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BOUCHRA Mod/Trop/Storm-Weakening & Reviving

2nd Cyclone for Season 2018-2019

(See updates below)

    

Mention has been rightly made in previous article regarding ALCIDE, that ‘the formation of a band of Low Pressure in Southern Indian Ocean at the end of October has been a perfect indication for the entrance of an Early Summer Season 2018-2019.’ Also that ‘the presence of 94S INVEST in the North East of Mauritius and also of 93S INVEST East of Diego Garcia prove that the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) will likely experience Disastrous Cyclones and Rains this Season.’

The Tropical Disturbance which was evolving at 5.7°South and 88.8°East of Diego Garcia has intensified rapidly. The System has been named by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS), at 22.30 hrs on Saturday 10 November 2018, as Moderate Tropical Storm BOUCHRA. This 2nd Cyclone in the Southern Indian Ocean and which has named within a week-time of ALCIDE, proves that Season 2018-2019 will no doubt beget a Dynamic Period. While Tiny ALCIDE is still struggling and weakening in the North-East of Madagascar, BOUCHRA was almost stationary far 3000 km North-East of Mauritius. As at today, 11 November, it is moving Westwards at 14 km/h.

 

NB: India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also named the Tropical Depression this morning as GAJA Cyclonic Storm. See Advisories below.

<<<Yesterday’s depression over southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) intensified into a deep depression (DD) in the same evening over southeast & adjoining central BoB. Moving further west-northwestwards, it intensified into a cyclonic storm (CS) “Gaja” over eastcentral and adjoining westcentral & southeast BoB in the early morning of today, the 11th November, 2018. >>>

The Advisories released on Saturday 10 November 2018 by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are the following:

 {{{REMARKS: 

100900Z POSITION NEAR 5.5S 90.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 100353Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE…

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE IN A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS)...

STATE UP TO TAU 48 AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. AFTERWARD, IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST ASSUMES STEERING. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A SLOW INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 72, FUELED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS AND TRAJECTORIES IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK FROM THE QS STATE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 8 FEET.}}} 

 Uploaded: 4.44 pm SUNDAY 11 NOVEMBER 2018. 

 

Moderate Tropical Storm BOUCHRA was named on 10 November 2018. It showed signs of weakening during the following days. However, it re-intensified out of its Remnants on 18 November reaching 2375 km Eastwards of Rodrigues Island at a speed of 15 km/h. According to JTWC latest Advisories BOUCHRA is more or less in a trend of further weakening and dissipating in the next 24 hours. As such it appears that BOUCHRA will, eventually, reach the South-Western Zone of Australia in the coming several days.

NB: The windy and light rainy weather prevailing momentarily in the Mascarene Islands are not associated with BOUCHRA, but with the Anti-Cyclone and Frontal System invading the South-West Indian Ocean Basin from the West.

 

The Latest JTWC Advisories are as follows: 

{{{WTXS32 PGTW 200300

REMARKS:

200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 78.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...

TC 04S HAS SLOWED DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AS THE LLCC SEPARATES FROM THE CONVECTION AND IS STEERED BY SLOWER, LOWER LEVEL FLOW. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE LLCC AND CONVECTION ARE ALREADY WELL SEPARATED...

AND TC 04S WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE TO 25C AFTER TAU 18...

THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 18 FEET.}}}

 

Watch Live from METEOSAT-8

PKANHYE.       Updated: 8.44 am TUESDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2018.       

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