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PABUK Cyclonic Storm-

Thailand, Andaman, Myanmar and Bay of Bengal

Another Winter Phenomenon

The North-Western Pacific Zone and the Tropic of Cancer are still giving birth to Storms despite the Winter Season 2019. The Deep Depression which formed at the dawn of New Year 2019 in South China Sea has intensified and has been named as a PABUK Cyclonic Storm. It has moved towards Thailand. Myanmar, Andaman Islands and Bay of Bengal are also on its track.

India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of South Asia, issued its Advisories as mentioned below.

[[[PRESS RELEASE-2 

Time of issue: 1300 hours IST Dated: 04-01-2019

Sub: Cyclonic storm “PABUK” over Gulf of Thailand & adjoining Thailand and its emergence into Andaman Sea on 05th January 2019: Pre-cyclone watch for Andaman Islands.

 

Yesterday’s cyclonic storm “PABUK” over south China Sea moved west-northwestwards during past 24 hours with a speed of 21 kmph and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of 04th January 2019 over Gulf of Thailand and adjoining Thailand near latitude 8.3°N and longitude 101.0° E, about 990 km eastsoutheast of Port Blair...

It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and emerge into Andaman Sea by tomorrow forenoon. Thereafter, it is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Andaman Islands around evening/night of 06th January. Thereafter, it is very likely to move north-northwestwards and then recurve northeastwards towards Myanmar coast and weaken further during 7th-8th January, 2019.

Warnings: 

(i) Heavy rainfall warning

Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places likely to commence over Andaman Islands from 5th January evening. Intensity is very likely to increase with rainfall at most places and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places on 6th and at isolated places on 7th.

(ii) Wind warning

Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely to commence over Andaman Sea along and off south Myanmar and Thailand coast from today evening. It is very likely to increase gradually becoming 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 over Andaman Sea on 5th and over Andaman Islands, Andaman Sea and adjoining areas of eastcentral and southeast Bay of Bengal on 6th and 7th.

(iii) Sea condition

The sea condition will be rough to very rough over Andaman Sea along and off south Myanmar and Thailand coast from today evening. It is very likely to become very rough to high over Andaman Sea on 5th and over Andaman Sea and adjoining areas of eastcentral and southeast Bay of Bengal on 6th and 7th.

(iv) Fishermen Warning

Total suspension of fishing operations over Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast & eastcentral Bay of Bengal during 4th-7th January.

The system is under continuous surveillance and concerned state Governments are being informed regularly.]]]

 

IMD released its Warning Advisories, with an ORANGE Alert for Andaman Islands, on Saturday 05 January 2019 at 17.00 hrs as follows:

[[[BULLETIN NO. : 10 (BOB/01/2019)

TIME OF ISSUE: 1700 HOURS IST DATED: 05.01.2019

Sub: Cyclonic Storm „PABUK over Andaman Sea & neighbourhood- Cyclone warning for Andaman Islands ORANGE MESSAGE

The cyclonic storm ‘PABUK’ over Andaman Sea & neighbourhood moved further westnorthwestwards with a speed of 13 kmph in past 06 hours. It lay centered at 1430 hours IST of today, the 05th January, 2019 over Andaman Sea & neighbourhood near latitude 9.5°N and longitude 97.3°E, about 550 km east-southeast of Port Blair. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards for some more time. Thereafter, it is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Andaman Islands around evening of 06th January as a Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph. Thereafter, it is very

likely to move north-northwestwards and then recurve northeastwards towards Myanmar coast and weaken gradually during 07th-08th January, 2019.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Date/Time(IST) Position

(Lat.°N/ long.°E)

Maximum sustained surface

wind speed (Kmph)

Category of cyclonic

Disturbance

05.01.19/1430    9.5/97.3 70-80 gusting to 90     Cyclonic Storm

05.01.19/1730   9.7/96.7  70-80 gusting to 90   Cyclonic Storm

05.01.19/2330   10.1/95.8  75-85 gusting to 95  Cyclonic Storm

06.01.19/0530   10.5/94.8  75-85 gusting to 95  Cyclonic Storm

06.01.19/1130   11.0/93.8  70-80 gusting to 90  Cyclonic Storm

06.01.19/2330   11.9/92.3  70-80 gusting to 90  Cyclonic Storm

07.01.19/1130   12.7/91.1  65-75 gusting to 85  Cyclonic Storm

07.01.19/2330   13.6/90.3  55-65 gusting to 75  Deep Depression

08.01.19/1130   15.1/90.7  45-55 gusting to 65  Depression

08.01.19/2330   17.0/91.7  30-40 gusting to 50   Well Marked Low.

 

Warnings:

(i) Heavy rainfall warning

Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over Andaman Islands on today, the 5th January. Its intensity is very likely to increase with rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places on 6th and at isolated places on 7th over Andaman Islands.

(ii) Wind warning

Gale wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph is likely to prevail over Andaman Islands, Andaman Sea and adjoining areas of eastcentral and southeast Bay of Bengal till 7th morning. It is very likely to gradually decrease thereafter becoming 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman Islands and adjoining Andaman Sea & eastcentral Bay of Bengal by 8th morning and 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal by 8th evening.

Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely to over Nicobar Islands till 6th.

 

(iii) Sea condition

The sea condition will be high over Andaman Islands, Andaman Sea and adjoining areas of eastcentral and southeast Bay of Bengal from the evening of 5th till the morning of 7th. Thereafter, it will become very rough over southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman Islands and adjoining Andaman

Sea and eastcentral Bay of Bengal by 8th morning and rough over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal by 8th evening.

The sea condition will be very rough over Nicobar Islands till 6th.

(iv) Storm Surge Warning

Storm surge of height of about 0.5 m above the astronomical tides likely to inundate the low lying areas of Andaman Islands at the time of landfall.

(v) Damage Expected over Andaman Islands:

Damage to thatched huts, minor damage to power and communication lines due to breaking of branches. Major damage to Kutcha and damage to Pucca roads. Uprooting of small trees and some damage to paddy crops, banana, papaya trees and orchards. Sea water inundation in low lying areas after erosion of Kutcha embankments.

(vi) Action suggested

People in Andaman Islands are advised to remain in safe places.

Total suspension of fishing operation over Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast and eastcentral Bay of Bengal till 7th January and over eastcentral & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal on 8th.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast and eastcentral Bay of Bengal during the same period. 

The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of 05th January, 2019.

(Naresh Kumar) Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi.]]]

 

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Uploaded from Vanarasi, India.

PKANHYE.          10.20 pm SATURDAY 05 JANUARY 2019.

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