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MAARUTHA Cyclonic Storm Forecast to Make Landfall

in MYANMAR around Midnight on 16 APRIL 2017.

The Low Pressure located, on 15 April 2017, at Latitude 14.70 North and Longitude 90.50 East, approximately 564 Nautical Miles of Dhaka, Bangladesh, has intensified into a Deep Depression. At 1730 hrs on 15 April 2017, it was located at Latitude 14.3º N and Longitude 90.0ºE, about 340 km West North-West of Maya Bandar (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) and 680 km south-southwest of Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) has moved with a Rapid Speed of 28 kph towards the North-East of Bay of Bengal. 

Owing to its further intensification, it has been named today as MAARUTHA Cyclonic Storm and is tracking towards almost the same direction at 24 kph, for an eventual Landfall. According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), MAARUTHA ‘is likely to move northeastwards and cross Myanmar coast near Sandoway around mid-night of today, the 16 th April 2017’.

CLICK HERE to verify with Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology.

Or CLICK Animation icon here with NOAA or here with IMD.

(Uploaded: 3.16 pm SUNDAY 16 APRIL 2017)

 

JTWC identified a Tropical Disturbance on 14 April 2017, named it as INVEST 92 B and issued the following Advisories:

[INVEST 92B
As of 03:00 UTC Apr 14, 2017:
Location: 9.2°N 86.7°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb

ABIO10 PGTW 140400
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY
:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.5N 87.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA...

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A SHARP TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST INDIA, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND WARM SST (30-32 CELSIUS)...

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.]

 

The JTWC issued other Advisories on 15 April 2017 mentioning a Rapidly Consolidating System within 24 hours. The Sea Surface Temperature around the System has been noted to 31 Degrees Celsius. It is forecast to make landfall in Myanmar (Burma) just before 36 hours and an eventual Dissipation by 48 hours’ time.

[TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001   

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY.

REMARKS:

151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 90.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM SOUTH OF DHAKA, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)...

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND VERY WARM SSTS NEAR 31 CELSIUS. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS.

WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THEREAFTER LIMITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND LANDFALL IS EXPECTED JUST BEFORE TAU 36.

THE SYSTEM WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET.]

***********************

IMD- RSMC

MAARUTHA Cyclonic Strom is the first Cyclone of the Northern Indian Ocean for Season 2017. India Meteorological Department (IMD) is one of the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for Region II Asia. The following are the WMO Member States under its area of responsibility covering sea areas of north Indian Ocean north of equator between 450 E and 1000 E, viz. Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Sultanate of Oman and Thailand.

NB: <<Independent Burma Meteorological Department (BMD) was established on 1 April 1937. International Meteorological Organization (IMO) was established in 1873. Union of Myanmar became member of IMO in January 1938. BMD was re-organized on 23 October 1972 and renamed as Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) in the year 1974.>> Myanmar DMH.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its Advisories on 15 April 2017: 

[Sub: Deep Depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal.

The deep depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal moved further northeastwards with a speed of 28 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 15th April, 2017 over eastcentral Bay of Bengal near Latitude 14.3º N and Longitude 90.0ºE, about 340 km westnorthwest of Maya Bandar (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) and 680 km south-southwest of Kyaukpyu (Myanmar).

The system is most likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It is most likely to move north-northeastwards and cross Myanmar coast between Sittwe and Sandoway (Myanmar) by morning of 17th April 2017. Observed and forecast track positions and intensity of the system are given below. Date/time(IST) Position (lat. ºN/ long. ºE) Maximum sustained surface wind speed (kmph)

Category of cyclonic Disturbance 15.04.2017/1730 14.3/90.1 55-65 gusting to 75

Deep Depression 15.04.2017/2330 15.2/91.0 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm 

16.04.2017/0530 16.1/91.8 70-80 gusting to 90 Cyclonic Storm

16.04.2017/1130 16.9/92.5 70-80 gusting to 90 Cyclonic Storm

16.04.2017/1730 17.7/93.2 65-75 gusting to 85 Cyclonic Storm

17-04-2016/0530 19.4/94.5 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm.

Warning:

(i) Heavy Rainfall Warning: Rainfall at most places with heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely to occur over Andaman Islands during next 12 hrs and isolated heavy rainfalls during subsequent 24 hours.

(ii) Wind warning: Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph would prevail over Andaman Islands and adjoining Sea areas during next 36 hours.

(iii) Sea condition: Sea condition would be very rough along & off Andaman Islands during next 36 hours.

(iv) Fishermen Warning: Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along & off Andaman Islands during next 36 hrs. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast.]

NB: The Sea Surface Temperatures in the Bay of Bengal are varying between 30-320 Celsius. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that India is under the stress of Heat Waves reaching a peak of 460 Celsius and Acute Drought is prevailing in most areas, according to the IMD. On the other side, Australia has been strickened by a series of Cyclones and Peru, Colombia and other zones of South America have too outlived dealy floods.

**********************

DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY (DMH)-MYANMAR

The DMH issued its Weather Bulletin on Saturday 15 April 2017 (original as it is):

{Depression News

Saturday, April 15, 2017 - 09:45

Depression No.1, 2017

15th April, 2017 09:00 MST Today

Depression

            According to the observations at (08:30)hrs M.S.T today, the low pressure area over Southeast Bay of Bengal has intensified into a depression. It is centered at about (250)miles West - Southwest of Coco-Island and (390)miles Southwest of Pathein (Myanmar).  It is forecast to move North – Northeast wards.

The present stage of the depression is coded Orange stage. It is moving towards Myanmar coasts.

 Position of depression, Center pressure and wind

            Depression is located at Latitude (13.0) degree North and Longitude (89.2) degree East, Centre pressure of depression is (1002) hPa and maximum wind speed near the center is (35)miles per hour at (08:30) hrs MST today.

 General caution

            Under the influence of depression rain or thundershowers will be scattered to fairly  widespread in Naypyitaw, Lower Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway, Bago, Yangon, Ayeyarwady and Taninthayi Regions, Shan, Chin, Rakhine, Kayah, Kayin and Mon States with strong wind and isolated heavy fall in Lower Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway, Yangon and Ayeyarwady Regions and Rakhine State during 15th April to 17th  April, 2017. Surface wind speed may reach (25 - 30) m.p.h.

Squalls with moderate to rough sea are likely off and along Myanmar Coasts. Surface wind speed in squalls may reach (35) m.p.h.

Advisory

Trawlers, vessels and ships off and along Myanmar Coasts are advised to avert in condition of depression.}

Verify here:http://www.dmh.gov.mm/mtsat-satellite-image%20?page=1

 

DMH Myanmar released another Bulletin on 16.4.2017:

{According to the observations at (10:30)hrs M.S.T today, the low pressure area over inland of Myanmar has weakened. The present stage of the low pressure is coded Green stage. Weather is cloudy over the Andaman Sea and Southeast Bay and partly cloudy elsewhere over the Bay of Bengal.}

Myanmar Daily Weather Report:

{(Issued at 7:00 am on Tuesday 18th April, 2017)

BAY INFERENCE: Weather is partly cloudy to cloudy over the Andaman Sea and Southeast Bay and partly cloudy elsewhere over the Bay of Bengal.

FORECAST VALID UNTIL EVENING OF THE 18th April, 2017: Rain or thundershowers are likely to be scattered in Mandalay, Magway and Taninthayi Regions, Shan, Kayah, Kayin and Mon States and isolated  in Lower Sagaing and Yangon Regions, Chin and Rakhine States. Degree of certainly is (80%). Weather will be partly cloudy in the remaining Regions and States.

STATE OF THE SEA: Squalls with moderate to rough seas are likely at times Deltaic, Gulf of Mottama, off and along Mon-Taninthayi Coasts. Surface wind speed in squalls may reach (35) m.p.h.  Sea will be moderate elsewhere in Myanmar water.}

 

**********************************

NASA

NASA states the following: 

* ‘Maarutha moved toward land quickly on Sunday, without bringing significant storm surge, Al Jazeera reported. Ground photography shows downed power lines. News accounts warn of heavy rain and possible flash floods into Monday, April 17. It is the first named cyclone this year in the northern hemisphere.’

Check it out here: 

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=90040&src=nha 

 https://pmm.nasa.gov/extreme-weather/gpm-sees-tropical-cyclone-maarutha-develop 

 

COMMENTS.

It very important that the National Hydrological and Meteorological Service (NHMS) of each country should make an Assessment Report, after the passing of any Weather Event. The reasons are that it is valid for evaluation of the impacts, reference, guideline and lessons to be learnt by everyone. 

Usually, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMC) of India, France, Australia and others do make such reports. Unfortunately, these do not exist in Mauritius, neither at the Meteorological Services nor at the Disaster Management Centre. Such situations may probably also prevail in other countries. 

The meteorological services are also reminded to utilize resources like Photographs and Videos for bringing more dynamism, especially with the participation of the civil society. Moreover, ‘Understanding Clouds’- the theme of '23 March 2017 World Meteorological Day' is perfect guideline for applying Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices and for Observations of Clouds from the Ground. All these are recognized as to be Complementary to Scientific Forecasts of Natural Calamities and also as ‘Life-Saving-Tools’ in the Early Warning Systems (EWS).

The population of Myanmar should have, surely, not forgotten the Disasters caused by Cyclone NARGIS (02-03 May 2008). The Deadly Cyclone of Category 4, had sustained winds of 210 kilometers per hour (130 miles per hour), according to Unisys Weather. NARGIS was also the first Cyclone for Season 2008Moreover, it triggered heavy rainfalls, floods, landslides and mud flows, even after 17 May 2008. It is likewise not forgettable that the salty sea waters submerged and destroyed the paddy fields, namely in Ayeyarwady region.

Cyclonic Storm MAARUTHA, the first for Season 2017 and of lesser category, seems to have tracked almost along the same trajectory. In addition, MAARUTHA has made an early entry in the Monsoon which starts as from the beginning of May.

NASA reported that NARGIS passed ‘almost directly over YangônExtensive flooding along the coastal plains where the storm passed was clearly seen in satellite imagery taken just after the storm passed. News reports on May 5 stated that at least 10,000 people were killed, and thousands more were missing.’ 

Besides, it is also noteworthy to mention that the Remnants of Cyclones do cause Disastrous Flooding. The first example illustrated by NASA is Cyclone Debbie's Remnants ‘dropped heavy rainfall that caused widespread flooding near the Bay of Plenty on New Zealand's northeastern coast. Thousands of residents needed to be evacuated with extra-tropical cyclone Debbie.’

The second case referred is Tropical Cyclone Cook earlier killed one person and dropped a reported 300 mm (11.8 inches) when it hit New Caledonia first on April 10, 2017. New Zealand's Bay of Plenty and Hawkes Bay on the northeastern coast of the North Island were again the most effected by this second extra-tropical cyclone to hit New Zealand.’ Click here to verify:

https://pmm.nasa.gov/extreme-weather/new-zealands-extreme-rainfall-examined-imerg

Keep watch for more.

PKANHYE.   Final Uploading- 6.58 pm TUESDAY 18 APRIL 2017.  

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