Monday, 23 April 2018

 

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL DAY 23 MARCH 2018 ‘Weather-Ready, Climate-Smart’

Watch Video-Thunderbolts Without Rain and Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017.

Watch Video-Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritiu, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

Watch ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017) South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

Watch MMS LIVE 

 

 

 Watch CARLOS Tropical Cyclne (04-07) February 2017-South-West Indian Ocean, another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 Watch DINEO- Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

 

  

Watch Video-FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS Formations- January 2017.

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

 Watch LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 September 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew Producing Dangerous Rainfall'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

  Watch LIVE from UN 71st SessionSpeech of Sir Anerod JugnauthPrime Minister of Mauritius.

 

 

  Watch VIDEO: SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atlantic Ocean to South-East Indian Ocean-01 September 2016.. 

 

 

 

 Watch VIDEO: THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 Watch VIDEO on BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016 Mission in Mauritius.

 Watch part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 Watch animation of CYCLONE FANTALA Live with NOAA.

 

 

Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN 10-13 February 2016:South-West Indian Ocean

 

Watch WMO Video 23 MarchWorld Meteorological Day 2016

 

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

Watch Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

Watch Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

 

CLICK HERE TO WATCH ALL VIDEOS 

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LIVE TO TELL 2016- 13 OCTOBER

INTERNATIONAL DAY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION

Year in year out, the international community, mainly, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) is striving since 1989 by sensitizing Policy Makers, Decision-Takers, Governmental Institutions, Private Sector, Non-Governmental Organizations, Media and other Stakeholders to foster a culture of Disaster Resilience for the Protection and Safety of their respective Population, in face of the Impacts of Calamities-Man-Made and Natural. The main focus of this year of 2016 is to encourage the implementation of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Unfortunately, the targets do not seem to be achieved by many countries-super developed, developing and less developed, all across the Blue Planet. (Be patient to read more)

 

IDDR 2016 states:

<<International Day for Disaster Reduction began in 1989, after a call by the United Nations General Assembly for a day to promote a global culture of risk-awareness and disaster reduction. Held every 13 October, the day celebrates how people and communities around the world are reducing their exposure to disasters and raising awareness about the importance of reining in the risks that they face. The 2016 edition marks the launch of the new "Sendai Seven" campaign, centred on the seven targets of the Sendai Framework, the first of which is reducing disaster mortality.>>

 

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (Japan in March 2015) is “‘people-focussed’ and ‘action-oriented’ in its approach to disaster risk reduction and applies to the risk of small-scale and large-scale disasters caused by man-made or natural hazards as well as related environmental, technological and biological hazards and risks”. See here

 

In its press release dated 11 July 2016, GENEVA The UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Disaster Risk Reduction, Mr. Robert Glasser, launched:

The Sendai Seven Campaign – 7 Targets, 7 Years”, an advocacy initiative to encourage implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction with the goal of saving lives, reducing disaster losses and improving management of disaster risk.

 Check here: http://www.un.org/en/events/disasterreductionday/

 

Mr. Glasser also said: “Despite many successes there are still far too many lives being lost in predictable events because of failures to deploy early warning systems, learn lessons from past events and to grasp the growing threat of climate change and its impact on extreme weather events including storms, floods and drought.”

 

In fact, according to UNISDR, ‘1.3 m died in disaster in last 20 years’. Mr. Glasser is absolutely right and the following is a small report on the situation in Mauritius to justify his apprehension. Watch video here.

 

Present and Past Policy Makers of Mauritius-and Disaster Resilience

 

According to the UNISDR Step Up Campaign, which started in 2011, each year was dedicated to a particular group of vulnerable people in face of disastersChildren and Youth (2011), Women and Girls (2012), People Living with Disabilities (2013), Older Persons (2014), and Indigenous People (2015).

 

Unfortunately, none of these themes have been marked or accomplished by the Policy Makers and institutions of Mauritius. Besides, there are lots of Loopholes left by the International Institutions, Policy Makers and most Stakeholders of various countries, in view of really building Disaster Resilience. One such vivid example is the theme of International Day for Disaster Reduction 2015- “KNOWLEDGE FOR LIFE” whose goal was-

Use International Day for Disaster Reduction, on 13 October 2015 to:

1. Raise awareness of the use of traditional, indigenous and local knowledge and practices, to complement scientific knowledge in disaster risk management;

2. Highlight approaches for engaging local communities and indigenous peoples in implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.’

There was simply a conference which was held, in a reputed hotel, on 13 October 2015 under the aegis of ex-Minister of Environment, Sustainable Development, Beach and Disaster Management, Honourable Dayal. Thereafter, there has not been a proper implementation of ‘Knowledge for Life’, as far as Mauritius is concerned. It is noteworthy that he had attended Sendai Conference in March 2015 accompanied by Commander Servasingh who represented the Disaster Management Centre.

Paradoxically speaking, the ex-minister has been ‘sacked’ by the Prime Minister on grounds of an alleged case of Fraud and Corruption. This event took place on the very day that ‘23 March World Meteorological Day 2016’ was supposed to be marked. Besides, the gentleman is a very religious man who manages a Temple of his own. His resignation was also on the eve of the Holi festival which marks the victory of good over the evil. Moreover, this Policy Maker, now a back bencher waiting for his trial at the court, is also an ex-Commissioner of Police.

 

I submitted a hard-bound document of 28 pages dated 26 December 2014 and entitled ‘Mauritius Meteorological Services, Disaster Management Centre and Mauritius Broadcasting Corporation- Worst Institutions of the Republic of Mauritius…’ to the newly appointed Prime Minister Sir Anerood Jugnauth and to his alliance leaders, including the Minister of Good Governance and the then Minister of Environment/ Disaster Management.

The most horrible of all was that Hon. Dayal, ex-Minister of Environment lost my document and I had to submit another one on 08 January 2015. Furthermore, he cancelled the two meetings with me to discuss issues of Disaster Management.

 

NB: The Ministry of Environment has never invited me to participate in conferences/workshops for which I have requested since long. Mr Sobadutt, the one who is responsible for tackling ‘Climate Change’ issues, had himself asked me to register my name, regarding participation. I have done it on 16 October 2013, yet he did not and up to now not convene me, in spite of my telephone calls. I had made it clear to the officers that I intend to share my findings.

How horrible characters exist at the top of political life and of institution! This Ministry has been, since then, wholly attached to the Ministry of Public Service.

 

The series of documents submitted to past Policy Makers remain have all remained unanswered and not reacted upon.

  • The ex-Lord Mayor denied my sensitization, a week beforehand, on the oncoming Extreme Flood of 13 February 2013;
  • The ex-Minister of Education did not give me the green light to continue my conferences at college level three weeks before the Mega and Deadly Flood of 30 March 2013, in spite of my repeated requests emails/telephones;
  • The ex-Speaker of the National Assembly failed, a week beforehand, to assemble the members-government and opposition sides, to whom I intended to warn through my presentation of the impeding Mega and Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013. I also wrote a document ‘CONSCIENCE COLLECTIVE OF THE POLICY MAKERS…IN VIEW OF NURTURING DYNAMIC EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND OF BUILDING A DISASTER RESILIENT SOCIETY IN THE REPUBLIC OF MAURITIUS’ which I submitted to him on 22 March 2013.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     I had mentioned, besides listing the loopholes in our Early Warning Systems, to apply the brakes as the system is cruising towards the ditch. I had also stated that there was no need to have recourse to foreign expertise to understand that situation. Catastrophically, the ex-Speaker did not speak to me at all and stayed totally mute. Unfortunately, the loss of innocent lives tolled to 11 on 30 03 2013.

 

Disaster Resilience in Mauritius.

None of the 70 Policy Makers (government and opposition sides) of Mauritius are professionals in meteorology, oceanography, geology or of scientific background, etc. Most of them are from the legal profession, followed by those of medical, financial, teachers and business background. The ex-minster Dayal who was also ex-police commissioner, may have some experience in Disaster Response, but he is no more in that position.

 


 Disaster Management in Mauritius relies, mainly, on the Mauritius Meteorological Services, Ministry of Environment and Beach and Disaster Management which is now administrated by Minister of Public Service.

Disaster Management Centre

At page 36 of the Document dated 28 May 2011 and entitled ‘An Authentic Pleading for an Urgent Awareness and Preparedness Campaign in view of Mitigating Impact of Natural Disasters in the Indian Ocean’ which I submitted to the then Policy Makers, mention has been made:

Your Disaster Management Committee resembles a heavy coal operated train that is moving lamentably and puffing soot and noxious gases in the atmosphere and leaking oil all along the track. It is protocolaire, bureaucratic, unprofessional and slack. It is not a think tank. There are no campaigns of raising Awareness and Preparedness that are being undertaken currently… In contrast, I have a master plan in addressing these issues with perfect DYNAMISM and providing safety and security to 1.2m+… and by PUTTING PEOPLE FIRST supported by lots of legislations.

 

Disaster Management which is a ‘Country-Driven Mechanism’ continues to be ‘Reactive’, ‘Ad hoc basis’, ‘Ghost-like’,foetus-like’, ‘putting-the-ox-behind-the-cart’ and often absent, except on a few sporadic interventions. The response and rescue mechanisms may be on the Alert by the authorities, but Education, Awareness, Preparedness and Mitigation on the risks and hazards have no strong, reliable and ever going strategies. As a result, each time there are some heavy rainfalls or cyclonic conditions, there is a general panic at almost all levels, including the Policy Makers.

There are lots of examples from which lessons are not being learnt and taken for the Adaptation Framework. Besides, neither the Disaster Management Centre nor the Meteorological Services of Mauritius makes an assessment after the passing of each Natural Calamity.

If you ask any citizen- members of the National Assembly, or any intellectual or any layman the question suppose: to explain the differences between a cyclone and an anti-cyclone or to say in what directions the winds blow in Mauritius? The answer may not be perfect, except by some professionals in meteorology or by some students. This view is based on my findings, observations and researches.

 

That is why I have always qualified the Policy Makers of Mauritius as ‘Illiterate in Disaster Management’. So, vulnerability exists in its widest sense.

 

Mauritius Meteorological Services

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has the top responsibility to monitor Natural Calamities related to Weather, Climate and Hydrology, by virtue of the WMO Protocols. The role of the World Meteorological Organisation is to contribute in providing safety and welfare to humanity, that is:

  1. “protection of life and property against natural disasters- droughts, floods, cyclones, forest fires, etc.;
  2. to safeguard the environment;
  3. to enhance the social and economic well-being in all sectors of society in areas like food security, water resources and transport.”

 

Mauritius, being one of the 191 member states of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Mission Statement of the MMS is the same.

 

The MMS is aslo responsible to watch Tides, Sea Swells, Tsunamis, Earthquakes and etc. But, how can it be explained that the Meteorological Services has fixed, since 1986, a Tide Gauge at the end of the labyrinth of the harbour? The place is called Trou Fanfaron where the sea water is always muddy, opaque and almost stagnant. Besides, the zone is surrounded by ships-big and small which are anchored nearly permanantly, thus causing all types dumpings and pollution. This 'Life-Saving-Tool' is located about two kilometers from the mouth of the harbour, wherein hundreds of people come and go. It is at this particular busy place called Caudan Water Front that 11 got drowned: 6 at the underpas and 2 at the underground parking. So, this equipment has been fixed contrary to the concept of Early Warning Systems. See picture.

 

There have been lots of interactions between me and the directors or staff of the Mauritius Meteorological Services:

  • Ex-director Mr Vagjee did not hesitate to send me by post, the MMS report published on the occasion of 23 March World Meteorological Day 1999, after I informed by writing that I was devoting to research work on a Full-Time basis. After the death of four citizens during the Flash Flood of 26 March 2008, the government had instituted a Fact Finding Committee chaired by Justice Domah, supported by Mr Rosalie Chairman of Disaster Committee and Mr Vagjee ex-director of the MMS as assessors. I was one of those who deponed at the Committee. Unfortunately, all of them failed to mention, in their report, about the Impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) which I had Predicted;
  • Mr Sok Appadu, ex-director has been more proactive as he used to listen or to discuss my way of Predicting Natural Calamities. In fact, he was the one who acceded to my request of attending the UNISDR Conference held in May 2005, at Grand Baie, Mauritius after the Deadly Tsunami of 26 December 2004. He was the one who introduced me to two Scientists of Indonesia to whom I explained my Prediction Capacity. In fact, I informed them that I had Predicted the Tsunami of 26 December since March-May 2002 while I was conducting a survey in Rodrigues Island. In addition, Mr Sok Appadu listened carefully to my explanation of the Torrential Rain of 13 February 2013. We were interacting on the issue just one day before the Extreme Weather Event, but by that time he had already retired. He requested me to give the same explanation to Mr Dunputh, but I had already informed him ten days earlier.
  • Ex-director Mr. Souresh Boodhoo was another one who lent an ear to my short-medium-long term Prediction Capacity. I stated this to him while he was delivering a talk live on the Radio Station of the Mauritius Broadcasting Corporation in 2002, to which he was agreeable. On a further occasion in 2007, I emailed to him by mentioning that ‘there would not be any disastrous cyclone which would visit Mauritius between 2007 and 2012.' He accepted my Prediction and it was true, except Cyclone Dina which tracked rather towards Reunion Island. However, he turned a deaf ear when I sensitized him, repetitively since 2007, to launch an ''Awareness, Preparedness and Mitigation Campaign''.
  • Ex-director Mr Beebeejaun, who was recalled from his retirement to replace Mr Dunputh who was sacked, has not interacted with me because I ceased to share my Forecasts as from 23 March 2013. Yet, my Forecast Track of Cyclone AMARA (16-22 December 2013), which I predicted to pass Eastwards near Pointe Cotton, Rodrigues at 5.00 pm was more precise. Mr Beebeejaun’s forecast was ''late at night''. See article.
  • One MMS Forecaster had a discussion with me live on MBC Radio station in 2003. While he was explaining Scientific Forecast, I was clarifying the same approach with Traditional Knowledge. Obviously and unfortunately, he did not accept my version. Read more below.
  • I have also gone in person to the MMS office to express my disagreement on some particular weather forecast in 2003.

 

It is worthwhile to state here, that I had a meeting with the ex-director of MMS-Mr. Dunputh on 17 October 2012, just three days before I flew to Rodrigues Island to launch my Campaign on ‘Awareness, Preparedness and Mitigation of Natural Calamities in the Indian Ocean.’ My aim was to discuss with him:

  1. Copy right access for my campaign;
  2. Traditional Knowledge which is complementary to scientific forecasts;
  3. Why the list of cyclones was not yet published despite the evolution of Cyclone Anais since 13 October 2012 and
  4. Why International Disaster Reduction Day 13 October 2012 was not marked.

 

It is worthwhile to mention that the ex-director was not happy with my campaign because he told me that I have no right to carry it out, that it is on the MMS to do it. Well, the MMS has never done such a job.

It was the same Mr. Dunputh who was ''acting director'' when 4 citizens lost their life on 26 March 2008. He was the one who discarded the Alert which I submitted to him ten days before the approaching Torrential Rain of 13 February 2013. He was the one who criticized me live on a private radio station, on 22 March 2013 while he was commenting on World Meteorological Day. Mr Dunputh, moreover and unfortunately, did not consider the Flood Warning I alerted to him ten days beforehand of the Mega and Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013. See pictures. He was thereafter rightly requested to pack up from office for his amateurism.

 

   

 

Yet, there are at least a dozen loopholes in this institution. Besides, the current Director- Mr Mungra has stated at the national television station-Mauritius Broadcasting Corporation (MBC), a few months ago, about lack of a Meteorological Radar, of modern equipment and technology, of human and other resources. The meteorological radar which was installed at Trou aux Cerfs in 1977, became obsolete by 2002, after 25 years of service. It means that the MMS Forecasters have been deluding every one with inappropriate data/information. The question is why have they not been referring to Sister Island Reunion which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC), wherein two Radars are in operation. This regional consultation do not seem to be activate regularly, because lots of Heavy Rainfalls and Extreme Weather Events have been wrongly forecasted by the MMS. Recent localised Flash Floods in Fond du Sac and in Rempart prove this non-cooperation/consultation. Do you consider this as activating the EWS? Refer to picture of Meteo-France-Reunion.

 

Unfortunately, the director Mr Mungra is not willing to address the shortcomings I mentioned to the following:

  1. Indian Ocean Commission (IOC/COI) in document entitled-La Commision de L’Océan Indien et La Gestion des Catastrophes à Maurice submitted on 29 August 2014;
  2. ex-French Ambassador-Mr Laurent Garnier in documentLa Gestion des Catastrophes à Maurice, La France et COP 21’ submitted on 25 November 2015 and
  3. EU Ambassador- Mrs Marjana Sall in report entitledEuropean Union, International Funds and Disaster Management in Mauritius handed over on 29 July 2016.

Paragragh 24 (i) of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 published on 18 March 2015 reads as follows: 

“Ensure the use of traditional, indigenous and local knowledge and practices, as appropriate, to complement scientific knowledge in disaster risk assessment and the development and implementation of policies, strategies, plans and programmes of specific sectors, with a cross-sectoral approach, which should be tailored to localities and to the context.”

This Sendai Framework has not been implemented. Moreover, 23rd March World Meteorological Day 2015, whose theme was: ‘Climate Knowledge for Climate Action’ was not marked by the MMS. The theme of this year 2016: ‘Hotter, Drier, Wetter and Face the Future’ was equally not commemorated.

Being consistent with my ‘Cheval de Bataille of sensitizing at international, regional and local levels:

  • I wrote, just two days before the Mega and Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013 in Mauritius, to ex-President David Grimes informing him about 17 out of the 53 Member States of WMO which do not seem to provide adequate data/information to their respective population. I reiterated this issue to Dr. Mukabana, Director of WMO/AMCOMET, Geneva in August 2014. Finally, WMO published the information in 2015 that 70 out of the 191 Member States do not do so.

  • Dr Mukabana, consistently, encouraged my views and suggestions since 2014, namely regarding the introduction and recognition of Traditional Knowledge as complementary to Scientific Forecasts of Natural Hazards. You should well know that the UN has recognised the Rights of Indigenous Peoples world-wide. My ‘Cheval de Bataille’ was always and still is the application of Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/ Practices (TILK/P). I state here, that although there has never been Indigenous People in Mauritius, there is the existence of ‘Indigenous Knowledge’ the application of which makes me to excel in my Forecasts of Cyclones, Floods and other Natural Calamities. The most recent proof is Very Intense Cyclone FANTALA- the Record-Breaker, which I Predicted 25 days before it was named and forecasted by the Meteorologists of NOAA, NASA, Météo-France, Météo Madagascar, Seychelles Meteorological Services and the poor Météo-Vacoas.

  • My other ‘Cheval de Bataille’ has been and still is the ‘Observations of Clouds from the Ground’ and their applications as components in the Early Warning Systems and to be complementary to Scientific Forecasts of Cyclones, Heavy Rainfalls, Floods, Heat, Droughts, Hailstones, Acid Rains, etc. After my repeated sensitisation to the WMO, through Dr Mukabana and through articles in my Website, positive results were yielded thereon. WMO released the information on 01 October 2015, that the ‘International Cloud Atlas Volumes I and II’ of WMO were being revived with an updated revision. This task has been conferred on the Hong Kong Observatory for the construction of a world-wide New Cloud Atlas. Moreover, a photo competition has also been launched in this direction.

 

  • I have promised WMO, through Dr Mukabana, 'that I will build the Cloud Atlas of the South Indian Ocean with appropriate names'. You may refer to my website to see some of my Cloud Atlas, many pictures of which are unique (refer to picture above). All these represent my INNOVATIONS in Predicting Natural Hazards, which have propelled me to realise my objectives.

Dr Mukabana has been very encouraging towards me since 30 July 2014, after I had given him a list of a dozen loopholes found in the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS).

See his reply: [from: Joseph Mukabana This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

date: Thu, 5 Feb 2015 18:55:32 -0100

Dear Kanhye

I have read your news.

 I would advise the top people to meet you and listen to what you have to say.

 Kind regards

 Joseph.]

 

 

As mentioned above there are at least a dozen loopholes at the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS). The current director is not willing to address them, in spite of the message sent by Dr Mukabana who did it while respecting the WMO Protocol. It started when the MMS embarked, following the decision of the Mauritian Cabinet in June 2015, on a project of enhancing the Early Warning Systems (EWS). The ''acting director'' of MMS replied to my enquiry on 29 June: “The project is a national project. it aims to enhance the warning system of the meteorological services with the guidance of WMO.”

It is worthwhile to note that WMO was not aware of the project, as informed to me by Dr Mukabana. However, the latter mentioned, as per his email dated 10 July 2015, ‘but we are ready and willing to provide guidance if approached by the PR of Mauritius with WMO’.

At the end of the day, the project was carried out under the guidance of one representative of WMO, in which I was not convened.

That is why I mentioned to the EU Representative, that the meteorological department is equivalent to one carrying a cargo of sponge and crossing a river notoriously known to be hazardous.’ Click Next to read more.

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