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HALIBA 11th Tropical Cyclone in Formation and Tropical Disturbance

Generating Monsoon Rains in the South West Indian Ocean

SEE UPDATE BELOW


The Cyclonic Season 2014-2015 of the South West Indian Ocean continues to be Very Dynamic. One interesting feature is that the Zones of the Mozambique Channel and Madagascar seem to give birth to series of Tropical Depressions, Cyclones and Precipitations. On one hand they appear to be Phenomenal and on the other hand a Puzzle to the Scientific Community. As observed since 02 March 2015, the Low Pressure which evolved in the North East of Madagascar does not appear to intensify rapidly. However, it is moving towards the South and generating Monsoon Rains. If it intensifies then i
t has the potential to form the 11th Tropical Cyclone which can be eventually named as HALIBA by Madagascar.Whereas, the Low Pressure located in the Mozambique Channel is swirling rather towards the South West, i.e. Continental Africa and is evolving slowly and incoherently. (Click pictures to enlarge).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) identified Low Pressure Systems both in the North West of Madagascar (Mozambique Channel) and in the North East of Madagascar as from 04 March 2015.

JTWC Alert was as follows:

[ABIO10 PGTW 04 2230

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

/REISSUED/042230Z-051800ZMAR2015//

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 42.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 42.1E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST…

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.]

JTWC issued another Alert for the same Weather System on 08 March as follows:

[ABIO10 PGTW 080300

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 40.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 40.8E, APPROXIMATELY 382 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

Regarding the Tropical Disturbance located in the North East of Madagascar JTWC issued Alert as from 05 March:

 [ABIO10 PGTW 05 1800

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/05 1800Z-06 1800Z MAR 2015.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.5S 52.2E,

APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 051324Z SSMIS PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG THE PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. BECAUSE

THE LLCC IS JUST BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT

TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.]

JTWC issued another Alert for the same Weather System at 3.00 on 08 March as mentioned below:

[ABIO10 PGTW 08 0300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN…

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.1S 49.7E

IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 50.0E, APPROXIMATELY 339 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.]

 

Météo-France-Réunion which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) for the South West Indian Ocean issued its advisories on Tropical Disturbance 94 S INVEST after renaming it as 11-20142015

[Bulletin du 06 mars à 16H16 locales:

Nature du système dépressionnaire tropical présent sur le Sud-Ouest de l'Océan Indien.

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 11-20142015.

Pression estimée au centre: 1000 HPA.

Position le 06 mars à 16 heures locales: 16.4 Sud / 41.2 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 1560 km au secteur: OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

Déplacement: OUEST, à 6 km/h.

Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 07/03 à 16h locales, par 16.2 Sud / 40.8 Est.

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,

Centre positionné le 08/03 à 16h locales, par 17.2 Sud / 42.0 Est.

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 09/03 à 16h locales, par 18.2 Sud / 43.4 Est.

DEPRESSION SUR TERRE,

Centre positionné le 10/03 à 16h locales, par 19.4 Sud / 46.7 Est.

PERTURBATION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 11/03 à 16h locales, par 20.9 Sud / 51.4 Est’.]

 

[Bulletin du 07 mars à 04H17 locales:

Nature du système dépressionnaire tropical présent sur le Sud-Ouest de l'Océan Indien.

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 11-20142015.

Pression estimée au centre: 1000 HPA.

Position le 07 mars à 04 heures locales: 16.7 Sud / 41.2 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 1555 km au secteur: OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

Déplacement: SUD-SUD-OUEST, à 11 km/h.

Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,

Centre positionné le 08/03 à 04h locales, par 17.0 Sud / 41.6 Est.

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,

Centre positionné le 09/03 à 04h locales, par 18.4 Sud / 43.5 Est.

DEPRESSION SUR TERRE,

Centre positionné le 10/03 à 04h locales, par 19.6 Sud / 47.7 Est.

PERTURBATION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 11/03 à 04h locales, par 20.0 Sud / 53.7 Est.

PERTURBATION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 12/03 à 04h locales, par 24.4 Sud / 59.6 Est.]

 

[Bulletin du 07 mars à 16H52 locales:

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 11-20142015.

Pression estimée au centre: 1003 HPA.

Position le 07 mars à 16 heures locales: 16.6 Sud / 40.7 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 1600 km au secteur: OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

Déplacement: OUEST, à 4 km/h.

Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

PERTURBATION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 08/03 à 16h locales, par 16.7 Sud / 42.9 Est.]

 

Météo-France-Reunion issued a Bulletin regarding the Tropical Disturbance located on the Eastern Side of Madgascar

[Bulletin du 07 mars à 16H52 locales:

ZONE PERTURBEE 12-20142015.

Pression estimée au centre: 1003 HPA.

Position le 07 mars à 16 heures locales: 18.9 Sud / 49.6 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 635 km au secteur: OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

Déplacement: SUD, à 6 km/h.

Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 08/03 à 16h locales, par 20.6 Sud / 51.7 Est.

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 09/03 à 16h locales, par 21.7 Sud / 55.6 Est.

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 10/03 à 16h locales, par 23.0 Sud / 59.6 Est.

DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 11/03 à 16h locales, par 25.2 Sud / 62.4 Est.

DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 12/03 à 16h locales, par 27.8 Sud / 65.4 Est.]

 

[Bulletin du 08 mars à 10H42 locales:

Nature du système dépressionnaire tropical présent sur le Sud-Ouest de l'Océan Indien.

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 12-20142015.

Pression estimée au centre: 999 HPA.

Position le 08 mars à 10 heures locales: 19.7 Sud / 50.6 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 505 km au secteur: OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

Déplacement: SUD-EST, à 9 km/h.

Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 09/03 à 10h locales, par 21.0 Sud / 54.2 Est.

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,

Centre positionné le 10/03 à 10h locales, par 22.3 Sud / 59.0 Est.

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,

Centre positionné le 11/03 à 10h locales, par 24.5 Sud / 62.2 Est.

DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE,

Centre positionné le 12/03 à 10h locales, par 26.1 Sud / 63.6 Est.]  

 

Météo-France-Réunion is still on High Alert. Click here to verify.

The Mauritius Meteorological Services issued a Special Bulletin on Friday 06 March mentioning, amongst others:

[Special weather bulletin issued on Friday 06 March 2015 at 15hr30.

General situation:
(a) The air mass covering our region remains moist and unstable, thereby favouring active cloud developments during the week-end.
(b) A vast area of low pressure extends from the Tromelin Island to the Mozambique Channel with several pressure minima. One of these pressure minima to the north-east of madagascar is likely to develop into a weak low today. Most numerical models indicate that this weak low may deepen further into a tropical disturbance during the week-end
.]

Forecast valid until Tuesday 10 March 2015.

 


The MMS notified another Special Bulletin on Saturday 07 March:

[Special Weather Bulletin

Sat, Mar 7, 2015

Heavy rain warning Bulletin issued at 1700 hours.

A heavy rain warning is in force in Mauritius valid until Sunday 08 March 2015 at 17h00.

Active clouds associated with a convergence zone over the Mascarene is causing moderate to heavy scattered showers and thunderstorms over the whole islands.

The showers may become widespread and abundant tomorrow afternoon mainly to the west, the south west and over the Central Plateau.]

The Rainfalls recorded in Mauritius during the last 24 hours have been as

follows:

Grand Bassin-265 mm; Mare aux Vacoas-191.8 mm; Riche en Eau-164.6 mm; Mon Bois 159 mm; Providence-144.2 mm;Mon Loisir Rouillard-141.6 mm; Plaisance-140 mm; Nouvelle Decouverte-126 mm; Vacoas 115.1 mm; Pointe aux Canonniers-103.2 mm and others lesser minimum 51 mm.

Reunion Island which was on HEAVY RAINFALL ALERT since Saturday 07 March recorded more than twice the rate than Mauritius:

Salazie-534.4 mm; Belle Combe-514 mm; Plaine des Palmistes- 354.6 mm; Le Baril-290.4 mm; Grand Coude- 267.5 mm; Gillot- 197.6 mm; Plaine des Cafres-195.1 mm Cilaos-193.2 mm mainly.

 

The MMS Alert valid until 17.00 hours Sunday was removed as Rains stopped in the morning. However, another Bulletin was issued’

[Special Weather Bulletin

Sun, Mar 8, 2015

Heavy rain warning Bulletin issued at 11h30 this Sunday 08 March 2015.

A heavy rain warning is in force in Mauritius valid until 05h00 on Monday 09 March 2015.

Active clouds associated with a convergence zone over the Mascarenes are causing moderate to heavy scattered showers and thunderstorms over the whole island.

The showers may be widespread and abundant late in the afternoon and during the night mainly to the North, West, South and over the Central Plateau.

It is to be noted that there will be short breaks in between the showery periods.]

A second has been issued at 17.00 hrs on Sunday 08 both for Mauritius and Rodrigues. Click here to see live the evolution of HALIBA.

Note that the MMS has not, so far, drawn any Forecast Track for either of the 2 Weather Systems in contrast to JTWC, Météo-France and this Website. 

 

OBSERVATIONS

It is noticeable that Rainfalls, Heat and Humidity have influenced this part of the Indian Ocean after the passing of Cyclone GLENDA (24-28 February 2015). Temperature has made a peak of 30.50 Celsius in Reunion and 34.80 in Mauritius. Agalega was showered by 64 mm of rain on Monday 02 March, Reunion recorded 100 mm to the maximum on Wednesday 04 March and Mauritius received 92.8 mm at Le Morne on 05 March after a Heavy Rain Alert. Vigorous Thunder and Lightning have accompanied the Weather Systems. The Atmosphere of this Zone indicated clearly the Weather Conditions which are likely to prevail, with various bands of dark cumulus clouds both at low and high altitudes. See pictures.

 

                                        

It is equally noticeable that the Rain Clouds associated in the Zone of East Africa, Mozambique Channel and Western Madagascar have moved towards East Madagascar. Usually, this is the Zone of Convection for the South West Indian Ocean. At the same time this also the area of impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has fed the Tropical Disturbance 12-20142015. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) has also been vigorous. As a result, all the three Atmospheric Systems have merged making a Triple Junction, as mentioned in previous articles.

 

There are 3 Monsoon Systems which prevail in this Blue Planet: Asia, Australia and Africa according to their specific periods. South West Indian Ocean is the Cradle of World Rainfall Records which have happened almost along the Triple Junction mentioned above.

According to the Archives of World Meteorological Organisation:

Greatest 1-Min Rainfall 31.2mm (1.23") 4/7/1956 1948- present Unionville, MD, USA 38°48'N, 76°08'W 152m (499ft)
Greatest 60-Min Rainfall 305mm (12.0") 22/6/1947   Holt, MO, USA 39°27'N, 94°20'W 263m (863ft)
Greatest 12-Hr Rainfall 1.144 m (45.0'') 7-8/1/1966 1966-1990 Foc-Foc, La Réunion 21°14'S, 55°41'E 2290m (7513ft)
Greatest 24-Hr Rainfall 1.825m (71.8") 7-8/1/1966 1966-1990 Foc-Foc, La Réunion 21°14'S, 55°41'E 2290m (7513ft)
Greatest 48-Hr Rainfall 2.493m (98.15") 15-16/6/1995 1850-present Cherrapunji, India 25°02'N, 91°08'E 1313m (4308ft)
Greatest 72-Hr Rainfall 3.929m (154.7") 24-26/2/2007 1968-present Cratère Commerson, La Réunion 21°12'S, 55°39'E 2310m (7579ft)
Greatest 96-Hr Rainfall 4.869m (191.7") 24-27/2/2007 1968-present Cratère Commerson, La Réunion 21°12'S, 55°39'E 2310m (7579ft)
Greatest 12-Mo Rainfall 26.47m (1042") 8/1860-7/1861 1851- present Cherrapunji, India 25°02'N, 91°08'E 1313m 

 

 

Largest Rainfall of Tropical CyclonesValueDate (D/M/Y)Length of RecordTropical Cyclone 
12 hr 1.144m (45.0") 7-8/1/1966 1966-1990 Tropical Cyclone Denise in South Indian Ocean  
24 hr 1.825m (71.8") 7-8/1/1966 1966- 1990 Tropical Cyclone Denise in South Indian Ocean  
48 hr 2.467m (97.1") 7-9/4/1958 1952-1980/ 2004- present Unnamed Tropical Cyclone In South Indian Ocean  
72 hr 3.929m (154.7") 24-26/2/2007 1968-present Tropical Cyclone Gamede in South Indian Ocean  
96 hr 4.869m (191.7") 24-27/2/2007 1968-present Tropical Cyclone Gamede in South Indian Ocean  
10-day 5.678m (223.5") 18-27/1/1980 1968- present Tropical Cyclone Hyacinte in South Indian Ocean  

 

The questions are: why the Rainfall Pattern which is currently taking place, as from January to March not recognised as the MONSOON SYSTEM of the South West Indian Ocean? Is it not a PHENOMENON in Hydrology? The dates mentioned in the WMO record prove this. Moreover, Laymen of the agricultural sector know traditionally that the month of March is the right time for vegetable cultivation, especially onions.

 

Climate and Weather Phenomena

Scientists, Meteorologists and Researchers, including others, have rung the Alarm Bell since a decade or so, that Natural Disasters are occurring in Frequency and in Intensity, globally. There are lots of such Natural Events taking places in the Southern Hemisphere of the Indian Ocean. Just like Typhoons in the South East Asia and Hurricanes in America, Tropical Cyclones are visiting the South West Indian Ocean Frequently, Intensely and also in Pairs or as Twins.

AMARA and BRUCE (19-22 December 2013), BANSI (11-16 January 2015) and CHEDZA (15-16 January 2015) , DIAMONDRA (27-29 January 2015) and EUNICE (28-30 January 2015). TROPICAL DISTURBANCES 11-20142015 and 12-20142015 which are currently influencing the Mascarene Islands-Reunion, Mauritius and Rodrigues is a vivid example of such PHENOMENON-Twin Cyclonic Systems. The question is whether these TWINS are capable to fuse together. See more explanation on the Fujiwhara Effect.

LUC (19-20 February 2015) and MARCIA (19-20 February 2015) in Australia is another set of example.

 

Predictions

The Tropical Disturbance 12-20142015 is highly likely to continue as a MONSOON Weather System. If it intensifies, then it will be named as HALIBA. See Forecast Track on top. The Tropical Disturbance 11-20142015 in the Mozambique Channel will evolve there for a few more days. It is highly likely to intensify as a Tropical Cyclone and eventually be named as IKOLA (another TWIN).

NASA has renamed Tropical Disturbance 11-20142015 as TD 15 S. It has forecast the System to intensify and to make landfall in South-West Madagascar in a few days time. Check here.

 

Disaster Management Centre

The Disaster Management Centre of Mauritius continues to be ‘Ghost-Like and Reactive’. Bridges have seen overflowed, damaged, more than a hundred houses and buildings have been flooded and damaged. The Mitigation and Resilience mechanisms have not been activated. This is regrettably a total failure of the ‘Country-Driven’ Mechanisms of Disaster Resilience. The Minister of Environment who leads the response and rescue operations is not well educated in Awareness of the Atmospheric Systems which prevail in the South Indian Ocean.

                                      

Moreover, the Meteorological Services should have alerted Flood and/or Torrential Rain Warning. Professionalism and Dynamism are still utterly lacking.

 

NB: Neither the Disaster Management Centre nor the Meteorological Services nor any Institution of the Republic of Mauritius make an Assessment Report after any Natural Calamity. 

Keep Watch for updates.

P.KANHYE.                                                                    SUNDAY 08 MARCH 2015.

 


 

UPDATED: SUNDAY 15 MARCH 2015

 OPEN ALL PAGES TO READ WHOLE ARTICLE.

Météo Madagascar finally named the Tropical Depression 12-20142015 as Moderate Tropical Storm HALIBA on 08 March -3 hours after this article was uploaded.

The Heavy Rainfall valid until 17.00 hrs Sunday 08 March was removed, because rain had stopped. However, anotherHeavy rain warning Bulletin issued at 11h30 this Sunday 08 March 2015.

A heavy rain warning is in force in Mauritius valid until 05h00 on Monday 09 March 2015.'

Rainfall recorded by MMS was as follows:  

Albion-66 mm; Champs de Mars-49 mm; Grand Bassin-188 mm; Moka-56 mm; Mon Bois-91mm; Mon Loisir Rouillard-74 mm; Nouvelle Decouverte-84 mm; Plaisance (Aeroport)-96 mm

Pointe aux canonniers-46 mm; Providence-96 mm; Riche en Eau-86 mm; Vacoas-58 mm. 

[A heavy rain warning is in force in Mauritius valid until 17h00 tomorrow Tuesday 10 March 2015.

At 16h00, Moderate Tropical Storm "HALIBA" was centered in latitude 21.8 degrees south and longitude 55.2 degrees east, at about 270 km to the west-south-west of Mauritius.  It is moving in an east-south-easterly directions at 15 km/h.

On this trajectory, "HALIBA" will pass at about 200 km/h at its closest distance, to the south-south-west of Baie du Cap, late tonight.  Active cloud bands associated with the Moderate Tropical Storm will continue to influence the weather over Mauritius.]

[Supplementary Info:  From 1st to 9th March 2015, Mauritius has recorded a mean of 287 mm of rainfall which represents 109 % of the long term mean for the month of March.]

 

All schools: primary, secondary and tertiary were closed on Monday 09 March.

 

The impact of the Rains caused lots of flooding to houses, roads and crops in almost throughout the country. The Fire and Rescue Services had to intervene in more than a hundred cases of water evacuations. About a dozen persons were evacuated to a shelter because of landslides hazards in the South East of the island.

[Heavy rain warning bulletin for Mauritius issued at 05h00 this Tuesday 10 March 2015.

 A heavy rain warning is in force in Mauritius valid until 17h00 this Tuesday 10 March 2015....]

["HALIBA" has already passed at its closest distance to Mauritius at about 200 km to the South

South West of Baie du cap at around 01h00 this morning.
Active cloud bands associated with Moderate Tropical Storm 'HALIBA' will continue to influence the weather over Mauritius.
]

74 mm of Rainfall at Rose Belle were recorded in 24 hours between 9-10 March. 

 

However, rains had stopped in most regions Tuesday 10 March. This caused some surprise to the population of Mauritius. The following day-Wednesday 11 March all schools were authorised to open despite:

[Communique special de la meteo pour Maurice emis a 07h15 ce Mercredi 11 Mars 2015.

 Une ligne de grains traversera l'ile dans la matinee et provoquera des averses

 orageuses, moderees par moments et des vents forts avec rafales atteignant les

80 km/h par endroits. La plus grande prudence est recommandee surtout sur les routes.]

 

Rain started to fall as from the morning. Given, that 11 March is the eve of the National Independence Day, the message of the Prime Minister was read in all schools.

 

While the Meteorological Services of Mauritius was trying hard, during these days, to get attuned to the Samba Dance of HALIBA, Reunion- Sister Island was under the stress of Rain, Gusts and Sea Swells.

  

  • The Rainfall in 24 hours was recorded on Monday 10 March as follows:

          Le Brule-280 mm; Salazie-275.5 mm; Bras Panon-239.3 mm; Gillot-168.3; Le Colosse-   

          141.4 mm; Trois Bassin-113.5 mm; Belle Combe-104.4 mm and Pl. des Cafres-77.7 mm. 

 

  • On Tuesday 11 March the Rainfalls were as follows: Petite France-235.4 mm; Le Brule-208.2 mm; Salazie-108.7 mm; Bras Panon-131.2 mm; Gillot Airport-95.1 mm.
  • Wednesday 11 March Rainfalls showered the following places: Le Brule-266.6 mm; Piton Maido-248.4 mm; Petite Frnace-224.8 mm; Cilaos-166.3 mm; Salazie-162.7 mm; Bras Panon-140.9 mm; St. Denis-120 mm.

 

According to Réunion 1ère Radio HALIBA tracked at its nearest point 90 km South of Réunion. The impact caused power cut and internet disruption to over 1,000 consumers; falling rocks and soil blocked many roads, especially the coastal regions causing vehicle users to take more than 3 hours to reach their destination; all schools were closed as from Monday to Wednesday and air flights towards Madagascar and Seychelles were cancelled/postponed.

A representative of Météo-France stated to the Radio Station that this Pattern of Rain takes place every ten years. All these explain clearly that HALIBA was Phenomenal

 

PHENOMENON and PUZZLE

Reunion Island

According to the Météo-France Assessment Report on Very Intense Cyclone BANSI the Highest Rainfalls recorded as from 7 hours 15 January to 7 hours 16 January were as follows:

494 mm at Chemin Ceinture; 483 mm at les Hauts de Ste-Rose; 332 mm at Beauvallon and Menciol and 317 mm at Colosse.

According to the Météo-France Assessment Report on Intense Tropical Storm CHEDZA (17-19 January 2015) the maximum Rainfalls occurred on 18 January: 131-172 mm around Mafate and Salazie.

In another Report explains that Torrential Rain occurred between 1 am-7 am on Saturday 24 January 2015: 301 mm at Piton-Bloc Cirad; 167 mm at Ligne-Paradis Cirad and 134 mm at Pierrefonds Cirad.

In addition, during Cyclone Tropical BEJISA (1-3 January 2014) the maximum cumulative rainfall reached 1025 mm.

During Cyclone DUMILE (2-3 January 2013) the maximum cumulative Rainfall reached 1102 mm.

The Highest Rainfall recorded during 27-28 March 2012 reached 404 mm within 24 hours.

 

Mauritius

It is noteworthy to say that a few regions of Mauritius experienced landslides because of continual rainfall since October 2014 below 40 mm, below 50 mm in November and above 60 mm with a peak of 135.4 mm on 24 December. Rainfalls persisted in January 2015 with an average and above average peaking to 122.6 mm on 23 January. Very Intense Cyclone BANSI (11-16 January 2015) generated Rainfall maximum of 145.4 mm in Rodrigues Island on 16 January 2015.

During CHEDZA (17-19 January 2015) episode average rainfalls were recorded with 82.8 mm on 20 January.

DIAMONDRA (20-23 January 2015) favoured 122.6 mm on 23 January and 167mm at Rose Belle on 24 January.

EUNICE (28 January-02 February 2015) influenced Rodrigues (No data is available from the MMS).

FUNDI (6-8 February) showered Mon Bois Mauritius with 82.4 mm on 08 February. Maximum Rainfall recorded on 10 February was at Mon Bois -102.4 mm and 95.4 mm at Nouvelle Découverte on 21 February.

GLENDA (25-27 February 2015) episode marks maximum Rainfalls of 37.4 mm at Grand Bassin on 27 February.

On 02 March Agalega Island recorded 64 mm of Rain.

On 04 March 67.8 mm were recorded at Rose Belle.

On 05 March 92.8 mm showered Le Morne.

On 07 March 33 mm fell in Grand Bassin.

The months of February and March are also NOTORIOUS: Deadly Flood of 26 March 2008, the Torrential Rain of 13 February 2013, the Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013, Torrential Rain of 14 March 2014 (Rodrigues). 

 

NB: The Mauritius Meteorological Services has been issuing Warnings of Heavy Rainfalls, Sea Swells and Winds almost continually during all the episodes. Moreover, Vigorous Thunder and Lightning have prevailed.

Madagascar and Sub-Saharan Africa have been under miserable stress of Extreme Weather Conditions, mainly from October 2014 until now.

It is conclusive that the months of January, February and March constitute the MONSOON SEASON for the South West Indian Ocean, considering also the World Records mentioned above. 

In addition, HALIBA is also associated with Tropical Disturbance 11-20142015 whose rain clouds fused with it. This may be considered as a case of Fujiwara Effect mentioned above.

The eye of HALIBA was not in a position to develop. So, it was rather split into two quadrants covering both Reunion and Mauritius. See METEOSAT 7 picture provided to the MMS.

Many people noticed, just before sunrise on Wednesday 11 March, that the sky appeared brilliant with yellowish brown colour. In the language of TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE this means that Rainfalls are highly likely to continue.

 

It is also to be noted that cyclones are forming and evolving in Pairs or Twins. The current examples are OWLYN and NATHAN in the Australian territory and PAM and BAVI in the Pacific Ocean,in the zone of Warm Pool. All these have taken birth almost simultaneously between 10 and 11 March 2015. Click picture to enlarge.

Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM of Category 5 has passed along VANUATU (an archipelago made of 83 islands) and has been very disastrous: Winds blowing ‘at 268.5 kph, an Eye as cold as -610 Celsius and 629.7 km in Diameter’, according to NASA. Moreover, Ocean Surge, 8 metres high, has aggravated the miseries of the inhabitants, about 44 of whom have been reported dead, as at 13 March and unprecedented damage caused to houses (rudimentary in nature), crops, power supply and infrastructure. Click here to watch video.

 

 

The International Community is already responding with material help and donations. Check here. Click to verify with UN/FAO. Mauritius, Madagascar and Mozambique are in the same situation these days. 

Other cyclones are expected in due course. It is also to be noted that Vanuatu island is found near the border of Tectonic Plates of Australia and Pacific. Verify with NASA. Also here.

 

OBSERVATIONS

The other interesting event is the Track of HALIBA. The MMS stated that Moderate Tropical Storm HALIBA passed 200 km South South-West of Mauritius at 1.00 am on Tuesday 10 March.

Météo-France-Réunion stated that HALIBA passed 90 km South of Réunion in the afternoon of 09 March.

NASA stated that HALIBA passed between Mauritius and Réunion "Tropical Storm Haliba appeared to be the "filling" in a sandwich between the Southern Indian Ocean islands of La Reunion and Mauritius Refer to Forecast Track on page 1, which is closer to that of NASA. All these appear to be a little contradictory, which is which? That is why I mentioned in the introduction above that HALIBA was PHENOMENAL and a PUZZLE.

                                                        

Click here to verify with NASA.

Météo-France explains that HALIBA was a Dangerous Meteorological Event for which Heavy Rainfalls Alerts were needed than Cyclone Warnings:

[un EvénementMétéorologique Dangereux, conduisant à la mise en Vigilance Renforcée « Fortes pluies » d’une partie de La Réunion, et non comme une alerte cyclonique (reposant exclusivement sur un risque de vents).]

 This is also applicable to Mauritius and Rodrigues.

 

REQUEST

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is requested to consider, recognise and encourage the concept of SOUTH WEST INDIAN OCEAN MONSOON SYSTEM, as explained briefly above. WMO should bring forward an Adaptation Work Plan in this direction with the contribution of the scientific world. The request is also addressed to all the Meteorological and Hydrological Services of members of Region 1 of WMO, namely Seychelles, Comoros, Mayotte, Madagascar, Réunion and Mauritius. Météo-France-Reunion, which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of this zone, is also invited to do so. It is the most dynamic centre with lots of data and information capable to support this issue.

 

Note: The Temperature seems to decrease and the Humidy rate also dropped. These indicate that the Winter Season is not far. Yet, this does not mean that Cyclonic Season is over, as this is the transition period. IKOLA may be in formation and Rainy days will also continue. Keep watch. 

 

P.KANHYE.                                         UPDATED SUNDAY 15 MARCH 2015.

Read moreGLENDA 10th Cyclone of Season 2014-2015 for South Indian Ocean;

                 FUNDI CYCLONE (92 S INVEST)-9TH OF SEASON 2014-2015 FOR SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN

                 EUNICE Very Intense Tropical Cyclone-8th of Season 2014-2015 for South Indian Ocean;

                 Diamondra Cyclone-7th for Summer Season 2014-2015 of the South Indian Ocean;

                 CHEDZA Moderate Tropical Storm-6th Weather System of Season 2014-2015;

                 BANSI VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE-FIRST PHENOMENON FOR SUMMER SEASON 2014-2015;

                 ADJALI FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE OF SEASON 2014-2015 FOR SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN;

                 CYCLONE NAMES FOR SEASON 2014-2015 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN and others. 

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Comments   

0 #2 Bakers 2015-03-17 16:01
I enjoy reading all your articles.
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0 #1 Nyle 2015-03-14 17:00
Very good! You are an inspiring writer. Thanks!
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