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Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

 ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

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CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017- S-W Indian Ocean,

another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 

DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

 

 

 

FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

 

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SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

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HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
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 Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

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Winter Approaching Earlier With Rains and

Summer 2016-2017 Departing with Late Showers

(This is the last article on Summer Season 2016-2017

Uploaded from Motherland Mauritius)

The outgoing Summer Season 2016-2017 of the Southern Indian Ocean has been remarkable with ‘Change in Climate and Weather Patterns’, as PREDICTED since 07-11 January 2017. The incoming Winter Season of 2017 seems to ring the ‘Alarum Bell’ with an early entry. Heavy Rainfalls have been recorded in Mauritius and Reunion Islands during this transitional period. The Atmospheric Conditions around the Mascarenes indicate a Wet Winter Season. (Watch Video below).

(Uploaded: 11.30 am SUNDAY 16 APRIL 2017)

Atmospheric Conditions

21-22 March 2017 marked the Equinox- the period when the Solar Energy  is distributed equally and naturally to both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of the Blue Planet. In other words, it is also the transition from Summer to Winter for the Southern Hemisphere and the reverse for the Northern Hemisphere.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9D52aINy4j4

According to the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS), the Summer Season ends on 15 May each year. However, the Atmospheric Conditions, as Observed from the Ground of Mauritius and from Satellite Images, indicate that the Summer Season 2016-2017 is phasing out. The Winter Season has already stepped in the Tropic of Capricorn.

On one hand, the Temperature is varying from a minimum of 190 Celsius to a maximum of 240 Celsius at night. On the other side, the date time Temperature varies between 280 C and 330 C.

However, it is noteworthy to say that Rainfalls were recorded by the MMS, as follows: 31 March 2017- maximum of 74.6 mm and On 07 April 2017-maximum of 36.4 mm.

On 15 April 2017, 105. 8 mm of Rain showered to the maximum. Light Rain persisted afterwards. The Humidity varied from 72 to 99%. Now there is a drop from 52 to 84%. Days have shortened by hours and nights longer. The weather is cool sometimes, but warm at times. The feeling of comfort is sometimes enjoyable, but annoying on other times.

See Clouds as Observed from the Ground of Mauritius. Application of Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) is complementary to Scientific Forecasts of Natural Hazards.

 

Antarctic Circumpolar Current

Winter in the Southern Hemisphere is marked by the prevailing of Anti –Cyclones blowing Cold and Strong Winds from the South Pole, reaching 70-90 kph just like last year. Its   impacts are often disastrous because the Sea Swells and Storm Surge cause erosions of the shores and also dangerous for fishing and tourist industries. The peak of all these are mostly during May to September. Right now, a Cold Front is moving from the South-West. Refer to the pictures.

 

 See live from MMS, Click here.

 

Anti-Cyclones from the South Pole are generated by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). This ACC System moves around the Continent of Antarctica from West to East, thus influencing both the Oceanic and Atmospheric Currents.

Antarctica, the 5th largest continent, is about 14,245,000 km2. Located at the South Pole and at the bottom of Mother Earth, it is the remotest land mass and also the coldest, windiest and driest-0.117mm rain. The Atmosphere is usually very cold, chilly and 98% of its surface is covered with ice reaching 1.9 km in thickness. The Temperature can reach minus 890 Celsius. There is no permanent human settlement, except a few thousands of researchers and scientists who go there for a short time.

The Antarctic Continent is surrounded by three oceans-Indian, Pacific and Atlantic. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) propels the ocean waves and atmospheric currents all around from West to East, that is, clockwise. The ACC Transports 150 million cubic meters of water per second which is equivalent to 100 times the flow of all rivers of the world. There are also zones of Anti-Cyclones and of Low Pressure Systems which circulate around the Antarctica, thereby warming it up and acidifying it. The Anti-Cyclones move from West to East in the anti-clockwise mode and cause instability and Cold Front systems. Eventually, Strong Winds/ Gusts and Ocean High Waves/Surge take place almost in whole of the Tropic of Capricorn.

NB: Last year tremendous Thunderstorms triggered Flash Floods with 125. 2 mm of Rain, as a result of which Schools were closed and electricity power cut.

 

The main feature of this Southern Wind Current is that it tends to move towards the North during its clockwise movement. As such, it ventilates, like the wings of a fan, the Tropic of Capricorn with its cold air. According to my observations made in the Southern Indian Ocean during 2008-2010, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) ‘unlashes its tentacles’ towards the Tropic of Capricorn for a period of 3-5 days. There is also a 3-5 days- time scale between the strong ‘tentacles’. As it is the most vigorous Wind Current of the Blue Marble, it is capable of neutralizing all Weather Systems- Cyclones and Precipitations which evolve along the ITCZ and the MJO especially during the Summer Season. While doing so, there are lots of convection zones and the scenario appears both dangerous and graceful depending on the distance of the Atmospheric Systems and the land masses. From the destructive point of view, the ACC may drag a cyclone pole ward all along the land masses of Madagascar, Reunion, Mauritius and Rodrigues mainly. In the positive scenario, this may occur far from the islands without provoking landfall. Several examples are available during the cyclonic seasons.It is noteworthy to say that Winter Season was noticeable, three decades ago, from the prevailing of the Malgache Wind from the West of Mauritius. Unfortunately, the Malgache Wind has been suppressed by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), as observed. The ACC is the master of Climate and Weather in the South Indian Ocean.

Verify all these here: 

http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/kits/currents/05currents1.html

NB: Intense Tropical Cyclone FANATALA was not only a Record –Breaker in terms of life-span and intensity the South-West Indian Ocean, but was also one for this Website. It was PREDICTED as from 12 April 2016 until 24 April 2016 and the Forecast Track was better than JTWC, Météo-France, Météo-Madagascar and Mauritius Meteorological Services. Refer to article: http://www.kanhye.com/9-climate-weather/103-fantala-very-intense-tropical-cyclone-record-breaker-scientific-loopholes,-but-best-prediction.

 

COMMENTS

So, it is conclusive that the Climate and Weather Patterns have changed this year’, as mentioned in the ‘Summer Outlook 2016-2017’. The Winter Season 2017 seems to be wetter for the Southern Hemisphere.

It is also conclusive that the SUMMER OUTLOOK 2016-2017’ is the BEST of all-MFR, MMS and ABOM, namely:

  1. ‘Change in Climate and Weather Pattern’;
  2. ‘NB: CARLOS which is the next name in the cyclone list is in the pipeline to form after the second week of January 2017. A FLOOD STORM, too, is preceding this System’;
  3. ‘There is High Confidence as to the first Systems for 2017 will form in the Mozambique Channel and/or near Madagascar’;
  4. ‘March, which is the peak of the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System, is Predicted to offer scenarios of Extreme Weather Conditions with Floods coupled with Disastrous Cyclones’ and
  5. ‘ONLY 4 Cyclone formations are Predicted for the South Indian Ocean Season 2016-2017’.  

The Summer Season 2016-2017 is expected to end, officially, by mid-May. It has been marked by one Flood Storm(15-17 January 2017), CARLOS  Tropical Cyclone (04-07 February 2017), DINEOTropical Cyclone (13-15 February 2017), ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (07-09 March 2017) and FERNANDO  Moderate Tropical Cyclone (14-15 March 2017). ENAWO  made landfall in Madagascar tracking along from the North to the South causing Extreme Weather Conditions and humanitarian crisis. All these have been Perfectly PREDICTED since 07-11 January 2017 as mentioned in the 'Summer Outlook 2016-2017'. 

However, the Pacific Ocean and Australia have been and continue to be under the stress of series of Fronts, Low Pressure Systems, and Cyclogenesis. Right now Cyclone MUIFA is evolving near Yap Island in Micronesia located eastwards of Philippines. Darwin, Northwards of Australia, is also in the wake of another cyclone within 48 hours, according to JTWC Advisories dated 26 April 2017.

Southern Indian Ocean seems to be rather calm, except that a certain phenomenon may take birth in the Winter Season, just like Cyclone ABELA (16-20 July 2016).  

Click Photo below to Watch Video on Winter Anti-Cyclone.

Keep watch.

PKANHYE.  (Updated 11.55 am WEDNESDAY 26 APRIL 2017).

Follow me on ,  and Videos.

Read more: Thunder, Lightning and Flood Storm Approaching Rodrigues, Mauritius and Reunion;

                              High Waves Warning South of Mascarene Islands

                             UNDERSTANDING CLOUDS-Theme of World Meteorological Day 23 March 2017;

                             FERNANDO Twin of ENAWO- Intense Tropical Cyclone- Another 100% Perfect PREDICTION;

                             ENAWO 3rd Cyclone for 2017 South Indian Ocean- Forming in Same Zone as PREDICTED in January 2017;

                             DINEO Tropical Cyclone 13-15 February 2017 South-West Indian Ocean- Another 100% Perfect PREDICTION;

                              CARLOS Tropical Cyclone 04-07 February 2017 South-West Indian Ocean- 100%Perfect PREDICTION;

                              FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS Formations 2017;

                              Summer Outlook 2016-2017 South Indian Ocean, Prediction and Cyclone Names;

                               ABELA Cyclone of South Indian Ocean in Formation-Winter Phenomenon;

                              Thunderbolts Trigger Heavy Rain and Panic in Mauritius-Loopholes of Local Meteorological Services, etc. 

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