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SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

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KENANGA Moderate Tropical Storm and

92 S INVEST another Best Prediction

Made for Indian Ocean

Whole Indian Ocean is under the influence of Dynamic Weather Systems. On one hand, Sri Lanka and the Eastern Territories of India are experiencing the evolution of Cyclonic Storm since 14 December. On the other side, Moderate Tropical Storm KENANGA initially known as “PEACEis moving in the direction of Mascarene Islands from the Indonesia. Another Zone of another Tropical Depression is taking birth in the Northern Area between Madagascar and the Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion Islands.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has signalled all these Weather Systems accurately. Météo-France-Réunion, which is the Regional l Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) has mentioned Cyclogenesis since a few days. Unfortunately, the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) seems to be still dormant at such crucial moments.  

The Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) of Indonesia issued its Press Release on 16 December 2018 as follows:

[[[A detected cyclone seedling has developed since December 12, 2018 in the Indian Ocean region and has finally become a tropical cyclone on Saturday December 15, 2018 at a distance of about 1,400 km from Bengkulu southwest of the island of SumatraTropical cyclone, which was later named the tropical cyclone "KENANGA", was formed in an area that is still the responsibility of the Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC). The analysis shows that this tropical cyclone has a maximum wind speed near the center of the cyclone reaching 40 knots, or about 75 km/hour.

Based on recent observations, this tropical cyclone will tend to move southwest away from Indonesia's territory and is estimated to be around 2,754 km from the Indonesian territory in the next 72 hours. This cyclone will have an indirect impact in the form of increasing wind speed in parts of the west coast of Sumatra and an increase in wave height of 2.5 - 4.0 meters in Kep waters. Mentawai to Sunda Strait.

Increased wind speed, which tends to be caused by air mass flow from the southern part of Central Indonesia, is also predicted to occur on the southern island of Java, including Banten, DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, NTB and NTT . The dominance of air masses from the south tends to reduce rainfall in parts of Sumatra and Java. However, on the contrary it increases rain intensity in the central and eastern parts of Indonesia.]]] 

http://www.bmkg.go.id/press-release/?p=siklon-tropis-kenanga-tumbuh-di-samudera-hindia-selatan-sumatera&tag=press-release&lang=ID

Scientific and Traditional Predictions

Scientists and Meteorologists of NASA, NOAA, JTWC, IMD, METEO-FRANCE and all others, have recourse to Numerical Models in order to Predict the formation and evolution of Weather Systems. Yet, Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge and Practices (TILK/P), too, has some sort of Modelling while Predicting Natural Calamities. This may be astonishing for many, but this is an Innovative Knowledge, which is complementary to Scientific Forecasts.

The formation of a Cyclonic System in Mid-December 2018 in South Indian Ocean Basin was Predicted since April 2018, when Cyclone Flamboyant at Longitude 91.90 East was named on 28 April by BMKG of Indonesia. Mention was made in social media and during interaction with local people of Mauritius, that a Cyclone will take birth in the Southern Indian Ocean before 15 December 2018. Severe Tropical Cyclone ALCIDE, tiny in nature took birth on 23 October 2018 in the North-East of Madagascar, was almost before the Summer Season. Moderate Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA forming on 11 October 2018, was, too, pre-seasonal. Besides, BOUCHRA evolved near the Zone of Indonesia.

Moderate Tropical Storm KENANGA has started its lifespan fromSouth-West of Indonesia as from 14 December 2018. It was initially named as “PEACE”. It is moving at a slow speed of 5 km/h in the South South-West direction. It is forecast to track near Rodrigues Island during several days. Lots of Rains are associated with it, as BMKG has forecast Heavy Rains for various of its territories. 

 

Moreover, another Tropical Disturbance is oozing out in the North of Mascarene Islands. As mentioned in earlier articles that the unprecedented abundance of Litchis and Mangoes in Mauritius, indicate the approach of Disastrous Cyclones. Keep watch, especially on my Tour/ Survey in India, Sri Lanka and probably Bangladesh as from 19 December 2018.

  

See LIVE with MMS here.

Keep Watching. 

PKANHYE. 11.48 pm 16 SUNDAY 2018. 

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