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THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.


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HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
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 Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin





 Flood Storm 31 December 2015

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HELLEN (9th) Intense Tropical Cyclone (Rebirth)-27 MARCH 2014



HELLEN took birth as a Tropical Depression called SYSTEM 95 S in the area of Southern Tanzania and Northern Mozambique and North-West of Madagascar since 23 March 2014. After intensification in the Mozambique Channel, it was named by Météo Madagascar on 28th and was moving Southwards at 7 kph. It developed rapidly from Moderate state with 996 hectopascals to an Intense Cyclone on 30 March moving South-South-East at 12 kph. While it cruised on this trajectory it passed towards the North West of Madagascar and South of Mayotte, where it made landfall.

According to Météo France HELLEN intensified rapidly within 24 hours with an Atmospheric Pressure decreasing from 986 to 925 hectopascals. It showered Heavy Rainfalls of 279 mm in 48 hours (equivalent to one month of Rainfall) in the South of Mayotte Island and also generated 4-8 metres of waves at sea causing lots of damages. The Gusts were estimated to be more than 300 kph. That is why HELLEN is considered by Météo France as one of the Most Intense Cyclones in the zone of the Mozambique Channel.  They even  forecast HELLEN to phase out quickly and treaed it as EX-HELLEN (see below). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JWTC) estimated maximum sustained wind at the centre of HELLEN to reach 259.3 kph. 

According to NASA Aqua Satellite the towering thunderstorms reached -52 degrees centigrade and considers HELLEN as a 'very heavy rainmaker'.

The North West of Madagascar is the wettest area, given its position in the convection zone-ITCZ/MJO. The South is the driest. The latest information available is that there are 3 persons dead, 8 missing and thousands of homeless. It is conclusive that the impact of Intense Cyclone HELLEN was disastrous.

Click pictures to enlarge.

Click here to verify and watch animation of HELLEN track.

Click here to check out and also watch 2 NASA 3D animated images of HELLEN.

After making landfall, HELLEN showed some signs of weakening on 31 March moving South South East at 9.2 kph. The maximum sustained wind reduced to 157.4 kph. But it did not last long. After being stripped of the some of the enveloping clouds, HELLEN  started the SAMBA RHYTHM on 'April Fool' day. The REMNANTS tried to survive in the Channel with a Low Pressure of 1004 and 46.3 kph as maximum sustained wind. The system appeared elongated and disorganised (Refer to picture below).

HELLEN Elongated with 16 km High Thunderstorms-03 APRIL 2014.

On 02 April 2014 NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Satellite found that a 'strong convective thunderstorm' had developed with 75 mm Rainfall/hour and reaching 16 km high. HELLEN is another Phenomenon of the Summer Season 2013-2014. It is expected to phase out within a few days.

Observations and comments:

  1. You should have by now understood that the zone of Mozambique Channel is an area of dynamic convections. On one hand, the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) carries all humidity, heat, thunderstorms, lightning and also drought from the East of Mother Earth and dumps all in the large continent of Africa. On the other hand, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) brings the same ingredients from Sub Saharan Africa and dumps everything towards the North, Centre and South of Southern Indian Ocean, as explained in previous articles. So, cyclones and floods are inevitable.
  2. The Cyclone Prediction Center of NOAA rightly predicted the formation of cyclone in this zone. See picture below.  
  3. As usual the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has no Forecast Track.
  4. Refer to the EUMETSAT/DWD Satellite picture on top. The Forecast Track is visible.                    










Cyclone IVANOE (10th) is already in formation along the ITCZ in the East. It is highly likely that it will affect Rodrigues between 08 to 13 April first, then Mauritius. HEAVY RAINFALLS are also Predicted for 05-08 April for Rodrigues and Mauritius. See picture.                                         

The cool temperature felt at night since a few weeks indicates that winter is approaching. In fact (1) Mother Earth is tilting towards the South, entering the Winter Solstice. That is why days appear shorter and night longer and (2) the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is very active since a few months. So, it is blowing cold air from the South Pole. But, the Cyclonic Season ends in April. The Winter Season is forecast to be rather warm, contrary to last year. 

Click here to see live.


Supplementary information:

The Comoros Archipelago, comprises of 4 islands: Grande Comore (largest), Anjouan, Moheli and Mayotte. They were all under French Colonisation from 1958. They became independent in 1975, except Mayotte. The four volcanic islands are found in the northern zone of the Mozambique Channel and north west of Madagascar. Kartala, situated in Grande Comore, is one of the largest volcanic craters of the world. One of the geological features of this group of islands is that there are few beaches but almost no lagoons like Madagascar and the Mascarene Islands. They are marine peaks emerging above the Ocean. This means that the islands are exposed to the onslaughts of ocean waves since their creation. So, the waves generated by cyclones are very strong and dangerous, as they lash and invade the coastline up to 50 metres inland. (I watched this scene at Itsandra beach, Grande Comore, during a cyclonic day while participating in the UNDP/UNIDO Industrial Consultancy Programme during 1984-85). Keep this as educational until articles on Earthquakes and Tsunamis will be uploaded soon. 

P.KANHYE.                                                            03 APRIL 2014.







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