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AVA- First named Cyclone for Season 2017-2018

South Indian Ocean

(Pl, Wait as Uploading is still ON)

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for South Indian Ocean started officially from 01 November 2017. A Rainy episode occurred 14-17 November thereon. One Sub-Tropical Disturbance evolved in South of Madagascar 09-12 November 2017 and a second one on 17 November. Another Rainy period lasted from 23 to24 December 2017. Tropical Disturbance 94S INVEST formed on 29 December in the South-East of Diego Garcia moving almost West South-West after a slow intensification. Local, regional and international Forecasters experienced a lot of uncertainty regarding its dissipation or upgrading. Finally, it was named, at 10.00 am today 03 January 2018, by Météo-Madagascar as AVA Moderate Tropical Storm. It is noteworthy to state that the Pattern of Cyclogenesis for this Season seems to have changed as compared to that of 2016-2017 and of previous years.

Predictions by International Centres 

NOAA Climate Prediction Center

The Climate Prediction Center, NOAA has been indicating and forecasting probable Weather Systems regularly for the Hemispheres of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. The series of Storms, Typhoons, Cyclones and Rainfalls have mostly occurred, affecting mainly Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, India, Sri Lanka and Micronesia/Melanesia region. Refer to pictures. 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has been issuing Advisories relentlessly after identification of Weather Systems which appeared in both the Hemispheres of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans.

JTWC informed before, that 95S INVEST has failed to intensify. However, JTWC Alerted that 94S INVEST has matured to be named as Cyclone at 00.00 hrs on 02 January 2018 and issued the following Advisories:

{ABIO10 PGTW 021000 

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY (INVEST 94S) LOCATED

NEAR 14.9S 59.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 54.7E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 020310Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THAT 94S HAS CONSOLIDATED CONSIDERABLY, WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A FULLY CONCEALED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE SOUTHEAST...

A 020508Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 20-30 KNOT WINDS ALSO WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER THE LLCC IS STILL DISTINCTLY ELONGATED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST WARM ENOUGH (26-27 CELSIUS) TO SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL VALUES REMAIN UNFAVORABLE. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A WELL DEFINED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL...

GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.}

WTXS31 PGTW 050900

TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 011 

REMARKS:

050900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 49.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 338 NM WEST-

NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 15NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE NEWLY FORMED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS…

THE STR WAS PREVIOUSLY STEERING 03S ON COURSE DUE WEST, BUT WITH THE RECENT SHIFT EASTWARD TC 03S IS NOW TAKING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE STR MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TC 03S TO A SOUTHWARD COURSE BY TAU 36. SSTS ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 29 CELSIUS BUT DROP RAPIDLY BELOW 25 DEGREES SOUTH…

TC 03S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WILL MITIGATE SIGNIFICANT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND PROMOTE A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND BEYOND TAU 12…

THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP TC 03S SUSTAINED AT AROUND 80 KNOTS FROM TAU 36 TO 72. BEYOND TAU 72 COOLER WATERS WILL HELP FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWEST, BUT SIMULTANEOUSLY AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW…

AROUND TAU 92 TC 03S WILL BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN DISSIPATING. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FORECAST POSITION AND THE COASTLINE…

BEYOND TAU 72 THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND TAU 120 WITH NAVGEM AND NOW ECMWF SHOWING THE SOUTHERN STR BUILDING BACK SUFFICIENTLY TO SHIFT TC 03S' TRACK TO THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE EASTWARD TURN MOST OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING…

DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 27 FEET.}

Météo-France-Réunion

Météo-France-Réunion is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) of South-West Indian Ocean Basin. Its Advisories have been indicating, (timidly) about the Cyclogenesis and of the Monsoon Trough in the South-West Indian Ocean.

PKANHYE      Uploaded 10.00 pm Wednesday 03 January 2018.

Météo-France started its Advisories as from 29 December 2017.

[WTIO31 FMEE 291339

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/1/20172018

1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 1

.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 29/12/2017 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.3 S / 67.5 E

(ONZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)

DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT.

1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 30/12/2017 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, ZONE PERTURBEE

24H: 30/12/2017 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, PERTURBATION TROPICALE

36H: 31/12/2017 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, PERTURBATION TROPICALE

48H: 31/12/2017 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE

60H: 01/01/2018 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE

72H: 01/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 02/01/2018 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

120H: 03/01/2018 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

2.C COMMENTAIRES:

L'ENSEMBLE DES MODÈLES NUMÉRIQUES SONT EN ACCORD AVEC CETTE

CYCLOGÉNÈSE, MAIS ILS DIFFÉRENT EN TERME DE TIMING À PARTIR DE

DIMANCHE. PARMI LES DÉTERMINISTES UKMO ET IFS PROPOSENT UNE

INTENSIFICATION PLUS LENTE QUE GFS…

LES DIFFÉRENTS EPS ILLUSTRENT CETTE INCERTITUDE, ET AUCUN SCÉNARIO NE SEMBLE POUVOIR ÊTRE PRIVILÉGIÉ POUR L'INSTANT.]

The Advisories, Forecasts and Comments mentioned by Météo-France appear to be rather consistent so far. The latest Bulletin released on 04 January 2018 states as follows:

[WTIO31 FMEE 040638

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/1/20172018

1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 1 (AVA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 04/01/2018 : DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.7 S / 51.8 E (DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST) DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT.

1.B PREVISIONS:

12H: 04/01/2018 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

24H: 05/01/2018 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL

36H: 05/01/2018 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

48H: 06/01/2018 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

60H: 06/01/2018 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

72H: 07/01/2018 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 08/01/2018 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

120H: 09/01/2018 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES

AUJOURD'HUI, L'ARRIVÉE D'UNE DORSALE TRES MOBILE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR VA PERMETTRE A AVA DE POURSUIVRE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUDOUEST. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA CÔTE MALGACHE A PROXIMITE DE TAMATAVE RESTE ENVISAGÉ POUR VENDREDI MATIN.

DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI, LA DORSALE SE DECALE VERS L'EST ET LE SYSTEME EST PREVU REPLONGER VERS LE SUD. UNE GRANDE INCERTITUDE SUR LA CAPACITE DU PHENOMENE A RESSORTIR EN MER DEMEURE A PARTIR DE SAMEDI…

A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VA ÊTRE DETERMINANTE POUR L'EVOLUTION DE L'INTENSITE. EN CAS DE RESSORTIE EN MER PRECOCE, LE SYSTEME RETROUVERAIT DES CONDITIONS TRÈS FAVORABLES POUR UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE.]

 (Keep Watch for BERGUITTA Cyclone in formation.)

Météo-Madagascar 

Météo-Madagascar (MM) is the second Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (SRTCAC), after Mauritius. It has the Area of Responsibility (AOR) for all Weather Systems taking birth and/or between 30⁰ East and 55⁰ East of the South Indian Ocean. MM released its Advisories as from Monday 01 January 2018 as follows:  

<<Alerte établie ce Lundi 01-01-2018

Une perturbation tropicale est en cours de formation dans l'Océan Indien à environ à 1541 Km à l'Est de Cap Masoala. Les conditions environnementales restent bonnes pour un développement significatif dans les 3 prochains jours. Pour le moment, aucune influence sur le temps local n'est envisagée jusqu'au 02 Janvier 2018.

Alerte établie ce Mardi 02-01-2018

Une perturbation tropicale est en cours de formation dans l'Océan Indien à environ à 1541 Km à l'Est de Cap Masoala. Les conditions environnementales restent bonnes pour un développement significatif dans les 3 prochains jours. Pour le moment, aucune influence sur le temps local n'est envisagée jusqu'au 02 Janvier 2018.>>

Janvier 2018.>>

 Watch Video 

Météo-Madagascar named 95S INVEST as Moderate Tropical Storm AVA at 10.00 am on Wednesday 03 January 2018. This is the first name of Cyclones for Season 2017-2018. Coincidentally, the name AVA has been provided by Météo-Madagascar! 

<<Alerte établie ce Vendredi 05-01-2018

La Forte Tempête Tropicale AVA est localisé à 220 Km au Nord-Est de Toamasina à 15 heures locales. Le vent moyen monte à 105 Km/h alterné par des rafales de 140 Km/h. Alerte rouge (Danger Imminent): Analanjirofo, Atsinanana, Alaotra Mangoro; Alerte Jaune (Avis de menace): Antalaha,  Mandritsara, Andilamena, Tsaratanana, Anjozorobe, Antananarivo Avaradrano, Arivonimamo, Ambatolampy, Antanifotsy, Antsirabe I-II et Vatovavy Fitovinany; Alerte Verte (Avis d’Avertissement): Fandriana, Ambositra, Manandriana, Ambohimahasoa, Isandra, Vohibato, Lalangina, Fianarantsoa Ville, Ambalavao, Faritra Atsimo Atsinanana, Anosy, Ivohibe et Iakora.

Check it out here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtF0Ut0uP4M

Vigilance établie ce Vendredi 05-01-2018:

Carte Vigilance Coup de Vents Forts et Fortes Houles

Forcé par le Cyclone AVA sur Toamasina II, la mer restera très perturbée et houleuse durant l'épisode…La sortie en mer est fortement déconseillée…

Le vent pourrait aussi bien atteindre localement 60/70 Km/h dans le Nord-Ouest du pays. >>

Verify here- http://www.meteomadagascar.mg/cyclone

 Updated:   10.50 pm Friday 05 January 2018.

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