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 BREAKING NEWS

BEJISA TROPICAL CYCLONE-TORNADO TYPE AS PREDICTED. Read more: all pages below. 

The Cyclonic Season of 2013-2014 appears to be very active in the South-Western Zone of the Indian Ocean. After the episodes of Intense Cyclones AMARA and BRUCE 16-21 January 2013, a 3rd Cyclone (BEJISA)is in formation in the North East of Madagascar and North West of Agalega. This system is also along the Western extremity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) of the Tropic of Capricorn.

(Click image to enlarge and press ESC on keyboard to close)

I mentioned on 07 December 2013, regarding the formation of Cyclone AMARA, that it will take birth around Madagascar and Mozambique Channel. AMARA rather formed around the middle of the ITCZ and was named on 16 December. I also stated that it will evolve like Cyclone DUMILE (01-05 January 2013). Cyclone FELLENG (28 January-02 February 2013) also evolved from the same region. 

I mentioned on 18 December 2013, that 'Other Tropical Depressions including in the region of Mozambique Channel, are highly likely to form as from next week (i.e. now) which will affect Rodrigues, Mauritius and Reunion with lots of rain'. Also that 'The South West Indian Ocean is under the threat of cyclones in series'. This is exactly true. Click here to read more: FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE AMARA 2013-2014.

It is interesting to note that Cyclone BEJISA, which is in formation in the location of DUMILE. Usually the cyclones which originate from this area, take a longer time to evolve and to intensify. The reasons are that:

  • this extremity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is also under the stress of the Atmospheric system of  Mozambique Channel which is rather a zone of warm air coming mainly from East/South of Africa. So, there are lots of convection currents,
  • the South East Trade Wind continues to blow towards this area and
  • the cold air stream of the South Pole oscillation, which is strongest, brings more convection to influence the formation, intensification or dissolution of the cyclonic system. CLICK HERE to see live.

The Weather Forecast is as follows:

  1. You should have well noticed that there are some moderate rainfall mainly in the South and the Central Plateau since a few days: Grand Bassin-72.2 mm; Mon Bois-57.8 mm; Rose Belle-48.6 mm; Queen Victoria-29.4 mm; Providence-26.8 mm; Belle Mare-37.4; Plaisance-39.5 mm and Port Louis-0.8 mm only. These indicate that the Rain Clouds which are moving from the South West of Mauritius are generating this. (Click picture).
  2. Rainfall will accelerate as from Sunday evening as from the clouds that will move from the West or North West of Mauritius. It is highly likely that these clouds will move at low altitude similar to those of the Torrential Rain of 13 February and of 30 March 2013. Refer to article SATELLITE SERVICES. This will be propelled by the movement of the BEJISA whose trajectory will be towards Reunion, Mauritius and Rodrigues (see satellite imagery above). Eventually, floods are likely to occur in the Central Plateau, Moka and Reduit by 31 December. So, it is strongly advisable to be very cautious especially during these days of parties.
  3. It is highly likely that the Low Pressure will evolve into a Cyclone soon and to influence the region of Reunion, Mauritius and finally Rodrigues, that is, from 01 to 05 January 2014. It appears that the Cyclone will be of a Moderate Intensity giving rather showers for a longer period.
  4. Thunderstorms, humidity, heat, rains, strong wind and high waves at sea are the main ingredients of this system.   

OBSERVATIONS: I have noticed, after the passage of AMARA and BRUCE, that the atmosphere of our region appears rather bizarre and has changed in texture, cloud variations, wind direction, persistent heat and humidity; but, a little enhanced after the Flood episodes of 13 February and 30 March 2013.

These give me some indication that the cyclones which develop in this part of the Indian Ocean will change into TORNADOES. This is what I mentioned in my great document at page 24 and dated 28 May 2011, which I submitted to the Policy Makers of Mauritius. It should be noted that the Southern Africa is used to such atmospheric system. So, is BEJISA of this type?

                    Therefore keep watch for other updates.

P.KANHYE.                                                                                28 DECEMBER 2013.

 

BREAKING NEWS: BEJISA-TORNADO TYPE AS PREDICTED.

 UPDATE : 02 JANUARY 2014.

BEJISA Cyclone has made Landfall 50 km South West of Reunion Island around 4pm on 02 January 2014. The impacts are considerable: 1 Dead and 14 people injured (2 serious); around 100 cyclone refugees; more than 121,000 families without electricity; half of population without water; wind reaching 210 kph on the mountainous regions; rainfall 80-173 mm (613 mm within 24 hours); roads and bridges flooded, lots of trees fallen or uprooted blocking roads, landslides, electricity and telephone networks damaged and all air traffic closed. These are just a preliminary assessment made by the Town Councillors. Fortunately, Mauritius got a lucky escape.

Madagascar, having the Area of Responsibility, finally (and late), named Tropical Cyclone BEJISA at 7 pm on Sunday 29 December 2013. As Predicted above, about rainfall, Reunion Island experienced 169 mm of rain within 3 hours and total electricity black out caused by thunderbolts.

BEJISA evolved rapidly from Moderate Tropical Storm to Severe Tropical Cyclone within Monday and Tuesday. The Barometric Pressure decreased to 1000 hectopascals moving from 5 kph to 17 kph (970-964 hectopascals and moving at 19 kph according to Meteo-France Reunion). Its trajectory moved to the South or South East. The maximum rainfall was recorded to 14.6 mm in Mon Bois and 10 mm in Grand Bassin and lesser in other regions of Mauritius.

BEJISA intensified on New Year Wednesday 01 January 2014 and was located at 560 km North West of Mauritius. Cyclone Warning class I was issued at 10 am by the Meteorological Services and Warning II was passed at 4.30 pm. The Weather became cloudy and rainy gradually. On Thursday morning BEJISA was positioned at Latitude 19.6 South and Longitude 53.9 East, that is at 385 km West North West and moved 14 kph (20 kph as per Meteo-France) threatening both Mauritius and Reunion.

Reunion issued Cyclone Warning (alerte rouge) as from 10 am. Finally, BEJISA made Landfall around 4 pm in Reunion with lots of impacts as mentioned above.     

 Observations

 The first Cyclone Track traced by the Meteorological Services of Mauritius forecast BEJISA to 

MMS BEJISA Forecast Track-30 DECEMBER 2013 move West of Mauritius by 03 January 2014. With the change of its trajectory the track got changed gradually (click picture). 

MMS BEJISA Forecast Track -31 DECEMBER 2013

 Moreover, it is difficult to follow the data and information on the site of the MMS of Vacoas, as they are sometimes inaccurate and obsolete.

 

 

 

Meteo-France initially forecasted to move directly on Mauritius by 03 January. This was altered gradually (see pictures). However, BEJISA will move towards the South East after leaving Reunion Island, contrary to the post landfall forecast by Meteo-France, by that of JTWC and of that of MMS . Click here to see live.

Meteo France BEJISA Track-30 DECEMBER 2013

 Meteo France BEJISA Forecast Track-4 pm 30 DECEMBER 2013 JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTRE- BEJISA Forecast Track

 The best forecast track was made by Joint Typhoon Warning Centre-US. The centre of BEJISA passed towards the West of Reunion (two hours earlier).

I have mentioned above that BEJISA will shower lots of rain. In fact, Reunion was flooded better than Mauritius. I also mentioned that it will be moderate. The cyclone blew moderately in Mauritius-90 km of gusts. Rainfall was as follows:

64.6 mm in Port Louis; 74.6 mm in Pailles; 76.2 mm in Albion; 63.4 mm in Moka; 84.8 mm Quatre Bornes; 93.2 mm in Vacoas; 94.2 in Mon Bois; 93 mm in Grand Bassin; 80.2 in Rose Belle; 71.7 mm in Plaisance; 69.4 mm in Riche en Eau; 87 mm in Providence; 85 mm in Nouvelle Decouverte; 106.2 mm in Queen Victoria; 53.6 mm in Belle Mare; 66.4 mm in Mon Loisir and 41.4 mm in Bain Boeuf.

CLOUDS AT HIGH ALTITUDE Before formation of BEJISA

  In the last paragraph I stated that the ‘atmosphere of our region appears bizarre’. See picture of the sky a few days before the formation of BEJISA.

 

Refer to the picture of the NOAA Climate Prediction Centre- Week 1-valid: December 25, 2013-December 31, 2013. There is indication for the formation of cyclones in Australia. In fact, Cyclone CHRISTINE formed, developed and made landfall in the West and South.

 However, NOAA predicted that there will be ‘below average rainfall''NOAA Climate Prediction Centre-26 December 2013 as from South East of Africa, Madagascar and whole of the Mascarenes, without any probability of cyclone formation. As I was on the watch, Predicting cyclones in series in this particular region, I concluded the formation of Cyclone BEJISA just after the passing of Intense Cyclones AMARA and BRUCE. This was a real challenge, click picture to enlarge.

I made a forecast of 40% probability of BEJISA moving near East of Reunion and 60% for Mauritius. This was based, amongst other data and information, on the impact of the Atmospheric Oscillation of the South Pole. In fact, it is this system that carried away and dissolved AMARA and BRUCE. But, unfortunately the South Pole system was suppressed instead of being enhanced as previously.

Moreover, I Predicted Tornado type of BEJISA. I spent the whole day of 02 January listening to Radio Premiere of Reunion. There were many people from Reunion who witnessed pockets of small Tornadoes within the cyclonic system of BEJISA. The regions of Poudre D’Or, Grand Gaube and Riviere du Rempart in Mauritius have also been affected seriously by unprecedented damage by small Tornadoes. BEJISA had lots of pockets of TORNADOES, just like in the US. According to me this is one of the reasons why BEJISA accelerated its movements. These are the Truth that I am trying to educate with my machinery of ‘CHEVAL DE BATAILLE’. 

 The question that we should ask: are the stakeholders of Disaster Management- Meteo Vacoas and the GHOST-LIKE Disaster Risk Reduction Centre, headed by a Foreign Expert and all driven by PIG HEADED Policy Makers, capable of sensitizing Awareness, Preparedness and Mitigation of Calamities in this Paradise Island? The answer is NO, NO, NO...

 P.KANHYE.                                              11.00 pm THURSDAY 02 JANUARY 2014.  

 Read more:INTENSE CYCLONES AMARA, BRUCE AND OTHERS

                  FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE 'AMARA' 2013-2014   

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