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 On 15 December the US Navy made a forecast track of this Disturbance with a trajectory South of Diego Garcia (see picture).

 By that time, i.e. 15 December the System developed into a Tropical Depression. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) US drew a forecast track showing West South West trajectory, passing above Rodrigues and reaching North East of Mauritius on 21 December.

 

Meteo-France made the forecast track to pass quite far from the East of Rodrigues and to move towards the South East and finally to make a U-turn towards the North East after 23 December until 25 December. This may be because of the impact of Intense Cyclone BRUCE in the East. However, the forecast was not perfect.

 

It is regrettable to note that the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) did not pay attention to the formation of Intense Cyclone AMARA, as from the 12 December. The Atmospheric Pressure stayed at 1008 Hectopascals during 4 days and yet the MMS hesitated to name it. As AMARA showed signs of a rapid process of intensification, then finally the MMS named the Cyclone at 5.30.pm on 16 December.

 Moreover, the Cyclone Forecast Track of MMS of 17 December was a very miserable one. The Forecasters made the track to pass well above Rodrigues in the North on 21 December without making a landfall.

On the other side, a representative of MMS stated on the MBC TV on Thursday 19 December that ‘he will not comment on the other oncoming Intense Cyclone BRUCE because it is not in our region’. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has sent the 14th and last Weather Bulletin at 10.00 pm (local time) on 18 December stating that BRUCE, of Category 2 (77-143 kph) has left the Jurisdiction Zone of Australia. Their forecast track shows that BRUCE, which was cruising at 21 kph, was in the South West direction. This means that Intense Cyclone BRUCE was moving towards Rodrigues (see picture).

 

Such inaccurate information by the Mauritius Meteorological Services is very unprofessional in Disaster Management. As mentioned above that the Spirit of Early Warning System should always prevail in forecasting Calamities. I use to quote what Dr Jan Egeland, UN Under Secretary of Humanitarian Affairs said at the TSUNAMI Conference in 2005 at Grand Baie, in which I participated:

Disaster Management is not simply a matter of sophisticated technology and hardware: at root it is also a matter of communication and education... We need better ways of communicating accurate information to the public in need of such information”. It should therefore be remembered that there are lots of commercial ships and fishing vessels that cruise in the Indian Ocean, especially those of Mauritius. So, such crucial information is very important for one and all.

One interesting feature regarding AMARA and BRUCE: it is a little rare to find 2 Cyclonic Systems evolving concurrently and side by side in one zone. In such a situation someone may be tempted to think that the two cyclones may fuse together. But this is practically impossible, because cyclones of the southern hemisphere rotate in a clock-wise direction. At the meeting point one is clock-wise and the other is anti-clock-wise. So, they cannot amalgamate together. Note that AMARA and BRUCE were both intense in nature. However, an anti-cyclone can fuse or dissolve a cyclone. In fact, since the atmospheric current from the South Pole moves anti-clock-wise and is the Strongest Wind Current of the Globe, that is why it dissolved or weakened AMARA and BRUCE

To conclude you have no doubt noticed:

(I) that all the forecasters mentioned above mistook the landfall of Intense Cyclone AMARA on Rodrigues on Saturday 21 December 2013 and

(2) that my forecast was very accurate and the best. I mentioned on 18 December 2013, that AMARA will pass near the North East of Rodrigues (Pointe Cotton) causing havoc in the Island as predicted (with 60% of food crops destroyed, 6 fishing vessels lost/damaged; electricity and telephone networks damaged, fragile houses damaged, high waves at sea, soil erosion, etc). The Forecast Track was towards the South East and it was the perfect one. Refer to the Satellite Imagery on top.

So, keep watch for next interesting updates as other Cyclones and Rainfalls are knocking at the door step.

P.KANHYE.                                         28 DECEMBER 2013.  

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Comments   

0 #1 Honda 2014-12-02 04:00
Your writing style has been surprised me. Thank you, quite nice .
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