Dengue, AH1N1 and Sanitation in Mauritius (2009).




Thr’ Dr. A.H.Abdool.



       Re: Dengue, AH1N1 and Sanitation in Mauritius.

It is quite deplorable that you have not responded to my request dated July 1, 2009. However, as a PATRIOT and as a Responsible Citizen of this Republic, I prefer to forward my views instead for waiting for ‘la tisane’.



As far as DENGUE FEVER is concerned, we know that this is water borne disease. The mosquito vector Aedis (Stegomyia) originates from watery fluids which are contaminated by human and animal wastes, faeces or dead bodies or garbage. Ponds, lakes, rivers and marshes need not consist of a habitat for such vectors. I prefer to attribute the origin of DENGUE to all wastes found in micro and macro environments-houses yards, streets, public places, waste lands, dumping grounds, etc. You may recall that Mauritius was affected by a proliferation of crows, rats, cockroaches, etc. a few years ago. An eradication action taken by the authorities has proved to be successful. You must also bear in mind that there are lots of pests like stray dogs, wild cats and rats etc. in almost all regions, both in rural and countryside areas. These creatures do not have a precise habitat. So, they spread all their faeces, urine and wastes at any place-public and private. The question that we should ask is, how do they die and what happens to their dead bodies? It is clear that all these elements contribute to produce potential breeding habitat specially after a rainfall or from leaking and sipping water flows.


The recent rainfalls in Mauritius have created such environments capable of producing and of propagating DENGUE and other diseases. What we conclude is that DENGUE is also a land borne disease propagated by a precise vector-mosquito. Fogging campaign to fight DENGUE is one of the weapons in this battle. What I suggest is to collect all stray dogs, cats, etc. and their wastes from all streets, roads, drains, canals, markets, hospitals, slaughter houses, public and private yards, etc. Moreover, I have noticed that foggings have been carried out during windy evenings. This does not appear to be effective, as fumes escape rapidly towards the sky before attacking the flies and before giving the estimated result.

DENGUE FEVER is considered to be more prevalent in countries found in Asia-South East to Far East, with a dramatic increase of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) over the past 20 years. This indicates that less developed countries are likely to be victims of the proliferation which is combined with ecological disasters like floods, cyclones, and landslides. I consider Mauritius to be among the poor countries and therefore it falls in this category.



Another precious information that I am trying to share, regards the SWINE FLU- AH1N1. The sudden outbreak of this FLU in Mexico caused 60 deaths in the 4th week of April 2009. The WHO considered this as a Universal Pandemic after a few days, because the situation appeared to be the Warning System that was introduced in 2005 following the Avian Flu crisis. The WHO was forced to ring the alert from Phase 4 to 6 despite uncertainties of the evolution of the Virus. It is now clear that AH1N1 is a Global Pandemic, given the rapidity of its proliferation in almost all continents and islands.


It should be noted that our island was affected by SWINE FEVER a year and a half ago. A recent study that I have come across, invokes the possibility of SWINE FLU originating from SWINE FEVER. So, there is a possibility that the places where the infected pigs were bred and disposed of, may be an origin of the AH1N1. Obviously, such farms and graveyards demand constant observations and disinfection campaigns. SWINE FLU propagates from man to man. This virus also travels in the atmosphere. Recent information says that more than 154 countries have been visited by AH1N1. Besides, airports and sea ports, my observations guide me to say that this is more dynamic through atmospheric conditions. Coincidentally, while I am writing this document, I have learnt today, July 14 2009, that the latest research says that SWINE FLU attacks much more the respiratory system, contrary to what was known up to now. This latest research report in question appears to be rather timid. Let me clarify this with my views and findings.


What I want to explain is in line with what I predicted about DENGUE since 2006 in my document in which I have predicted and explained that ‘no calamitous cyclones will hit Mauritius between 2007 to 2012’. So far, this has been 100% true. This induces me to predict that AH1N1 has a network in the atmosphere and moves with Oscillations found on lands and oceans similar to the EL NINO and LA NINA phenomena.


Let me refer to the documents I submitted on March 28, 2008 to the FACT FINDING COMMITTEE (FFC) regarding the DEADLY FLOOD of MARCH 26, 2008. I mentioned, amongst lots of others, that an OSCILLATION is operating in the SOUTH WEST of AUSTRALIA which is causing desertification, droughts, forest fires and floods in this small continent. This OSCILLATION which is different from the existing Southern Oscillation is not yet named or is not seriously considered by the scientific world and is moving towards the SOUTH WESTERN zone of the Indian Ocean between Latitudes 22 to 30 degrees. Up to now, it has reached the SOUTH EASTERN region of the Indian Ocean and I have predicted since March 28, 2008, that this oscillation will fuse or intersect by June 2010, with the MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION around the SOUTH EAST zone of the Indian Ocean. The Satellite Imageries that I have received from JAXA-Japan on Jan.24, 2009 and that of NASA-USA on Feb. 10, 2009, both confirm my PREDICTIONS. Moreover, the China Meteorological Administration co-hosted with UN World Meteorological Organisation a conference between 16 to17 February 2009. Researchers have specified the considerable increase in heat waves that have affected East and South Australia, unprecedented in Australian history. Stress has been also laid that this phenomenon may last between 10 to 30 years.

The Poor Mauritius Meteorological Station is incapable of detecting what I can see.


The FFC has mentioned the miserable flaws of our local Meteo equipment “which they were ill-equipped to reliably do with their outdated radar”, paragraph 46, page 12. So, what I PREDICT is unchallengeable just like the deadly TSUNAMI of Dec. 26, 2004 which I predicted between March-April 2002, while I was conducting some surveys in Rodrigues. My ‘cheval de bataille’ has been PREPAREDNESS campaign since then. Moreover, I have PREDICTED lots of calamities that are likely to happen around mid- 2010 and for the future decade including a vector capable of disseminating HIV/AIDS, despite this sounds awkward to the language of Medicine.


In light of my observations and studies, I can now PREDICT that AH1N1 will invade massively during a period when RAIN, THUNDERBOLTS AND LIGHTNINGS will manifest themselves simultaneously around the Mascarenes. My PREDICTION is that this atmospheric phenomenon will likely prevail during July/August 2009, capable of causing floods. AH1N1 will spread in the NORTH, EAST and SOUTH EAST and in the CENTRAL PLATEAU of Mauritius. REUNION ISLAND has already experienced the coming of the VIRUS. But, they have not yet understood the way in which I am explaining. According to them, only 10 out of 70 or so cases have originated from travellers and their families.


RODRIGUES will be affected after Mauritius, because of its low lying topography. Agalega may not be affected.

The sequence of this invasion of AH1N1 will gradually move towards the SOUTHERN parts of AFRICA and MADAGASCAR by OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2009. The NETWORK of AH1N1 will be in populated areas, dumping grounds, landfills, garbage lorries, farms, slaughter houses, etc. as explained above, because these constitute potential habitats, breeding and transitions grounds.


The time and date are not so important, as there may be some fluctuation. But, the event is crucial. The Advisory Group of WMO has already recognised that “THE PANDEMIC IS UNSTOPABLE”. The first AH1N1 case in Mauritius was confirmed in early July preceded by Australia and in Reunion Island a week later. As at July 6, 2009, 94,500 cases have been reported including 429 deaths globally. The question of producing adequate vaccines against AH1N1 is another issue capable of ‘falling from the frying pan to the fire’. If you consider the probable situation of July/ August that I am PREDICTING, this ‘Cyber Island’ will be sandwiched by an upsurge of DENGUE, MALARIA, CHIKUNGUNIA, SEASONAL FLU, etc. from the land and by AH1N1 from the sky. Tamiflus, vaccines, masks, fungicides, etc. will they be adequately handy for the 1,267m souls? How far are you PREPARED?



The last item regards the SANITARY conditions in Mauritius. I can vigorously brainstorm by saying that the SANITARY CONDITIONS are UTTERLY HORRIBLE. There are lots of ‘laisser-faire’ at micro and macro levels. The relevant authorities are not applying the Provisions of the FOOD ACT. Diseases are contracted by communicable and non-communicable channels. It should not be ignored that the nose and the mouth are more direct transmissible means. What we breathe, eat and drink decide our health conditions.


What I have observed and witnessed, is that Fast Food caterers operate without due hygienic and sanitary measures prescribed by Law. Fast Food should be encouraged because it is an economic, cultural, folkloric, social and touristic operator and is propelled by a high mobility of population during their routine and professional work. Preparation of foods along streets, bus stations and polluted areas should be banned and/or strictly controlled. I have noticed that noodle meals are being held by bare hands, or served by sneezing people. The Food Act specifies that food should be handled by someone holding a medical certificate and who wears gloves, apron, etc. The entrepreneur concerned satisfies these criteria, but most of the time he/she is in the office or on the PC. The workers employed in such activities, do they possess the necessary certificates? I have witnessed such employees eating cakes and at the same time serving dhollpuri with bare hands. Such situations are rampant in all rural and countryside places, even inside and outside Champ de Mars. Besides, the overall Sanitary Conditions in Mauritius are in a very deplorable state.


Drains, canals, rivers, etc. that have been badly maintained, have caused undue deaths during flood, especially on March 26 last year. The FACT FINDING COMMITTEE’s report has blamed the authorities for wrong planning, engineering and construction works. These places also constitute breeding grounds for diseases. Whither are we cruising? Surely towards ‘une ile FRAGILE’ wherein development is sustainable with difficulty!


I hope that I am not ‘casting pearls before swine’. But my bits of information will rather ignite some light in addressing the issues mentioned. I also expect you to give considerable attention to them also in light of the Recommendations of the FFC Report at page 48 submitted by Justice Domah and his assessors regarding the role of a specialized Organism in view of mitigating the effects of disasters. He has also specified that an ear should be given to the civil society and to individuals, apart from scientists, consultants and researchers in order to maximise input and flow of information and of data. So, Policy Makers, authorities, and Public Servants should not stay stuck on bureaucracy, academics and scepticism. According to me AH1N1 should be seriously dealt not only within the parametres of Science and Technology. It should also be integrated in the context of the notorious and phenomenal concept CHANGING CLIMATE. DENGUE demands the same approach and treatment. You may conclude therefore, that the MINDSET DEMANDS A SERIOUS CHANGE both at micro and macro levels and this will eventually yield dynamism in treating the issues mentioned above.


Life is uncertain, death is sure.”…TIRRUKURRAL


Thank you for listening to me.


P.KANHYE.                                               16 JULY 2009.]]]


(First published in Old Website in 2013 and

 re-published in this New Website)

 PKANHYE.   2.20 pm SATURDAY 28 MARCH 2020.      

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