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Mauritius, Myanmar and China-May 2008.


   ‘Time and Tide wait for no man’. This saying urges me, as a Freelance Researcher in Social and Natural Sciences to shed some light on the recent calamitous events that have struck Mauritius, Myanmar and China. My collection of information, which is based on my Traditional Knowledge and updated Scientific Data, differ and is more enhanced than the media and the concerned authorities have. The images and information released by the TV 5, TF 1, BBC, etc. and repeated by the local MBC and others, represent only a small fraction of the facts and appears also manipulated. They are also obsolete and the post- mortem hazard assessments are not dynamic, especially during the first three days. Moreover, all these three events are more or less directly linked to the atmospheric systems and to the geological position of Mauritius. That is why I say that the natural hazards in question are of Predictable nature.

   The THUNDERBOLTS that manifested in the Mauritian territory since evening of Tuesday 13th March until Wednesday have been ‘banalisé’ or explained and considered very lightly both by the Meteorological Services and by the media (MBC). What I can say is that the people in Mauritius have luckily escaped from ominous disasters, namely from flooding, more or less, similar to that of March 26, 2008, from electrocution and landslides followed by an eventual trail of hazards.

   Let me explain this. Please refer to the mail I sent, on 31/01/2008, to Mr. S. BOODHOO, Director of Meteorological Services. The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), as you know is a ‘band of near-perpetual thunderstorms that shifts North and South of the Equator with the seasons, moves South during the Southern Hemisphere Summer.’ So, this atmospheric system decides on the weather that prevails in Mauritius and the region.

   The MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) is another similar system that is responsible for the formation of the Thunderbolt Storms along the same track. This is a recently discovered atmospheric system and is not so far mentioned and/or explained by the Meteorological Services of Mauritius. It operates like the ENSO in the Pacific Ocean by causing ‘a 30 to 60 day fluctuation in atmospheric winds, pressure and rainfall that originates over the Indian Ocean.’ As a result, it is capable to ‘significantly affect Asian Monsoon rainfalls but also affect weather on the US West Coast, formation of hurricanes in tropical Atlantic and the onset of El Nino events.’ This is what Scientists say and in addition they are trying to enhance their knowledge on the role of the Indian Ocean in the world climate system, as ‘it is the least understood of the tree tropical oceans.’  

    The MJO operates naturally between Latitude 0 deg,- Equator and Latitude 20 deg.-Tropic of Capricorn. This Oscillation carries carbon dioxide, heat, humidity, water vapour (accumulated from the Equator), including probable pollution, bacteria and viruses. It ‘is a large, slow-moving area of enhanced thunderstorm activity that moves from West Indian Ocean up to the Pacific Ocean.’ as explained by the NASA Satellite image and description I received on January 30, 2008. It means that this system originates from the Southern part of Africa, through Madagascar, Northern part of Mauritius until South East Asia. It is this phenomenon, amongst others, that caused calamitous flooding in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe in January 2008. 

   My explanation of the Thunderbolts of May 13-14 originates from this pattern. The residual energy, along the ITCZ/MJO track, left by the formation, evolution and intensification of disastrous cyclone Nargis that struck Myanmar (Burma) on May 02, 2008, appears to be a plausible explanation of the Thunderbolts in Mauritius during 13th and 14th May. My observation coupled with my Traditional Knowledge, say that a depression started forming at very high altitude since Wednesday 7 May, between Latitudes 10 deg. and 20 deg. and Longitudes 40 deg. and 60 deg.; in other words, around North of Madagascar. This depression, being the last of our cyclonic season- Oct. 2007 to April 2008, moved slowly. Given, that the Planet Earth has changed axis since early April, thus entering the Southern Winter Solstice, caused the blowing of the Malgache Wind on early morning of Monday 12th May. You know well that we always receive this Wind system during winter in Mauritius. Now, the South East Trade Wind, which blows during Summer, changed direction to North Easterly, perhaps because of a transitory effect- from Summer to Winter. The combination of these 2 wind systems caused the Thunderstorm activity to move over Mauritius. The depression being low, it accumulated the hot air and the cloud masses merged and caused precipitations, thunder and lightning- ‘tempête electrique’ since the evening of Tuesday 13th March.

     Another important factor causing this Thunderstorm activity, is the cold atmosphere prevailing in the Southern Hemisphere- South Pole. You must note that the Antarctic Continent has already moved to its usual winter season since the beginning of April. That is why, almost all the Researchers and Scientists (more than 7 dozen & whose preliminary findings I am currently receiving), who have gone there, since February and March this year, have left the South Pole. Now, when the depression carrying hot air under pressure and moving in a clock wise direction came into contact with the cold Antarctic wind blowing anti-clock wise, occasioned the falling of hailstones in the Central Plateau of Mauritius on Wednesday. The thrusting has been the same shaft motion as that of March in Bel Air as explained in my mail sent to Mr. BOODHOO on March 17, in which I also mentioned that falling of hailstones will repeat.

    Furthermore, I have predicted, in my document ‘Prediction 2007 to 2012’, that this Madden-Julian Oscillation will, within 2 years ( by 2010), intersect or fuse with another oscillation system that is causing severe desertification, drought and flood in Australia. As forecasted, ‘this is likely to happen in the South Eastern Zone of the Indian Ocean. As a consequence, severe heat, droughts and abrupt rain floods, acid rains including diseases, will manifest themselves in Mauritius during summer. During winter chilling cold, snowflakes, hails, invasion by icebergs and sudden sea rise will strike by surprise- a direct impact from the disintegrating Antarctica.I do not associate, for the time being, this scenario regarding the events of 13-14 May in Mauritius.

   However, I lay utmost stress on the way the Meteorological Services (MS) explained, interpreted, informed and managed this issue. While replying to a question of the MBC reporter, a representative of the Meteo said that this system ‘fine formé localement’, i.e. ‘it formed locally’. He failed to explain that the ITCZ and MJO are the origins of thunderbolts in a ‘near perpetual’ way, as explained above. It means that Thunderbolts always occur in the vast Indian Ocean, but is much more commonly known by those traveling in ships or airplanes. Such a feedback by the MS to the public is very vague, unprofessional, unscientific and irresponsible. The MS failed to give Flash News on the matter on Tuesday evening. The MS may have warned the public on Wednesday morning. But it failed to foresee the hazards moving under our nose. Simple explanation was given regarding the formation of hailstones. However, the Director failed, in conformity with the spirit of Early Warning Systems Protocols, to warn, educate and sensitize the public that hailstones may kill and injure people and damage property as experienced by Indians, Chinese and some Europeans. The term ‘hailstone’ is derived from the word ‘stone’ which implies a hard object that may be very small or huge, but is capable of causing harm when wrongly used. All explanations should go beyond possibilities because our citizens are ‘innocent and/or ignorant.’ Once more, just like March 26, bureaucracy and sophisticated equipment misled the security of all everyone.


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