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UPDATED: SUNDAY 15 MARCH 2015

 OPEN ALL PAGES TO READ WHOLE ARTICLE.

Météo Madagascar finally named the Tropical Depression 12-20142015 as Moderate Tropical Storm HALIBA on 08 March -3 hours after this article was uploaded.

The Heavy Rainfall valid until 17.00 hrs Sunday 08 March was removed, because rain had stopped. However, anotherHeavy rain warning Bulletin issued at 11h30 this Sunday 08 March 2015.

A heavy rain warning is in force in Mauritius valid until 05h00 on Monday 09 March 2015.'

Rainfall recorded by MMS was as follows:  

Albion-66 mm; Champs de Mars-49 mm; Grand Bassin-188 mm; Moka-56 mm; Mon Bois-91mm; Mon Loisir Rouillard-74 mm; Nouvelle Decouverte-84 mm; Plaisance (Aeroport)-96 mm

Pointe aux canonniers-46 mm; Providence-96 mm; Riche en Eau-86 mm; Vacoas-58 mm. 

[A heavy rain warning is in force in Mauritius valid until 17h00 tomorrow Tuesday 10 March 2015.

At 16h00, Moderate Tropical Storm "HALIBA" was centered in latitude 21.8 degrees south and longitude 55.2 degrees east, at about 270 km to the west-south-west of Mauritius.  It is moving in an east-south-easterly directions at 15 km/h.

On this trajectory, "HALIBA" will pass at about 200 km/h at its closest distance, to the south-south-west of Baie du Cap, late tonight.  Active cloud bands associated with the Moderate Tropical Storm will continue to influence the weather over Mauritius.]

[Supplementary Info:  From 1st to 9th March 2015, Mauritius has recorded a mean of 287 mm of rainfall which represents 109 % of the long term mean for the month of March.]

 

All schools: primary, secondary and tertiary were closed on Monday 09 March.

 

The impact of the Rains caused lots of flooding to houses, roads and crops in almost throughout the country. The Fire and Rescue Services had to intervene in more than a hundred cases of water evacuations. About a dozen persons were evacuated to a shelter because of landslides hazards in the South East of the island.

[Heavy rain warning bulletin for Mauritius issued at 05h00 this Tuesday 10 March 2015.

 A heavy rain warning is in force in Mauritius valid until 17h00 this Tuesday 10 March 2015....]

["HALIBA" has already passed at its closest distance to Mauritius at about 200 km to the South

South West of Baie du cap at around 01h00 this morning.
Active cloud bands associated with Moderate Tropical Storm 'HALIBA' will continue to influence the weather over Mauritius.
]

74 mm of Rainfall at Rose Belle were recorded in 24 hours between 9-10 March. 

 

However, rains had stopped in most regions Tuesday 10 March. This caused some surprise to the population of Mauritius. The following day-Wednesday 11 March all schools were authorised to open despite:

[Communique special de la meteo pour Maurice emis a 07h15 ce Mercredi 11 Mars 2015.

 Une ligne de grains traversera l'ile dans la matinee et provoquera des averses

 orageuses, moderees par moments et des vents forts avec rafales atteignant les

80 km/h par endroits. La plus grande prudence est recommandee surtout sur les routes.]

 

Rain started to fall as from the morning. Given, that 11 March is the eve of the National Independence Day, the message of the Prime Minister was read in all schools.

 

While the Meteorological Services of Mauritius was trying hard, during these days, to get attuned to the Samba Dance of HALIBA, Reunion- Sister Island was under the stress of Rain, Gusts and Sea Swells.

  

  • The Rainfall in 24 hours was recorded on Monday 10 March as follows:

          Le Brule-280 mm; Salazie-275.5 mm; Bras Panon-239.3 mm; Gillot-168.3; Le Colosse-   

          141.4 mm; Trois Bassin-113.5 mm; Belle Combe-104.4 mm and Pl. des Cafres-77.7 mm. 

 

  • On Tuesday 11 March the Rainfalls were as follows: Petite France-235.4 mm; Le Brule-208.2 mm; Salazie-108.7 mm; Bras Panon-131.2 mm; Gillot Airport-95.1 mm.
  • Wednesday 11 March Rainfalls showered the following places: Le Brule-266.6 mm; Piton Maido-248.4 mm; Petite Frnace-224.8 mm; Cilaos-166.3 mm; Salazie-162.7 mm; Bras Panon-140.9 mm; St. Denis-120 mm.

 

According to Réunion 1ère Radio HALIBA tracked at its nearest point 90 km South of Réunion. The impact caused power cut and internet disruption to over 1,000 consumers; falling rocks and soil blocked many roads, especially the coastal regions causing vehicle users to take more than 3 hours to reach their destination; all schools were closed as from Monday to Wednesday and air flights towards Madagascar and Seychelles were cancelled/postponed.

A representative of Météo-France stated to the Radio Station that this Pattern of Rain takes place every ten years. All these explain clearly that HALIBA was Phenomenal

 

PHENOMENON and PUZZLE

Reunion Island

According to the Météo-France Assessment Report on Very Intense Cyclone BANSI the Highest Rainfalls recorded as from 7 hours 15 January to 7 hours 16 January were as follows:

494 mm at Chemin Ceinture; 483 mm at les Hauts de Ste-Rose; 332 mm at Beauvallon and Menciol and 317 mm at Colosse.

According to the Météo-France Assessment Report on Intense Tropical Storm CHEDZA (17-19 January 2015) the maximum Rainfalls occurred on 18 January: 131-172 mm around Mafate and Salazie.

In another Report explains that Torrential Rain occurred between 1 am-7 am on Saturday 24 January 2015: 301 mm at Piton-Bloc Cirad; 167 mm at Ligne-Paradis Cirad and 134 mm at Pierrefonds Cirad.

In addition, during Cyclone Tropical BEJISA (1-3 January 2014) the maximum cumulative rainfall reached 1025 mm.

During Cyclone DUMILE (2-3 January 2013) the maximum cumulative Rainfall reached 1102 mm.

The Highest Rainfall recorded during 27-28 March 2012 reached 404 mm within 24 hours.

 

Mauritius

It is noteworthy to say that a few regions of Mauritius experienced landslides because of continual rainfall since October 2014 below 40 mm, below 50 mm in November and above 60 mm with a peak of 135.4 mm on 24 December. Rainfalls persisted in January 2015 with an average and above average peaking to 122.6 mm on 23 January. Very Intense Cyclone BANSI (11-16 January 2015) generated Rainfall maximum of 145.4 mm in Rodrigues Island on 16 January 2015.

During CHEDZA (17-19 January 2015) episode average rainfalls were recorded with 82.8 mm on 20 January.

DIAMONDRA (20-23 January 2015) favoured 122.6 mm on 23 January and 167mm at Rose Belle on 24 January.

EUNICE (28 January-02 February 2015) influenced Rodrigues (No data is available from the MMS).

FUNDI (6-8 February) showered Mon Bois Mauritius with 82.4 mm on 08 February. Maximum Rainfall recorded on 10 February was at Mon Bois -102.4 mm and 95.4 mm at Nouvelle Découverte on 21 February.

GLENDA (25-27 February 2015) episode marks maximum Rainfalls of 37.4 mm at Grand Bassin on 27 February.

On 02 March Agalega Island recorded 64 mm of Rain.

On 04 March 67.8 mm were recorded at Rose Belle.

On 05 March 92.8 mm showered Le Morne.

On 07 March 33 mm fell in Grand Bassin.

The months of February and March are also NOTORIOUS: Deadly Flood of 26 March 2008, the Torrential Rain of 13 February 2013, the Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013, Torrential Rain of 14 March 2014 (Rodrigues). 

 

NB: The Mauritius Meteorological Services has been issuing Warnings of Heavy Rainfalls, Sea Swells and Winds almost continually during all the episodes. Moreover, Vigorous Thunder and Lightning have prevailed.

Madagascar and Sub-Saharan Africa have been under miserable stress of Extreme Weather Conditions, mainly from October 2014 until now.

It is conclusive that the months of January, February and March constitute the MONSOON SEASON for the South West Indian Ocean, considering also the World Records mentioned above. 

In addition, HALIBA is also associated with Tropical Disturbance 11-20142015 whose rain clouds fused with it. This may be considered as a case of Fujiwara Effect mentioned above.

The eye of HALIBA was not in a position to develop. So, it was rather split into two quadrants covering both Reunion and Mauritius. See METEOSAT 7 picture provided to the MMS.

Many people noticed, just before sunrise on Wednesday 11 March, that the sky appeared brilliant with yellowish brown colour. In the language of TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE this means that Rainfalls are highly likely to continue.

 

It is also to be noted that cyclones are forming and evolving in Pairs or Twins. The current examples are OWLYN and NATHAN in the Australian territory and PAM and BAVI in the Pacific Ocean,in the zone of Warm Pool. All these have taken birth almost simultaneously between 10 and 11 March 2015. Click picture to enlarge.

Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM of Category 5 has passed along VANUATU (an archipelago made of 83 islands) and has been very disastrous: Winds blowing ‘at 268.5 kph, an Eye as cold as -610 Celsius and 629.7 km in Diameter’, according to NASA. Moreover, Ocean Surge, 8 metres high, has aggravated the miseries of the inhabitants, about 44 of whom have been reported dead, as at 13 March and unprecedented damage caused to houses (rudimentary in nature), crops, power supply and infrastructure. Click here to watch video.

 

 

The International Community is already responding with material help and donations. Check here. Click to verify with UN/FAO. Mauritius, Madagascar and Mozambique are in the same situation these days. 

Other cyclones are expected in due course. It is also to be noted that Vanuatu island is found near the border of Tectonic Plates of Australia and Pacific. Verify with NASA. Also here.

 

OBSERVATIONS

The other interesting event is the Track of HALIBA. The MMS stated that Moderate Tropical Storm HALIBA passed 200 km South South-West of Mauritius at 1.00 am on Tuesday 10 March.

Météo-France-Réunion stated that HALIBA passed 90 km South of Réunion in the afternoon of 09 March.

NASA stated that HALIBA passed between Mauritius and Réunion "Tropical Storm Haliba appeared to be the "filling" in a sandwich between the Southern Indian Ocean islands of La Reunion and Mauritius Refer to Forecast Track on page 1, which is closer to that of NASA. All these appear to be a little contradictory, which is which? That is why I mentioned in the introduction above that HALIBA was PHENOMENAL and a PUZZLE.

                                                        

Click here to verify with NASA.

Météo-France explains that HALIBA was a Dangerous Meteorological Event for which Heavy Rainfalls Alerts were needed than Cyclone Warnings:

[un EvénementMétéorologique Dangereux, conduisant à la mise en Vigilance Renforcée « Fortes pluies » d’une partie de La Réunion, et non comme une alerte cyclonique (reposant exclusivement sur un risque de vents).]

 This is also applicable to Mauritius and Rodrigues.

 

REQUEST

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is requested to consider, recognise and encourage the concept of SOUTH WEST INDIAN OCEAN MONSOON SYSTEM, as explained briefly above. WMO should bring forward an Adaptation Work Plan in this direction with the contribution of the scientific world. The request is also addressed to all the Meteorological and Hydrological Services of members of Region 1 of WMO, namely Seychelles, Comoros, Mayotte, Madagascar, Réunion and Mauritius. Météo-France-Reunion, which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of this zone, is also invited to do so. It is the most dynamic centre with lots of data and information capable to support this issue.

 

Note: The Temperature seems to decrease and the Humidy rate also dropped. These indicate that the Winter Season is not far. Yet, this does not mean that Cyclonic Season is over, as this is the transition period. IKOLA may be in formation and Rainy days will also continue. Keep watch. 

 

P.KANHYE.                                         UPDATED SUNDAY 15 MARCH 2015.

Read moreGLENDA 10th Cyclone of Season 2014-2015 for South Indian Ocean;

                 FUNDI CYCLONE (92 S INVEST)-9TH OF SEASON 2014-2015 FOR SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN

                 EUNICE Very Intense Tropical Cyclone-8th of Season 2014-2015 for South Indian Ocean;

                 Diamondra Cyclone-7th for Summer Season 2014-2015 of the South Indian Ocean;

                 CHEDZA Moderate Tropical Storm-6th Weather System of Season 2014-2015;

                 BANSI VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE-FIRST PHENOMENON FOR SUMMER SEASON 2014-2015;

                 ADJALI FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE OF SEASON 2014-2015 FOR SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN;

                 CYCLONE NAMES FOR SEASON 2014-2015 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN and others. 

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Comments   

0 #2 Bakers 2015-03-17 16:01
I enjoy reading all your articles.
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0 #1 Nyle 2015-03-14 17:00
Very good! You are an inspiring writer. Thanks!
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