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GAJA Cyclonic Storm-Bay of Bengal

Pre-Winter Season 2018

The whole of Indian Ocean is under the rare phenomenon of simultaneous formations of Cyclones. While the Southern Ocean is experiencing a dual Weather System-ALCIDE and BOUCHRA, The Northern Hemisphere has begotten –GAJA Cyclonic Storm in the Bay of Bengal. It is highly likely to evolve into further intensifications within 4-5 days. Moreover, Very Severe Air quality prevailing in India is likely to cause chocking breath for the population.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its Press Release today 11 November 2018 as follows:

/// PRESS RELEASE

Time of issue: 1230 hours IST Dated: 11-11-2018

Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘GAJAover Eastcentral and adjoining Westcentral & Southeast Bay of Bengal (Cyclone Alert for north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coasts: Yellow Message)

Yesterday’s depression over southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) intensified into a deep depression (DD) in the same evening over southeast & adjoining central BoB. Moving further west-northwestwards, it intensified into a cyclonic storm (CS) “Gaja” over eastcentral and adjoining westcentral & southeast BoB in the early morning of today, the 11th November, 2018...

It lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 11th November, 2018 over the same region near latitude 13.5°N and longitude 88.9°E, about 460 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman Islands), 930 km east-northeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 980 km east-southeast of Sriharikota (Andhra Pradesh)...

It is very likely to intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards during next 36 hours and then west-southwestwards towards north Tamil Nadu – south Andhra Pradesh coasts during subsequent 48 hours. However, while moving west-southwestwards, it is likely to weaken gradually and cross north Tamil Nadu – south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore (Tamil Nadu) and Sriharikota as a Cyclonic Storm during 15th November forenoon.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Date/Time(IST) Position

(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)

Maximum sustained surface

wind speed (Kmph)

Category of cyclonic disturbance

11.11.18/0830 13.5/88.9 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm

11.11.18/1130 13.6/88.7 65-75 gusting to 85 Cyclonic Storm

11.11.18/1730 13.8/88.2 70-80 gusting to 90 Cyclonic Storm

11.11.18/2330 14.0/87.7 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm

12.11.18/0530 14.2/87.3 90-100 gusting to 115 Severe Cyclonic Storm

12.11.18/1730 14.5/86.5 95-105 gusting to 120 Severe Cyclonic Storm

13.11.18/0530 14.5/85.7 100-110 gusting to 125 Severe Cyclonic Storm

13.11.18/1730 14.4/84.9 100-110 gusting to 125 Severe Cyclonic Storm

14.11.18/0530 14.1/84.0 95-105 gusting to 120 Severe Cyclonic Storm

14.11.18/1730 13.7/82.7 90-100 gusting to 115 Severe Cyclonic Storm

15.11.18/0530 13.2/81.2 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm

15.11.18/1730 12.6/79.5 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression

Warnings:

(i) Heavy rainfall warning

Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely to commence over north coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining south coastal Andhra Pradesh from evening of 14th November. Rainfall intensity is very likely to increase gradually thereafter with rainfall at most places and heavy to very heavy at a few places and extremely heavy falls (≥ 20 cm) at isolated places very likely over north Tamil Nadu and at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places very likely over south Tamil Nadu, south Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema on 15th November.

Rainfall at most places with heavy rainfall at isolated places likely over Andaman Islands on 11th November 2018 and decrease thereafter.

(ii) Wind warning

Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph very likely over and around Andaman Islands and north Andaman Sea during next 12 hours.

Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph prevails over eastcentral and adjoining westcentral & southeast Bay of Bengal. It is very likely to increase gradually becoming 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph over west central & adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal from morning of 12th November 2018.

Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph likely to commence along & off north Tamil Nadu – south Andhra Pradesh coasts from 14th November morning. It is very likely to increase gradually becoming Gale wind speed 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph along & off north Tamil Nadu – south Andhra Pradesh coasts over west central & adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal from 14th November mid-night onwards.

(iii) Sea condition

The sea condition is rough to very rough over north Andaman Sea. It is high over eastcentral and adjoining westcentral & southeast Bay of Bengal. It will become ‘very high’ over west central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal on 12th and over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal during 13-14 November and high over the same area on 15th. The sea condition is very likely to be rough to very rough along and off Tamil Nadu -south Andhra Pradesh coasts from 14th November morning and high from 14th November mid-night.

(iv) Fishermen Warning

The fishermen are advised not to venture into Andaman Sea during next 12 hours, over central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal during 11th – 13th and over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal from 12th November onwards.

The fishermen, who are in deep Sea are advised to return to coasts by tomorrow, 12th November, 2018.///

Uploaded: 10.54 pm SUNDAY 11 NOVEMBER 2018.

 

In its Press Release dated 16 November 2018, IMD mentioned about the WEAKENNING trend of Severe Cyclonic Storm GAJA, also of the Probable Impacts of RAINS and Winds/Gusts mainly in Regions: Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Kerala:

/// PRESS RELEASE

Time of issue: 1340 hours IST Dated: 16-11-2018

Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘GAJA’ over interior Tamilnadu

Yesterday’s Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Gaja’ moved west-southwestwards and crossed Tamilnadu & Puducherry coast between Nagapattinam and Vedaranniyam near latitude 10.5 0N and longitude 79.8 0E with wind speed of 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph during 0030 to 0230 hours IST of today, the 16th November, 2018...

Thereafter, it moved nearly westwards, and weakened into a cyclonic storm in the early morning and further into a Deep Depression in the forenoon of today. It lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 16th November, 2018 over interior Tamilnadu near latitude 10.5°N and longitude 77.6°E, about 80 km northwest of Madurai. It is very likely to move nearly westwards and weaken further into a depression during next six hours and into a well-marked low pressure area during subsequent 12 hours...

Warnings:

(i) Heavy rainfall warnings:

Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at a few places and very heavy at isolated places over south interior Tamil Nadu and heavy falls at isolated places over north interior Tamil Nadu during next 24 hours. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places very likely over Kerala during next 24 hours.

Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over Lakshadweep on 17th Nov, 2018.

(ii) Wind warning

Squally wind speed 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph very likely over interior Tamil Nadu around the centre of deep depression during next 06 hours. It would gradually decrease becoming squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over same area during subsequent six hours.

Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph very likely along & off Kerala coast from 16th November evening for subsequent 48 hours.

(iii) Sea condition

Along with squally weather, sea condition will be rough along & off Kerala coast from 16th November evening for subsequent 48 hours.

(iv) Action Suggested:

The fishermen are advised not to venture into Arabian Sea along & off Kerala coast from 16th November evening for subsequent 48 hours. ///

Updated: 11.50 am SUNDAY 18 NOVEMBER 2018.  

 

Disaster Resilience is theWealth of the Nation’

According to one Indian media, 33 persons lost their life in Tamil Nadu due to the Disastrous Impacts of Severe Cyclonic Storm GAJA during 15 November 2018. The usual question is always: to what extent the local authorities: Disaster Management Authority, National Disaster Response Force and the Media fulfilled their Role as Multi-Sectoral Stakeholders in Awareness,  Preparedness, Adaptation and Mitigation of the Impacts of GAJA?

 

NOAA Climate Prediction Center was right in predicting Cyclogenesis for the Indian Ocean. See picture. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) too Alerted the formation of GAJA.

 

The IMD Scientists and Forecasters have made their Perfect Prediction of the formation, evolution and intensification of the Weather System. Alerts, Warnings and Advisories have been 100% Perfectly made and Disseminated to the relative stakeholders concerned. So, why so many people lost their life, livelihood and economic assets? Year in, year out, Cyclones come and go, yet individuals perish foolishly. The Warnings do not reach those who are at risks. This demands Enquiry, which I intend to carry out in Tamil Nadu in December next. It should not be forgotten that Disaster Resilience is theWealth of the Nation’ .     

After making landfall across the Southern Indian Territory GAJA moved towards the Arabian Sea at about 20 km/h, influencing Lakshadweep Archipelago thereafter. The Remnants of GAJA have entered most of Arabian Sea. The Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and Dry Air prevailing there, are favourable for some slight intensification of ex-GAJA, but it will be on the verge of Dissipation soon, as explained by Scientist Patrick Hoareau of JTWC.

NB:

  • It must be remembered that there is another Tropical Depression which is evolving in the Bay of Bengal located almost where GAJA started. 
  • Tropical Cyclone USAGI-18 is currently likely to make landfall in South Vietnam causing Humanitarian Crisis and cross until Cambodia. See http://www.cambodiameteo.com/slideshow?menu=118&lang=en  

 So, keep watch.  

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Keep Watch for Updates.

PKANHYE.  Updated: 6.02pm WEDNESDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2018.     

 

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