Sunday, 22 April 2018

 

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL DAY 23 MARCH 2018 ‘Weather-Ready, Climate-Smart’

Watch Video-Thunderbolts Without Rain and Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017.

Watch Video-Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritiu, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

Watch ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017) South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

Watch MMS LIVE 

 

 

 Watch CARLOS Tropical Cyclne (04-07) February 2017-South-West Indian Ocean, another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 Watch DINEO- Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

 

  

Watch Video-FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS Formations- January 2017.

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

 Watch LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 September 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew Producing Dangerous Rainfall'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

  Watch LIVE from UN 71st SessionSpeech of Sir Anerod JugnauthPrime Minister of Mauritius.

 

 

  Watch VIDEO: SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atlantic Ocean to South-East Indian Ocean-01 September 2016.. 

 

 

 

 Watch VIDEO: THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 Watch VIDEO on BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016 Mission in Mauritius.

 Watch part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 Watch animation of CYCLONE FANTALA Live with NOAA.

 

 

Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN 10-13 February 2016:South-West Indian Ocean

 

Watch WMO Video 23 MarchWorld Meteorological Day 2016

 

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

Watch Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

Watch Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

 

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Nepal Flood Warning, India under Extreme Rain,

China experiencing Deadly Earthquakes, Japan postponing Satellite Launch and Mauritius under Strong Wind Warning

(See Update below)

Natural Hazards cannot be controlled, yet they can be Forecasted and their impacts mitigated, except in extreme conditions. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology of Nepal has issued a series of Warning, as from 08 August 2017, related to the prevailing Asian South-West Monsoon System. The India Meteorological Department too has released its various Heavy-to-Extreme Rainfall Warnings, since 08 August 2017. The provinces of Xinjian and Sichuan-Gansu have witnessed the death of about 20 persons and the displacement of more than 60,000 after two main earthquakes on 09 August 2017,(as per media reports).

The Mauritius Meteorological Services has published, on 10 August 2017, a Strong Wind Warning because of the prevailing Anti-Cyclone. Despite being in Winter Season, a Low Pressure System is forming and evolving in the South-West of Diego Garcia.

Uploaded: 11.30 pm Thursday 10 August 2017 from KATHMANDU, NEPAL. 

The Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) is located at Nagpokhri Marg (Road), Kathmandu, Nepal. Its Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) division has released the Flood Warning for week 08-14 August 2017, as from 05 August, starting from Medium to Low Risk probabilities.

Given, that the mountainous topography of Nepal, floods related to Rains and outbursts of rivers and water courses cause Disasters for all of the 30m population and everything found along the flow tracks. This section of DHM appears to have the most challenging routine job. Despite the unavailability of a proper Satellite service, the Forecasters devote to Weather Prediction in a dynamical way. Nevertheless, they rely also on the Meteorological Forecasting Division (MFD) located at the Tribhuvan International Airport, Kathmandu. They work out the Forecasts and apply their wide experience thereon. 

Click the picture on the right and watch the Animation.

http://hydrology.gov.np/new/bull3/index.php/hydrology/screen_display

http://hydrology.gov.np/new/bull3/index.php/hydrology/rainfall_watch 

   

Dr. Rishi Ram Sharma, the Director General of DHM mentioned during my meetings that 3 Meteorological Radars are In the pipeline. The government of Nepal has not yet invested on any Satellite, except one for communication purposes.  However, 2.3 million mobile telephone users, out of the population of 30m, are accessible as far as Alerts are concerned.

It is noteworthy to say that this issue of Meteorological Satellite is very serious or else the Policy Makers and the related/allied Institutions will not be able to Build Disaster Resilience as entrenched in the Mission Statements of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and also of those of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). A solution has been suggested (on my behalf) towards the India Meteorological Department (IMD) which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of this zone. Besides, Nepal forms part of this RSMC and Climate/Weather and Seismic related Hazards are of the same parameters and nature. It is with close cooperation that Prevention of Loss-of-Life and Mitigation of Socio-Economic losses can be achieved. Moreover, the Safety and Protection of the population and finally Sustainable Development can be assured.

The update issued by Numerical Weather Prediction mentions about low impacts of the Rainfalls so far. But, the latest update is quite alarming. Refer to Alert animation above.  

The Weather Bulletin issued at 8.45 am on 11 August 2017 is mainly as follows:

<<Mostly cloudy throughout the country. Light to moderate rain likely to occur at many places in the country, chances of heavy rainfall at one or two places of the eastern and central regions.>>

The minimum Temperature for the last 24 hours is 17-26.20 Celsius, the maximum varies between 21.8 and 350 Celsius. Humidity is 63-77% and the Rainfall recorded varies between 19 and 89 mm, while many regions have been showered by some traces. 

 

The Nepal Centre for Disaster Management (NCDM) has no ‘respond-and-rescue’ operations which have been activated so far. However, rivers and flooded roads are shown to be dangerous for those who try to venture therein. In addition, a media report announced the death of  66 persons. This is subject to verification.

  

Monsoon phasing out in Nepal is expected from September until first week of October.

 Click here to Watch Weather live.

 

Remarks and Suggestions

It is very important that the Policy Makers adapt and implement all the different International Protocols and Conventions to which Nepal has adhered. Resources like Satellite and Radar services, qualified and experienced scientists, forecasters and skilful resource persons should be, presumably, employed/utilized for the fulfilment of Safety and Protection of the population. Thus, the Early Warning Systems (EWS) will become more dynamical and reliable. In other words, ‘Country-Driven Mechanisms’ should be mobilized and targeted towards ‘People-Centred Targets’. 

One interesting feature noticed during this fortnight is that Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) are already being applied in the Agricultural and Farming activities in Nepal. Besides, this country is mostly an agrarian economy. However, Observation of CLOUDS from the Ground in view of forecasting Cyclones, Floods, Droughts, are not being adopted.

Another queer fact is that Nepal is not under permanent threat by Cyclones. The last, but most awful one, was the passage of Cyclone HUDHUD (07-14 October 2014).

NASA EO states: Farther inland, the amounts of (RAIN) are lower, generally on the order of 50 to 100 mm (~2 to 4 inches, blue); however, as the remnants of Hudhud continue to track closer to the foothills of the Himalayas, the surge of moisture associated with Hudhud is acting to reinvigorate the monsoon and has started to bring heavy rains to parts of Nepal and northern India… Cyclone Hudhud made landfall in eastern India and moved over the Himalayas dropping snowfall in Nepal and southwestern China. 

Verify here: https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/hudhud-northern-indian-ocean/ 

NB: Nine tourists, including one local person, lost their life in the Snowfall.

Moreover, the previous cyclone was experienced in Nepal in the 1980s. 

Yet, according to one contact person, Snowfalls and Avalanches are Predictable by some Indigenous people. Many Spiritual Guides of the country are capable of using this resource in the absence of Satellites/Radars. It should be noted that the population of Nepal are very religious minded, whose traditions and customs are more or less preserved. Given, that the tourist industry is flourishing considerably, Scientific and TILK/P should be used as complementary components for the Forecasting of Natural Hazards.

 Regional Cooperation

Nepal and India share the same geophysical structure. It is known that the Subcontinent of India moved, 45-60 billion years ago, from the South-West Indian Ocean, that is, from the place where Mauritius is found. Its collision with the land mass of Continental Asia and the eventual impact caused the formation of the Himalayas. Nepal located at the foot of the Himalayan Mountain Ranges is found above the Indo-Australian Tectonic Plate Boundary with Continental Asia. So, the hilly and mountainous landscape is a result of that Tectonic Movement. 

The Disastrous Earthquake of Magnitude 7.8 of 24 April 2015 cannot be forgotten, as it caused humanitarian crisis in Nepal. About 9,000 people were estimated to be dead and more than 25,000 others were injured. Widespread damage and destruction occurred, including other zones like India, China and Bangladesh. In all, six million people were affected, as indicated by USAID report. World-wide assistance and funding were required. (The government of Mauritius and my personal donations were also provided.)

 Besides, Nepal and India have common links with the atmospheric conditions, human settlement, religious, spiritual, cultural and linguistic values, historical kingship and colonial rules. It is therefore conclusive that Nepal and India should cooperate and revive/consolidate mutual relationship at all levels, especially in scientific sectors. Besides, India is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) in which Nepal is one of the eight member states as defined by WMO.   

Nepal Media and Early Warning Systems

It is very regrettable to note that the Media-radio/television/newspapers of Nepal are not fulfilling their role as Multi-Sectoral Stakeholder in the Frame Work for Action, as specified in the UNISDR and WMO. Trying to meet these media is very complicated and negative as result. After sending an email to the National Nepal Television station of Singha Durbar, Kathmandu on Tuesday 08 August 2017, I went to meet the Director on the following day. My aim was to talk/sensitize about the Early Warning Systems and about the Flood Warning Forecasted by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM). Unfortunately, I was not allowed to enter the NTv, because my name was not in the list where entry pass is given. A policeman tried to help, but it was in vain. The result was still negative despite several telephone calls to NTV. 

Entertainment, Entertainment and Entertainment seems to predominate instead of dissemination of Awareness, Preparedness and Mitigation and Warnings at Real-Time.

The private station- Himshikar Television of Damak, Nepal did not reply at all after my email of 09 August 2017.

Disaster Preparedness Network Nepal (DPNetN) did not reply to my request for a meeting to discuss Disaster Resilience, since 09 August 2017.

All these prove that Disaster Resilience is not perfectly activated by related institutions. The DHM/NWP/MFD are devoting to their hard work, but other stakeholders are not fulfilling their role as required by UNISDR/WMO. So Safety and Protection of the population in many such countries are not perfect.  

Verify with NASA Imerg- https://pmm.nasa.gov/extreme-weather/deadly-southern-asia-flooding-rainfall-measured-nasas-imerg

 

Refer to the CLOUDS as Observed from the Ground of Nepal which have been indicating the oncoming Rainfalls.

 

    

Nepal environment as seen from the Ground.

   

    

     

It is practically inacceptable that the Policy Makers, Heads of Public Insitutions, Advisors and Professionals do carry out Urbanization and/or Infrastructural Development by neglecting the Drainage Systems. The inexistence of such sustainable development is a major cause for flooding, loss of life and damage/destruction of material assets both for the population and for the government. All the roads of Nepal are coated by a ‘thick-whittish-powdery’ dust. That is why a high percentage of drivers, pedestrians, motorists, police officers, tourists and others make use of breathing masks. All these prove that health, sanitation and cleanliness of the environment are very serious issues.

After the roads are wet by rains, that dust turns into a ‘paste of butter’ causing lots of inconveniences to every one. In addition, water born diseases like Malaria, Chikkungunia, Hepatitis, Dengue, Diarhea, etc. originate from such filthy sources. Moreover, the invasion of stray dogs are complicating sanitation and health Hazards like Dengue.

The landlocked ground of Nepal surely contains (whitish) limestones and granite stones, including other minerals (precious?). The government should sacrifice some or part of some hills whose materials can be used for road and other construction purposes.

The Policy Makers, Public Insitutions and Advisors/Professionals should learn the a, b, c ,d of Drainage Systems from the professionals of the Ancient Civilizations like the Mohenjo Daro and Harrapa; absorption pits, boreholes, canals, drains/drainage systems. Lack of proper planning, triggers accidents, economic losses and outbreak of diseases. Vertical intergration and macro-economic investments should be also earmarked for the general public who strive a lot to sustain their livelyhood. See the picture of the skinny horses pulling painfully loads of cargo and passengers in the muddy, flooded and broken roads under the whip of the coachman. It is a very sad image. Besides, this also shows ill-treatment and cruelty of animals who contibute a lot for the economic development of this country. India is also in the same situations. 

Roads are not meant to be used only by those who possess vehicles, but by every citizen. Road markings, road signs and traffic lights already fulfil half of the Law and Order problem at the public level. So, a socialist approach is better than the capitalistic one. This is one of the ways towards Sustainable Development and for a better Wealth of the Nation. 

Oceans, rivers, lakes, mountains, desserts, forests and space were considered, in prehistoric times, as frontiers dividing human interactions. Today, this concept has vanished because these constitute linkages and bridges of communication. Therefore, the road bordering India- Bihar and Nepal-Birganj, should be given priority, just like the narrow and dangerous roads along the mountains. Investing in these is very important. Tourism, trade, farming and sport activities are large sources of national income. Besides, Safety and Security will also be safeguarded.

India

India Meteorological Department issued its Rain Warning for almost all the regions, except the West as from 08 August 2017. Heavy-to-Extreme Rainfalls are forecast mainly for the North, North-East zones. Refer to the IMD picture. 

In its Highlights of the past week IMD released the following:

<<The monsoon trough was close to foothills of Himalayas or north of its normal position during the week.

Heavy to very heavy rain with extremely heavy falls (≥20 cm) at isolated places occurred Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh on one or or two days during 2nd half of the week.>>

However, the Long Period Average Rainfall for the whole India is -29% that is from normal 63.8 mm to 45.5 mm.

 Check it out here: http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/press_release_view.php?ff=20170810_pr_125

Latest information from Indian Media show that Bihar, Assam, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal are under Floods. About 4 are reported dead. A bus is reported to have fallen in a ditch in which many are feared to have died, after being struck by landslide. The response and rescue operations are being activated by the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) with additional support by the Army. 30 Trains have ceased moving and highways closed for security purposes. Some sources say that it is the Worst Flood in 30 years. Tens of thousands of the population are affected and displaced. One media stated that people in Bihar were not aware of the oncoming Floods. Watch Videos on 

China 

China has been experiencing, since 08 August 2017, a series of Earthquakes mainly of Magnitude 6.1 at the depth of 10 km in Sichuan-Gasu. Another one occurred in Northern Xinjiang of Mag. 6.3 and of 10 km in depth.

About 20 persons have lost their life and the displacement of more than 60,000 persons have been recorded, as informed by the local media.

In addition China is also under Rains. Today a ‘Very hot Warning’ reaching 330 Celsius has been released. 

Japan

Japan was under the stress of Typhoon NORU, which is the 4th longest prevailing Weather System for 18 days. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) scheduled, for 12 August 2017, the launching of Geostationary Orbit Satellite MICHIBIKI No. 3, Quasi-Zenith Satellite System. It has been postponed on 09 August. The reason is attributed to bad Weather Conditions, no doubt, caused by the remnants of NORU. Nevertheless, the launching has been cancelled, today 12 August “due to the necessity of additional examinations around rocket propulsion system.

 Mauritius 

The South Indian Ocean gave birth, since 08 August 2017, to a Low Pressure System of 1007/8 Hpa near the East South-East of Diego Garcia. It was identified by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), named as 90S INVEST and issued its Advisories:

 { ABIO10 PGTW 091800:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED

NEAR 9.4S 87.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 84.0E, APPROXIMATELY 726

NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY AND A 091306Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ..

THE UPPER- LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND 15-20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM IN A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND INDICATES STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.}

The Mauritius Meteorological Services published a ‘Strong Wind Warning’ on 10 August 2017 valid for 12 August, given the approach of a Strong Anti-Cyclone from the South Pole. The expected wind force is
“Wind South-Easterly 35 to 45 km/h with gusts reaching of 90 km/h in exposed areas.”

95 S INVEST has dissipated by the combined effect of the Atmospheric Pressure of 1022 Hpa around it and of the Strong Wind from the Anti-Cyclone of the South Pole.

Keep Watch for more.  

PKANHYE.  Updated 2.10 pm Sunday 13 August 2017- NEPAL.

 

Follow me on  &Videos.

Read more: Central India-Heavy Rains and Cyclonic System Approaching.;

                                 MORA Severe Cyclonic Storm-Phenomenal, Churning Monsoon Rains and Early Warning Systems- Not Perfect;

                                  Tropical Disturbance Trapped in the South-West Monsoon System. MORA Cyclonic Storm finally named.;

                                  MONSOON INDIA 2017-Earlier and WINTER 2017 Southern Indian Ocean Earlier and others. 

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