Wednesday, 23 May 2018

  Kilauea Hawaii

  Courtesy: USGS

 

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL DAY 23 MARCH 2018 

‘Weather-Ready, Climate-Smart’

Watch Video-Thunderbolts Without Rain and

Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017.

Watch Video-Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritiu,

Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

Watch ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)

South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

Watch MMS LIVE 

 

 

 Watch CARLOS Tropical Cyclne (04-07) February 2017-

South-West Indian Ocean, another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 Watch DINEO- Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

 

  

Watch Video-FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS Formations- January 2017.

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

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''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' .

Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

  Watch LIVE from UN 71st Session 

Speech of Sir Anerod JugnauthPrime Minister of Mauritius.

 

 

  Watch VIDEO: SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atlantic Ocean

to South-East Indian Ocean-01 September 2016.. 

 

 

 

 Watch VIDEO: THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius

and Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 Watch VIDEO on BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016 Mission in Mauritius.

 Watch part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 Watch animation of CYCLONE FANTALA Live with NOAA.

 

 

 

 

Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN 10-13 February 2016:

South-West Indian Ocean

 

 

 

 

 

Watch WMO Video 23 MarchWorld Meteorological Day 2016

 

 

 

 

 

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

 

 

 

Watch Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

 

 

 

 

Watch Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

 

 

 

 

 

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INTENSE CYCLONES AMARA, BRUCE AND OTHERS

Weather Forecasts for Cyclones AMARA, BRUCE and other oncoming Cyclonic Systems.

It is highly likely that AMARA will move from present speed of 5 kph to an increased speed by Friday on the track mentioned. The centre will pass near (Pointe Cotton) the North East of Rodrigues by Sunday 22 December. Cyclone Warning 1, 2,3 to 4 may be passed by that time. HEAVY RAINFALL or FLOOD is highly likely to occur. Rodrigues being mostly hilly with steep valleys, the direct impacts will eventually be as follows: fragile houses may be damaged; food crops and live stocks may be damaged or lost; mudslides, landslides and soil erosion are highly likely to occur; artificial dams and aquifers may be replenished and high waves at the sea (CLICK PICTURE to enlarge).

The remnants of AMARA will shower on Mauritius by Sunday.

CLICK HERE to see NASA SATELLITE Video

READ MORE FOR UPDATE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BRUCE has already left Cocos Island since 10.00 pm right now. It is a Category 2 Cyclone (77-143 kph) and is moving rapidly at 21 kph in the South West direction. It is highly likely to reach Rodrigues in 10 days. If BRUCE maintains its trajectory and intensification, it will be one of the most disastrous cyclones that I have predicted to visit us as from 2013. Read more:CLICK HERE.  

Other Tropical Depressions, including the region of Mozambique Channel, are highly likely to form as from next week which will affect Rodrigues, Mauritius and Reunion with lots of rain (click picture to enlarge and press ESC to close).

Please note:

  1. Year 2013 started with Cyclone DUMILE (01-05 January); Torrential Rain of 13 February; Flash Flood of 30 March killing 11 Mauritians; bus crash of Soreze killing 10 and bundles of social evils;
  2. Year 2013 is ending with Heavy Rain falls in November, Cyclones AMARA and BRUCE, bus accident at Pailles yesterday with nearly a dozen injured and bundles of social evils;
  3. Philippines has been devastated by a series of 5 Typhoons and
  4. The South West Indian Ocean is under the threat of cyclones in series.

Read more: CLICK HERE. WAIT FOR SOME TIME FOR IMAGE ANIMATION.

INTENSE CYCLONES AMARA AND BRUCE

IMPACT ASSESSMENTS

It is the solemn duty of all Policy Makers, of the Disaster Management Centre, of the Meteorological Services, of the CWA, of the Agriculture, Environment, Fisheries and Health Ministries, of all other Stakeholders, of institutions both public and private, etc. to make an assessment of a Disaster Event. This evaluation report is essential in the effort of building a Disaster Resilient Society with the concepts of 'Country-Driven' and of 'Putting-People-First'. The question that we ask is: have such assessments been done after the Heavy Rainfall during 25 November-03 December 2013 and also after the Intense Cyclone AMARA?

The first step in this direction is to identify the forecasted disaster, then a preliminary risk assessment, then the response assessment, followed by a post disaster assessment including all social, economic and health impacts. These constitute the ingredients in the implementation of the Early Warning Systems in the endeavour of building Resilience. All these assessments give lots of indication on the strengths and weaknesses of Disaster Management mechanisms. Eventually, a nation feels the protected and secured by the Policy Makers who have the Political Goodwill to embark on such policies.   

An Earthquake is a natural event that takes place abruptly, anytime and anywhere at a short notice. In the case of a Tsunami, there are at least 15 minutes to launch the alert if it occurs in the neighborhood.

 In the case of a cyclone, ample time is available for responsible institutions to act and to react. Usually, a cyclonic system undergoes a natural process from formation to organization, to intensification and to landfall. Its lifespan is about 15 days. It starts form a Tropical Disturbance, then to a Depression with a certain trajectory which can be identified by a responsible and a wise weather forecaster. If the air, the moisture, the clouds and the wind current systems appear to be organized, these give birth to a Low Depression. The Atmospheric Pressure around the middle of the cyclonic system may be more or less 1010 Hectopascals. As the Pressure decreases this gives the signal of intensification. When the pressure is around 1008 Hectopascals it means that the cyclonic system is growing and is intensifying. If at this conjecture, there are other atmospheric data and information it is conclusive that a disaster is approaching with a clear cut trajectory. A wise weather forecaster is thus capable to locate, to name and to monitor the oncoming cyclone. 

I mentioned at the beginning of my article above, that AMARA-the First Tropical Cyclone for season 2013-2014 will be born between 09-14 December. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) US identified a Tropical Disturbance 93 S in the South East of Diego Garcia, as mentioned above.

 


 

 On 15 December the US Navy made a forecast track of this Disturbance with a trajectory South of Diego Garcia (see picture).

 By that time, i.e. 15 December the System developed into a Tropical Depression. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) US drew a forecast track showing West South West trajectory, passing above Rodrigues and reaching North East of Mauritius on 21 December.

 

Meteo-France made the forecast track to pass quite far from the East of Rodrigues and to move towards the South East and finally to make a U-turn towards the North East after 23 December until 25 December. This may be because of the impact of Intense Cyclone BRUCE in the East. However, the forecast was not perfect.

 

It is regrettable to note that the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) did not pay attention to the formation of Intense Cyclone AMARA, as from the 12 December. The Atmospheric Pressure stayed at 1008 Hectopascals during 4 days and yet the MMS hesitated to name it. As AMARA showed signs of a rapid process of intensification, then finally the MMS named the Cyclone at 5.30.pm on 16 December.

 Moreover, the Cyclone Forecast Track of MMS of 17 December was a very miserable one. The Forecasters made the track to pass well above Rodrigues in the North on 21 December without making a landfall.

On the other side, a representative of MMS stated on the MBC TV on Thursday 19 December that ‘he will not comment on the other oncoming Intense Cyclone BRUCE because it is not in our region’. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has sent the 14th and last Weather Bulletin at 10.00 pm (local time) on 18 December stating that BRUCE, of Category 2 (77-143 kph) has left the Jurisdiction Zone of Australia. Their forecast track shows that BRUCE, which was cruising at 21 kph, was in the South West direction. This means that Intense Cyclone BRUCE was moving towards Rodrigues (see picture).

 

Such inaccurate information by the Mauritius Meteorological Services is very unprofessional in Disaster Management. As mentioned above that the Spirit of Early Warning System should always prevail in forecasting Calamities. I use to quote what Dr Jan Egeland, UN Under Secretary of Humanitarian Affairs said at the TSUNAMI Conference in 2005 at Grand Baie, in which I participated:

Disaster Management is not simply a matter of sophisticated technology and hardware: at root it is also a matter of communication and education... We need better ways of communicating accurate information to the public in need of such information”. It should therefore be remembered that there are lots of commercial ships and fishing vessels that cruise in the Indian Ocean, especially those of Mauritius. So, such crucial information is very important for one and all.

One interesting feature regarding AMARA and BRUCE: it is a little rare to find 2 Cyclonic Systems evolving concurrently and side by side in one zone. In such a situation someone may be tempted to think that the two cyclones may fuse together. But this is practically impossible, because cyclones of the southern hemisphere rotate in a clock-wise direction. At the meeting point one is clock-wise and the other is anti-clock-wise. So, they cannot amalgamate together. Note that AMARA and BRUCE were both intense in nature. However, an anti-cyclone can fuse or dissolve a cyclone. In fact, since the atmospheric current from the South Pole moves anti-clock-wise and is the Strongest Wind Current of the Globe, that is why it dissolved or weakened AMARA and BRUCE

To conclude you have no doubt noticed:

(I) that all the forecasters mentioned above mistook the landfall of Intense Cyclone AMARA on Rodrigues on Saturday 21 December 2013 and

(2) that my forecast was very accurate and the best. I mentioned on 18 December 2013, that AMARA will pass near the North East of Rodrigues (Pointe Cotton) causing havoc in the Island as predicted (with 60% of food crops destroyed, 6 fishing vessels lost/damaged; electricity and telephone networks damaged, fragile houses damaged, high waves at sea, soil erosion, etc). The Forecast Track was towards the South East and it was the perfect one. Refer to the Satellite Imagery on top.

So, keep watch for next interesting updates as other Cyclones and Rainfalls are knocking at the door step.

P.KANHYE.                                         28 DECEMBER 2013.  

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Comments   

0 #1 Honda 2014-12-02 04:00
Your writing style has been surprised me. Thank you, quite nice .
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