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IVANOE MODERATE TROPICAL CYCLONE-

10TH FOR SEASON 2013-2014.

(SEE UPDATE BELOW)

IVANOE TROPICAL CYCLONE-04 APRIL 2014 The Cyclonic Season 2013-2014 for the South Indian Ocean continues to be Very Dynamic. CYCLONE IVANOE was already in formation since Wednesday 02 April 2014 around the South East of Diego Garcia, as mentioned in previous article on HELLEN (9th) INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) US, named it as Tropical Disturbance 96 S INVEST on 04 April. It intensified quickly and was named as Moderate Tropical Storm IVANOE by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) today 05 April. 

Cyclone IVANOE was already in formation since I identified it on 

IVANOE CYLONE in formation-02 April 2014 Wednesday 02 April 2014, as mentioned in article: HELLEN (9th) INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center located it (South West of Cocos Island) on 05 April at Latitude 20.40 South and Longitude 82.2 East, moving South South-East at more than 22 kph. 

The Tropical Disturbance had a large mass of clouds which were under the threat of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The southern andNOAA 96 S INVEST -04 APRIL 2014 eastern parts of the cyclonic system were stripped off, but the trajectory kept the same. The western zone of the band of clouds showed some resilience and became more organised. As a result, it intensified and the Mauritius Meteorological Services named it as Moderate Tropical Storm IVANOE on Saturday 05 April.

Nevertheless, IVANOE continues to move on the same trajectory SSE, as the ACC is very powerful. In other words, IVANOE is bound to become aIVANOE named by MMS-05 APRIL 2014 Sub-Tropical and eventually an Extra-Tropical Cyclone. At this conjecture, the cyclone will cruise towards the South West of Australia in a few days time. This may cause a disturbance for the explorers of the Malaysian Airliner MH 370 which is lost since 10 March this year.            Click here to verify live. 

Observations:

It should be noted that almost all the cyclones originate from both the Upper and Lower Hemisphere of the EQUATOR. Most of these take birth in the East of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and around 40% from the West-along the Mozambique Channel or around Madagascar. All of the cyclones, except a few, adopt a trajectory towards the South Pole, whether they make landfall or not. This is the Law of Nature.

Moreover, the ACC, being the strongest atmospheric system of the Blue Planet, neutralises all cyclones and weather systems and drags them towards the cold waters of the South Pole. The ACC acts as a safeguard if it coincides with the cyclonic/weather system outside the land mass.

Examples: ALENGA (5-15 December 2011), CLAUDIA (7-11 December 2012), BRUCE (20-25 December 2013), FOBANE (07-12 February 2014) and IVANOE.

But, it also causes disasters if it coincides with the cyclones/weather systems around the islands or Southern Africa. Examples: AMARA (16-21 December 2013), BEJISA (28 December 2013-03 January 2014), EDILSON (5-6 February 2014), TORRENTIAL RAINFALL in Rodrigues on 14 March 2014 and the HEAVY RAINFALL in Mauritius on 21 March 2014.

The rainfalls recorded by the MMS on 04 April are 3.6 mm in Port Louis and 22.4 mm (maximum) in Providence. Grand Bassin has been showered by 9.8 mm on 05 April. However, keep watch as other Rain Clouds are approaching.

 As usual, the MMS does not appear to have constructed a Forecast Track of IVANOE despite it named the Cyclone on 05 April 2014. Refer to those of JTWC and to Météo France-Reunion below.                                                                                        

Meteo France Reunion IVANOE Forecast Track-04 APRIL 2014

JTWC IVANOE Forecast Track-05 April 2014

 

 

 

KEEP WATCH FOR OTHER ARTICLES.

P.KANHYE.                                              06 APRIL 2014.

 


 

UPDATED 11.00 pm 11 APRIL 2014

IVANOE CYCLONE AND RAINFALLS.

 

Cyclone IVANOE evolved very quickly; from its formation on 02 April 2014, as a Tropical Disturbance on 04 April, named as Moderate Tropical Storm on 05 April and its dissolution as an Extra-Tropical Cyclone by 06 April. It moved in a South-South-East trajectory with an accelerated speed of 45 kph.

 

The reasons for the short life of IVANOE are as follows:       

 

  1. It is clear that IVANOE has been under the direct influence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) which is prevailing strongly as from January 2014;
  2. The Blue Planet is tilting (bending) towards the South. It means that the Northern Hemisphere is leaving the Winter Season and entering the Summer Season and eventually the Southern Hemisphere is leaving the Summer Season (October to April) and entering (transiting) the Winter Solstice;
  3. Conclusively, cold air combined with a vigorous wind current is causing the dissolution of warm air and any cyclone prevailing on its way.

 

Observations of the complex weather systems:

 

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is blowing, as usual, cold air in an Anti-Clock Wise movement. As it is capable of reaching almost whole of the Tropic of Capricorn, the temperature has decreased and the wind is blowing with gusts of over 50-80 kph and also generating waves of 3-7 mt high.

 

Moreover, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is operating in an enhanced phase. As a result, the two systems have intersected or fused around the Mascarene Islands and causing lots of convections with the clouds. The clouds have been moving from the South West and North West directions during Monday 07-Thursday 10 April (see pictures). 

 

Rainfalls have occurred in the Southern Indian Ocean during and after the life span of IVANOE Tropical Cyclone. Most of the Clouds appear to have passed over the Mascarenes. But, the Heavier Rain Clouds seem to travel between Mauritius and Reunion Islands on 07 April (see picture). The maximum rainfall of 7.8 mm has been recorded by MMS at Grand Bassin on 10 April and 30.4 mm today. Temperature in the Central Plateau is forecast to be 16-18 degrees Celsius tonight, gusts to reach about 65 kph and Waves at seas estimated at about 3 mts.

 

Reunion Island has been showered with 51mm on 11 April. In addition, the South, South-West and South East of Reunion were under High Waves Warning: 3-8 mts and temperature has fallen to 6-7 degrees yesterday. Gusts reach about 70-80 kph. Click here to verify live.

 

 Forecasts:

The Winter Season appears to have entered quickly, because of the enhanced phase of the ACC. At first, cold winds will blow abruptly during one or two weeks and will prevail normally. The scientific world has Predicted that the El NINO Oscillation, which was in a neutral phase during the last few years, will revive to a hotter Summer for the Northern Hemisphere within two months’ time. If extreme weather will prevail there, so there will be an impact in the Southern Hemisphere -Indian Ocean. I Predict that this Winter Season may be rather warm, except for a few days of harsh colds. It is worthwhile to note that cyclonic systems do also occur in winter like Cyclone KUENA-a Winter Phenomenon of 08 June 2012 in the North East of Madagascar.

 

Refer to the extracts of Extreme Weather Records in the Southern Indian Ocean according to WMO Weather and Climate Extremes Map.

 

WORLD WEATHER EXTREMES

 

World Weather Element

World Element Characteristic

Value

Date (D/M/Y)

Site Observations

Geopolitical Location

Longitude/ Latitude

Elevation

 

Greatest 1-Min Rainfall

31.2mm (1.23")

4/7/1956

1948- present

Unionville, MD, USA

38°48'N, 76°08'W

152m

(499ft)

Greatest 60-Min Rainfall

305mm (12.0")

22/6/1947

 

Holt, MO, USA

39°27'N, 94°20'W

263m (863ft)

Greatest 12-Hr Rainfall

1.144 m (45.0'')

7-8/1/1966

1966-1990

Foc-Foc, La Réunion

21°14'S, 55°41'E

2290m (7513ft)

Greatest 24-Hr Rainfall

1.825m (71.8")

7-8/1/1966

1966-1990

Foc-Foc, La Réunion

21°14'S, 55°41'E

2290m (7513ft)

Greatest 48-Hr Rainfall

2.493m (98.15")

15-16/6/1995

1850-present

Cherrapunji, India

25°02'N, 91°08'E

1313m (4308ft)

Greatest 72-Hr Rainfall

3.929m (154.7")

24-26/2/2007

1968-present

Cratère Commerson, La Réunion

21°12'S, 55°39'E

2310m (7579ft)

Greatest 96-Hr Rainfall

4.869m (191.7")

24-27/2/2007

1968-present

Cratère Commerson, La Réunion

21°12'S, 55°39'E

2310m (7579ft)

Greatest 12-Mo Rainfall

26.47m (1042")

8/1860-7/1861

1851- present

Cherrapunji, India

25°02'N, 91°08'E

1313m 4308ft)

 

 

Largest Rainfall of Tropical Cyclones

Value

Date (D/M/Y)

Length of Record

Tropical Cyclone

Latitude/ Longitude

12 hr

1.144m (45.0")

7-8/1/1966

1966-1990

Tropical Cyclone Denise in South Indian Ocean

21°14'S, 55°41'E

24 hr

1.825m (71.8")

7-8/1/1966

1966- 1990

Tropical Cyclone Denise in South Indian Ocean

21°14'S, 55°41'E

48 hr

2.467m (97.1")

7-9/4/1958

1952-1980/ 2004- present

Unnamed Tropical Cyclone In South Indian Ocean

21°00'S, 55°26'E

72 hr

3.929m (154.7")

24-26/2/2007

1968-present

Tropical Cyclone Gamede in South Indian Ocean

21°12'S, 55°39'E

96 hr

4.869m (191.7")

24-27/2/2007

1968-present

Tropical Cyclone Gamede in South Indian Ocean

21°12'S, 55°39'E

10-day

5.678m (223.5")

18-27/1/1980

1968- present

Tropical Cyclone Hyacinte in South Indian Ocean

21°12'S, 55°39'E

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

P.KANHYE.                                                              11 APRIL 2014

 

 Read more: HELLEN (9th) INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE-27 MARCH 2014;

                  HELLEN (9th) TROPICAL CYCLONE IN FORMATION-06 MARCH 2014;

                  RAINFALL AND CYCLONE PATTERNS.

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