Wednesday, 23 May 2018

  Kilauea Hawaii

  Courtesy: USGS

 

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FLAMBOYAN (98S INVEST)-Near Cocos Island Very Rapid Development into

Tropical Cyclone named by Indonesia BMKG

After Phenomenal and Disastrous Severe Tropical Storm FAKIR (93S INVEST) and dissipation of 96S INVEST, another Tropical Disturbance 98 S INVEST is in the pipeline. Located in East of Southern Indian Ocean at Latitude 8.00 South and Longitude 94.60 East, it is evolving near Cocos Island. However, Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) whose Area of Responsibility is along Longitude 900 East to 1600 East has not mentioned any Tropical Disturbance so far. ABOM is also the Regional Special Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of this zone and is mandated to issue Advisories for the its Member States.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/?ref=ftr

Nevertheless, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has been identifying a Tropical Disturbance 98 S INVEST since Thursday 26 April 2018. As at today JTWC has upgraded the Weather System from Low to Medium and High. In its Advisories JTWC has mentioned “This system is expected to reach 35knots within the next 24hours and be numbered TC 21S by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

PKANHYE.    Uploaded: 12.12 pm SATURDAY 28 APRIL 2018.

 

The dynamic Advisories issued by JTWC are as follows:

{{{WTXS21 PGTW 280130

REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 96.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0S 94.6E, APPROXIMATELY 284 NM NORTH OF COCOS ISLAND...

ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 272117Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPRESSIVE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. THE VWS IS OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WHICH CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THETIMELINE FOR DEVELOPMENT IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GFS, NAVGEM, AND ECMWF PREDICTING EVELOPMENT IN 24 HOURS...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.}}}

 

NB: It seems very clearly that 98S INVEST is undergoing a very rapid development. If its position remains almost the same, then Australian Bureau of Meteorology must name the System. But, if it tracks near 900 East, then the Mauritius Meteorological Services should name it as GUAMBE Moderate Tropical Storm, as it will fall in its Area of Responsibility (AOR).

The MMS has not yet mentioned about the Tropical Disturbance or Depression inits Weather Bulletin of 11.40 am Saturday. But, mention has been made in the Cyclone/Storm page.

 

Uploaded: 12.12 am SATURDAY 28 APRIL 2018.

 

JTWC Advisories are as follows:

{{{WTXS31 PGTW 280900

TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

REMARKS:

280900Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 91.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1193 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COVERED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND A 280309Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS SPIRALING BANDS WRAPPING INTO DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PGTW 280600Z CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) FIX OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE KNES 280600Z FIX OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW…

ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES OF 27-28C ARE
CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, AFTER WHICH THE STR WILL RECEDE TO THE EAST, ALLOWING TC 21S TO TURN TO A MORE SOUTHWARD RECURVING TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 48, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 65 KNOTS

AFTER TAU 48, AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD, TC 21S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL BRING STRONG VWS, AND 21S WILL TRACK INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SSTS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48

THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY INSIDE OF AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS, PLACING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE EASTERN TRACKS THAT BETTER DEPICT RECURVATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 12 FEET.}}} 

 

Mauritius Meteorological Services

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS), as usual, mentions about Low Pressure and Tropical Depression not even of Tropical Disturbance in the Supplementary Information of its Weather Bulletin of 16.40 pm Saturday 28 April.

[[[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 16H40 THIS SATURDAY 28 APRIL 2018.

Supplementary Information:

A low pressure area which was evolving far to the East-South-East of Diego Garcia has intensified into a tropical depression.]]]

 

Bandan Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency

98S INVEST has been named, yesterday Saturday 28 April 2018, as Moderate Tropical Storm FLAMBOYAN by Bandan Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BKMG) of Indonesia. It is to be noted that the System was initially in the Area of Responsibility (AOR) of Indonesia, which is another RSMC, besides ABOM of this zone. Given, FLAMBOYAN tracked towards West South-West it left the boundary of Longitude 91.90 East and is now in the AOR of the Mauritius Meteorological Services, whose AOR is Longitude 900-550 East. The same name of the Cyclone will continue to be kept as it is, according to some conventions.

 Updated: 6.58 pm SUNDAY 29 APRIL 2018.

 

Météo-France-Réunion

Météo-France-Réunion, which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for South-West Indian Ocean, has been mentioning about cyclone genesis in that region. It released its Advisories since 28 April 2018. Cyclone FLAMBOYAN is evolving almost as forecast to track in open waters of Indian Ocean, showing a general consensus with JTWC and MMS. Besides, its track resembles CEBILE Tropical Cyclone (28 January-07 February 2018), but not in intensity. See below. 

 

<<< WTIO31 FMEE 281835

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/9/20172018

1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (FLAMBOYAN)... 

PREVISIONS:

12H: 29/04/2018 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

24H: 29/04/2018 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

36H: 30/04/2018 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

48H: 30/04/2018 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

60H: 01/05/2018 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

72H: 01/05/2018 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 02/05/2018 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

120H: 03/05/2018 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT.>>>

       

Updated: 11.24 pm MONDAY 30 APRIL 2018.

NASA

NASA Scientist mentions, on Tuesday 01 May 2018,  about the Rainfall rates falling from FLAMBOYAN Severe Tropical Storm, as scanned by GPM-Himawari-8:

“The GPM core observatory satellite had a good view of the rainfall in tropical cyclone FLAMBOYAN when it flew over on April 29, 2018 at 2226 UTC. The satellite's Microwave Imager (GMI) scanned the center of the tropical cyclone and found rain falling there at a rate of over 53 mm (2.1 inches) per hour. The satellite's Dual FrequencyPrecipitationRadar (DPR) missed FLAMBOYAN's center but showed that only light to moderate rainfall was occurring west of the tropical lone's center of circulation.

HTTPS://PMM.NASA.GOV/EXTREME-WEATHER/GPM-SATELLITE-VIEWS-TROPICAL-CYCLONE-FLAMBOYANS-RAINFALL 

Verify ANIMATION here- 

HTTPS://PMM.NASA.GOV/HIMAWARI-GPM_FADE_ANIMATED.GIF

 

http://metservice.intnet.mu/current-cyclone.php

Click here to Watch LIVE with MMS

Keep Watch and stay ALERT. 

 

PKANHYE.         Final Update: 6.45 pm SUNDAY 06 MAY 2018. 

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Read more: 

FAKIR 7th Cyclone NAMED Preceded by HEAVY RAINFALLS-CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 2 -WAIVED at 2.10 pm 24 April 2018,

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL DAY 23 MARCH 2018-Weather-Ready, Climate-Smart.,

ELIAKIM (99S INVEST) Approaching Speedily Followed by another FLOOD STORM Marking 50th Anniversary of Mauritian Independence,

DUMAZILE & FLOOD STORM -TWIN SYSTEMS In South-West Indian Ocean for Summer Season 2017-2018,

91S INVEST-ES-E of Diego Garcia- Intensifying soon as Cyclonic System-Named CEBILE Intense Tropical Cyclone,

Rodrigues- Predicted Heavy Rainfalls by 13 January 2018: 97S INVEST- (BERGUITTA named)- 100% Perfect PREDICTION,

IRVIN Tropical Cyclone named by Australia BOM-2nd Cyclone for South Indian Ocean 2017-2018,

AVA- First named Cyclone for Season 2017-2018 South Indian Ocean,

Weather and Cyclone Names for Summer Season 2017-2018 Southern Indian Ocean Basin, etc, etc. 

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