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SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

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Tropical Disturbance 99S INVEST Revived and

Dissipated in Mozambique Channel on 21 January 2018 

The Dynamics of Climate, Weather and Hydrology are crystal clear in Southern Indian Ocean during the Summer Season 2017-2018. A series of cyclones: AVA, IRVIN, BERGUITTA and a trail of Precipitations in Madagascar, Reunion, Comoros, Mayotte, Rodrigues and Mauritius have evolved since New Year 2018. All these Weather Events have caused lots of Disasters in the respective Islands.

On one hand, Intense Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA is cruising South-Westwards at a phenomenal speed of more than 31km/h (17 knots), as indicated by the last Advisories of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). It is now in the South of Madagascar transiting as an Extra-Tropical Cyclone, after influencing destructively Mauritius, Reunion and Rodrigues. On the other side, Tropical Disturbance ‘99S INVEST’ which Failed to intensify, since 15 January 2018, is taking a Re-birth in the Mozambique Channel. This is the ‘Hot Spot’of the South-West Indian Ocean Basin. There is some indication that Cyclogenesis is probable during the coming days.  

\/\/\WARNING OF INTENSE RAINS IN  THE PROVINCES OF CABO DELGADO,  NAMPULA, ZAMBÉZIA A PART OF  NIASSA

Due to the atmospheric instability that is felt in the above provinces, INAM forecasts the continuation of very strong rains, more than 75 millimeters in 24 hours, accompanied by severe thunderstorms and winds that can reach 60 kilometers per hour. The same system can make the love very agitated, generating waves that can reach the 4 meters of height, between the parallels 10 and 17 degrees South.\/\/\

 

Météo-France-Réunion

Météo-France-Réunion (MF-R) named 99S INVEST as 04-2017-2018. MF-R forecasted almost the same as JTWC by stating that the System is likely to cross Mozambique Channel, intensify for a short (12 hours-time) as Moderate Tropical Storm and Dissipate after making landfall in Madagascar. See Forecast Tracks below.

                        

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued its Advisories, early 20 January 2018, as mentioned below.

{{{ABIO10 PGTW 192130

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.4S 39.5E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR…

ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY AND A 191926Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ABOVE AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER…

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT WHEN 99S REACHES OPEN WATER…

GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION AS 99S TRACKS BACK OVER WATER, BUT ARE SPLIT ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF 99S DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER MADAGASCAR IN THE SHORT TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. }}}

 

Keep Watch for Updates.

Uploaded:    10.43hrs SATURDAY 20 JANUARY 2018.

 

Fortunately, 99S INVEST has, once more dissipated, as mentioned by JTWC today 21 January 2018. However, it is noteworthy to say that the Weather System brought Rains in Mozambique and Madagascar while zig-zagging since 12 January. In addition, it is also a vivid proof that the Summer Season 2017-2018 is marked more on Rainfalls than Cyclones, as stated in previous articles. Reunion Island broke its own World Record on Rainfalls of 690 mm in six hours, after 737.2 mm on 09 January 2018.

Moreover, it should be noted that the Peak of the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) is still ahead. Everyone has noticed that the South-West Indian Ocean Basin is experiencing Extreme Weather Conditions since Summer Season 2017-2018. So, each individual and every stakeholder in the Disaster Management institution is requested to Keep Watch, to Learn Lessons and to Adapt to the oncoming Weather Events.

{{{ ABIO10 PGTW 210500

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 43.4E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. }}} 

 

NB:Rodrigues Rainfalls since 13 January 2018 and BERGUITTA Track along East of Mauritius represent my two 100% Perfect Predictions for Summer Season 2017-2018. 

All the series of recent Weather Events have occurred because the Atmospheric Conditions in the South-West Indian Ocean are conducive as such.  The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), the South-East Trade Winds (SETW) and the very robust Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) are all Highly Active and are prevailing in an Enhanced Phase. It is a Phenomenal Zone wherein all these systems undergo an Atmospheric Fusion. As a result, they contribute for the occurrence of Extreme Weather Events take place.

Refer to article dated 20 December 2014: http://www.kanhye.com/9-climate-weather/58-fusion-of-atmospheric-systems-and-heavy-rainfalls-in-southern-indian-ocean-december-2014

Until more Keep Watch.

 PKANHYE.   Updated: 12.34 pm SUNDAY 21 JANUARY 2018. 

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Read more

99S INVEST (CEBILE Failed to Form) in Mozambique Channel;

BERGUITTA Intense Tropical Cyclone- Tracking Along East of Mauritius;

Rodrigues- Predicted Heavy Rainfalls by 13 January 2018: 97S INVEST- (BERGUITTA named)- 100% Perfect PREDICTION.;

AVA- First named Cyclone for Season 2017-2018 South Indian Ocean;

IRVIN Tropical Cyclone named by Australia BOM-2nd Cyclone for South Indian Ocean 2017-2018.;

96S INVEST- Named JOYCE by Australia Bureau of Meteorology & others. 

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