Monday, 18 June 2018

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  Kilauea Hawaii

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World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

 

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

 

ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone

(03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-

4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

      Watch MMS LIVE

 

 

 

 

CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017- S-W Indian Ocean,

another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 

DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

 

 

 

FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

 

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

 

LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

 

 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

 

 

 

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

   Mission in Mauritius.

 

 

Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 

 

Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

      Live with NOAA.

 

 

 

 

 

Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean

 

 

 

 

WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016

 

 

  

 

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

 

  

 

 Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

 

 

 

 Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

  

 

 

 

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 ENAWO 3rd Cyclone for 2017 South Indian Ocean-

Forming in Same Zone as PREDICTED in January 2017-

4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION for Season 2016-2017

The Climate and Weather Patterns in the Southern Indian Ocean are under an unprecedented Dynamism. After the two first Cyclones for year 2017-CARLOS (04-07 February 2017) and DINEO (13-15 February 2017), the zone around Madagascar and Mozambique Channel seems to be the same birthplace of ENAWO. On one side, Observations of the Atmosphere and of the Clouds from the Ground of Mauritius indicate the approach of another Cyclone and/or Flood Storm. While on the other hand, Météo-France-Réunion, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of South Indian Ocean Basin, is indicating Cyclone Genesis in the Monsoon Trough (Twaleg de Mousson). Read moreSummer Outlook 2016-2017 South Indian Ocean, Prediction and Cyclone Names.  (Watch Video below).

 

     

PKANHYE.              11.25 pm MONDAY 27 FEBRUARY 2017. 

International and Regional Centres

Loopholes and shortcomings continue to prevail in the applications of only Numerical Models in the Scientific Forecasts of Climate and Weather Systems. It is now or never to adopt Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices including Observations of Clouds and of the Atmosphere from the Ground as a complementary component in the Early Warning Systems. These are ‘Life-Saving-Tools’. The episodes mentioned below are vivid examples.  

    

The ‘IDES of MARCH’ are in the Pipeline! 

    

Click picture to Watch live & Click Icon >> for animations.

(Updated at 10.20 pm WEDNESDAY 01 MARCH 2017)

********************************

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) issued the following at 5.00 am 03 March 2017: 

[Forecast Bulletin - Mauritius

WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 05H00 THIS FRIDAY 03 MARCH 2017.

GENERAL SITUATION: 

(A) A moderate and slightly perturbed airstream is flowing over our region. 

(B) At 0400 hours this morning, the tropical depression was centered in latitude 12.1 degrees South and longitude 57.9 degrees East, at about 870 km to the North of Mauritius. It is moving in a general Westerly direction at about 20 km/h.]

The MMS has issued a Special Weather Bulletin at 10.00 am Friday 03 March 2017 as follows:

[Special Weather Bulletin

Fri, Mar 3, 2017

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  ENAWO

The tropical depression which was evolving to the south of Agalega has intesified into a Moderate Tropical Storm.

It has been named ENAWO by the Mauritius Meteorological Services this Friday 03 March 2017 at 10h00.]

Check it out CLICK HERE http://metservice.intnet.mu/warning-bulletin-special-weather.php

The MMS released another Weather Bulletin at 11. 40 am 03 March 2017:

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 11H40 THIS FRIDAY 03 MARCH 2017.

[At 10h00 hrs Moderate Tropical Storm "ENAWO" was centered in latitude 12.7 degrees and 57.0 degrees East, that is at about 825 km to the North of Mauritius.

It is moving in a general West South Westerly direction at about 20 km/h.]

 

 Remarks: 

ENAWO is another 100% Perfect PREDICTION made since 07-11 January 2017 in article Summer Outlook 2016-2017:

In light of all the parametres mentioned above, Predicted Change in Climate and Weather Pattern stated earlier and according to Observations from the Ground around Mauritius, ONLY 4 Cyclone formations are Predicted for the South Indian Ocean Season 2016-2017. January 2017 will be Hot and Drought will continue to prevail. The same scenario is Predicted for February. However, March, which is the peak of the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System, is Predicted to offer scenarios of Extreme Weather Conditions with Floods coupled with Disastrous Cyclones. The months of April and May will, exceptionally, prolong these Natural Events.

There is High Confidence as to the first Systems for 2017 will form in the Mozambique Channel and/or Madagascar. Persitent Heat, Humidity and Bands of Alto and Cumulus Clouds moving from the North-East and East propelled by the South-East Trade Winds are indicative of this weather scenario.

 

 Moreover, there is another System-‘Monsoon Trough’ which is moving behind ENAWO. This is Highly likely to cause further intensification and/or a FUJIWARA Effect, thereby triggering FLOODS and Disastrous Cyclonic System. Besides, the oncoming Week-end is forecast to be under showers in Mauritius. See NRL/JTWC picture. 

The ‘IDES of MARCH’ are in the Pipeline! 

CLICK here to Verify LIVE

 (UPDATED: 11.30 am FRIDAY 03 MARCH 2017)

********************************************** 

Early Warning Systems and Scientific Knowledge

Geostationary and Polar Orbiting Satellites administered by NASA, NOAA, JAXA, ISRO, ESA, EUMETSAT, etc. track clouds, smokes, fires, floods, cyclones, tornadoes, hurricanes, anti-cyclones, snowfalls, icebergs and lots of other items identified on/in oceans, landmasses and atmosphere. All these are carried out by making use of Sensors, Cameras, Radars, Instruments, Equipment, Tools and Devices of sophsticated nature. These give Real-Time imageries, pictures, data and information which are provided to, mainly, land based stations and centres. As far as our region is concerned, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) of the US are the first recepients and Advisories Centres. 

Scientists, meteorologists and researchers who work in these centres, handle all the data and bits of information thereon received. They decode, interprete, encode and issue alerts, warnings, advisories and bulletins in which all the parametres/ingredients are mentioned: temperature, height, distance, wind- force, direction and speed, intensity, forecast tracks, convections, troughs, sea surface temperature, etc. They also rely on Numerical Models, which are known not to be perfect. 

All the subsequent Advisories are accessible to every meteorological station, institution, department and centre found in all corners of this Blue Planet. The public, too, has access thereto. All these data and information are provided relentlessly and almost freely for the Securitiy and Protection of Mankind. These intenational centres and teams who work out such crucial information, merrit our gratitude for the execution of their wonderful tasks. 

It is then, the Mission Statement and sacred duty of the world-wide Meteorological Centres/Stations (191) to disseminate such data and information as ‘Life-Saving-Tools’ in the Early Warnng Systems (EWS). So, the populations of each country are eligible for receiving such warnings, alerts and bulletins on a Real-Time’ basis. The main objective is to ‘Save Lives’ and to mitigate the probable loss of economic activity, livelihood and material property, etc. 

Early Warning Systems and Traditional Knowldege

Traditional Knowldege is the oldest science discovered, developped and enhanced my Human Creatures. This is a very vast field of knowledge spread across almost all activities of Mankind. Today, such capacity is summarily classified as Traditional, Indigenous, Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P). As far as the identifications of Natural Calamities are concerned, creatures make use of their five Senses: eyes, nose, tongue, ears and touch. In fact, all creatures on land, in oceans and in the sky are harnessed with such capacity. But, Mankind is endowed with an addtitonal Faculty-the SIXTH sense. 

So, droughts, heat, temperature, wind force, direction and speed, cyclones, floods, snowfalls, tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanic ereuptions, fires, etc. can also be identified by any Human Being, who is supposed to be more capable than animals. It is a question of natural instinct, interpretation and experience. 

As far as Climate, Weather and Hydrology are concerned, any Hazard related to these can be detected. Therefore, tracking of Clouds from the ground, Observations of the atmosphere and of the environment, trigger lots of data and information. These can be decoded, interpreted, encoded and alerts disseminated for the Safety and Protection of every creature. Models can also be built depending on the Faculty and experience of any individual. Long, medium and short term Forecasts can also be made. There are lots of such  examples stated in the more than 120 articles and over 15 videos uploaded in this website. See Gallery Video here. 

The UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) has highlighted Traditonal, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILKP). The example cited is that of the British school girl who saved the life of a hundred persons in a tourist resort in Thailand during the Deadly Tsunami of 26 December 2004. She had acquired Traditional Knowledge at school about the signs of the ‘turbulent sea and loud noise of the approaching Tsunami waves.

Furthermore, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 also advocates the use of Traditional Knowledge. 

The World Meteorological Organization(WMO) has given the Green Light to consider: TILK/P and Observations of Clouds from the Ground: 

  •   as a Life-Saving-Tool’ in the Early Warning Systems (EWS) and
  •   as to be Complementary component with Scientific Forecasts of Natural Hazards. 

All these have been possible during my contacts with the WMO Head Quarters, Geneva done since 28 March 2013, just two days before the Mega/Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013 in Mauritius. As a result, WMO is reviving the International Cloud Atlas, first produced in 1803 and which has become obsolete. This task has been entrusted to Hong Kong Observatory for a new version. 

Besides, the World Meteorological Day of 23 March 2017 will be marked with the theme: ‘Understanding Clouds’.

Clouds are classified in three main Levels-Low, Mid and High. WMO also mentions: 

The International Cloud Atlas currently recognizes ten basic cloud “genera,” which are defined according to where in the sky they form and their approximate appearance.'

Verify here: https://public.wmo.int/en/WorldMetDay2017/classifying-clouds        

 

Observations of CLOUDS and of the Atmosphere from the Ground of Mauritius indicate that ENAWO Moderate Tropical Storm will intensify into Very Intense Tropical Cyclone far more Disastrous than FANTALA-the Record Breaker (12-25 April 2016).

Mother Nature is signalling the approach of Extreme Weather Conditions continuously since 24 February 2017. Compare and contrast the picture taken during FANTALA and that of ENAWO this afternoon.       

All these prove that ENAWO will cause impacts all along its Track from South of Agalega until Madagascar, Comoros, Mozambique Channel and the Mascarene Islands. The Forecast Track will resemble that of FANTALA. Keep watch until tomorrow. Refer to article: FANTALA Very Intense Tropical Cyclone-Record Breaker Scientific Loopholes, But Best Prediction. 

The application of Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) is considered as being a component in the Early Warning Systems (EWS). It is a ‘Life-Saving-Tool’ an is also Complementary to Scientific Forecasts of Natural Hazards. 

Observation of Clouds and of Atmosphere from the Ground and TILK/P

I have mentioned to WMO, since 2015, that I will construct the Cloud Atlas of the South-West Indian Ocean. It is almost done, but the photos are scattered, for the time being, in the different articles published in this Website as from November 2015. So, all Clouds have been named according to the Classifications made by the WMO. See the Clouds as Observed from the Ground of Mauritius during the formation and passage of this Extreme Weather Conditions generated by ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone. It should be noted that each country has its own shape and complexion of Clouds of the same 'GENERA'.

  

Rainfalls, Temperature, Humidity and Wind recorded (briefly).

Friday 03 March 2017-St. Brandon-28.3 mm; Agalega-45 mm.

Mauritius:

Sunday 05 March-maximum 20.6 mm.

Monday 06 March-maximum-30.4 mm.

Tuesday 07 March maximum 71 mm.

Temperature Maximum 34.10 Celsius; Humidity 65-99%; Wind force maximum 72 kph.

Reunion:

Monday 06 March-Rainfalls maximum 64.5 mm; Temperature maximum 30.60 Celsius; Wind force-72 kph.

Prediction of ENAWO based on Scientific and Traditional Knowledge

There are two striking features regarding the formation of ENAWO:

  1. the slow intensification, as compared to CARLOS and DINEO which were very rapid and
  2. the origin. 

The El Nino carrying Heat from West Pacific shifts to the Indian Ocean, along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), as from South-East Asia which is the Window or Outlet for this movement, in the context of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) System. It has been observed that the Bands of Clouds have made a progressive and slow track from the Tropic of Cancer into the Tropic of Capricorn, mainly from South of India and Sri Lanka. While, traditionally, this process has been observed to occur mostly as from Northern Australia. In other words, this also proves that the Climate and Weather Systems have undergone some change, as mention in the ‘Summer Outlook 2016-2017’. These can be verified in the new format of JTWC-EUMETSAT footprint shown below. More can be seen in the oncoming Video.

 

One hard-working Gentleman- Mr Patrick Hoareau, is one of the team members who disseminate the Advisories at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). He mentioned, after uploading the JTWC Satellite Image in his Facebook page on 27 February 2017, that there was No Suspect Area’ for the Indian Ocean. See picture below. 

I replied to him by stating that I have already identified Cyclone ENAWO as from 24 February 2017 and asked him to keep watch. After uploading the two first pictures found above, I requested him to have a look. The following day 28 February Mr PH requested further contact through Facebook. On 01 March 2017, I explained to him about TILK/P and about Cloud Observations from the Ground. I further elaborated, amongst others, regarding the WMO International Cloud Atlas and its new version. The gentleman was very happy and to my surprise he also uploaded Clouds photos taken from the Ground. He even outclassed mine! He merrits lots of Thanks.         

Thereafter, he continued his usual JTWC Advisories and lots of Satellite Imageries and ENAWO Forecast Tracks. In addition, the Satellite Footprint of EUMETSAT has also changed. It should be noted that METEOSAT 7 is retiring after 1997 and METEOSAT 8 is already anchored since 02 October 2016 to replace itThe objective is to provide this crucial function together with India’s INSAT-3D, at 82°E, China’s FY-2E at 86.5°E and Russia’s Elektro L N2 at 77.8°E in an international, cooperative arrangement’EUMETSAT, FRIDAY, 23 SEPTEMBER 2016.  The pictures below prove all these. 

Although JTWC has been upgrading the Tropical Disturbance (now ENAWO) gradually, despite my information provided. Of course, it is a question of keeping due respect to the JTWC Protocols.

      

              

Besides, I informed him that my Forecast Track will reach Comoros and Mozambique Channel, because I have PREDICTED Extreme Weather Conditions-CYCLONE and FLOODS.

So, the first explanation is that:

  • ENAWO is forecast to revert back like FANTALA (12-25 March 2016) or
  • The Monsson Trough should beget another System- cyclonic or flood.                                                                              

The JTWC has identified other Systems in the Central Indian Ocean and in Australia where Tropical Cyclone BLANCHE has already been Baptised by the Bureau of Meteorology.

 

Besides, Météo-France-Réunion has identified another Cyclone Genesis in the Monsoon Trough near Diego Garcia yesterday. See picture.

        

All these prove that Extreme Weather Conditions-CYCLONES and FLOODS Predicted for March 2017 since January are 100% Virtual. 

Météo-Madagascar and ENAWO apprehended Devastations

Météo-Madagascar issued its Warning as from Sunday 05 March when ENAWO Moderate Tropical Storm was located 698 km North-East-at Latitude 13.6° South and Longitude 56.6° East. The forecast was made as a general concensus like Météo-France-Réunion of a gradual intensification to Severe Tropical Storm within 12 hours, to Tropical Cyclone by Monday 06 March and into Intense Tropical Cyclone by Tuesday 07 March and a final status of a Depression thereafter.

<<TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (ENAWO), ce Dimanche 05-03-2017 à 10h locale

Déplacement : OUEST-SUD-OUEST à 09 Km/h

Pression au centre : 990 HPA

Position : en Mer 698 Km au NORD-EST d'ANTALAHA (13.6°S / 56.6°E)

Zones menacées :

ALERTE VERTE sur DIANA, SOFIA, SAVA, ANALANJIROFO et ATSINANANA.

Les usagers marins sont avisés que la mer deviendra très agitée à partir de ce soir. Le vent se renforcera egalement à partir de dimanche après-midi.

Prévision : position et intensité prévues :

12H: 05/03/2017 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

24H: 05/03/2017 12 UTC: 14.0 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

36H: 06/03/2017 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL

48H: 06/03/2017 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL

60H: 07/03/2017 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE

72H: 07/03/2017 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE.

The latest information show that ENAWO is making Landfall as from the North along the mountainous topography- with a Wind force of more than 200 kph and gusts expected to more than 300 kph. According to one local media, two children have been reported dead by drowning today 07 March.

                        

Latest Rainfall recorded by Météo-Madagascar as at 17.15 hours 08 March 2017 is 215.4 mm and Wind Force is at 112 kph. Click here to Watch Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_eeDbwPxRU&t=74s                  

Solemn Request to International Community

As PREDICTED since 07-11 January 2017, Extreme Weather Conditions for the Month of March 2017 are 100% Perfect (unfortunately). Météo-Madagascar has been rising from the ‘Ashes’ since a few years after almost a decade of politico-socio-economic instability. The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) together with the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the European Union and other Stakeholders are monitoring the Fate of this country which is also preparing for a Pious Easter 2017. 

Latest report from the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) states:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): 320 thousand
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 4
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 231 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is1.0m in Manambia, Madagascar. 

The role of the Disaster Management Centre of Madagascar- Le Bureau National de Gestion des Risques et Catastrophes (BNGRC) is very challenging upon the apparent devastating impacts of Very Intense Tropical Cyclone ENAWO-at seas, land, economic activities, livelihood, farming, agriculture etc. The estimated Ocean Waves generated by dragon-like’ ENAWO is calculated by JTWC to reach 32 feet in heightIt is hoped that other humanitarian organizations: local, regional and international are ready for the Response, Rescue and Rehabillitation Framework Actions.  

CONCLUSION

I submitted my document entitled ‘European Union, International Funds and Disaster Resilience in Mauritius’ to the EU Ambassador in Mauritius, Ms. Marjaana Sall on 29 July 2016. I mentioned about ‘Doomsday’ and the ‘Ides of March’ for which she was requested to be prepared. That was in the context in which I expressed my opinion: ‘Your Excellency, I am not at all happy with the ways in which neither the Policy Makers, nor the Responsible Institutions/ Stakeholders, nor the EU, UNDP/UNFCC, France, India, China, Japan and others are tackling the process of building a Disaster Resilient Society in Mauritius’.

The same sentiment was expressed to ex-French Ambassador, Mr. Laurent Garnier in another document entitled ‘La France, COP 21 et la Gestion des Catastrophes  à Maurice’ submitted in November 2015. Almost the same was stated in document 'La Commission de L'Océan Indien et La Gestion des Catastrophes  àMaurice' handed in person to the office of Secretariat on 29 August 2014. 

Just yesterday 08 March 2017, two coast guards of Mauritius have been under stress when their own boat capsized while rescuing a few drowning swimmers. One swimmer’s dead body has been fished out today. Two other coast guards have been injured and hospitalised today in another episode, while trying to respond to help in which four young citizens had ventured around the sea coast in the west of the island. Unfortunately, three are still missing. These are the impacts of ex-ENAWO which is dissipating and tracking in the South-West of the Indian Ocean.

It means that Sea Swells are inevitable because a cyclonic wind does not only mean mangoes and leaves falling. The meteorological services do issue warnings, yet they also give contradictory information by stating to the media that this or that cyclone will not influence the country. Such irresponsible and unprofessional statements have often been complained against, but in vain and people continue to lose life foolishly. All these prove again that Mauritius is not a Disaster Resilient Society, from head-to-toe.

The PREDICTIONS made on 07-11 January 2017 regarding Extreme Weather Conditions for March and the High Confidence on the Cyclone Genesis near Madagascar/Mozambique Channel, no doubt, illustrate 100% Perfection.

      

      

Its time to Watch Video on ENAWO now. CLICK PICTURE below.

'DOOMSDAY' and 'IDES OF MARCH'have not ended.

(Updated: 2.18 pm FRIDAY 17 MARCH 2017)

 See Latest Report and saddening photos on the Humanitarian Crisis in Madagascar from UN: http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsId=56408#.WNZ8otJ97oI

PKANHYE.  

Keep watch for others.

Follow me on    and VIDEOS.

Until then, Read More: Summer Outlook 2016-2017 South Indian Ocean, Prediction and Cyclone Names;

                                                        DINEO Tropical Cyclone 13-15 February 2017 South-West Indian Ocean- Another 100% Perfect PREDICTION;

                                                        CARLOS Tropical Cyclone 04-07 February 2017 South-West Indian Ocean- 100%Perfect PREDICTION;

                                                         CARLOS Severe Tropical Storm:100% Perfect Prediction- Poor Forecasts, Monitoring and Disaster Resilience;

                                                          Flood Storm -100%Perfect PREDICTION Cyclone CARLOS in Pipeline  and

                                                         FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS Formations 2017.   

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