Friday, 17 August 2018

WATCH ALL VIDEOS HERE

             

     Kilauea Hawaii       

   

World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

 ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

      Watch MMS LIVE

 

 

 

 

CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017- S-W Indian Ocean,

another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 

DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

 

 

 

FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

 

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

 

LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

 

 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

 

 

 

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

   Mission in Mauritius.

 

 

Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 

 

Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

      Live with NOAA.

 

 

 

 

 

Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean

 

 

 

 

WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016

 

 

  

 

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

 

  

 

 Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

 

 

 

 Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

  

 

 

 

CLICK HERE TO WATCH

     ALL VIDEOS 

User Rating: 0 / 5

Star InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar Inactive
 

FERNANDO Twin of ENAWO- Intense Tropical Cyclone-

Another 100% Perfect PREDICTION for South Indian Ocean.

But, Incompetence of Mauritius Meteorological Services.

“March, which is the peak of the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System, is Predicted to offer scenarios of Extreme Weather Conditions with Floods coupled with Disastrous Cyclones.  This abstract from the article published in this Website: Summer Outlook 2016-2017- South Indian Ocean’ is another 100% Perfect PREDICTION made since 07-11 January 2017.

Cyclone FERNANDO is already in formation in Central-South Indian Ocean. While Météo-France-Réunion, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) has been indicating Cyclone Genesis in the Monsoon Trough, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has been upgrading to ‘HIGH’ for the System’. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) is still lingering and mentioning Tropical Depression. Besides, Observations of Clouds and of the Atmosphere around Mauritius confirm the PREDICTION of Extreme Weather Systems.

  

PKANHYE.                      4.50 pm TUESDAY 07 MARCH 2017.

Advisories issued by JTWC indicate that the Tropical Depression, named provisionally by JTWC as Tropical Cyclone (TC) 11 S, is already generating Wind force at  64.82 kph (35 knots). According to the classifications of cyclones a Tropical Depression is a : ‘Tropical disturbance in which the maximum of the average wind speed is estimated to be in the range 28 to 33 knots (51 to 62 km/h, force 7 in the Beaufort scale).’  

NB: According to the 'Classification Of Tropical Cyclones In The South-West Indian Ocean', as published in the website of the Mauritius Meteorological Services, a Moderate Tropical Storm is defined as a: 'Tropical disturbance in which the maximum of the average wind speed is estimated to be in the range 34 to 47 knots (63 to 88 km/h, force 8 or 9 in the Beaufort scale).’

Check it here: http://metservice.intnet.mu/tropical-cyclone/warning-system.php 

Given that the TC 11S or O7-20162017 had already a sustained Wind Force of 64.82 kphthe Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) is bound to name the System as Moderate Tropical Storm FERNANDO.  Moreover, JTWC and Météo-France-Réunion have both been disseminating their forecast tracks since a few days.

JTWC Advisories are as follows:

[A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

(1) AT 081800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 70.1E, APPROXIMATELY 506 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS.]

Other Advisories of JTWC read as-

[WTXS31 PGTW 090900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002//...

REMARKS:

090900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 68.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS SHEARED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION, INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND LINES UP WELL WITH A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 090440Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD ON THE LOW END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 11S HAS UNEXPECTEDLY DRIFTED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS IN PLACE AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING POLEWARD INTO LOWER VWS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 70 KNOTS BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AS THE SOLE WESTWARD OUTLIER. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET.]

   

IMPACTS of TC 11 S

According to the Advisories, it may be considered that TC 11 S or FERNANDO will intensify further, but may evolve as an Extra-Tropical Systems in the two following days. Given, that the TC 11 S is likely to pass very near-about 50-75 km from the East coast of Rodrigues, it will influence the surrounding seas wherein lots of fishing and touristic activities, including air traffic are being carried out. 

Just yesterday 08 March 2017, two coast guards of Mauritius have been under stress when their own boat capsized while rescuing a few drowning swimmers. One swimmer’s dead body has been fished out today. Two other coast guards have been injured and hospitalised today in another episode, while trying to respond to help in which four citizens had ventured around the sea coast in the west of the island. Unfortunately, three are still missing. These are the impacts of ex-ENAWO which is dissipating and tracking in the South-West of the Indian Ocean. 

It means that Sea Swells are inevitable because a cyclonic wind does not only mean mangoes and leaves falling. The meteorological services do issue warnings, yet they also give contradictory information by stating to the media that this or that cyclone will not influence the country. Such irresponsible and unprofessional statements have often been complained against, but in vain and people continue to lose life foolishly. All these prove again that Mauritius is not a Disaster Resilient Society, from head-to-toe. Click picture to watch live. 

(UPDATED: 5.35 pm THURSDAY 09 MARCH 2017)

******************************

It is noteworthy to mention that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued its Advisories at the early hours (Mauritian time) this morning about the further evolution of the Remnants of TC 11 S:

[ ABIO10 PGTW 142230

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/REISSUED/142230Z-151800ZMAR2017...

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 11S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 29.8S 52.4E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 141515Z SSMI IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF A TIGHTLY-WOUND, BUT MERIDIONALLY-ELONGATED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.

THIS AREA IS ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL, WITH AN ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE, BAROCLINIC DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND A TRANSITIONING CORE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE NOTED IN MULTIPLE DATA SOURCES. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD AND TRANSITIONS INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. BECAUSE THIS DISTURBANCE IS ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL AND EXPECTED TO TRANSITION SHORTLY INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.]

(UPDATED: 12.35 pm WEDNESDAY 15 MARCH 2017)

******************************

Météo-France-Réunion

On the other hand, Météo-France-Réunion (MFR), the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) has also been issuing its Advisories continuously and dynamically. The Tropical Disturbance was subsequently named by MFR as 07-20162017 on 06 March 2017. It was at the time when Intense Tropical Cyclone ENAWO had reached the status of Tropical Cyclone after that of Moderate Tropical Storm and that of Intense Tropical Storm.

Advisories of MFR stated that the System 07-20162017 would intensify into Tropical Depression in the following 12 hours and gradually to Moderate Tropical Storm and downgrade as a Depression three days thereafter.

[WTIO31 FMEE 061826  

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/7/20162017

1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 7.

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/03/2017 : DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.1 S / 76.1 E (QUINZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES UN EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1004 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

1.B PREVISIONS:

12H: 07/03/2017 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE

24H: 07/03/2017 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE

36H: 08/03/2017 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

48H: 08/03/2017 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

60H: 09/03/2017 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

72H: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE.

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 10/03/2017 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE

120H: 11/03/2017 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE ]

MFR has indicated Cyclogenesis in the Monsoon Trough southwards of the Mascarene Islands on 12 March 2017. In addition, Forecast Tracks were also drawn. See pictures below.

[WTIO31 FMEE 141244

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/7/20162017

1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (FERNANDO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/03/2017 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.6 S / 52.7 E (VINGT HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST) DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 15 KT.

1.B PREVISIONS:

12H:15/03/2017 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE

24H:15/03/2017 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE

36H:16/03/2017 00 UTC: 37.7 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE

48H:16/03/2017 12 UTC: 42.2 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, SE DISSIPANT.

The general consensus with JTWC/MFR shows that the lingering Tropical Depression would intensify for a short period and dissipate in the Sub-Tropical Zone of the South Indian Ocean. JTWC has been indicating continuously that the system was upgraded to HIGH status. Furthermore, JTWC named it as TC 11S awaiting the MMS to name it as FERNANDO Moderate Tropical Storm given that, the ‘MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS’ (35 Knots=64.82 Kph).

MFR has even been utilizing the name of FERNANDO during its Advisories with the same expectation of JTWC that the MMS would finally ‘break the ice’. See Advisories mentioned above. Unfortunately, the MMS did not make any move to honour the Advisories.

 

Finally, Météo-Madagascar has taken the bold decision to name the lingering Tropical Depression called as TC 11S by JTWC and/or as07/20162017 by Météo-France-Réunion, since 06 March 2017. The naming of the System was notified in the Weather Bulletin issued at 21 hours (22.30 hours Mauritian Time), as soon as it evolved within its Area of Responsibilty (AOR) i.e. Longitudes 350 East to 550 East: 

{Concernant le dernier bulletin émis-

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (FERNANDO), ce Mardi 14-03-2017 à 21h locale-

Déplacement : SUD-SUD-OUEST avec une vitesse de 15 KT

Pression au centre :  993 Hpa

Position : en Mer dans un rayon de 20 MN autour du point 28.6 S / 

52.7 E à 1200 UTC

Vent moyen : 65 Km/h

Rafales : 90 Km/h

Prévision : position et intensité prévues :

A 12HPOUR LE 15/03/2017 A 00 UTC:31.2 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX 35 KT, DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE. 

A 24HPOUR LE 15/03/2017 A 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE.

     

NB : The Mauritius Meteorological Services, according to the WMO Protocol of being the Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (SRTCAC), has the responsibility to name a System so long as it evolves in its Area of Responsibilty (AOR) from Longitude 900 East until Longitude 550 East. Whereas Météo-Madagascar, which is the other Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (SRTCAC), has the same obligation as far as a System evolves in its Area of Responsibility at Longitude 550 East until Longitude 350 East.

****************************************

INCOMPETENCE of the Mauritius Meteorological Services

It is true to say that the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) was following the formation and evolution of the Tropical Disturbance/Depression. It is also noteworthy to mention that it evolved in the Area of Responsibility (AOR) of the MMS; i.e. Longitudes 900 East to 550 East. However, there was no special bulletin which was issued regarding the TD. All information was released in the routine weather bulletins. See below.

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 11H20 THIS TUESDAY 07 MARCH 2017.

The tropical disturbance which was evolving more than 1150 km to the north-east of Rodrigues has intensified into a tropical depression this morning. At 10h00, it was centered in latitudes 15.8 degrees south and longitude 74.4 degrees East. It is moving in a general west-south-westerly direction at about 15 kmph.]

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 16H40 THIS TUESDAY 07 MARCH 2017.

At 1600 hours, the tropical depression was located in latitude 16.0 degre

es South and longitude 73.6 degrees East, that is about 1630 km to the North-Est of Mauritius. It is moving in a general West-South-Westerly direction at about15 km/h. There are indications that the system may continue to intensify further.

Supplementary Information:-

The intense tropical cyclone Enawo is now evolving over the 

Northern part of Madagascar.]

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 04H40 THIS THURSDAY 09 MARCH 2017.

During the night, the tropical depression has shown some signs of intensification and at 0400 hours this morning, it was centered in latitude 15.3 degrees South and longitude 69.8 degrees East, at about 1310 km to the North-East of Mauritius. It is moving in a general Westerly direction at about 08 km/h.]

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 04H55 THIS FRIDAY 10 MARCH 2017.

At 04H00 this morning, the tropical depression was centered in latitude 14.5 degrees South and longitude 69.0 degrees East, that is about 1330 km far to the North-East of Mauritius. It remains quasi-stationary.]

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 04H40 THIS SATURDAY 11 MARCH 2017.

The tropical depression has weakened into a tropical disturbance during the night. At 04.00 hours this morning, the tropical disturbance was centered in la titude 19.0 degrees South and  longitude 68.0 degrees East, at about 1070 km to the East-North-East of Mauritius.It is moving in a  general South South Westerly direction at about 20 km/h.]                                                   

[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 04H20 THIS WEDNESDAY 15 MARCH 2017

Supplementary Information:

The Moderate Tropical Storm 'FERNANDO' which was named yesterday evening by the Meteorological Services of Madagascar has weakened during the night. It is now a post-tropical depression and at 0400 hours this morning, 'FERNANDO' was centered in latitude 30.7 degrees South and longitude 51.7 degrees East at about 780 km to the South-East of Madagascar.] 

Remarks: It is crystal clear that FERNANDO took birth within Longitudes 900 East to 550 East. It has evolved, struggled and ‘required recognition’. The question which can be asked is why POOR MMS was unable to Baptise it, in spite of the series of dynamic Advisories and forecast tracks of the JTWC and MFR?

The Director of the MMS, Mr. Mungra, has been intervening in the media on various recent occasions. On Monday 27 February 2017, he was at the Mauritius Broadcasting Corporation (MBC), the national radio/television station. He did not admit any error on his behalf when he himself had mentioned about a contradictory information that Cyclone CARLOS was weakenning on 06 Ferbuary. In fact, CARLOS was intensifying when Cyclone Warning Class 2 was in force. Similar confusion also occurred during the passing of Cyclone BANSI (12-18 January 2015).

He attended at a private radio station on Monday 13 March 2017. He informed the audience that the Finance Minister had provied a sum of Rs 5m for upgrading some equipment and for training purposes by the help of some foreign experts. He maintained his standpoint that the Weather Forecasts have always been of good standards. He has not at any moment stated about the BLUNDERS so often highlighted both by the public and the media. One professional fisherman complained by asking him through the telephone as to why he had to wait for some long hours waiting for the Advisories of the MMS regarding the fishing sector before he could embark on his fishing campaign?

Besides, the Mauritian government has launched, since December 2014, the Ministry of Ocean Economy for the management of the Exclusive Economic Zone of more than 2m square kilometres in the sea around Mauritius. By not issuing appropriate and timely information Mr. Mungra and his team; 1) violate the Mission Statement of the MMS as per WMO and 2) show their incompetence in promoting sustainable development, amongst others.

The question is why should the upgrading been sought for, if such is really the case? It should be noted that there is no Meteorological Radar since 2002 in Mauritius. The government of Japan has proposed the supply, by 2019, of one Doppler Radar costing Rs 350m. If all forecasts by the MMS are perfect, so he should not accept the delivery of that Doppler.

Another fact is also noteworthy, that the rate of ‘loss of life’ in Mauritius has reached 275% within a lapse of five years: 2008-2013. Just on 08 and 09 March 2017, two citizens were drown-dead and two others are still missing, following the impacts of Intense Tropical Cyclone ENAWO on the ocean waves. Whither is Disaster Resilience?

Mr Mungra replied on another occasion that people who use internet websites to share weather information should not be relied upon, because these cause ‘panic’ in the public. He rediculed himself because it is his MMS which often notoriously causes ‘confusion and panic’ to the policy makers, institutions, school sector and public in general. The most unprofessional remark which he made, was when he stated that Meteorology is not a precise science’. Himself, his colleagues and many others continue to make such insulting and wrong statement. The reason which can be deduced is that they do not try to take up the blame, because of their incompetence.

Whereas, I have often stated in various articles that the Scientific World merrit our credit for their laudable efforts in providing crucial data and information for the Safety and Protection of Mankind. I also state that Meteorology is a precise science’. The advocacy of my ‘Cheval de Bataille’ is that Traditional Knowledge (TIKL/P) is complementary to Scientific Knowledge.

I have submitted various documents to the policy makers, institutions and EU, French Embassy and Indian Ocean Commission in which mentions have been made that the ‘Mauritius Meteorological Services is the worst institution’ followed by the MBC. The main reason put forward is that the MMS has more than a dozen loopholes and shortcomings. These have also been listed in the document sent to the WMO a few years ago.

Mr Mungra is not willing to solve these problems in spite of the request made by WMO (all protocol respected), despite my emails and telephone conversation with him. He should read the news released by the WMO:

‘Currently, well over 10 000 manned and automatic surface weather stations, 1 000 upper-air stations, 7 000 ships, 100 moored and 1 000 drifting buoys, hundreds of weather radars and 3 000 specially equipped commercial aircraft measure key parameters of the atmosphere, land and ocean surface every day. Add to these some 16 meteorological and 50 research satellites to get an idea of the size of the global network for meteorological, hydrological and other geophysical observations. Once collected, observations are quality-controlled, based on technical standards defined by the WMO Instruments.’ 

NASA, NOAA, EUMETSAT, ESA, ISRO, JAXA and others are perfectly right in investing in Satellites, Stations and Researches. The MMS does not appear to maximise their uses. That is why I stated in my document submitted to the EU that the ‘MMS is equivalent to a donkey carrying a cargo of sponge and trying to cross a river notoriously known to be hazardous.’

Observations of Clouds from the Ground of Mauritius 06-18 March 2017.

 

 

NB: All CLOUDS have been named in accordance with the Classifications established by WMO.

Please wait for the Video soon. 

CONCLUSION

The FLOOD STORM of 15-18 January 2017, Intense Tropical Cyclone CARLOS (04-07 February 2017), Tropical Cyclone DINEO (13-15 February 2017), Intense Tropical Cyclone ENAWO (03-08 March 2017) and Moderate Tropical Cyclone FERNANDO (14-15 March 2017) all are the 100% Perfect PREDICTION made in ‘SUMMER OUTLOOK 2016-2017’.

It is noteworthy to say that the first four Weather Events formed near Madagascar and/or Mozambque Channel. FERNANDO is the only one which originated in the Central-South Indian Ocean, so far. However, after some hilarious episodes, it was finally baptised when it reached South-Eastern Madagascar. It was also TWIN of ENAWO as it took birth when the latter was causing disasters in Madagascar.

Besides, the explanation and definition of flood storm mentioned in earlier articles are also true. FERNANDO, a combination of storm and flood, did not make any landfall, luckily. Mauritius is being showered almost everyday during the month of March, which is the peak of the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System. The maximum rain recorded by the MMS, so far, is 85 mm on 13 March and of 40.2 mm on 15 March. This is continuing although moderately for the time being. Keep watch for more.

According to NASA GPM Core Observatory Satellite, the Remnants of FERNANDO  ‘showed intense rainfall still being produced by the low. GPM's Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) data showed that rain was falling at a rate of over 205 mm (8 inches) in a few storms.’  Check it out here:

https://pmm.nasa.gov/extreme-weather/tropical-cyclones-remnants-examined-gpm 

Observations of the atmosphere around the Mascarene Island indicate that FERNANDO is the fourth and last Cyclone as PREDICTED on 07-11 January 2017, unless one is expected until mid-May, the end of Summer Season 2017.

Countries in Sub-Saharan and Western Africa should watch cylogenesis and flood storm formation as the ITCZ and MJO seem to have changed Climate and Weather Patterns there.

It is conclusive that the ‘SUMMER OUTLOOK 2016-2017’ is the BEST of all-MFR, MMS and ABOM, namely: 

  1. ‘Change in Climate and Weather Pattern’;
  2. ‘NB: CARLOS which is the next name in the cyclone list is in the pipeline to form after the second week of January 2017. A FLOOD STORM, too, is preceding this System’;
  3. ‘There is High Confidence as to the first Systems for 2017 will form in the Mozambique Channel and/or near Madagascar’;
  4. ‘March, which is the peak of the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System, is Predicted to offer scenarios of Extreme Weather Conditions with Floods coupled with Disastrous Cyclones’ and
  5. ‘ONLY 4 Cyclone formations are Predicted for the South Indian Ocean Season 2016-2017’.  

Keep Watch for:                             

23 MARCH WORLD METEOROLOGICAL DAY 2017-Understanding Clouds’.

 

(UPDATED: 11.42 pm Wednesday 22 March 2017)

 

PKANHYE. 

Follow me on     and 

 Read more:

Summer Outlook 2016-2017 South Indian Ocean, Prediction and Cyclone Names;

ENAWO 3rd Cyclone for 2017 South Indian Ocean- Forming in Same Zone as PREDICTED in January 2017;

DINEO Tropical Cyclone 13-15 February 2017 South-West Indian Ocean- Another 100% Perfect PREDICTION;

CARLOS Tropical Cyclone 04-07 February 2017 South-West Indian Ocean- 100%Perfect PREDICTION;

Flood Storm -100%Perfect PREDICTION Cyclone CARLOS in Pipeline and others. 

Add comment

Kindly, make your comments related to the topic. Any comment which is irrelevant, illicit, unlawful, immoral or pertaining to hatred to any person in terms of race, colour, sex, religion, opinion or any sort of discrimination will not be allowed and will be subject to prosecution. Marketing and/or advertisement are not permitted.

Security code
Refresh

To regularly receive information from me, please, register your real name and E-mail address. Fictitious ones will be rejected. Marketing & advertisements are not allowed. Thank you.

We have 146 guests and no members online