017.

 

The MMS released the following alert on Saturday 04 2017:

{Forecast Bulletin - Mauritius
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS I IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
First cyclone bulletin for Mauritius issued at 1615 hours on Saturday 04 February 2017.
The tropical depression which was evolving in the northern vicinity of Mauritius has intensified into a moderate tropical storm this afternoon and has been named 'CARLOS" by the Meteorological Services of Mauritius. 

At 1600 hours moderate tropical storm "CARLOS" was centered in latitude 16.5 degrees south and longitude 56.6 degrees east, that is, at about a distance of 410 kilometers almost to the north of Mauritius. It is moving in a south south easterly direction at about 10 kilometers per hour.

On this trajectory moderate tropical storm 'CARLOS" is approaching Mauritius and is a potential threat.


A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS I IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.


The public is advised to take all preliminary precautions.
The weather will remain cloudy to overcast with scattered showers .The showers will be moderate to heavy  at times with thunderstorms and will be more frequent in the north and over the central plateau causing water accumulation and flooding of rivers and other water courses. The public is advised not to venture in these risky places. 

Foggy patches will be present thus reducing the visibility. Road users are advised to be very cautious.


Wind will blow from the north east 20 to 30 km/h with gusts of the order of 60 km/h strengthening further tomorrow.


Sea will become very rough with northerly swells. The public is strongly advised not to venture at sea.


A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS I IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
}


 

The Director of the Mauritius Meteorological Services, Mr Mungra, explained about CARLOS, live on the MBC TV at 7.30 pm News on Saturday 04 February 2017. He stated that CARLOS Moderate Tropical Storm will pass the closest part of Mauritius at 90 km in the North-West during nigthfall of Monday 06 February.

 

The MMS issued the following:

{Third cyclone bulletin for Mauritius issued at 0415 hours on Sunday 05 February 2017.
The moderate tropical storm 'CARLOS" has intensified during the night into a severe tropical storm and  at 04h00 this morning it was centered in latitude 17.4 degrees south and longitude 56.6 degrees east, that is at about 310 kilometers almost to the north of Mauritius. It is now moving in a general southerly direction at about 09 kilometers per hour.

On this trajectory severe tropical storm 'CARLOS" continues to approach Mauritius and is a potential threat.
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS I IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
}

 

The Cyclone Warning Class (CWC) 1 was maintained during Sunday 05, until at 4.15 pm it was upgraded to CWC 2. By that time, CARLOS was located 310 km North of Mauritius at Latitude 17.40 South and Longitude 56.80 East. Temperature reached 320 Celcius in Port Louis, Humidity was 63-99% and Gusts recorded at Plaisance Airport was 54 kph. Rainfalls were 63.8 mm at Belle Mare; Providence-43.2 mm; Mon Bois-33 mm, mainly.

 

The 6th Cyclone Warning Bulletin (Class 2)  was released on Sunday night:

{Sixth cyclone bulletin for Mauritius issued at 2215 hours on Sunday 05 February 2017.

At 2200 hours today, Severe Tropical Storm 'CARLOS'  was centered near latitude 17.7 degrees South and longitude 57.5 degrees East, that is about 270 km to the North of Mauritius. It is moving in a general South-South-Easterly direction at about 5 km/h. Given the intensity and trajectory of 'CARLOS', a cyclone warning class II is in force in Mauritius. 

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS II IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

The public is advised to complete all the necessary precautions.

The weather will remain cloudy to overcast with scattered showers over the whole island. The showers will be moderate to locally heavy at times as from tonight with isolated thunderstorms. The showers will cause water accumulation and flooding of rivers and other water courses.

The public is advised not to venture in these risky places.  

Fog patches will be present thus reducing the visibility.

Road users are advised to be very cautious.  

Wind will blow from the Eastern sector 30 to 40 km/h with gusts reaching 80 km/h in places, strengthening gradually tomorrow. 

Seas will be very rough with northerly swells. The public is strongly advised not to venture at sea.}

 

The 7th Cyclone Bulletin was published by MMS on 06 Monday morning:

{Seventh cyclone bulletin for Mauritius issued at 0415 hours on Monday 06 February 2017.

Latest satellite observations indicate that Severe Tropical Storm 'CARLOS' has weakened slightly.

At 0400 hours this morning, Severe Tropical Storm 'CARLOS' was centered near latitude 17.8 degrees South and longitude 57.7 degrees East, that is about 230 km to the North of Mauritius. It is moving in a South-Easterly direction at about 6 km/h.

On this trajectory 'CARLOS' continues to approach Mauritius and remains a potential threat for the island. 

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS II REMAINS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.}

The Minister of Education had taken the right decision of keeping all schools: pre-primary, primary and secondary closed on Monday 06. CARLOS was then located at 230 km North of Mauritius, while moving South-East at 6 kph. Airflights- local, regional and international, were delayed, cancelled, postponed and/or rescheduled.

 

Given, that CARLOS had shown signs of Weakenning, the question whether the students would avail of a second day holiday arose by everyone. In that context, the Director of MMS stated live on the radio on Monday afternoon that the possibility of waiving the CWC 2 would be reviewed by the following morning. The main reason that CARLOS started re-intensifying.

 

The CWC 2 was maintained on Tuesday 07 February and Schools were kept closed. Air traffic was also perturbed like on Monday. However, CARLOS did not pass 90 km North-West of Mauritius as stated ny the Director of MMS on the previous Saturday. It started moving North-Westwards at 14 kph. Gusts blowing from the North were recorded at 101 kph in Port Louis. The Temperature decreased to 26.90 Celsius and Humidity was highest: 71-995. Precipitations were as follows: Mare Aux Vacoas-242 mm; Mon Bois-220.8 mm; Nouvelle Decouverte-207.2 mm; Providence-206.8 mm and other locailites 196 mm-47.2 mm.

 

Reunion Island was already on Alert since Monday 06 February. As at 11.00 am Tuesday 07 Precipitations recorded by MFR were as follows:

Belle Combe-409.1 mm; Salazie-215.1 mm; Grand Coude-198.1 mm; Le Colosse-144.1 mm; Bras Panon-137.3 mm ; Le Baril-117 mm ; Cilaos-106.2 mm.

Rainfalls continued in Reunion, causing flooding. Schools were closed and Air traffic, too, were perturbed. The temperature reached 30.90 Celsius and Gusts were at 98 kph.

 

The MMS published the waiving of all Cyclone Warnings at 10.15 am Tuesday 07 February 2017:

{Forecast Bulletin - Mauritius

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

Twelfth and last cyclone bulletin for Mauritius issued at 1015 hours on Tuesday 07 February 2017.

Latest weather observations including satellite imageries indicate that  moderate tropical storm 'CARLOS' has passed at its closest point from Mauritius and is now moving away. The risk of experiencing cyclonic conditions over Mauritius no longer exists.

At 10.00 hours this morning, it was centred in latitude 19.3 degrees South and longitude 55.6 degrees East, that is at about 230 km to the North-West of Mauritius.

It is now moving in a South-West direction at an accelerated speed of about 14 km/h.}

Refer to the Forecast Tracks drawn by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS). They do not reflect those of MFR, which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of the South-West Indian Ocean.

The question is: How far the MMS consults the MFR, whose Advisories are valuable and dynamical. By virtue of the WMO Protocols, this is a mutual contact required for activating the Early Warning Systems for the Protection and Safety of their respective population. Besides, the MMS has no Meteorological Radar as from 2002, as the existing one became obsolete after 25 years service (1977-2002). The MMS has therefore the obligation of providing appropriate and correct information after solid consultation.

The other question arises as to the Numerical Models used by the MMS for the forecasts. It is a fact that such models are not 100% viable, especially that the Climate and Weather Patterns have altered in the South-West Indian Ocean, as stated n previous articles.

(Uploaded at 11.57 am Tuesday 14 February 2017.)

 

Disaster Management -still ‘Ghost-Like’, ‘Re-active’ and ‘Foetus-Like’.  

The Mauritius National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Centre (NDRRMC), bearing such a long appellation with a very short role, is a very 'ILL-CONCEIVED' ‘Country-Driven-Mechanism’. When it was conceived about a decade ago, it was driven by the Secretary to the Cabinet, attached to the Prime Minister’s Office. At a later stage, it was chaired by the Commander of the Special Mobile Force-the para-military unit of Mauritius. It was also under the guidance of a expatriate expert. Yet, it was meeting only on ‘ad hoc’ basis continuing the leagcy of ‘Putting-the-ox-behind-the-cart’ or ‘Ghost-like’.

After the winds of change which prevailed in the general elections of December 2014, Disaster Management became, unfortunately, a simple department under the control of Honourable Dayal-Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development. As mentioned in previous articles, the Minister was sacked by the Prime Minister on allegations of bribery. This happened on the very 23 March 2015, on which day the ‘World Meteorological Day’ was being marked by WMO and its other member countries. Very SAD!

The responsibilty of the Ministry of Environment was conferred to Honourable Alain Wong, who had already the portfolio of Ministry of Civil Service.

Honourable Wong resigned together with ten others, after Deputy Prime Minister Xavier Duval who is also the Leader of PMSD (the major alliance party), left the government in December 2016. Sir Anerood Jugnauth resigned voluntarily as Prime Minister on 23 January 2017 and his son, Honourable Pravind Jugnauth, was sworn as the new PM. Honourable Wong further resigned from PMSD, crossed the floor joining the new government and was appointed as Minister of Social Security by the newly appointed PM.

The Ministry of Environment, Disaster Management and Sustainable Development was conferred to Honourable Etienne Sinatambou. The latter was previously ICT/Mauritius Telecom Department Minister, to whom I had submitted, on 26 October 2016, a document entitled ‘Mauritius Telecom and Disaster Management in Mauritius’.

 

The document was also submitted to Mr Sherry Sing, the CEO of Mauritius Telecom. I explained in that document, amongst others, the concept of Early Warning Systems. I elaborated all the omissions, loopholes and shortcomings in disaster management and in internet and telephony service-providing in Mauritius. It is unconceivable that the population of only 1.3 million, owns about 3 million mobile phones, through which no Disaster Alerts are activated for the Protection and Safety of the citizens. In addition, there are more than 300 television channels which are accessible from Tiny Mauritius (720 sq km).

Besides, I quoted the example of NOAA: “As Hurricane Patricia barrelled down on Mexico last October, forecasters at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) grabbed as many ­satellite images as they could to track its progress. But at least one crucial shot failed to download.”  This was reported by Al Wissman, chief of data management and continuity operations for NOAA’s satellite and information service.

Check it at Nature News published on 13 July 2016:

‘Mobile-phone expansion could disrupt key weather satellites’.

http://www.nature.com/news/mobile-phone-expansion-could-disrupt-key-weather-satellites-1.20249

  

I re-iterated to both of them that “After obtaining a job as CEO and a Ministerial post and thereafter earning thousands of rupees monthly, do not mean that you Mr Sherry Singh and Honourable Sinatamboo are, ‘de facto’, literate in Disaster Management.  You should be well-versed in the several International Protocols and Convention to which Mauritius has adhered. You should seek education to enhance your knowledge on Climate, Weather and Hazards Dynamics.” I further referred to the following: Yokohama Strategy, HFA 2015, MDG, Doha Convention, Sendai Framework, SDG 17, COP 21, etc. 

That is why I stated that the CEO and Minister are paving the way towards a crash- “So, it is crystal clear that your lucrative business is moving towards Calamities, especially probable outbursts and break down of the networks crucial for the Early Warning Systems, the Safety and Protection Mechanisms.” 

It appears that he has, unfortunately, not understood all the remarks and suggestions I had made therein. Disaster Management is a 24/7 and ever going ‘Country-Driven’ Mechanism geared towards ‘Putting-People-First’. It should be a specialized and separate institution for monitoring events beyond cyclones and floods. By letting this institution being carried out by the Cabinet Secretary or by the Commander of the SMF or by a Minister, it defeats the purpose of implementing the Early Warning Systems. Besides, these persons are already overloaded by other tasks. 

The ‘Ghost-Like’ Disaster Management Centre which Minister Sinatambou now controls, convened a meeting with all its stakeholders at 5.45 pm Sunday 05 February 2017 when Cyclone Warning Class 2 was already in force. There was no communique which was released by this ‘Foetus-Like’ national Institution as from Friday afternoon when the MMS had announced Heavy Rainfalls. By Sunday, lots of deaths were recorded and unfortunate events had occurred. See below.

 

On one side, NASA sees “how wind shear was affecting the storm. Earlier the GPM core satellite found heavy rain and towering storms within Tropical Cyclone Carlos.”

Verify here: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/carlos-southern-indian-ocean

View animation on CARLOS from NASA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_D9gmkvUlI0

On the other side, I see that the ‘Foetus-Like’ National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Centre is already in the ‘operation theater’ on the verge of undergoing ABORTION! Besides, neither the Mauritius Meteorological Services nor the NDRRMC makes an Assessment report after a Calamity. 

These state of affairs have been clearly mentioned in the several documents which I have submitted, amongst others, to the Indian Ocean Commission, French Ambassador, UNDP and the European Union who/which are the major agents for financing big big projects in Mauritius. You know well the result!

 


Mauritius-not a Disaster Resilient Society

The main focus of the Early Warning Systems is to prevent loss of life and mitigation of the impacts on livelihood, economic activites, public infrastructure, etc. All these are realizable when all the stakeholders implement the actions as planned in the Global Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, amongst others. It should be recalled that Reunion Island was already on Alert since Friday 03 February 2017. The MMS senior meteorologist informed the population through the television channel regarding Rains, after issuing the Special Weather Bulletin on 03 Friday. Unfortunately, there was a series of deaths and misfortunes which struck the populace:

  1. A 27 years-old member of the Special Mobile Force (para-military unit of Mauritius) lost his life on Friday 03 February 2017, after his car crashed along the wet road in Quartier Militaire locality (what a paradox !);
  2. Another young man died by electrocution while he was ajusting his air conditioner on the outside wall of his home on the same wet day;
  3. A traffic policeman was injured in an accident between a van and a lorry in the motorway on Saturday 04 February. Cyclone Warning Class 1 was already issued and Rainfall reached 41.6 mm;
  4. A woman was reported missing and was fished out dead in the sea at Belle Mare on Sunday 05 February. All these took place before the ‘Ghost-Like’ Disaster Management Centre was assembled. Precipitations were rated to 43.2 mm;                                                                             
  5. On Monday 06 FebruaryCyclone Warning Class 2 was in force with Rains of 39 mm. A speeding bus collided with a small car twisting it all round. Then it killed a poor driver (an Indian expatriate) who was busy changing the wheel of his lorry along the motorway;
  6. Tuesday 07 was marked by the drowning of a man (centenarian-in-waiting), aged 97, at Belle Mare seaside. 242 mm of Precipitations were already recorded and
  7. Another car tumbled in a ditch on same Flooded Tuesday 07 but, luckily, without any casualty.

The Fire and Rescue Service intervened more than a hundred times to pump out water from flooded houses and for securing the environment from fallen trees. One locality was struck by some landslide and about four dozen cictizens were admitted in Refugee centres.

In spite of the considerable Rainfalls, the level of the water in the reservoirs increased to 20 points (48-100% storage capacity), as indicated by the Central Water Authority. However, cut in water supply continues with some flexibility.

 

In addition, the Media:- newspapers, national television, public and private radio stations do not appear to play their crucial role according to the Global Framework Plan. The first example is related after the MMS alerted, on Friday 03 February 2017, about the risks of Precipitations in Mauritius and of the Tropical Depression. One private radio station distorted the news on Saturday morning. The presentor (a lady), mentioned at the 10.00 o’clock news that ‘the Depression does not represent any risk’. 

This type of distortion or of irrelevant information is often broadcast by all the three private radio, including the Mauritius Broadcasting Corporation (MBC) TV and Radio channels. The problem is that either the news is distorted/modified/censored or that the Meteorological Services issue such controvertial information, as mentioned in various articles in this Website. 

The second example is: ‘Best Fm Radio’ is one of the several stations of the MBC. One lady presentor released the news regarding the ‘Cyclone Warning Class 1’ at 5.00 am on Sunday 05 February 2017. Usually, there is a gingle specially tuned for releasing a cyclone warning. This is done before and after the Warning is broadcast. In addition, the Warning is read in 4 different languages. On that Sunday morning, she broadcasted directly the Warning in English language then the gingle was heard. Then the French version was read and the gingle followed again. No versions in Kreol language and in Hindustani were announced. All the radio stations (private and national), including the MBC TV, offer 24/7 programmes. Were the lady presenter and newscaster SNORRING on that Sunday? 

The third example is: the same ‘Best Fm Radio’ released the cyclone warning in the correct format at the 7.00 o’clock news. Unfortunately, the presenter (another lady) started the first hindustani song-“Aaj mawsam bara beiman hai”. This song segment when translated in English language means “Today the Weather is very Treacherous (or is not gracious)”. 

The fourth example goes to: ‘Top Fm Radio’, one of the three private radio stations, started its song programme in the morning of Sunday 05 February 2017 by mentioning the same song mentioned above. These unscrupulous ‘grass-hopper-presenters’ forget that Motherland Mauritius is already facing water shortage, as stated above. 

I had protested against the MBC in 2012 when I noticed such type of song being played at a time when Droughts were seriously affecting agriculture, farming and reservoirs whose storage capacity was barely at 25%. After the complaint, this particular song was removed from the playlist for a few months. But, the scenario repeated afterwards. This is the usual pattern and mindset since more than five years or more. How can you blame Mother Nature for showering rains? The MBC continues to offer CATWALK while presenting Weather Bulletins! Very Horrible, is n’t it? 

The question is: How far the population of Mauritius, including the media, policy makers and institutions have adapted to the effects of disasters? There is no basic programme of educating the public regarding ‘Awareness, Preparedness, Mitigation and Adaptation’ in face of dozens of risks which are looming around the Ocean, on the ground and in the Atmosphere.  Only a few ill-concieved simulation exercises are carried out. Moreover, the ‘World Meteorological Day- 23 March’ and ‘13 October Disaster Reduction Day’ are not marked, except a few sporadic ones. That is why I use to state, through the various articles, that the Policy Makers are ‘illiterate in disaster management’. It is conclusive that Mauritius is not a Disaster Resilient Society.

 

All these loopholes, shortcomings and omissions are giving me the Green Light to leave Motherland Mauritus and to serve another land. This is already in the pipeline! Yes! Keep watch.

 

CONCLUSION

The formation, evolution and passage of Severe Tropical Cyclone CARLOS illustrate another 100% Perfect Prediction as made in articles- Summer Outlook 2016-2017 and FLOOD STORM 100% Perfect PREDICTION. See the following: 

ü  “Cyclonic Systems are Predicted to cause impacts as from January 2017, because the Weather Pattern seems to have changed in comparison to preceding years”; 

ü  “There is High Confidence as to the first Systems for 2017 will form in the Mozambique Channel and/or Madagascar”; 

ü  “NB: CARLOS which is the next name in the cyclone list is in the pipeline to form after the second week of January 2017. A FLOOD STORM, too, is preceding this System”; 

ü  “The FLOOD STORM in the context of the South-Indian Ocean is associated with Heat, Winds and Rains of cyclonic nature. Most of the time it is of Light-to-Moderate-to-Heavy Intensity giving the impression of being charateristically either a Cyclone and/or a Flood/Heavy Rainfall”and 

ü  “Météo-France-Réunion, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC), has been issuing regular Advisories to explain the ‘TWALEG de MOUSSON’- Monsoon Trough. This is the Weather Condition describing the Southern Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) which prevails during the Summer Season.” 

 

In fact, apart from Cyclone ABELA (17-19 July 2016) all the following three cyclones: BRANSBY (05-07 October 2016), CARLOS (04-07 February 2017) and recent DINEO (13 February 2017) have formed and evolved in the Zone of Mozambique Channel and/or Madagascar, as PREDICTED on 07-11 January 2017.

The MMS has different version, as stated in previous articles.  Météo-France-Réunion (MFR), on the contrary, indicated that it has ‘Below Normal’ (Normale à Inferieure) confidence of Cyclone Genesis in the West of Southern Indian Ocean (Zone Ouest). See picture.

 

FLOOD STORM which prevailed during the third week of February 2017 certifies further the PREDICTION of 07-11 January last. CARLOS did not make any landfall though it passed very near to Mauritius, Reunion and Madgascar. However, it triggered lots of Precipitations and flooding: 242.2 mm and 409 mm in Mauritius and Reunion respectively. The current Rainfalls are attributable to the remnants of ex-CARLOS which is dissolving in the South Pole and to a slight extent to DINEO which is making landfall in Mozambique and Southern Africa. 

 

According to NASA: “On Feb. 5, the GPM satellite found rain falling at a rate of over 100 mm (3.9 inches) per hour in intense feeder bands converging into Carlos' northeastern side.” Verify here:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_D9gmkvUlI0

 

The concept of Flood Storm is still valid. The Tropical Depression, which evolved during 24-29 January 2017 in the North-West of Australia, is another example proving that the Climate and Weather Patterns have changed in the Southern Indian Ocean. The System was rather seen by NASA as a Frontal System than a potential cyclone. Besides, ABOM did not name the Tropical Disturbance.

 

NASA's IMERG rainfall product provided an analysis during the period from January 24 to 26, 2017.. Rainfall totals of close to 300 mm (11.8 inches) were estimated along Australia's northwest coast.”See the animation from NASA.

https://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/tc03s_imerg_24-29_january_2017.mpg. 

 

Everyone feels some degree of heat wave and of some discomfort during the passage of a cyclone. Contrarily, Observations of the atmosphere from the ground of Mauritius have shown that most of the time the Temperature dropped from 340 Celsius to 260 Celsius CARLOS. In addition, the wind has been carrying all the clouds of the Troposphere-Low, Mid and High Altitudes from the North or North-East as from 03 to 13 February 2017. This process has contributed to the cooling sensation felt.

 

Besides, Météo-France-Réunion, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC), has been issuing regular Advisories to explain the ‘TWALEG de MOUSSON’- Monsoon Trough. This is the Weather Condition describing the Southern Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) which prevails during the Summer Season. In other words, January, February to oncoming March is the usual period when the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) prevails. All these also prove that Severe Tropical Cyclone CARLOS was another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

                                                                                              

Remarks

The Forecast Track suggested by this Website shows that CARLOS, after nearing Mauritius on Tueday 07 February, would move towards the West and intensify therefrom. But it would not cross Madagascar, mainly, because of the quadruple intersection of ITCZ, MJO, SETD and ACC. Furthermore the Cyclone would revert towards the South-East by passing through the North of Mauritius. Fortunately, CARLOS tracked towards the SE after rounding Reunion Island- a lucky escape. See picture on the right.

 

OBSERVATIONS of Clouds from the Ground of Mauritius

                   

                    

Click to Watch VIDEO now


BEWARE OF THE ‘IDES OF MARCH’!

FLOODS and Cyclones are awaited.

Keep watch for Severe Tropical Cyclone DINEO soon.

 

PKANHYE.                      FRIDAY 17 FEBRUARY 2017.

Follow me on and .

Read more: Flood Storm -100%Perfect PREDICTION Cyclone CARLOS in Pipeline;

                  VIDEO- FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS Formations 2017;

                        Summer Outlook 2016-2017 South Indian Ocean, Prediction and Cyclone Names;

                        PHENOMENAL BRANSBY- First Sub-Tropical Depression for Summer Season 2016-2017-South Indian Ocean;

                                 ABELA Cyclone of South Indian Ocean in Formation-Winter Phenomenon;

                                 FANTALA Very Intense Tropical Cyclone-Record Breaker Scientific Loopholes, But Best Prediction

                                  Flood Storm (92 S INVEST) Phenomenon in South-West Indian Ocean Basin;

                                  Fusion of Atmospheric Systems and Heavy Rainfalls in Southern Indian Ocean-December 2014, ETC.                         

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