Wednesday, 26 June 2019



23 MARCH 2019 WMD

LIVE UNGA 73rd Ses/2018 




  13-20 August 2018  

     Kilauea Hawaii     


World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.



 ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.


      Watch MMS LIVE





CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017- S-W Indian Ocean,

another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.





DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)






FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.




LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 



''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 






 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.






SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 





THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.


BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

   Mission in Mauritius.



Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video




      Live with NOAA.






Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean





WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016





HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016





 Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin





 Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015







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South-West Asian Monsoon 2018 Early Onset 

WMO Salutes IMD

   (See Final Update)

The South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) has officially started as from today Tuesday 29 May 2018. It is interesting to say that the Atmospheric Conditions of the recent weeks have been marked by Heat Waves, Thunderstorms, Lightning, Hailstones and Dust Storms. These have been Deadly with at least 150 losses of lives, lots of destructions and damages across India. Deadly Severe Cyclonic Storm SAGAR (17-21 May 2018) along the Gulf of Aden and Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm MEKUNU (18-26 May 2018), very rare in the Arabian Sea, have proved that Climate, Weather and Hydrology patterns have altered considerably in whole Indian Ocean. Like-wise the South-West Asian Monsoon System has made an early entry, just like last years’ onset on 30 May 2017, contrary to previous years. The same was mentioned in articles on SAGAR and MEKUNU in this Website. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has mentioned the 2018 Monsoon Onset from Kerala region as from 29 May.

[[[India Meteorological Department Press Release Dated: 29th May, 2018

Time of Issue: 1130 hrs IST. 

Sub: Onset of Monsoon over Kerala.

Southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala, today, the 29th May 2018.

o Today, the southwest monsoon has further advanced into remaining parts of southeast Arabian Sea, Comorin – Maldives area, entire Lakshadweep, most parts of Kerala, some parts of Tamil Nadu and some more parts of southwest, central and northeast Bay of Bengal.

o Thus the southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala, today, the 29th May 2018, 3 days ahead of its normal date.

o The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through Lat. 120N/ Long 600E, Lat 120N/ Long 650E, Lat.120N/ Long 700E, Kannur, Coimbatore, Kodaikanal, Tuticorin, Lat. 090N/ Long 800E, Lat. 130N/ Long 850E, Lat.180N/ Long 900E, Lat. 210N/ Long 930E. Figure-1 shows the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) as on today...

Prevailing meteorological conditions leading to onset of monsoon over Kerala. 

Widespread rainfall occurred over Kerala, during the past 3-4 days. The 14 rainfall monitoring stations for Monsoon onset over Kerala have reported more than 60% rainfall from 25th May. (Fig-2).

Westerly winds have strengthened in the lower levels (more than 30 knots) and deepened with Westerly/ West-southwesterly winds upto 600 hPa (approximately upto 4.5km) over the south Arabian Sea (equator to Lat. 10oN and Long. 55oE to 80oE) from today morning.

There is persistent convection (cloudiness indicated by Outgoing Long-wave Radiation values <200 Wm-1) from 23rd May. The Satellite (INSAT-3D) derived Outgoing Long wave Radiation value in the box confined by Lat. 5-10oN, Long. 70-80oE is 187 W/m2. (Fig-2).

In addition to the above features, the following developments are also noticed:

An east-west shear zone runs roughly along latitude 120N (across south peninsula) at 3.1 km above mean sea level.

A well marked low pressure area lies over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea off north Kerala- Karnataka coasts.

Another well marked low pressure area lies over eastcentral and adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal. It is likely to concentrate into a Depression during next 12 hours.

Further advance during next 48 hours.

Conditions are favorable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into some parts of central Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Kerala, some parts of coastal and south interior Karnataka, some more parts of eastcentral and northeast Bay of Bengal, and some parts of northeastern states during next 48 hours.]]]


PKANHYE.           Uploaded: 10.00 pm TUESDAY 29 MAY 2018.


IMD and Media

Media is considered as a Major Stakeholder in the Framework of Early Warning Systems of the WMO and UNISDR. Unfortunately, there are many television and radio stations (public and private), internet/telephony service providers, newspapers, magazines, social/electronic media, etc., world-wide, which do not fulfill their roles perfectly and timely. Most of the time, they act as paparazzi and scoop chasers. They distort, digress and/or modify Weather and Warning news and information which are crucial for the Protection and Safety of the population. This issue has been raised consistently with the IMD and DHM, including the Disaster Management Authorities, during my Tour in India and Nepal 12 May-06 October 2017. See articles in this Website.


IMD DGs held a Press Briefing, on 16 April 2018, at Mahika Auditorium, Prithivi Bhawan, Lodhi Road, Delhi on 1st stage “Long Range Forecast for Southwest Monsoon Rainfall, 2018”. In addition, in its regular Press Release from its Website, IMD mentioned that the “Southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala, today, the 29th May 2018”. In other words, the Monsoon has started three days in advance of its occurrence.


IMD moving towards ‘Weather Ready and Climate Smart’


IMD is among the best Meteorological Services globally speaking. It has its own resources: Satellites Services (through ISRO), Radars, Equipment, Tools, etc. of sophisticated nature and lots of well qualified/trained personnel. Besides, it is also the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of seven other states of this Zone, as per the WMO Protocol.


It is very interesting to note that, IMD is also tracking as an Agent of Change’, in view of making a ‘Wise Investment’ in the enhancement of Weather Predictions. This is an example to be followed by other NHMS of states which are inactive or lack resources.

Another Media Briefing was held on 01 June 2018, by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), given, that IMD operates under its aegis. (See below.)


/// Secretary MoES will brief the media at 1400 hrs IST on 1st June 2018 on “High Resolution Ensemble Prediction System for Probabilistic Weather Forecast “ at Prithvi Bhavan ,Lodhi Road , New Delhi- 110003.

Government of India

Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)

PRESS RELEASE 1 June 2018.

MoES Commissions High Resolution Ensemble Prediction Systems for Probabilistic Weather Forecasts.


The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has commissioned two very high resolution (12 km grid scale) state-of-the-art global Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) for generating operational 10-days probabilistic forecasts of weather. The EPS involves the generation of multiple forecasts using slightly varying initial conditions... 

This critical service level augmentation became possible due to the consistent efforts made by the scientists at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Noida and India Meteorological Department (IMD). The frameworks of the new EPSs are among the best weather prediction systems in the world at present. Very few forecasting centres in the world use this high resolution for short-medium range probabilistic weather forecasts... 

The EPS will enhance the weather information being provided by the current models by quantifying the uncertainties in the weather forecasts and generate probabilistic  forecasts... 

The probabilistic forecasts of severe weather events at 12 km grid scale across India will greatly help the disaster management authorities and other users in making better emergency response decisions by explicitly accounting for the uncertainty in weather forecasts. The probabilistic forecasts will also be very useful for various sectors of the economy including agriculture, water resources, tourism and renewable energy... 

The forecast products from these two prediction systems are available at the following links ( and ( IMD will work further to bring out more useful service level products using these prediction systems... 

The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) provides Weather and Climate Services to various users round the year and on 24/7 basis. Both operational and research aspects for these services are implemented through its constituent units like IMD, NCMRWF, IITM and Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS)... 

Over the past few years, the quality of weather and climate services provided by this Ministry has improved significantly due to systematic efforts in augmenting atmospheric and ocean observing systems in the region, improving the high performance computational capability to 8.0 petaflops, implementing high-resolution global models and advanced data assimilation techniques for ingesting data from Indian and International satellites, conducting cutting edge research and investing in human resources development. The successes in predicting the Tropical Cyclones Phailin/Hudhud, heavy rainfall events and heat waves are the best examples of the improvement in prediction capability during the recent years... 

MoES is also working to implement more effective mechanism for dissemination of weather and climate forecasts to different stake holders using different communication channels. MoES is committed to transform India into a “Weather Ready” Nation.\\\ 


 Updated: 11.15 am MONDAY 04 JUNE 2018.


WMO Salutes IMD

Mention has been made in article here regarding Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm MEKUNU (18-26 May 2018), that International Centers-NOAA and IMD have been precise, although Moderately or of 33-64%, in Predicting the Cyclogenesis as far as MEKUNU was concerned. In addition, ‘JTWC has been very dynamic in issuing its Advisories since 18 May 2018.’ As far as Severe Cyclonic Storm SAGAR (17-21 May 2018), IMD had Low Confidence-33%.


See the reaction of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, after the deadly and sad episode of ESCS MEKUNU. The Newsletters from this Website, no doubt, also reach WMO and most of its 191 Member States, including International Scientists.

The IMD published the following on 05 June 2018:


Time of issue: 1500 hours IST

Dated: 05-06-2018

Sub: World Meteorological Organisation appreciates India Meteorological Department for Tropical Cyclone Advisory Services during cyclones Sagar and Mekunu”. \\\



South-West Asian Monsoon System

The South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) is generated and propelled by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the ENSO (El Nino/La Nina phenomena), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) System and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Dust Storms (local and regional), multiple air pollution ingredients and Solar Radiation, etc., also contribute for its evolution.

The SWAMS prevails mainly on the landmass of the Sub-Continent of India and also through the Bay of Bengal until the Arabian Sea. No doubt, the adjoining countries and islands are under its influence, too. The Patterns of Advancement during its Onset and of its Withdrawal are perfectly explained in the IMD Charts.

The first Bands of Clouds carrying the Monsoon Meteors start as from the Northern Andaman Sea, including the Andaman and Nicobar Archipelago, which is an Indian Territory and the Far Southern landmass of Myanmar (ex-Burma) located in the East of India. The Onset of the SWAMS, in the Bay of Bengal, is usually 20 May of each year. On the 25th June, it advances on Sri Lanka along the South-West and East-Central of Bay of Bengal until South of Myanmar. It reaches South-East of Arabian Sea, Southern Lakshadweep Archipelago (Indian Territory), Southern India, along West-Central and North East Bay of Bengal, Central Myanmar, East of Bangladesh until Far North-East of India on 01 June.

  • This particular date-01 Juneand its eventual Weather Event is considered as the Onset date of Monsoonfor India;
  • The further Advancement of the Monsoon is from East-Central of Arabian Sea, South-West of India, Central Bangladesh, North-East of India as far as Bhutan State on 5th June.
  • 10th Junemarks its continuance from East-Central of Arabian Sea, Western, Central and Northern India, South-East of Nepal up to and Tibet.
  • It gradually reaches North-East of Arabian Sea, West and North of India and West of Nepal on 15th June.
  • The Monsoon prevails along North-East of the Arabian Sea, Western India and the Northern tip of India up to North of Pakistan on 01 July.
  • The last Advancement occurs afterwards by culminating on 15th Julyall through North East of Arabian Sea, Southern, Central and Northern Pakistan. This is also known as the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM)

As mentioned above, the South-West Asian Monsoon System normally sets in over Kerala around 1st June. It advances northwards, usually in surges, and covers the entire country around 15th July…

The NLM is the northern most limit of monsoon up to which it has advanced on any given day.”, stated by IMD.


Meanwhile, the SWAMS continues influencing all these zones with Heat Waves, Thunder, Lightning, Heavy Rains-to-Floods, Mudslides, Landslides, Hailstones, Dust Storms, Strong Winds accompanied by Depressions and Cyclones.


The month of August appears to be the Peak of the Monsoon with Deadly Impacts. Pakistan was devastated in August 2008.


The UN report mentioned that on 30 May 2017, “According to Sri Lanka’s Disaster Management Centre (DMC)... in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Mora,.. some 177 people have died and 109 remain missingOver half a million people have been affected by flooding and landslides in central and southern Sri Lanka…most of the deaths were caused by landslides…Over 768 houses have been destroyed and 5,869 partially damaged while 80,409 people were temporarily displaced to 361 safe locations.”


In Bihar, India 24 persons lost their life and 9 persons are reported dead, 20,000 houses destroyed in Cox’s Bazar only, trees uprooted, etc. in Bangladesh.


India recorded more than 1,000 Losses of lives during 07 to 25 August 2017 and Nepal witnessed 70 Deaths (during my Tour). Houses, roads, railway lines, livelihood, crops and cattle were destroyed/lost, including cancellation of more than 33 train trips and dozens of air flights, apart from other miseries. Refer to pictures.


It is interesting to note that the South-West Asian Monsoon System prevails, as from the first dates, in a South, South-West towards the North, North-East and North-West Pattern.


The Monsoon Withdraws as from 01 September from the Pakistan territory in a reverse Pattern until phasing out on 01 January, the following year, in the zone of Sri Lanka in the Bay of Bengal.

A striking feature which can be noticed is that the whole of the Himalayan Mountain Range is under the onslaught of the Monsoon, both on the Onset and on the Withdrawal. The Himalayas also acts like a ‘Corridor’, thus channeling the Winds and Meteors beyond other neighbouring countries-Nepal, Bhutan, Tibet until China-mostly the Western Provinces.


NB: For convenience-sake the South-West Monsoon which prevails in India (Northern Hemisphere), as described above, is called South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS). The reason is that it should not be confused with the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) which operates in the Southern Hemisphere where Mauritius, Madagascar and Reunion Islands are found. This is one of the interesting issues which are in my agenda to be discussed/approved by WMO/IPCC by next year.


Remarks and Suggestions

The issue of Disaster Resilience has been stated often in this Website, that it is Remote in India, Nepal and many other countries. The main reason is the lack of Resources made available by Policy Makers for their respective Meteorological Services and related institutions. In this case, IMD together with its 34 Departments/Sub-Offices across India, is a well-equipped national institution. The Alerts, Warnings and Advisories released by IMD are timely and accurate, as mandated by WMO. The National Disaster Management Authority and its Institute together with the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), which are ‘Country-Driven Mechanisms’, are trying hard in this direction. There are, nevertheless, some weaknesses. However, the Loopholes and Shortcomings rest with the Media, whose role are not timely and accurate, as clarified above.

Apart from the 150 persons who died during and after the 03 May 2018 Dust Storm in India, there are others, unfortunately, who continue losing their life during the current Monsoon 2018.

It is here that the 2nd Phase of Mission India scheduled for November 2018 will be marked by the launching of a ‘People-Centred Mechanism’ Centre in view of building Disaster Resilience-the ‘Wealth-of-the-Nation’.

It has been suggested in article on OCHKI Severe Cyclonic Storm (30 November-05 December 2017), that Disaster Resilience in India is better realizable by first tackling Road Traffic and Garbage problems. This is food for thought in order to move towards Developmental Sustainability.

So, you are reminded that the UN World Environment Day 2018 has been hosted and marked in India on 05 June 2018. That's Right!




CLICK HERE to Watch LIVE Warnings from IMD Delhi.


  Keep Watch on the Advancement of the SWAMS. 


PKANHYE.        Updated: 11.30 am MONDAY 11 JUNE 2018. 


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SAGAR Cyclonic Storm (91A INVEST) in Arabian Sea- Rapid Development for Socotra Island, Somalia, Ethiopia and Arabian Peninsula;

Dust Storms, Heat Waves, Thunderstorms-Phenomenal Deadly Weather Conditions Preceding 2018 Monsoon in India;

FIRST Cyclonic System of 2018 for North Indian Ocean SSW of Bay of Bengal/S of Sri Lanka;

OCKHI Very Severe Cyclonic Storm-Brief Assessment and Disaster Resilience in India;

Nepal, India, China, Japan and Mauritius Under Significant Natural Calamities;

MORA Severe Cyclonic Storm-Phenomenal, Churning Monsoon Rains and Early Warning Systems- Not Perfect;

MONSOON INDIA 2017-Earlier and WINTER 2017 Southern Indian Ocean Earlier ,etc.

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