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VAYU Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

Preceding and Delaying S-W Asian Monsoon System 2019

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The Weather Dynamics prevailing in South-West Asia indicate that Disasters from the Atmosphere, Land and Ocean/Sea are on the way of causing very heavy losses of the Wealth-of-the-Nation’. The Deadly and Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm FANI devastated mainly the State of Orissa located in the East of the Indian Subcontinent during 25-28 April 2019. The South-West Asian Monsoon System started with a delay of 7 days, as compared to the Onset date of 01 June 2019. Thus, Heat Waves and Drought were prolonged.

The Low Pressure in the Arabian Sea and adjoining Kerala developed rapidly into a Deep Depression and was named as VAYU (VAA'YU). This name in Hindi is translated into “AIR” for English language.

IMD Cyclogenesis has been correct, as compared to the uncertainties pronounced by other Numerical Models. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has stated on 07 June 2019 that the Cyclogenesis in the waters of the Arabian Sea, adjoining KERALA has a Low Probability of cyclone formation. However, it has also mentioned that the Cyclone formation is highly likely to intensify within 72 hours. Refer to IMD (as edited):

[[[Few numerical models are indicating development of low pressure area over southeast and adjoining eastcentral AS. However, there is large divergence w.r.t. intensification of the system. IMD GFS is indicating intensification of the system upto extremely severe cyclonic storm stage. ECMWF, GEFS and NEPS are indicating intensification upto depression stage only. These models are also indicating that the system is likely to move north-northwestwards initially and then west- northwestwards towards Oman coast. IITM CFSv2 guidance on cyclogenesis indicates 30-40% probability over eastcentral AS during week 1. Genesis Potential Parameter based on IMD GFS is also indicating potential zone for cyclogenesis during later half of week 1 over southeast & adjoining eastcentral AS.]]]

 

India Meteorological Department (IMD)/Delhi published its Advisories on 11 June 2019. The Forecast Track seems to pass along Goa and Maharashtra and reach Gujrat which will experience similar or more impacts than Orissa. See below (as edited).

 

{{{PRESS RELEASE-3

Time of issue: 1630 hours IST Dated: 11-06-2019

Sub: Deep Depression intensified into cyclonic storm VAYUover Arabian Sea Cyclone Warning for Gujarat Coast: Orange Message.

Yesterday’s deep depression over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea (AS) & Lakshadweep area moved north-northwestwards and intensified into cyclonic storm “VAYU” (pronounced as VAA'YU during same midnight (2330 hrs IST of 10th June). Thereafter, it moved nearly northwards, intensified slightly and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 11th June, 2019 near latitude 15.2°N and longitude 70.6°E over eastcentral AS, about 340 km west-southwest of Goa, 490 km south-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra) and 630 km nearly south of Veraval (Gujarat). It is very likely to intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours.

It is very likely to move nearly northwards and cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Mahuva around Veraval & Diu region as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with wind speed 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph during early morning of 13th June 2019.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Date/Time(IST) Position

(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)

Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)

Category of cyclonic disturbance

11.06.19/1130   15.2/70.6  80-90 gusting to 100Cyclonic Storm

11.06.19/1730   16.1/70.6  90-100 gusting to 115  Severe Cyclonic Storm

11.06.19/2330   16.7/70.6  95-105 gusting to 120 Severe Cyclonic Storm

12.06.19/0530   17.5/70.5  100-110 gusting to 125 Severe Cyclonic Storm

12.06.19/1130   18.4/70.5 105-115 gusting to 130Severe Cyclonic Storm

12.06.19/2330   19.9/70.4 110-120 gusting to 135Severe Cyclonic Storm

13.06.19/1130   21.3/70.2 110-120 gusting to 135Severe Cyclonic Storm

13.06.19/2330   22.0/69.9  80-90 gusting to 100Cyclonic Storm

14.06.19/1130   22.5/69.7  50-60 gusting to 70  Deep Depression

14.06.19/2330   23.1/69.3  30-40 gusting to 50   Depression

 

Warnings:

(i) Heavy rainfall warning:

Sub-Divisions 11 June 2019* 12 June 2019* 13 June 2019* 14 June 2019* Konkan & Goa.

Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places Widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places Fairly widespread rainfall

Saurashtra & Kutch

Rainfall at isolated places Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated Places Widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places.

South Gujarat Region

Rainfall at isolated places Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated Places Rainfall at a few places with heavy falls at isolated places Rainfall at a few places.

Note: * Rainfall till 0830 IST of next day.

Legends: Yellow: Be Updated; Orange- Be prepared; Red- Take action, Green: No warning

Heavy rain: 64.5-115.5 mm/day; Very heavy rain: 115.6-204.4 mm/day; Extremely heavy rain: more than 204.4 mm/day.

(ii) Wind warning

11th June: Gale Wind speed reaching 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph over Eastcentral Arabian Sea and 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph along & off North 

Maharashtra coast by 11th evening. It is very likely to be 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over Lakshadweep area, Kerala, Karnataka & south Maharashtra Coasts.

12th June: Wind speed is very likely to increase further becoming gale wind speed reaching 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Arabian Sea by 12th night. It is very likely to be 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph over Gujarat Coast from 12th morning and become gale wind speed reaching 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph by 12th night. It is very likely to be 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over Maharashtra Coast.

13th June: Gale wind speed of the order of 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph very likely over north Arabian Sea & Gujarat coast in morning hours and decrease gradually thereafter. It is very likely to be 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over north Maharashtra Coasts & northern parts of eastcentral Arabian Sea.

(iii) Sea condition

The Sea condition is very likely to be high to very high over eastcentral Arabian Sea on 11th. The sea condition is very likely to become very high to phenomenal over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Arabian Sea & Gujarat coast from 12th evening and over north Arabian Sea on 13th June 2019.

The sea condition is very likely to be rough over Lakshadweep area, along & off Kerala, Karnataka & south Maharashtra Coasts on 11th; rough to very rough along & off Maharashtra Coast on 12th; very rough to high along & off Gujarat, north Maharashtra Coasts & northern parts of eastcentral Arabian Sea on 13th June, 2019.

(iv) Fishermen Warning

The fishermen are advised not to venture into Southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area, along & off Kerala and Karnataka coasts on 11th; Eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra Coast on 11th & 12th; northeast Arabian sea and along & off Gujarat coast on 12th & 13th.

(v) Storm Surge Warning

Storm surge of height of about 1.0- 1.5 m above the astronomical tides likely to inundate the low lying coastal areas of Kutch, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Porbandar, Junagarh, Diu, Gir Somnath, Amreli and Bhavnagar districts at the time of landfall.

(vi) Damage Expected and Action suggested for Kutch, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Porbandar, Rajkot, Junagarh, Diu, Gir Somnath, Amreli and Bhavnagar districts of Gujarat:

(a) Damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly. b) Damage to power and communication lines. (c) Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. (d) Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees. (e) Major damage to coastal crops. (f) Damage to embankments/ salt pans.

(vii) Action suggested:

(a) Regulate road & rail traffic

(b) Total suspension of fishing operations.

(c) Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors.

(d) Movement in motor boats unsafe. (e) Inundation of low lying areas in the along the coasts due to heavy rainfall and storm surge. The system is under 

continuous surveillance and concerned state governments are being informed regularly.

Kindly visit www.imd.gov.in and www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in for updates on the system.

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO.17

FROM: RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)

     STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)

     STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)

     STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)

     STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)

     METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)

OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)

YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)

NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)

PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)

IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)

QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY No. 17 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0700 UTC OF 13.06.2019 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 13.06.2019.

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘VAYU’ (PRONOUNCED AS VAA’YU OVER NORTHEAST & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 08 KMPH IN LAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 13TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 20.4°N AND LONGITUDE 69.4°E OVER NORTHEAST & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 160 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIU, 110 KM SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT) AND 140 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF PORBANDAR (GUJARAT)...

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND THEN NORTHWESTWARDS SKIRTING THE SAURASHTRA COAST AFFECTING GIR SOMNATH, DIU, JUNAGARH, PORBANDAR AND DEVBHOOMI DWARKA WITH WIND SPEED 135-145 KMPH GUSTING TO 160 KMPH FROM AFTERNOON OF 13TH JUNE 2019 .

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

Date/Time(UTC) Position

(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)

Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)

Category of cyclonic disturbance

13.06.19/0300  20.4/69.4 135-145 gusting to 160 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

13.06.19/0600   20.8/69.4 135-145 gusting to 160 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

13.06.19/1200   21.2/69.3 135-145 gusting to 160 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

13.06.19/1800  21.5/69.1 130-140 gusting to 155  Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

14.06.19/0000  21.7/68.9 130-140 gusting to 155  Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

14.06.19/1200  22.0/68.5 120-130 gusting to 145  Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

15.06.19/0000 22.1/68.2 110-120 gusting to 135   Severe Cyclonic Storm

15.06.19/1200 22.2/67.8 100-110 gusting to 125   Severe Cyclonic Storm

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)

NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%

REMARKS:

AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY OF 0300 UTC ON 13TH JUNE, 2019 THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST & ADJOINING 

EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA IS T4.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN BET LAT 17°N TO 21.5°N LONG 64.5°E TO 71.5°E. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS -93° C.

AT 0300 UTC OF 13TH JUNE, VERAVAL (42909) (GUJARAT) REPORTED AND PORBANDAR PORBANDAR (42830) (GUJARAT) SHOW 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALL OF 6.0 & 4.9 HPA AND WIND DIRECTION/SPEED 120°/20 & 20°/25 KTS RESPECTIVELY. THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 HPA.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO PHASE 4 WITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN 1 AND REMAIN IN SAME PHASE FOR SUBSEQUENT 4 DAYS. HENCE, MJO PHASE WILL BE FAVOURABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER ARABIAN SEA...

CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 31˚C OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARABIAN SEA. IT DECREASES TO 29-30˚C NEAR GUJARAT COAST. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND (70-90) KJ/CM2 OVER THE SYSTEM AREA. IT IS LESS THAN 60 KJ/CM2 TO THE NORTH OF 200 N. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOUR IMAGERIES INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS CONTINUING TO THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS INCREASED AND NOW IS AROUND 300 X10-5 SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. POSITIVE VORTICITY PERSISTS UPTO 200 HPA LEVEL. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30 X10-5 S-1 TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30 X10-5S-1 TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM AREA. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 22° N. AS THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER SAUDI ARABIAN PENINSULA THE SYSTEM IS MOVING IN A NORTH- NORTHWESWARD DIRECTION AND IS LIKELY TO FURTHER CONTINUE MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION FOR SOME MORE TIME.

(SUNITHA DEVI)

SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI.}}}

 

According to Indian media, mentioned has been made that the category of VAYU is visiting the Sub-continent zone after 20 years. Moreover, Dr Hosalikar, the Deputy Director General of IMD, Colaba, Mumbai stated to the media today that such intensity is more prevalent in the Eastern Maritime Area of India. All the stake holders of the Disaster Management Authority are on high alert since today.

CLICK HERE to Follow VAYU VSTS Live from Gujrat, Ahmedabad Meteorological Centre.

 

UPLOADED from Mauritius @7.30 pm THURSDAY 13 JUNE 2019.

 

Other International Center

According to the Advisories published, at 3.00 hours of 15 June 2019, by The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Forecasts that VAYU is likely to weaken in intensity gradually and make landfall in the North-Western coast of India, Gujrat. But the Forecast Track indicates dissipation until borders of Pakistan and Iran. No doubt, the Sub-Tropical Ridge will influence the direction from West South-Westwards to North-East. See Track.

///REMARKS:

150300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 67.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM SOUTH

OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) INDICATES THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE DECREASED IN SIZE AND BECAME PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A WELL DEFINED CENTER IN THE 142357Z SSMIS 37GHZ PASS. THE INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO 80 KNOTS AS DEEP CORE CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED, WITH AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES NOW RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS AND AUTOMATED ESTIMATES BETWEEN 66 TO 82 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS MODERATELY HIGH AT APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS, WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC IN RESPONSE TO THE VWS. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE OVERALL MOISTURE ENVELOPE IS STILL WELL DEFINED, AND THE WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS ROBUST...

VAYU IS SLOWLY TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD WITHIN THE POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT OF A COL BETWEEN TWO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHARPLY AS THE 200 MB NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ENHANCES, RESULTING IN A DE-COUPLING OF THE VORTEX FROM THE MEAN STEERING FLOW. AFTER TAU 24, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TRACKING WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS VWS AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE. TC 02A WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF INDIA. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE NWP GUIDANCE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN WHEN VAYU BEGINS ITS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST, AS WELL AS SHARP DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AFTER THE TURN. AS A RESULT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH WAS PLACED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK AND THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 28 FEET.\\\

 

Comments and Observations

Thus, the South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) will Advance despite a week’s lateness as compared to its Normal Movement. As at 14 June, SWAMS is at the Kerala-Assam Belt. It is noteworthy to say that the Masses of Rain Clouds prevailing in the Atmosphere of the Indian Sub-continent are likely to decrease. This is because of the Impacts of VAYU Very Severe Cyclonic Storm which has carried away part of the Moisture into the open Arabian Sea.

Refer to the Article on the Monsoon in which this mention has been made:

In the event of further intensification, the Normal Monsoon will definitely be disturbed, as most of the masses of Rain Clouds will make a shift at Sea.”

Therefore, it is Highly Likely that Rains associated with the Normal Monsoon will decrease. Heat Waves and Drought will be harshly felt in whole India. Besides, water supply in Delhi is being currently distributed unevenly, according to Indian Media, on 14 June. 

 

Updated: 4.51 pm SATURDAY 15 JUNE 2019.  

Revised and Updated from MAURITIUS.

 

IMD published its update at 11.30 am on Sunday 16 June 2019 as follows:

{{{HOURLY UPDATE ON SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘VAYU’ OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA

BULLETIN NO. 28

DATE: 16-06-2019 TIME OF ISSUE: 1130 hrs IST

DATE/TIME (IST) OF OBSERVATION 16-06-2019 (1030 HRS IST)

LOCATION LATITUDE/LONGITUDE

 

 

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘VAYU’ LAY CENTERED AT 1030 HRS IST OF 16TH JUNE, 2019 NEAR LAT. 20.80N AND LONG. 65.10E OVER NORTHEAST & ADJOINING NORTHWEST & CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 480 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR (GUJARAT), 445 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DWARKA (GUJARAT) AND 555 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BHUJ (GUJARAT).

REALISED RAINFALL AND FORECAST RAINFALL DURING NEXT 3 HOURS

RAINFALL REPORTED DURING PAST 01 HOUR (IN MM.): NIL

LIGHT RAINFALL LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. REALISED AND FORECAST MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED (KMPH)

SQUALLY WIND CONTINUES IN COASTAL AREAS.

DWARKA REPORTED 15 KMPH WINDS AT 1030 HOURS IST OF 16TH JUNE (SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY).

PORBANDAR REPORTED 28 KMPH WINDS AT 1030 HOURS IST OF 16TH JUNE (EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY).

KANDLA REPORTED 22 KMPH WINDS AT 1030 HOURS IST OF 16TH JUNE (SOUTHERLY).

NALIYA REPORTED 22 KMPH WINDS AT 1030 HOURS IST OF 16TH JUNE (SOUTHERLY).

 

FORECAST MOVEMENT THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WESTNORTHWESTWARDS FOR ABOUT 06 HOURS AND GRADUALLY RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS THEREAFTER & CROSS NORTH GUJARAT COAST BY MID-NIGHT OF 17TH JUNE, 2019 AS A DEPRESSION.}}}

 

 Keep Watch for UPDATES. 

Updated from MAURITIUS.

 PKANHYE              11.48 am SUNDAY 16 JUNE 2019.

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