Monday, 22 April 2019



23 MARCH 2019 WMD

LIVE UNGA 73rd Ses/2018 




  13-20 August 2018  

     Kilauea Hawaii     


World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.



 ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.


      Watch MMS LIVE





CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017- S-W Indian Ocean,

another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.





DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)






FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.




LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 



''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 






 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.






SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 





THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.


BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

   Mission in Mauritius.



Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video




      Live with NOAA.






Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean





WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016





HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016





 Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin





 Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015







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Dust Storms, Heat Waves, Thunderstorms and Strong Winds-

Phenomenal Deadly Weather Conditions Preceding

2018 Monsoon in India


Almost whole of India is experiencing Extreme and Deadly Weather Conditions since the beginning of May 2018. Dust Storms transporting sand particles and combination of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane and a lot of air pollutants have invaded the Indian Sub-continent from mostly the Arabian Peninsula. Heat Waves, Hailstones, Thunder, Lightning, Rains have caused losses of more than 150 lives, including hundreds of injured people and material damages, have been reported by the local media. Houses have been damaged by Strong Winds, falling trees, service poles, mudslides and Rains. In fact, the 2018 South-West Monsoon System for India is forecast to start as from end of May, as per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Delhi.


IMD DGs held a Press Briefing, on 16 April 2018, at Mahika Auditorium, Pritivi Bhawan, Lodhi Road, Delhi on 1st stage “Long Range Forecast for Southwest Monsoon Rainfall, 2018”. It was in line with the suggestions of motivating Media properly which I gave to them during my meetings with them 22 May-29 August 2017.


IMD has been also launching Warnings since 26 April 2018 regarding the oncoming destructive Weather Events for various regions of India. Severe Warnings have been released on 30 May 2018. The Deadly scenario has really taken place as from Tuesday 03 May 2018.    

{{{Press Release Dated: 30th April 2018 Time: 1400 hours IST

Severe thunderstorm activity over east & northeast India during next 3-4 days

Sub: Severe thunderstorm activity over east & northeast India during next 3-4 days

Synoptic conditions:

o A cyclonic circulation lies over east Bihar and adjoining West Bengal & Jharkhand and a trough runs from this cyclonic circulation to Manipur across Meghalaya in lower levels.

o An east-west trough runs from Punjab to southeast Madhya Pradesh across Haryana & west Madhya Pradesh in lower levels.

o Core of sub-tropical westerly jet runs between latitudes 23 & 27 N over Indian region.

Weather Forecast:

o Under the influence of above systems, scattered to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity very likely over east and northeast India during next 3-4 days.

Thunderstorm and heavy rainfall warnings:

30 April:

o Thunderstorm accompanied with squall/hail very likely at isolated places over West Bengal & Sikkim.

o Thunderstorm accompanied with squall very likely at isolated places over Bihar and Thunderstorm with gusty winds at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Odisha and Jharkhand.

o Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya and Mizoram & Tripura and West Bengal & Sikkim.

01 May:

o Thunderstorm accompanied with squall/hail very likely at isolated places over West Bengal & Sikkim.

o Thunderstorm accompanied with squall very likely at isolated places over Bihar & Odisha and Thunderstorm with gusty winds at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and Jharkhand.

o Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, Mizoram & Tripura, West Bengal & Sikkim and Odisha.

02 May:

o Thunderstorm accompanied with squall likely at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal & Odisha and Thunderstorm with gusty winds at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Jharkhand.

o Heavy rain very likely at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya and Odisha,

03 May:

o Thunderstorm accompanied with squall likely at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha.}}}


The Forecasts for 03-07 May have been as follows.



Sandy Dusts originating from Hot Regions, like deserts, are capable of moving from Northern Africa and the Middle East until the Scandinavian Countries, as explained by NASA. As far as India is concerned, it is clearly explained by IMD: Core of sub-tropical westerly jet runs between latitudes 23 & 27 N over Indian region."

Winds reaching 69 km/h have blown together with Heat Waves of 44 degrees Celsius during these days.

Further description from Encyclopaedia Britannica reads as follows:

“Shamal, hot and dry, dusty wind from the north or northwest in IraqIran, and the Arabian Peninsula. In June and July it blows almost continuously, but usually under 50 km (about 30 miles) per hour. The wind causes great dust storms, especially in July, when Baghdad may experience five or more such storms. The shamal is part of a widespread flow toward a low-pressure centre over Pakistan.”

Uploaded: 11.04 pm MONDAY 07 MAY 2018. 


Mission India 12 May -06 October 2017

According to my findings, Media in general- tv/radio stations, newspapers, magazines, internet/telephony service providers, etc., do not fulfill their role as a major stakeholder in the Framework of Disaster Resilience. In India, most of the time they behave rather as paparazzi, scoop chasers and entertaining programmes, which are rather rampant with anti-social features. It is in view of addressing this ‘off-track role’ of the Media that I gave some suggestions to Scientist Mr. Charan Singh of IMD on 05 July 2017. He has the job of disseminating all Weather Bulletins and Warnings to the Indian National Television Station Door Darshan (DD). I made it clear to him that releases of Weather Bulletins are not shows, but are rather crucial information which requires some parameters to be respected:

  1. For the Safety and Protection of the population;
  2. these demand accurate and timely dissemination. This is crystal-clearly mentioned in the Mission Statement of WMO;
  3. be without any irrelevance, digression and adding literary or folkloric terms;
  4. to make use of same scientific and meteorological terms as mentioned by IMD;
  5. that media should respect and use the same format regarding graphics, colours and forms as universally recognized for Cyclones, Rain, Temperature and Air Quality in terms of intensity and scale (blue, red, orange, yellow, grey, etc). Usually, they tend to change the formats and cause lots of confusion for the audience.

The same 'guideline' was given to Scientist Saha of  IMD Kolkatta on Saturday 29 July 2017 and to Mr. Shankar of IMD Patna on 06 September 2017.

In addition, it is usually known that the Media mixes these bits of crucial news together with unwonted advertisement, publicity and/or commercial clips. As observed, there are many such media worldwide which do not adopt good practices; e.g. In Mauritius:

  • Weather Bulletins are disseminated by the national television station coupled with ‘cat-walk’ and
  • The real functioning of a television station is to broadcast audio messages accompanied by visuals and/or videos. Very often, there are only audio messages and no visuals. Thus the television is automatically reduced to a radio, whose role is only audio. Such a situation is to the detriment of the population who pay their tv license bills each month. 

See the snapshot picture taken from the DD on the very day of my suggestion and perfectly executed ‘LIVE’ by Mr. CS.


The same issue was discussed with Mr. Rishi Ram Sharma, DG of Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) of Katmandu, Nepal and his team during 02-09 August 2017. In addition, on the request of DG Sharma, I returned to IMD Delhi on 29 August 2017 in order to discuss, successfully, Satellite Services for The benefit of Nepal DHM.


Rajasthan State Government

Almost the same suggestions were shown in my presentation at the training programme: ‘Knowledge Management for Disaster Risk Reduction’. This was held on 10-14 July 2017, at HCM Rajasthan State Institute of Public Administration (HCM RSIPA), Jaipur in which I was invited as Guest Speaker/Presenter.

It is noted that the first 37 Indians who lost their life following the impacts of the Dust Storm, Thunderstorms, Rains and Lightning of 03 May 2018, are from Rajasthan. Unfortunately, this HCM RSIPA, which is a governmental institution, does not fulfill its objectives. It is supposed to provide training on ‘Management Studies, Urban Development, Disaster Management, Gender Studies, Child Resource and Good Governance’. The team, led by Prof. RS, which is managing this Institute, is not skilled in Disaster Management. It has not learnt from recent past and also from the Disastrous Flood which struck the same HCM RSIPA premises on 19 July 1981, wherein a ‘major portion of the building had collapsed and deep ravines were created all around the building. The width of ravines varied from 100 ft. to 300 ft. and depth from 50 ft. to 70 ft.’

The questions which can be asked are: why so many people died on 03 May 2018 and what were the Awareness, Preparedness, Adaptation and Mitigation mechanisms activated when IMD released the different Warnings?  No doubt, they have not learnt from the suggestions mentioned in my presentation. Besides, it was the first time that India was organizing such a Training Programme on DRR.

There are lots of shortcomings and loopholes in urbanization, drainage, pollution, garbage and other obstructions in fostering Sustainable Development. Each year citizens in Rajasthan lose their life during cyclones, floods, hailstones, lightning etc. One of the survivors of 03 May Thunderstorms stated to the media that he and others were not aware of the oncoming Disaster. Really speaking, the State Government of Rajasthan is lagging behind in all these public affairs. Moreover, recent anti-social, communal, racial commotions and deadly attacks on part of its population prove such real notorious testimonies. HCM RSIPA seems to be a cursed institution. There are overall bad urbanization projects, awful sanitary and hygienic conditions, pollution and garbage everywhere, unruly traffic movements and bad governance. All these are rampant, just like vulgarity and violence. What has this HCM RSIPA achieved in Sustainable Development and Disaster Resilience? It is rather a WHITE ELEPHANT’ and an ‘Empty Barrel’ and is not an ‘Agent of Change’.

Prof. RS, who is a 'professional' in Urban Development, should learn the a, b, c ,d of Drainage Systems from the professionals of the Ancient Civilizations like the Mohenjo Daro and Harrapa: absorption pits, boreholes, canals, drains/drainage systems. He should change his mindset in order 'to adapt or to perish'.

See a few of these spots of bad governance in Jaipur also known as the ‘Pink City’ !



Thar Desert, also known as Great Indian Desert, is classified as the 18th largest of the world. It is estimated to be 200,000 km2, 85% of which, is found in Western India and the rest 15% in Southern Pakistan. It is also a natural frontier between the two countries with a stretch of mountainous features. In fact, the mountains hide the boundaries of the Indian Tectonic Plate with many fault lines. The Ancient and lost Mohenjo-Daro and Harappa Civilizations existed on both sides of  Thar and along the Indus River, which is now Pakistan.

Thar Desert occupies 70% of the surface land mass of Rajasthan. The zone is barren, hilly and has also plain-like, with the only river called Luni. Sand dunes cover the surface of the region. It also means that temperature is always high reaching, 49 degrees Celsius during summer season.

The Atmospheric Currents which prevail in India are dominated by the El Nino (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) System and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). TheCore of sub-tropical westerly jet runs between latitudes 23 & 27 N over Indian region”, mentioned by IMD and the ‘Shamal’ stated above, move from the Arabian region and shift towards Pakistan, India and Nepal. The Cold and Icy Chains of the Himalayas act as a corridor which channel the Atmospheric Currents, accompanied by mainly Heat, Sand Dunes and pollution. The Thar Desert helps all these Phenomena. So, Dust Storms, Heat Waves and Thunderstorms are inevitable during Summer Season in India.

Mention has been made in the Summer Outlook 2016-2017 for Southern Indian Ocean, that Climate and Weather Patterns have changed; that there shall be only 4 Cyclones, mostly taking birth near and/or NE of Madagascar. This Weather Prediction outclassed all forecast made by the Mauritius Meteorological Services, Météo-Madagascar and Météo-France Réunion, which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) for South-West Indian Ocean. Read more articles published in this Website.

As far as the 2017 South-West Indian Monsoon System (SWIMS) is concerned, mention has been made, in another article, that the Climate and Weather Patterns in whole Indian Ocean appear to have changed. According to my calculation I Predicted that the onset of the SWIMS would be as from 12 May 2017. That is why I took the aeroplane on Thursday 11 May 2017 (exactly one year ago) and landed in Mumbai on 12 May. The first showers of the SWIMS started during the night of 12 May. Various regions of India were under Thunderstorms since 12 May 2017, accompanied by Rains. While Mumbai was showered with Light Rains, other places in the North-East saw significant Precipitations. See pictures.

I reached Delhi on Wednesday17 May and the first Rains fell in Delhi on 21 May. I met the DGs and Staff of IMD on 22 May to discuss the Monsoon issue.



The 2017 South-West Monsoon of Asia started earlier than normal period-20 May 2017. Now, the current 2018 Monsoon has made its onset much earlier than last years, confirming that Climate and Weather Patterns have also changed, as stated last year.

Remarks and Comments

India is among the most vulnerable countries in terms of Calamities-Natural and Man-made. It is classified second to Philippines in the zone of Southern Asia. In fact, the Sub-continent of India dislocated from the Mega landmass of Gondwanaland 60-70 million years ago. It departed from the area of now South-West Indian Ocean, at the very location where Mauritius is presently standing. The Sub-continent then reached the Continent of Asia against which it collided, thus forming the Himalayan Mountain Chains.

It means that India has been thus transported, continuously, by a series of Tectonic Plate movements. So, the Indian landmass, including the neighbouring countries, is subject to perpetual Earthquakes, Landslides and Tsunamis, apart from the impacts of Hazards from the Atmosphere.

It is curious to learn that the National Disaster Management Act was passed by the Indian government in 2005. It coincided with the introduction of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015. The question is: what have the Rulers, Emperors, Kings, invaders like the Alexander the Great, the Romans, Turks and Mongols, Portuguese, Dutch, French, British and the series of Policy Makers did for the Safety and Protection of the population? Besides, India is top listed in Air Pollution which is considered as a ‘Silent Killer’

Some current Policy Makers stated in 2017 in Delhi, that India is a ‘Champion of Disaster Resilience’. On the contrary, Disaster Resilience is Remote, as mentioned in the Assessment Report on Very Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI (30 November -05 December 2017). Refer to article published in this Website.

There are various ‘Country-Driven Mechanisms’ like the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM) and National Disaster Response Force (NDRF). Yet, Resilience is not achievable because of various educational and social factors mentioned, briefly, above. Dynamic People-Centered Mechanisms’ and Early Warning Systems (EWS) are rather required for the prevention of loss of lives and property and for mitigation purposes for the complex Hazards from Land, Ocean, Rivers and Atmosphere.                                                                   

The scenario for 2018 has turned more dynamic, with Dust Storms, Thunder, Lightning, Rains and Hailstorms. According to Indian Media, over 100 Indians lost their life on 03 May 2018; 1,800 houses were destroyed and 3000 refugees were recorded and 9 others died in Northern India on 09 May. The IMD already made the forecast for North-East with Rains. Refer to the 07-09 Chart.

The series seem to continue and the South-West Asian Monsoon forecast by IMD for end of May is apprehended to be more disastrous than in previous years. In 2017, 70 citizens lost their life in Nepal and more than 1,000 in India (as per findings in Bihar).


In contrast to Rajasthan and other provincial states, the State Government of Bihar is better organized and pro-active in DRR. That is why, in the second phase of Mission India scheduled for November 2018-May 2019, I will launch a Centre for DRR, amongst other issues, in Bihar, Arrah. The main objective will be to work in close collaboration with IMD Patna and with the governmental institution- Bihar State Disaster Management Authority for implementing the report on ‘Roadmap for Disaster Risk Reduction for Bihar’. See pictures. 


Verify from TWITTER IMD-

See DUST STORM Animation in Middle East-(Courtesy-Barcelona Dust) CLICK HERE. 


Keep Watch for the South-West Asian Monsoon System 2018.


PKANHYE.        Updated: 9.45 pm FRIDAY 11 MAY 2018.

Read More: 

OCKHI Very Severe Cyclonic Storm-Brief Assessment and Disaster Resilience in India;

MONSOON INDIA 2017-Earlier and WINTER 2017 Southern Indian Ocean Earlier;

Tropical Disturbance Trapped in the South-West Monsoon System. MORA Cyclonic Storm finally named;

.MAARUTHA Cyclonic Storm with Rapid Development Forecast to Make Landfall in MYANMAR around Midnight on 16 APRIL 2017.;

Summer Outlook 2016-2017 South Indian Ocean, Prediction and Cyclone Names,etc.

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