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CILIDA Moderate Tropical Storm

Another Perfect Prediction for

Season 2018-2019 in South Indian Ocean

          

Traditional, Indigenous, Local Knowledge and Practices (TILK/P) have a tremendous complementary contribution to Science, as far as the Prediction and Forecasting of Natural Calamities are concerned. Such mention has often been made in the last and previous articles on this Website. Mauritius, including Rodrigues Islands are witnessing unprecedented blossoming and production of tropical fruits, mainly Litchis and Mangoes. Such a Natural Phenomenon has traditionally been known and understood by our local folks. No doubt, other parametres like heat, humidity and cloud observations, in addition to Wind direction from the ground and at sea, help in the Prediction of Natural Events. The formation of intensifying KENANGA, in the East of Southern Indian Ocean, is another proof. Refer to the previous article.

The WMO is well-attuned to the application of such ‘Life-Saving-Tools’ and is requested to activate fully and to explore further such priceless resources.

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has named the Low Pressure evolving rapidly as Tropical Disturbance and Tropical Depression, as Moderate Tropical Storm CALIDA. Located at Latitude 11.00 South and Longitude 60.00 East is a potential threat to all the Mascarene Islands of the South-West Indian Ocean Basin.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has been monitoring this Weather Event, including others, perfectly.

The Special Weather Bulletin issued by the MMS this morning reads as follows:

[[[Special Weather Bulletin. Wed, Dec 19, 2018

Brief on Moderate Tropical Storm evolving to the east of Agalega. Issued at 1130 hours on 19 December 2018.

The tropical disturbance located to the east of Agalega intensified into a tropical depression during the night. Evolving in a favourable environment, the depression reached the Moderate Tropical Storm stage and has been named CILIDA at 1000 hours today by the Mauritius Meteorological Services.

At 10.00 hours this morning CILIDA was centered at about 480 km to the east of Agalega Island in latitude 11.0 degrees south and Longitude 61.0 degrees east.  Movement is slow towards the south at first.   

There are indications that Cilida will start to move in a general south westerly direction as from this evening while continuing to intensify. It is likely that it will become a tropical cyclone by Friday 21 morning.

The approach of a trough in the upper atmosphere from the west is likely to re-curve the trajectory of the system towards the south. The centre of the system may then pass at about 150 km to the west-southwest of St Brandon in the afternoon of 22 December 2018. Thereafter, the Cilida will assume a south-easterly track, passing between Mauritius and Rodrigues on Sunday 23 December 2018 during the day.  

Weather at St Brandon

Cloud bands associated with the storm are likely to influence weather at St Brandon as from Thursday 20 December 2018 with moderate showers and strong gusts, together with high seas.  The showers are likely to be heavy with thunderstorms as Cilida continues to approach the Island. There is still a chance that cyclonic conditions may prevail on the Island on the 22 December 2018 in the afternoon.  

Weather at Mauritius

Cloud bands associated with Cilida are likely to cross Mauritius as from Friday 21 December evening with few passing showers. The showers may become more frequent and of moderate intensity on Saturday with isolated thunderstorms. The weather is likely to deteriorate further on Sunday with gusts strengthening and the sea becoming very rough to high. Wind gusts are likely to reach 90 km/h on Sunday 23 December 2018.

Weather at Rodrigues

Clouds associated with Cilida are likely to cross Rodrigues as well as from Friday 21 December evening with few passing showers. The weather will become windy with frequent passing showers together with rough seas on Saturday and Sunday.

This brief will be updated tomorrow, Thursday 20 December 2018 at around 10.30 hours local time.]]]

Watch LIVE with MMS-http://metservice.intnet.mu/satellite-anim.php

 

Uploaded from Mumbai, India.

11.55 pm WEDNESDAY 19 DECEMBER 2018.

 

While KENANGA has undergone further intensification as Severe Tropical Storm with a well-defined Eye Feature, CILIDA has intensified rapidly into Severe Tropical Storm early Thursday 20 December 2018. The MMS released the following:  

[[[ Special Weather Bulletin

Thu, Dec 20, 2018

Brief on Severe Tropical Storm CILIDA issued at 1030 hours on 20 December 2018.

At night, CILIDA has intensified into a severe tropical storm.

At 1000 hrs this morning, severe tropical storm 'CILIDA' was centred around the point 12.5 degrees South in latitude and 59.6 degrees East in longitude that is about 850 km to the North North East of Mauritius.

It is moving towards the South West at about 8 km/h.

Cilida will continue to move in a general south westerly direction while intensifying further. It is likely that it will become a tropical cyclone by this afternoon Thursday 20.

The approach of a trough in the upper atmosphere from the west is likely to re-curve the trajectory of the system towards the south. The centre of the system may then pass at about 150 km to the west-southwest of St Brandon in the afternoon of 22 December 2018. Thereafter, Cilida will move on a south-easterly track, passing between Mauritius and Rodrigues on Sunday 23 December 2018 during the day.

TILK/P have indicated, as an Early Warning System (EWS) that Disastrous Cyclonic Systems are highly likely to strike Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion Islands. A Cyclone Warning Class 1 has thus been issued by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) at 4.10 pm today Thursday 20 December 2018.]]]

[[[Cyclone Warning Bulletin Mauritius (English Version)

Thu, Dec 20, 2018

A cyclone warning Class One is in force in Mauritius
A cyclone warning Class One is in force in Mauritius


First Cyclone Bulletin for Mauritius issued at 16h10 on Thursday 20 December 2018.

Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that 'CILIDA' has
intensified into a tropical cyclone.

At 1600 hours, tropical cyclone 'CILIDA' was centred in latitude 13.1 degrees South and longitude 59.1 degrees East, that is at about 775 kilometres to the North North East of Mauritius.

It is moving in a south westerly direction at about 10 km/h while strengthening. However a change in the trajectory towards the south east is expected by tomorrow evening. On this new trajectory 'CILIDA' will approach our region and could pass between Mauritius  and Rodrigues by mid-day  on Sunday 23 December and causing a marked deterioration of weather on the island.

A cyclone warning class one is therefore in force in Mauritius

The public in Mauritius is advised to take preliminary precautions.

Active cloud bands associated with 'CILIDA' will influence the weather as from Friday evening causing passing showers which could be more frequent on Saturday.

Wind will blow from the East South East at 25 km/h with gusts reaching 60 km/h in exposed areas. It is expected that the wind will strenghten as from Saturday and gusts may reach 90 km/h on Sunday morning.

The open sea will become gradually rough as from tomorrow evening.

A cyclone warning class one is in force in Mauritius.
A cyclone warning class one is in force in Mauritius.


The next bulletin will be issued by 2210 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES DURING A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS I

Ensure that your house is in good condition and can withstand cyclone gusts.
Secure windows and doors with shutters or shields.
Verify that the all antennas are well secured on roof tops.
Trim tree branches likely to cause damages to your house, telephone and electricity lines.
Clear your property of loose material that can cause injury and damage during extreme winds.
Identify secure places for your boat.
Be acquainted with the nearest cyclone refugee centres.

Prepare an emergency kit consisting of:
Portable AM/FM radio and fresh batteries
Torch, lamps, candles, matches, etc.
Water containers Canned food, can opener, stove with sufficient gas
Rice, flour, biscuits, cheese, etc
First aid kit and essential medicines
Clothes secured in plastic bags
Tool kit for emergency repairs (hammer, nail, rope, etc.)
Monitor cyclone bulletins on Radio/TV.
]]]

Uploaded from Mumbai, India.

9.56 pm 20 THURSDAY 20 DECEMBER 2018.

 

KENANGA Weakened into Moderate Tropical Storm and is moving towards West South-West at 08 km/h at a distance of 1590 km East North-East of Rodrigues Island.

  

Whereas, CILIDA strengthened further into Intense Tropical Cyclone on Friday 21 December. Given, that its Trajectory is Forecast to cruise between the land masses of Rodrigues and Mauritius Cyclone Warnings were issued as shown below.

[[[Cyclone Warning Bulletin Rodrigues (French Version)

Fri, Dec 21, 2018

Un avertissement de cyclone de classe I est en vigueur à Rodrigues

Un avertissement de cyclone de classe I est en vigueur à Rodrigues

Deuxième Bulletin Cyclone pour Rodrigues émis à 16h10 ce vendredi 21 décembre 2018.

À 16 00 heures, le cyclone tropical intense 'CILIDA' était centré en latitude 15.1 degrés sud et longitude 57.6 degrés est, soit à environ 790 kilomètres presqu'au au nord-ouest de Rodrigues.

Il continue de se déplacer vers le sud-ouest à environ 10 km / h. Toutefois, il y a des indications que durant les derniers heures 'CILIDA' entame un mouvement vers le sud; ce qui confirme la trajectoire anticipée vers le sud-est pour ce soir. Sur cette nouvelle trajectoire 'CILIDA' s'approche de notre région et pourrait passer entre Maurice et Rodrigues le matin du dimanche 23 Décembre. La ceinture de vents forts et les bandes nuageuses actives pourraient influencer le temps à Rodrigues à partir de samedi soir. ]]]

 

[[[Cyclone Warning Bulletin Mauritius (English Version)

Fri, Dec 21, 2018

A cyclone warning Class II is in force in Mauritius
A cyclone warning Class II is in force in Mauritius


Fifth Cyclone Bulletin for Mauritius issued at 16h10 on Friday 21 December 2018.

At 1600 hours,
Intense Tropical Cyclone CILIDA was centered in latitude 15.1 degrees south and longitude 57.6 degrees east, that is at about 550 kilometers to the North of Mauritius.

It continues to move in a south westerly direction at about 10 km/h. However, during the last hours there are indications that
CILIDA has started to track towards the south confirming the anticipated movement towards the southeast by this evening. On this new trajectory 'CILIDA' is approaching our region and is likely to pass between Mauritius and Rodrigues in the morning of Sunday 23 December...

A marked deterioration of the weather is expected as from Saturday night and cyclonic conditions may be experienced over Mauritius on Sunday.]]]

 

 Uploaded from MUMBAI, INDIA.

4.25 pm SATURDAY 22 DECEMBER 2018. 

 

Comments

The populations of Mauritius and Rodrigues have outlived a lucky escape because Intense Tropical Cyclone CILIDA did make any landfall on these Territories. It is a precious gift offered by Santa Klaus for this 2018 Christmas.

CILIDA is now ex-Tropical after cruising between Mauritius and Rodrigues. It is on the way of dissipation, just like KENANGA, in the cool waters of the South Pole which is the Strongest, Windiest and Coldest place of the Blue Marble. A ‘Fujiwhara’ Effect (Fusion of two Weather Systems) was not possible between KENANGA and CALIDA, given the far distance between the two. 

Conclusion

CILIDA and KENANGA are another set of vivid examples of Weather Prediction by applying Traditional, Indigenous Local Knowledge and Practices (TILK/P), as mentioned above.

NB: TILK/P is also recognized as a Life-Saving-Tool’ by WMO.

While the Scientific World uses Numerical Models to Predict and Forecast Hurricanes, Typhoons and Cyclones, Floods, etc., TILK/P, too, is capable of Predicting Natural Calamities. A new concept is being developed through this Website, to the fact that Models can also be drawn by applying TILK/P. This has been the major discussion carried out during my respective meetings with Deputy Director Generals K.S. Hosalikar and S. Balachandran of Mumbai and Chennai. Refer to the pictures here. The Irresponsible Role of the Media was also in the focus.

    

 

 Watch LIVE from: https://www.windy.com/?-27.274,73.674,5

Uploaded from Chennai.

Updated:  11.30 am Tuesday 25 December 2018. 

 

According to PMO India Newsletter dated-28 December 2018:

PM outlines India’s surge towards becoming a five trillion dollar economy at Republic TV Summit’… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjeJYv1Tgek

‘According to International Monetary Fund October 2018 database, the Indian economy is estimated to be the fastest-growing among the major economies in the world in the present financial year 2018-2019 and the upcoming FY20.’

Yet, the population of Chennai, Tamil Nadu seem to be confronting language barrier, as it is rather a closed society. The working force coming from other states is multilingual and thus help to translate the local tamil language and or act as interpreters for the rest of the world.

 

Some politicians are so rich as to be capable of financing partially or totally television and radio stations in order to keep their image. Besides, the Media in Chennai, just like in other states and countries do not play their role as Stakeholders in the Early Warning Systems (EWS). The ‘top-down’ dissemination channel of Alerts and Warnings issued by IMD continues to be distorted, digressed and delayed (ddd), as mentioned in earlier articles. Therefore, entertainment,sensationalism, paparazzi and politics still linger. These are the loopholes causing Disaster Resilience to be remote for India and for other countries.

However, some people are keen to enhance their knowledge in Awareness, Preparedness, Adaptation, Mitigation and Rehabilitation, both Science-Wise and Traditional-Wise. The WMO and UNISDR are therefore requested to consider providing training to the Media, without any exception. This has been very often suggested through this Website. 

This is only a brief made in light of article regarding the Loss of 33 Lives during Severe Cyclonic Storm GAJA:This demands Enquiry, which I intend to carry out in Tamil Nadu in December next. It should not be forgotten thatDisaster Resilience is the Wealth of the Nation’.”    

http://www.kanhye.com/9-climate-weather/178-gaja-cyclonic-storm-bay-of-bengal-pre-winter-season-2018 

 

Keep Watch on the SEVERE COLD WAVE and SNOWFALLS WARNING issued by IMD Delhi for 28 December 2018 to 03 January 2019.

Haryana, India has experienced 10c on 26 December, while Nepal has recorded 10c to 5.40c with an exceptional temperature reaching -70c in Jumla.

 

http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/press_release_view.php?ff=20181227_pr_388

http://www.mfd.gov.np/

      

Uploaded from Vanarasi, India.

PKANHYE    7.30 pm Saturday  29 December 2018.

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Read More: 

KENANGA Moderate Tropical Storm and 92 S INVEST another Best Prediction Made for Indian Ocean.;

PHETHAI named (94B INVEST/Deep Depression) in Northern Indian Ocean and evolving since 14 December 2018 is Predicted to intensify further and make landfall in two days’ time.;

GAJA Cyclonic Storm- Bay of Bengal Pre-Winter Season 2018;

UNISDR 2018- Reducing Disaster Economic Losses in Relation to Global GDP by 2030, etc.

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