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FANI Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

Heralded by Observation of Clouds from the Ground

And from Cyclogenesis Outlook by India Meteorological Department.

                                                         
   

PABUK Cyclonic Storm took birth at the dawn of New Year 2019 in South China Sea and during the Winter Season. After intensifying it moved towards Thailand, Myanmar, Andaman Islands and Bay of Bengal. Heavy Rains and Storm Surge affected Andaman Islands, but PABUK stayed in the Sea of Bay of Bengal.

FANI Cyclonic Storm formed on 19 April 2019. India Meteorological Department (IMD) mentioned this in its Cyclogenesis Outlook for period 19 to 25 April 2019. However, the second week of the Outlook 26 April to 02 May did not do so. It is understandable that the Probability of Cyclone formation was weak, that is 33%. This period is also the transition from Winter Season to Summer Monsoon which is due one month ahead.

Yet, the Observation of Clouds made from the Ground of Arrah, Bihar, India clearly indicated the oncoming Cyclonic System. Refer to the picture taken at 6.33 pm Friday 19 April 2019. This crystalizes the concept that Scientific Forecasts are based on Numerical Models. But, it is also known that they are not 100% Perfect. However, Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) has been 100% Perfect. The Formation of FANI was indicated by Mother Nature since Friday 19 April 2019-6 days beforehand. It should also be noted that the application of Traditional Knowledge (TILK/P) is always complementary to Scientific Forecasts of Natural Hazards. This has been approved by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland. Read various articles in this Website.

FANI is forecast to intensify into Very Severe Tropical Storm by Monday 29 April until 02 May 2019. This Weather System is highly likely to affect seriously Sri Lanka and and Eastern zone of India, especially Tamil Nadu, Puduchery and Andra Pradesh regions. So, the populations of these zones are STRONGLY requested to get prepared immediately and act according to the Warnings published by IMD.

Refer to the Advisories launched by IMD since 25 April (etd).

 

{{{PRESS RELEASE-2

Time of issue: 1340 hours IST                        Dated: 26-04-2019

Sub: Depression over east Equatorial Indian Ocean & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal.

Yesterday’s well low marked low pressure area over east Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) intensified into depression over the same region and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 26th April, 2019 near latitude 2.7°N and longitude 89.7°E, about 1140 km east-southeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 1490 km southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 1760 km south-southeast of Machilipatnam (Andhra Pradesh). It is very likely to intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hours and into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 12 hours. It is very likely to move northwestwards off Sri Lanka coast during next 4 days and reach near north Tamilnadu & south Andhra Pradesh coast on 30th April 2019 evening.

Date/Time(IST)    Lat./ Long    Maximum wind speed (Kmph)    Category

26.04.19/0830  2.7/89.7   40-50 gusting to 65   Depression

26.04.19/1730   3.8/89.1  45-55 gusting to 65   Depression

27.04.19/0530 4.9/88.3    50-60 gusting to 70    Deep Depression

27.04.19/1730   6.4/87.2  60-70 gusting to 80   Cyclonic Storm

28.04.19/0530  7.7/86.3  70-80 gusting to 90   Cyclonic Storm

28.04.19/1730 9.0/85.3   80-90 gusting to 100   Cyclonic Storm

29.04.19/0530 10.0/84.5   90-100 gusting to 115   Severe Cyclonic Storm

29.04.19/1730  11.0/83.5 100-110 gusting to 125   Severe Cyclonic Storm

30.04.19/0530  11.7/82.7 110-120 gusting to 135   Severe Cyclonic Storm

 

Warnings:

(i) Heavy rainfall warning

Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over north coastal Tamil Nadu on 30th April & 1st May, 2019 and over Kerala on 29th & 30th April, 2019.

Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places also very likely over south coastal Andhra Pradesh on 30th April and light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh on 1st May, 2019.

(ii) Wind warning

Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph over East Equatorial Indian Ocean & adjoining central parts of south Bay of Bengal on 26th; gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph over Southwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean on 27th; 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph over Southwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean and along & off Sri Lanka coast on 28th and 90-100 kmph gusting to 115 kmph over Southwest Bay of Bengal, off Sri Lanka coast and north Tamilnadu & Puducherry coasts on 29th and 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph over southwest Bay of Bengal, off Tamilnadu & Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh Coasts on 30th .

Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph likely to commence along & off Tamilnadu & Puducherry coast, Comorin area and Gulf of Mannar from 28th morning, becoming squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph from 29th morning. It is very likely to become squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph from 30th morning along north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts.

Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph likely to commence over Kerala from 28th morning and becoming squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph from 29th morning.

(iii) Sea condition

The sea condition likely to be rough over East Equatorial Indian Ocean & adjoining central parts of south Bay of Bengal on 26th; rough to very rough over Southwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean on 27th.

The sea condition likely to be very rough to high over Southwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean and along & off Sri Lanka on 28th; high to very high over Southwest Bay of Bengal, along & off Sri Lanka, Puducherry, Tamilnadu & adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coasts on 29th & 30th.

(iv) Fishermen Warning

The fishermen are advised not to venture into deep sea areas of East Equatorial Indian Ocean & adjoining central parts of south Bay of Bengal on 26th; Southwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean on 27th; Southwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean and along & off Sri Lanka on 28th and Southwest Bay of Bengal, along & off Sri Lanka, Puducherry, Tamilnadu & adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coasts on 29th & 30th.

Those, who are out in deep sea areas are advised return to the coast by 28th April, 2019.

The system is under continuous surveillance and concerned state governments are being informed regularly.

MSW(knot)/kmph) Impact Action

28-33 /(5162 ) Very rough seas. Fishermen advised not to venture into open seas

34-49/(63-91) High to very high seas Total suspension of fishing operations.

50-63/(92-168) Very High seas Total suspension of fishing operations. }}}

 

{{{PRESS RELEASE-3  

Time of issue: 1610 hours IST Dated: 27-04-2019

Sub: Cyclonic Storm “FANI” over southeast Bay of Bengal & adjoining east Equatorial Indian Ocean.

Yesterday’s depression over east Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) and adjoining

southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) moved northwestwards, intensified into a deep depression in the early morning of today, the 27th April, 2019 over the same region. Moving further northwestwards, it intensified into Cyclonic Storm ‘FANI’ (pronounced as ‘FONI’) over southeast BoB & adjoining east EIO and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of 27th April, 2019 near latitude 5.2°N and longitude 88.5°E, about 880 km east-southeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 1250 km southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 1460 km south-southeast of Machilipatnam (Andhra Pradesh). It is very likely to intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours.

It is very likely to move northwestwards off Sri Lanka coast during next 72 hours and

reach near north Tamilnadu & south Andhra Pradesh coasts on 30th April 2019 evening and gradually recurve northeastwards thereafter.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Date/Time(IST)     Lat./ Long    Maximum wind speed (Kmph)    Category

27.04.19/1130 5.2/88.5   60-70 gusting to 80       Cyclonic Storm

27.04.19/1730  5.9/88.2   70-80 gusting to 90      Cyclonic Storm

27.04.19/2330  6.5/87.8   80-90 gusting to 100    Cyclonic Storm

28.04.19/0530  7.1/87.3   90-100 gusting to 115   Severe Cyclonic Storm

28.04.19/1130  7.6/86.9   95-105 gusting to 120   Severe Cyclonic Storm

28.04.19/2330  8.8/86.2   100-110 gusting to 125  Severe Cyclonic Storm

29.04.19/1130  0.1/85.4   110-120 gusting to 135   Severe Cyclonic Storm

29.04.19/2330  0.8/84.8  120-130 gusting to 145   Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

30.04.19/1130  11.6/84.2  130-140 gusting to 155   Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

30.04.19/233012.3/83.7  140-150 gusting to 165   Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

01.05.19/113012.9/83.4  145-155 gusting to 170   Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

01.05.19/2330  13.2/83.4  35-145 gusting to 160    Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

02.05.19/113013.7/83.8  125-135 gusting to 150   Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

Warnings:

(i) Heavy rainfall warning

Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over Kerala on 29th & 30th April, 2019. Light to moderate rainfall at few places over north coastal Tamil Nadu & coastal Andhra Pradesh on 30th April & 1st May, 2019.

ii) Wind warning

Gale wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph is prevailing over southeast Bay of Bengal & adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean. It is very likely to become 90-100 kmph gusting to 115 kmph over southwest Bay of Bengal and off Sri Lanka coast from 28th morning; 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph over southwest Bay of Bengal off north Tamilnadu & Puducherry coast from 29th night and 145-155 kmph gusting to 170 kmph over southwest & adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal off north Tamilnadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from 1st May morning.

Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph likely to commence along & off Tamilnadu & Puducherry coast, Comorin area and Gulf of Mannar from 28th morning, becoming squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph from 29th morning. It is very likely to become squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph from 30th morning along north Tamilnadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts.

Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph likely to commence over Kerala coast from 28th morning and becoming squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph on 29th & 30th.

(iii) Sea condition

The sea condition is high over southeast BoB & adjoining EIO. It is very likely to become very high over southwest BoB and off Sri Lanka coast from 28th morning; very high to phenomenal over southwest BoB, off north Tamilnadu & Puducherry coast from 29th night and phenomenal over southwest & adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal, off north Tamilnadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh Coasts from 1st May morning.

Sea conditions very likely to be rough to very rough along & off Puducherry,

Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh Coasts from 29th April to 1st May 2019.

(iv) Fishermen Warning

The fishermen are advised not to venture into deep sea areas of southeast BoB & adjoining EIO on 27th & 28th; over southwest BoB off Sri Lanka coast on 28th; southwest BoB off Sri Lanka, Puducherry, Tamilnadu & south Andhra Pradesh coasts from 29th April to 1st May.

Those, who are out in deep sea areas are advised return to the coast by 28th April, 2019.

The system is under continuous surveillance and concerned state governments are being informed regularly.}}}

  Uploaded:  1.20 pm SUNDAY 28 APRIL 2019.

 

FANI has intensified very rapidly during the last day and its status has been upgraded to Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm. it is currently moving at a speed of 13 km/h and is forecast to make landfall across Odisha, West Bengal, Srikakulam, Vijayanagaram & Visakhapatnam. The coastal zone of Andra Pradesh is Alerted on Orange Warning. IMD has issued its Press Release at 20.30 his evening and Fax Messages have been sent to the Stakeholders of the region now at High Risk. Damages and Losses are forecast for the fishing and agricultural sector and for the general public, who are very strongly requested to take all precautions for their Safety and Protection.

BULLETIN NO. : 41 (BOB/02/2019

TIME OF ISSUE: 2030 HOURS IST          DATED: 01.05.2019

FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (FAX NO. 24643965/24699216/24623220)

TO: CONTROL ROOM, NDM, MINISTRY OF HOME AFFAIRS (FAX.NO. 23092398/23093750)

CONTROL ROOM NDMA (FAX.NO. 26701729)

CABINET SECRETARIAT (FAX.NO.23012284, 23018638)

PS TO HONBLE MINISTER FOR S & T AND EARTH SCIENCES (FAX NO.23316745)

SECRETARY, MOES, (FAX NO. 24629777)

H.Q. (INTEGRATED DEFENCE STAFF AND CDS) (FAX NO. 23005137/23005147)

DIRECTOR GENERAL, DOORDARSHAN (23385843)

DIRECTOR GENERAL, AIR (23421105, 23421219)

PIB MOES (FAX NO. 23389042)

UNI (FAX NO. 23355841)

D.G. NATIONAL DISASTER RESPONSE FORCE (NDRF) (FAX NO. 26105912, 2436 3260)

DIRECTOR, PUNCTUALITY, INDIAN RAILWAYS (FAX NO. 23388503)

CHIEF SECRETARY, GOVT. OF ODISHA (FAX NO. 0674 -2536660)

CHIEF SECRETARY, ANDHRA PRADESH (FAX NO. 0863-2441029, 08645-246600)

CHIEF SECRETARY, TAMIL NADU (FAX NO. 044-25672304)

CHIEF SECRETARY, WEST BENGAL (FAX NO. 033-22144328)

CHIEF SECRETARY, PUDUCHERRY (FAX NO. 0413-2337575)

CHIEF SECRETARY, KERALA (FAX NO. 0471-2327176)

 

Sub: Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “FANI” over Westcentral Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for Odisha, West Bengal and Srikakulam, Vijayanagaram & Visakhapatnam Districts of Andhra Pradesh Coasts: Orange Message

The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm "FANI (pronounced as ‘FONI’) over Westcentral Bay of Bengal moved north-northeastwards with a speed of about 13 kmph in last six hours and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of 01st May, 2019 over Westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 14.9°N and longitude

84.1°E, about 570 km south-southwest of Puri (Odisha), 320 km south-southeast of Vishakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) and 760 km south-southwest of Digha (West Bengal).

 

It is very likely to move north-northeastwards and cross Odisha Coast between Gopalpur and Chandbali, around Puri during 3rd May afternoon with maximum sustained wind speed of 170-180 kmph gusting to 200 kmph.

The cyclone is being tracked by Doppler Weather Radars Chennai, Vishakhapatnam & Machilipatnam.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

 

01.05.19/1730 14.9/84.1 180-190 gusting to 210 Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

01.05.19/2330 15.3/84.2 180-190 gusting to 210 Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

02.05.19/0530 15.9/84.4 180-190 gusting to 210 Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

02.05.19/1130 16.6/84.6 175-185 gusting to 205 Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

02.05.19/1730 17.4/84.9 175-185 gusting to 205 Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

03.05.19/0530 18.4/85.2 170-180 gusting to 200 Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

03.05.19/1730 20.0/85.9 150-160 gusting to 175 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

04.05.19/0530 21.9/87.2 100-110 gusting to 120 Severe Cyclonic Storm

04.05.19/1730 23.8/88.9 65-75 gusting to 85    Cyclonic Storm

05.05.19/0530 25.8/90.9 40-50 gusting to 60    Depression

 

Warnings:

(i) Heavy rainfall warning

North Andhra Pradesh: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls (>20 cm) at isolated places very likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh (Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam and Vijayanagaram Districts) on 2nd May and with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places on 3rd May.

Odisha: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely over south coastal Odisha on 2nd May. It is likely to increase with moderate rainfall at most places and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls (>20 cm) at isolated places over coastal Odisha & adjoining districts of interior Odisha on 3rd. Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over north Odisha on 4th May.

West Bengal: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over coastal & adjoining districts of West Bengal on 3rd and with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal on 4th May. Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 4th May.

Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very rainfall very likely over Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya on 4th & 5th May.

(ii) Wind warning

Gale wind speed reaching 180-190 kmph gusting to 210 kmph is very likely to prevail over westcentral Bay of Bengal around system centre during next 24 hours and decrease thereafter.

Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is very likely to commence along & off north Andhra Pradesh & Odisha Coasts from 2nd May morning and become gale wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 85 kmph from 2nd May night. It is very likely to become 170-180 kmph gusting to 200 kmph along & off south Odisha & adjoining north Andhra Pradesh (Srikakulam District) coasts; and 90-100 kmph gusting to 115 kmph along & off remaining districts coastal Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh (Visakhapatnam and

Vijayanagaram Districts) by 3rd May noon for subsequent 12 hours and decrease thereafter.

Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is very likely along & off West Bengal coast on 2nd May. It would become gale wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 85 kmph from 3rd May evening and become 90-100 kmph gusting to 115 kmph from 4th May early morning for subsequent 12 hours and decrease thereafter.

(ii) Sea condition

The sea condition is phenomenal over westcentral Bay of Bengal, off north Andhra Pradesh Coasts till 03 May 2019 and over Northwest Bay of Bengal off Odisha & West Bengal during 02-04 May.

Sea conditions very likely to be very rough to high off north Tamilnadu, Puducherry, along & off south Andhra Pradesh Coasts till 03 May.

(iii) Storm surge Warning

Storm surge of about 1.5 meter height above astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri & Jagatsinghpur Districts of Odisha at the time of landfall.

(iv) Fishermen Warning

The fishermen are advised not to venture into deep sea areas of Southwest & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal, Southwest & adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal, along & off Puducherry, north Tamilnadu & south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 12 hours; over westcentral Bay of Bengal, along & off north Andhra Pradesh Coast till 03 May and over northwest & adjoining Westcentral Bay of Bengal along & off Odisha and West Bengal coasts during 2-4 May.

Those, who are out in deep sea above areas are advised to return to the coasts.

(v) (a) Damage Expected and Action suggested for Ganjam, Gajapati, Khurda, Puri, Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha.

(i) Extensive damage to all types of kutcha houses, some damage to old badly managed Pucca structures. Potential threat from flying objects.

(ii) Extensive uprooting of communication and power poles.

(iii) Disruption of rail/road link at several places.

(iv) Extensive damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards. (v) Blowing down of Palm and coconut trees. (vi) Uprooting of large bushy trees. (vii) Large boats and ships may get torn from their moorings.

Action Suggested:

(i) Total suspension of fishing operations.

(ii) Extensive evacuation from coastal areas.

(iii) Diversion or suspension of rail and road traffic.

(iv) People in affected areas to remain indoors.

(v) Movement in motor boats and small ships not advisable.

(b) Damage Expected and action suggested for Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Balasore districts of Odisha and east & west Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata districts of West Bengal and Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam and Vijayanagaram districts of Andhra Pradesh.

(i) Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.

(ii) Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.

(iii) Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. Minor disruption of railways, overhead powerlines and signaling systems.

(iv) Widespread damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards, falling of green

coconuts and tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down of bushy trees like mango.

(v) Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.

(vi) Visibility severely affected.

Action Suggested:

(i) Total suspension of fishing operations. Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas.

(ii) Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic.

(iii) People in affected areas to remain indoors.

(iv) Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.

The next bulletin will be issued at 2330 hrs IST of 01st May, 2019.

(Naresh Kumar)

Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi

Copy to: CRS, Pune/ACWC Kolkata/Chennai/CWC Bhubaneswar/CWC Visakhapatnam.}}}

         

http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/alert_view.php?ff=20190501_al_808

Keep watch for updates.

Uploaded from Arrah, Bihar, India (internet problem- persisting)

PKANHYE       Updated:11.35 pm WEDNESDAY 01 MAY 2019.              

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