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Central India-Heavy Rains and Cyclonic System Approaching

                (Updated: 4.30 pm Monday 24 July 2017.)


On one hand, the Northern Hemisphere-Tropic of Cancer seems to be under the onslaughts of a series of Cyclonic Systems. While the Atlantic Ocean appears to be rather calm, except one Cyclone, the Weather Systems in the whole Pacific Ocean are very dynamical. NOAA explains: There appears to have been some organization of a coherent MJO signal over the past one to two weeks, though other convective variability continues to make for a complicated picture.”

On the other hand, the South-West Indian Monsoon is triggering Heavy Rainfalls and Flash Floods in which more than 70 people have been reported dead during this week and economic, agricultural and residential sectors have also been seriously affected.


Tropical Storm DON took birth on 17 July 2017 near North Atlantic Ocean and has thereafter weakened. Four Weather Systems have been forming and evolving in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. NOAA Climate Prediction Center states in its 21 July 2017 update:

<<There was a somewhat unexpected flurry of activity over the East Pacific basin during the past week…Hurricane Fernanda weakened as it tracked westward over the central Pacific, and it is forecast to pass north of Hawaii as a post-tropical depression. Tropical Depression Eight dissipated without becoming a named system, while Tropical Storm Greg is forecast to track westward then northwestward over the next five days…Tropical Depression Nine formed on 21 July near 9N/93W, and is forecast to track northwestward while intensifying to hurricane strength by early next week.>>


The Western Pacific Ocean is under the influence of a series of Five other Weather Systems: 99W INVEST, Tropical Depression 08 W- near Vietnam, Tropical Storm (10 W) ROKE- EAST South-East of Hong Kong, Tropical Storm (07 W) NORU and Tropical Storm (09 W) KULAP- North North-East of Wake Island.


NOAA further states that TS NORU and KULAP "were not well forecast at long leads 

in part due to their relatively high latitude. These systems are forecast to interact near 30N over the next several days, with the various dynamical solutions forecasting Noru to become the stronger of the two systems. The recent deterministic runs depict Noru becoming a typhoon and remaining fairly stationary during the next week.”


NB: It seems that there is a possible FUJIWHARA Effect (Fusion) between NORU and KULAP in due course. (This was the reply by JTWC, after my personal interaction this morning.) 

Verify here with NASA: 

 Also watch animation of Super Typhoon NORU with Japan HIMAWARI-8 Satellite: 


Moreover, NOAA CPC mentions the following: “Above-average rainfall is most likely during Week-1 for a northwest to southeast tilted region extending from northern India to the West Pacific.”


In fact, the South-West Monsoon has been triggering Heavy Rainfalls and Flash Floods in various regions of India. More than 60 people have been reported dead in Gujrat, 6 children in other localities and some others in Simla. Many houses and buildings, including food crops, have also undergone damages. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has recorded Precipitation ranging between 120 to 195 mm, mostly in excess on the spatial range. It has forecast continuous Rains for the next 3-4 days.


The Rainfalls recorded by IMD as at 22 July 2017, are mainly as follows:

Maharastra, Bhira- 131mm ; Gujrat, Dahod-82 mm ;

Karnataka, Hulikal-71 mm; Madhiya Pradesh, Vijayraghavgarh-70 mm;

Jharkand, Patratu-66 mm.  

Click here to watch live from IMD Satellite.


In addition, Observations of the Clouds from the Ground as from Jaipur (PINK CITY), Rajasthan indicate that the Rainfalls will continue and there is also the Probability of a Cyclonic System in the zone of Central India soon.


Update: 4.30 pm Monday 24 July 2017.

The Dynamism of the Weather Systems which have developed in the whole of Pacific Ocean since last week, indicate awful impacts on the surroundings. Vietnam is experiencing the effects of Tropical Storm SONCA which is located 188 Nautical Miles in the East North-East. 98 W INVEST seems to have dissipated and 99 W INVEST North of Australia is still evolving. However, NORU has intensified as a Typhoon and Tropical Storm KULAP located Eastwards of NORU is still evolving.


There is a process of Fujiwhara Effect, as expected and indicated by Scientist Patrick Hoareau of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). He replied to my question asked on 22 July 2017, on the probability of any Fujiwhara Effect among the five Weather Systems, given their nearness. He has rightly indicated NORU (TD 07) and KULAP (TD 09).

See the comments of P. Hoareau of JTWC:





NB: See the explanation by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) regarding Fujiwhara Effect:

<<A binary interaction where tropical cyclones within a certain distance (300-750 nm depending on the sizes of the cyclones) of each other begin to rotate about a common midpoint.>>

One Nautical Mile is equivalent to 1.15 miles or 1852 meters. So, 300-750 nm = 345-862.5 miles. 



Moreover, 99E. TEN and 10E. IRWIN have joined Eastern Pacific making 6 Weather Systems in all. 


NB: Tropical Storm SONCA which is influencing Vietnam, has already entered the Area of Responsibility (AOR) of India Meteorological Department (IMD) as the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of this part of Asia.

So, an Alert is required. It seems that the EL NINO will cross the barriers of Heat soon, although NOAA mentions a Neutral Phase since January 2017.


Keep Watch. 


PKANHYE.    Jaipur, Rajasthan, India 4.30 pm MONDAY 24 JULY 2017.

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Read more: MORA Severe Cyclonic Storm-Phenomenal, Churning Monsoon Rains and Early Warning Systems- Not Perfect;

                             Tropical Disturbance Trapped in the South-West Monsoon System. MORA Cyclonic Storm finally named;

                             MONSOON INDIA 2017-Earlier and WINTER 2017 Southern Indian Ocean Earlier & others.



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