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 ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

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SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

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HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
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 Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

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The MMS notified another Special Bulletin on Saturday 07 March:

[Special Weather Bulletin

Sat, Mar 7, 2015

Heavy rain warning Bulletin issued at 1700 hours.

A heavy rain warning is in force in Mauritius valid until Sunday 08 March 2015 at 17h00.

Active clouds associated with a convergence zone over the Mascarene is causing moderate to heavy scattered showers and thunderstorms over the whole islands.

The showers may become widespread and abundant tomorrow afternoon mainly to the west, the south west and over the Central Plateau.]

The Rainfalls recorded in Mauritius during the last 24 hours have been as

follows:

Grand Bassin-265 mm; Mare aux Vacoas-191.8 mm; Riche en Eau-164.6 mm; Mon Bois 159 mm; Providence-144.2 mm;Mon Loisir Rouillard-141.6 mm; Plaisance-140 mm; Nouvelle Decouverte-126 mm; Vacoas 115.1 mm; Pointe aux Canonniers-103.2 mm and others lesser minimum 51 mm.

Reunion Island which was on HEAVY RAINFALL ALERT since Saturday 07 March recorded more than twice the rate than Mauritius:

Salazie-534.4 mm; Belle Combe-514 mm; Plaine des Palmistes- 354.6 mm; Le Baril-290.4 mm; Grand Coude- 267.5 mm; Gillot- 197.6 mm; Plaine des Cafres-195.1 mm Cilaos-193.2 mm mainly.

 

The MMS Alert valid until 17.00 hours Sunday was removed as Rains stopped in the morning. However, another Bulletin was issued’

[Special Weather Bulletin

Sun, Mar 8, 2015

Heavy rain warning Bulletin issued at 11h30 this Sunday 08 March 2015.

A heavy rain warning is in force in Mauritius valid until 05h00 on Monday 09 March 2015.

Active clouds associated with a convergence zone over the Mascarenes are causing moderate to heavy scattered showers and thunderstorms over the whole island.

The showers may be widespread and abundant late in the afternoon and during the night mainly to the North, West, South and over the Central Plateau.

It is to be noted that there will be short breaks in between the showery periods.]

A second has been issued at 17.00 hrs on Sunday 08 both for Mauritius and Rodrigues. Click here to see live the evolution of HALIBA.

Note that the MMS has not, so far, drawn any Forecast Track for either of the 2 Weather Systems in contrast to JTWC, Météo-France and this Website. 

 

OBSERVATIONS

It is noticeable that Rainfalls, Heat and Humidity have influenced this part of the Indian Ocean after the passing of Cyclone GLENDA (24-28 February 2015). Temperature has made a peak of 30.50 Celsius in Reunion and 34.80 in Mauritius. Agalega was showered by 64 mm of rain on Monday 02 March, Reunion recorded 100 mm to the maximum on Wednesday 04 March and Mauritius received 92.8 mm at Le Morne on 05 March after a Heavy Rain Alert. Vigorous Thunder and Lightning have accompanied the Weather Systems. The Atmosphere of this Zone indicated clearly the Weather Conditions which are likely to prevail, with various bands of dark cumulus clouds both at low and high altitudes. See pictures.

 

                                        

It is equally noticeable that the Rain Clouds associated in the Zone of East Africa, Mozambique Channel and Western Madagascar have moved towards East Madagascar. Usually, this is the Zone of Convection for the South West Indian Ocean. At the same time this also the area of impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has fed the Tropical Disturbance 12-20142015. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) has also been vigorous. As a result, all the three Atmospheric Systems have merged making a Triple Junction, as mentioned in previous articles.

 

There are 3 Monsoon Systems which prevail in this Blue Planet: Asia, Australia and Africa according to their specific periods. South West Indian Ocean is the Cradle of World Rainfall Records which have happened almost along the Triple Junction mentioned above.

According to the Archives of World Meteorological Organisation:

Greatest 1-Min Rainfall 31.2mm (1.23") 4/7/1956 1948- present Unionville, MD, USA 38°48'N, 76°08'W 152m (499ft)
Greatest 60-Min Rainfall 305mm (12.0") 22/6/1947   Holt, MO, USA 39°27'N, 94°20'W 263m (863ft)
Greatest 12-Hr Rainfall 1.144 m (45.0'') 7-8/1/1966 1966-1990 Foc-Foc, La Réunion 21°14'S, 55°41'E 2290m (7513ft)
Greatest 24-Hr Rainfall 1.825m (71.8") 7-8/1/1966 1966-1990 Foc-Foc, La Réunion 21°14'S, 55°41'E 2290m (7513ft)
Greatest 48-Hr Rainfall 2.493m (98.15") 15-16/6/1995 1850-present Cherrapunji, India 25°02'N, 91°08'E 1313m (4308ft)
Greatest 72-Hr Rainfall 3.929m (154.7") 24-26/2/2007 1968-present Cratère Commerson, La Réunion 21°12'S, 55°39'E 2310m (7579ft)
Greatest 96-Hr Rainfall 4.869m (191.7") 24-27/2/2007 1968-present Cratère Commerson, La Réunion 21°12'S, 55°39'E 2310m (7579ft)
Greatest 12-Mo Rainfall 26.47m (1042") 8/1860-7/1861 1851- present Cherrapunji, India 25°02'N, 91°08'E 1313m 

 

 

Largest Rainfall of Tropical CyclonesValueDate (D/M/Y)Length of RecordTropical Cyclone 
12 hr 1.144m (45.0") 7-8/1/1966 1966-1990 Tropical Cyclone Denise in South Indian Ocean  
24 hr 1.825m (71.8") 7-8/1/1966 1966- 1990 Tropical Cyclone Denise in South Indian Ocean  
48 hr 2.467m (97.1") 7-9/4/1958 1952-1980/ 2004- present Unnamed Tropical Cyclone In South Indian Ocean  
72 hr 3.929m (154.7") 24-26/2/2007 1968-present Tropical Cyclone Gamede in South Indian Ocean  
96 hr 4.869m (191.7") 24-27/2/2007 1968-present Tropical Cyclone Gamede in South Indian Ocean  
10-day 5.678m (223.5") 18-27/1/1980 1968- present Tropical Cyclone Hyacinte in South Indian Ocean  

 

The questions are: why the Rainfall Pattern which is currently taking place, as from January to March not recognised as the MONSOON SYSTEM of the South West Indian Ocean? Is it not a PHENOMENON in Hydrology? The dates mentioned in the WMO record prove this. Moreover, Laymen of the agricultural sector know traditionally that the month of March is the right time for vegetable cultivation, especially onions.

 

Climate and Weather Phenomena

Scientists, Meteorologists and Researchers, including others, have rung the Alarm Bell since a decade or so, that Natural Disasters are occurring in Frequency and in Intensity, globally. There are lots of such Natural Events taking places in the Southern Hemisphere of the Indian Ocean. Just like Typhoons in the South East Asia and Hurricanes in America, Tropical Cyclones are visiting the South West Indian Ocean Frequently, Intensely and also in Pairs or as Twins.

AMARA and BRUCE (19-22 December 2013), BANSI (11-16 January 2015) and CHEDZA (15-16 January 2015) , DIAMONDRA (27-29 January 2015) and EUNICE (28-30 January 2015). TROPICAL DISTURBANCES 11-20142015 and 12-20142015 which are currently influencing the Mascarene Islands-Reunion, Mauritius and Rodrigues is a vivid example of such PHENOMENON-Twin Cyclonic Systems. The question is whether these TWINS are capable to fuse together. See more explanation on the Fujiwhara Effect.

LUC (19-20 February 2015) and MARCIA (19-20 February 2015) in Australia is another set of example.

 

Predictions

The Tropical Disturbance 12-20142015 is highly likely to continue as a MONSOON Weather System. If it intensifies, then it will be named as HALIBA. See Forecast Track on top. The Tropical Disturbance 11-20142015 in the Mozambique Channel will evolve there for a few more days. It is highly likely to intensify as a Tropical Cyclone and eventually be named as IKOLA (another TWIN).

NASA has renamed Tropical Disturbance 11-20142015 as TD 15 S. It has forecast the System to intensify and to make landfall in South-West Madagascar in a few days time. Check here.

 

Disaster Management Centre

The Disaster Management Centre of Mauritius continues to be ‘Ghost-Like and Reactive’. Bridges have seen overflowed, damaged, more than a hundred houses and buildings have been flooded and damaged. The Mitigation and Resilience mechanisms have not been activated. This is regrettably a total failure of the ‘Country-Driven’ Mechanisms of Disaster Resilience. The Minister of Environment who leads the response and rescue operations is not well educated in Awareness of the Atmospheric Systems which prevail in the South Indian Ocean.

                                      

Moreover, the Meteorological Services should have alerted Flood and/or Torrential Rain Warning. Professionalism and Dynamism are still utterly lacking.

 

NB: Neither the Disaster Management Centre nor the Meteorological Services nor any Institution of the Republic of Mauritius make an Assessment Report after any Natural Calamity. 

Keep Watch for updates.

P.KANHYE.                                                                    SUNDAY 08 MARCH 2015.

 

Comments   

0 #2 Bakers 2015-03-17 16:01
I enjoy reading all your articles.
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0 #1 Nyle 2015-03-14 17:00
Very good! You are an inspiring writer. Thanks!
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