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World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

 ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

      Watch MMS LIVE

 

 

 

 

CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017- S-W Indian Ocean,

another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 

DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

 

 

 

FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

 

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

 

LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

 

 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

 

 

 

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

   Mission in Mauritius.

 

 

Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 

 

Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

      Live with NOAA.

 

 

 

 

 

Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean

 

 

 

 

WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016

 

 

  

 

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

 

  

 

 Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

 

 

 

 Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

  

 

 

 

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ELIAKIM (99S INVEST) Approaching Speedily

Followed by another FLOOD STORM 

To mark 50th Anniversary of Mauritian Independence. 

Another 100% Perfect Prediction

(See Updates below) 

  

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for the Southern Indian Ocean continues to prevail dynamically with a different pattern than previous years. AVA (03-07 January 2018) and BERGUITTA (13-17 January 2018) Tropical Cyclones took birth in Central-Southern Indian Ocean. Contrarily, the Eastern Zone saw IRVIN (06-10 January 2018) escaping from Australia, in the Eastern Area, followed by CEBILE (28 January-06 February 2018). The 5th Cyclone DUMAZILE (03-08 March 2018) triggering Precipitations evolved as from North-East of Madagascar. ELIAKIM and another FLOOD STORM seem to start from the same spot of Central Southern Ocean. These Systems seem to visit Mauritius which is celebrating her 50th Independence Anniversary on 12 March 2018.

 Uploaded: 10.55 pm FRIDAY 09 MARCH 2018.

     

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

JTWC Advisories on 10 March 2018 are as follows:

{{{ ABIO10 PGTW 100200

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.2S 73.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 67.6E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MID LEVEL ROTATION WITH WEAK, DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS INHIBITING SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE WARM (
28-29 CELSIUS) AND ARE CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM AND ARE NOW INDICATING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 
73.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 75.5E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA...

THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE EAST, REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. }}}

 

NB: During interaction with JTWC, Scientist P.HOAREAU was informed on 09 March, that the Atmospheric Conditions around Mauritius are conducive for development of another Cyclone followed by a Flood Storm, just like DUMALIZE Tropical Cyclone. So, 'ELIAKIM' is already in the pipeline, as shown in the photo taken from the Ground of Mauritius on Thursday 08 March 2018.

     

Uploaded: 11.21 am SATURDAY 10 MARCH 2018. 

Local Atmospheric Conditions indicate that 99S INVEST has matured to be baptized, by, Météo -Madagascar, as Moderate Tropical Storm ELIAKIM. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) states that Storm strength to 64km is expected shortly. Its latest Advisories are as mentioned below. 

{{{ABIO10 PGTW 140330

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED

NEAR 12.2S 56.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 55.7E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 140024Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING IN TO A COHESIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM ALL SIDES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) OVER 99S WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF MADAGASCAR...

GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 99S REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH (34 KTS) IN 12-24 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE JGSM DEVELOPING IT MUCH LATER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD NEAR TERM AGREEMENT AS 99S TRACKS SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR...

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.}}}

 

 

Mauritius Meteorological Services

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has not so far been mentioning about the Low Pressure and of Tropical Disturbance (99S INVEST) in its regular Weather Bulletin. However, the Bulletin issued today Wednesday 14 March 2018, mentions Tropical Depression, when the Wind Force has reached 28-33 knots (51-61 km). See below.

[[[Forecast Bulletin – Mauritius

WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 11H05 THIS WEDNESDAY 14 MARCH 2018. 

GENERAL SITUATION:

(A) Clouds in the easterly flux are influencing the local weather.

(B) The combined effect of a tropical depression far almost to the north of the island and the anti-cyclone to the south of the Mascarenes is causing a windy weather over our area.

FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS:

Rather cloudy with passing showers more frequent over the high grounds. 

The maximum temperature will be 25 to 27 degrees Celsius over the Central Plateau and 29 to 32 degrees Celsius along the coasts. 

Passing showers will persist tonight. 

The minimum temperature will be 21 to 23 degrees Celsius over the Central Plateau and 25 to 27 degrees Celsius elsewhere. 

Wind Easterly 35 to 40 km/h, with peaks of 80 km/h. 

Sea rough beyond the reefs. Ventures in the open seas are not advised. 

Useful advice:
The public is advised to be cautious on the roads because of cross winds and during maneuvers on tall structures.
]]]

 

Météo–Madagascar

Météo–Madagascar has mentioned about Cyclogenesis abou 830 km of Madagascar and intensification is expected within 3 days’ time. However, the East of Madagascar is on ‘Green Alert’ since 13 March 2018. Refer to the Bulletin released on Wednesday 14 March 2018, as below

 [[[Alerte établie ce Mercredi 14-03-2018 

Cyclogenèse en cours à environ 830 Km au large d'Antalaha

Intensification prévue pour les 03 prochains jours

Risque d'impact sur SAVA vers Vendredi 16 Mars 2018

Alerte Verte en vigueur à compter de ce jour (Cf. Carte)
]]]   

 PKANHYE. Updated: 12.12 pm WEDNESDAY 14 MARCH 2018.

 

Local Atmospheric Conditions indicate that 99S INVEST has matured to be baptized, by Météo -Madagascar, as 'Moderate Tropical Storm ELIAKIM'Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) states that Storm strength to 64km is expected shortly. Its latest Advisories are as mentioned above.

 

Météo–Madagascar (MM) has named 99S INVEST as Moderate Tropical Storm ELIAKIM on Thursday 15 March 2018. There is a general concensus among MM, JTWC and Météo-France-Réunion (MFR) that ELIAKIM is Tracking towards North-East and Central Madagascar in the following 5-7 days. So, the Impacts are Predicted to be more Disastrous in terms of WAVES, WINDS and RAINS as compared to AVA and DUMAZILE. Humanitarian Crisis is forecast to be on the High-Side. Therefore, all Stakeholders are Solemnly Requested to start incessantly all Response, Rescue and Mitigation Mechanisms for offering Safety and Protection of the population of Madagascar.

The Cyclone Alert issued by Météo-Madagascar is as follows:

[[[ Alerte établie ce Jeudi 15-03-2018. 

Tempête Tropicale Modérée ELIAKIM à environ 460 Km à l'Est d'Antalaha

Intensification prévue avant son impact à 73 Km au Sud d'Antalaha.

Alerte Jaune pour DIANA, SAVA, SOFIA, ANALANJIROFO, ATSINANANA, ALAOTRA MANGORO.

Alerte Verte : BOENY, ANALAMANGA, V7V, Maevantanana et Kandreho (Cf. Carte). ]]]

  

Watch Video Live Météo-Madagascar.

 

 UPDATED: 12.48 pm THURSDAY 15 MARCH 2018.

 

Météo-France-Réunion

Météo-France-Réunion (MFR) which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) has release its Advisories since 14 March 2018. Mention has been made as to the Rapid Intensification of (99S INVEST) or 7/20172018. Almost the same Forecasts were mentioned until 15 March 2018. See below.

[[[WTIO31 FMEE 150626  

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/7/20172018

1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELIAKIM)

1.B PREVISIONS:

12H: 15/03/2018 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE…

24H: 16/03/2018 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE…

36H: 16/03/2018 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE…

48H: 17/03/2018 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE…

60H: 17/03/2018 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE…

72H: 18/03/2018 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 19/03/2018 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE…

120H: 20/03/2018 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE. ]]] 

NB: Mauritius is under the influence of intermittent Rains and of Strong Winds impacted by the combination of ELIAKIM and of the Robust Anti-Cyclone (Antarctic Circumpolar Current). The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) issued aStrong-Wind-Warnning’on 15 March 2018. Gusts reaching 86 km/h have thus been recorded. ELIAKIM is located at 15.60 South and 50.40 East; that is 890 km North-West of Mauritius.

Reunion Island is under ‘Vigilance Orange'-HIGH WAVESalthough ELIAKIM is 790 km North-West of the Island.

 

ELIAKIM Severe Tropical Storm is likely to make landfall in North-East of Madagascar this afternoon of Friday 16 March 2018. The Warning has been issued by Météo-Madagascar as follows:

 

[[[ Alerte établie ce Vendredi 16-03-2018   

 

Forte Tempête Tropicale ELIAKIM à environ 100 Km à l'Est de Mananara Avaratra.


Atterrissage attendu dans les prochaines heures sur ANALANJIROFO.

Alerte Rouge : SAVA, Bealalana, Befandriana Nord, Mandritsara, ANALANJIROFO, ATSINANANA, ALAOTRA

Alerte Jaune : DIANA, Analalava, Antsohihy, Mampikony, Boriziny, Tsaratanana, MANGORO et V7V.

Alerte Verte : BOENY, ANALAMANGA, Maevantanana ary Kandreho.]]]  

                                Watch Live 

Updated: 3.32 pm FRIDAY 16 MARCH 2018.

 

[[[Alerte établie ce Samedi 17-03-2018

Forte Tempête Tropicale ELIAKIM positionée dans la Baie d'Antogil à 17 heures.

Atterrissage attendu dans les prochaines heures sur Maroantsetra.

Alerte Rouge: SAVA, Bealalana, Befandriana Nord, Mandritsara, ANALANJIROFO, ATSINANANA, ALAOTRA MANGORO

Alerte Jaune: DIANA, Analalava, Antsohihy, Mampikony, Boriziny, Tsaratanana, ANALAMANGA et V7V.

Alerte Verte: BOENY, Kandreho, Maevantanana, BONGOLAVA, ITASY, VAKINAKARATRA, AMORON'I MANIA et MATSITRA AMBONY.
]]]

[[[ Alerte établie ce Dimanche 18-03-2018.

Tempête Tropicale ELIAKIM au large des côtes Est.

Alerte Rouge: VATOVAVY FITOVINANY

Alerte Bleue (Vigilance post-aléa) : Le reste (Cf. Carte d'alerte).
]]]

 

Tropical Cyclone ELIAKIM has made landfall in North-East and East of Madagascar as shown in the picture. Part of its Western Quadrant is still interacting with the landmass. ELIAKIM is on the point of moving in the open South Indian Ocean in a few hours. Further Intensification is forecast thereafter for some time and Weakening after a few more days. Such is the general consensus among JTWC, MFR and MM. Refer to the latest Advisories released by JTWC this morning.

NB: Some media have reported yesterday that many folks were no aware of the impeding Cyclone, although the sirens were activated. Unfortunately, a couple have lost their life after the collapse of their house. 

{{{TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 341 NM

WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE UNCHANGED NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS LARGELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER LAND...

TC ELIAKIM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH AU 48 UNDER PERSISTENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48INCREASING VWS COMBINED WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 14S WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AROUND TAU 48 AND THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72.}}}

 

Watch Live Video Météo-Madagascar. 

  Watch also the Impacts of ELIAKIM

CLICK to Watch WEATHER LIVE:

                            

   Awaiting 23 March 2018-World Meteorological Day

Keep Watch for updates.   

PKANHYE. Updated: 2.10 pm SUNDAY 18 MARCH 2018.                      

 

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