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Late Mrs SUSHMA SWARAJ

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Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

 ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

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CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

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DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

 

 

 

FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

 

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

 

LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

 

 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

 

 

 

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

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Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 

 

Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

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WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016

 

 

  

 

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
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 Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

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 Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

  

 

 

 

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94S INVEST-ALCIDE First Cyclone Season 2018-2019

Heralded by Traditional Knowledge and

Ahead of International Scientific Centres

  (Pl, see Update  below)

                   

The formation of a band of Low Pressure in Southern Indian Ocean at the end of October has been a perfect indication for the entrance of an Early Summer Season 2018-2019. Observations of the Atmosphere around the Mauritius, made by applying Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) indicated an oncoming Dynamic Cyclonic Season. It is very interesting to note that tropical fruits have been blossoming almost everywhere, especially mangoes and litchis which were very low in production during last year and during precedent seasons. The sky invaded by Alto Cumulus Clouds on 23 October 2018 confirmed the Formation of Cyclone and Rains which are approaching.

The presence of 94S INVEST in the North East of Mauritius and also of 93S INVEST East of Diego Garcia prove that the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) will likely experience Disastrous Cyclones and Rains this Season. It is noteworthy to state that the Pacific Ocean has undergone a boisterous season with more than 28 Typhoons this year. So, the paradigm shift is now in the Southern Hemisphere.

Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) is monitoring closely the formation and evolution of these Weather Systems. As at today, 4.00 am Tuesday 06 November 2018, 94S INVEST is located 560 km East North-East of AGALEGA Island and is a Direct Threat for the Cinderella of the Republic of Mauritius. It is also 1380 North North-East of Mauritius. The Wind Force around 94S INVEST , as per JTWC, is consistent with 35 knots (63.7 Km/h) and is forecast to intensify rapidly reaching 90 knots (164 Km/h) by Friday and Weaken thereafter in the periphery of North and East of Madagascar. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has issued a Special Weather Bulletin for AGALEGA since Monday 05 November 2018. So, 94S INVEST will eventually be named by MMS probably today as ALCIDE Moderate Tropical Storm.

 

NB: 94S INVEST-ALCIDE seems to evolve like a Tiny or Average Size system. Lots of RAINS will shower AGALEGA, but lesser amount in Madagascar, Mauritius and Reunion, especially by the combination of an approaching Frontal System and of the Anti-Cyclone in the Southern Indian Ocean.

 

Keep Watch for Updates.

 UPLOADED:    10.30 am TUESDAY 06 NOVEMBER 2018

 

International Centres

NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) rightly predicted, the probability of cyclogenesis in the Indian Ocean for period 31 October to 13 November 2018. See picture above.

Scientist Patrick Hoareau of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) also rightly stated on 04 November 2018 that Tropical Disturbance 94S INVEST near AGALEGA has better chance of intensifying into a Cyclone than 93S INVEST which started forming simultaneously Eastwards of Diego Garcia. 

                                                           

 Météo-France-Réunion

Météo-France-Réunion which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for South-West Indian Ocean released its Advisories and forecasts when 94S INVEST was still evolving as a Tropical Depression, with the high probability of intensifications as follows:

<<<1.B PREVISIONS:

12H: 06/11/2018 18 UTC: 9.7 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE

24H: 07/11/2018 06 UTC: 10.4 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

36H: 07/11/2018 18 UTC: 11.3 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

48H: 08/11/2018 06 UTC: 12.0 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

60H: 08/11/2018 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

72H: 09/11/2018 06 UTC: 13.5 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 10/11/2018 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

120H: 11/11/2018 06 UTC: 13.5 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.>>>

 

 

Mauritius Meteorological Services

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) issued its Special Weather Bulletins regarding the Tropical Depression 94S INVEST when it was identified as a Low Pressure System on Monday 05 November 2018.

[[[ Special Weather Communiqué for Agalega


Second bulletin issued at 1600 hours, on Monday 05 November 2018.


The
marked low pressure evolving to the east north east of Agalega has intensified  into tropical disturbance. At 1600 hours it was centered at about 1000 km from the island.  The tropical disturbance is moving in a general west south westerly direction at about 20 Km/h.


On this trajectory the tropical disturbance is approaching
Agalega. There are indications that it may become a moderate tropical storm by tomorrow and eventually pass at its nearest point to the island on Wednesday 07 November.  As such it represents a threat to the islands of Agalega.]]]\

[[[Seventh bulletin issued at 0410 hours on Wednesday 07 November 2018.

At 0400 hours
Moderate Tropical Storm ALCIDE was centred at about 150 km almost to the east of Agalega. It is moving in a West-South-Westerly direction at about 18 Km/h.

On this trajectory
Moderate Tropical Storm ALCIDE is dangerously approaching Agalega and constitutes a direct and serious threat to the island.It continues to intensify and may become a severe tropical storm during the day when it will be in the neighbourhood of Agalega. Cyclonic conditions, that is gusts of the order of 120 km/h may be experienced over the Island.  It is very likely that Alcide will pass over the Island by mid-day. This situation may trigger an abnormal rise in sea level of about 70 cm above the normal high tide causing submersion of coastal areas.

The population at Agalega is strongly advised to stay in safe places and maintain all precautions.
Weather at Agalega will be overcast with frequent moderate to heavy thundery showers.
The
wind will blow from the south at about 35 km/h and will strengthen considerably during the coming hours. Gusts may reach 110 km/h in the morning. There is a high risk of cyclonic conditions, that is, gusts of the order of 120 km/h may be experienced on the island during the day.

Sea will become very high with heavy swells. The population at Agalega is strongly advised not to venture at sea and on the beach
.

AGALEGA was showered with 135 mm of Rain during 07 November. The MMS issued its last Bulletin on Wednesday 07 November 2018:

[[[Special Weather Communiqué for Agalega

Tenth and last bulletin issued at 1910 hours on Wednesday 07 November 2018.

Severe Tropical Storm Alcide continues to move away from Agalega and track towards the west southwest at about 18km/h.


At 1900 hours it was centered at about
100 km to the west of the island. As such the risks of having cyclonic conditions have considerably decreased.

However, active cloud bands associated with the severe tropical storm will continue to influence weather over the island tonight maintaining strong winds and thundery showers.

The weather at Agalega will remain overcast with intermittent rain which will be moderate and thundery at times. The showers will decrease tomorrow morning.

The wind will blow from the north at about 50 km/h and gusts may still reach 80 km/h at times tonight.

The wind will weaken gradually tomorrow.

The sea will remain very high with swells. The public in Agalega is strongly advised not to venture at sea and on the beaches.

This is the last special bulletin for Agalega unless a change in trajectory of Alcide towards the southeast. The public is advised to consult the usual communique for further information.

The public at Agalega is advised to stay in safe places and follow the instructions from the authorities on the island.]]]

 AGALEGA

AGALEGA is a Dependency of and the Cinderella of Republic of Mauritius. It appears like a Tamarind Fruit but is split into two Islets, because of Sea Level Rise. It is a sandy land of hardly about 5 metres above sea level. Horse carriages used to link the two islands when the sandy road was still practicable. There is only one village in the Southern Island and two in the Northern one-Village Vingt Cinq and La Fourche where the Warf is.

The residential and public buildings, including the small airport runway, do not stand with stability. So, Storm Surges are inevitable and Disastrous. The fragile Warf is still operating with old cranes and vehicles. Given, that there is no harbour as such, people are forced to embark and disembark by climbing the old rotten iron steps hanging on the concrete Warf.

During the French Occupation about 30 Slaves who were introduced there were producing coconut oil and vegetable crops for subsistence, apart from fishing activities. Today there are only about 250 men, women and children who live there. A Meteorological Station, Hospital, Primary and Kindergarten Schools, and Police Posts are available. Yet, there is no pure democratisation for the population.

   

Watch Live from METEOSAT-8 

                            

PKANHYE.       5.03 pm THURSDAY 08 NOVEMBER 2018.   

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