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SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

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BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

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UNDERSTANDING CLOUDS

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL DAY 23 MARCH 2017

The theme of ‘World Meteorological Day 23 March 2017’  has been declared by the World Meteorological Organization (WM0) as ‘UNDERSTANDING CLOUDS’. No doubt, the aim is to revive knowledge and highlight the importance of CLOUDS which form and evolve dynamically all across the Atmosphere of the Blue Marble. Clouds form naturally and are also induced by man. Each Cloud, be it the tiniest or the most gigantic has a shape, some complexion and a name. They all have an origin, importance and impact in the atmosphere, on oceans, and on landmasses. The WMO has launched officially today 23 March 2017, the new and revised version of the International Cloud Atlas, so long awaited. This task was allocated to the Hong Kong Observatory. CLOUDS also represent the torch-bearers in the Early Warning Systems and help Disaster Resilience, amongst others.

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said during his presentation on 23 March 2017:

“If we want to forecast weather we have to understand clouds. If we want to model the climate system we have to understand clouds. And if we want to predict the availability of water resources, we have to understand clouds.”   

Smokes and Gases emitted by transpirations, evaporations, motor cycles, cars, trucks, buses, trains,  industrial plants, forest/agricultural fires, landfills, boats, ships, aeroplanes, helicopters, rockets, volcanoes, bombs, etc. transform into Clouds during some process. On one hand, they accelerate global warming and on the other hand they trigger formations of cyclones, typhoons, hurricanes and droughts, etc. See below.

 

Water can be seen in the forms of solid, liquid and gas. It is naturally distributed to the landmasses, oceans and atmosphere. It sustains life as far as there is some equilibrium. However, any excess causes disasters in form of rains, floods, cyclones, etc. 71-72% of the Blue Marble is covered with water:-seas, oceans, rivers, lakes, ice sheets/caps. These are the main sources from which Clouds are formed, after some process of evaporation. The water cycle is based on this natural process. Refer to pictures

                   

Classifications of Clouds

CLOUDS are classified in three levels, depending on the regions of the Planet:

    WMO-Approximate heights of each level, and the genera occurring in each.

                     
 

The CLOUDS which are for our common concern can be seen from land masses, oceans, aeroplanes and space. The same Cloud genera seen from all these angles do not appear to be of the same form and complexion. Moreover, each country sees them differently. Sometimes they appear artisitc and on other times they seem horrible and awfull. It is interesting to state that Clouds of same genera appear mild in Mauritius and perhaps in the South-West Indian Ocean. The plausible explanation is that islands are located in the open ocean, where the sea surface temperature may interfere in their shapes and texture. On the contrary, they may seem horrible/awfull on larger land masses and continents where the land temperature is higher. These can be verified, amongst other sources, on Facebook and Twitter pages, from where you can discover the remarkable works carried out by Cloud-trackers world-wide. 

Early Warning Systems and Scientific Knowledge

Geostationary and Polar Orbiting Satellites administered by NASA, NOAA, JAXA, ISRO, ESA, EUMETSAT, etc. track clouds, smokes, fires, floods, cyclones, tornadoes, hurricanes, anti-cyclones, snowfalls, icebergs and lots of other items identified on/in oceans, landmasses and atmosphere. All these are carried out by making use of Sensors, Cameras, Radars, Equipment, Tools and Devices of sophisticated nature. These give Real-Time imageries, pictures, data and information which are provided to, mainly, land based stations and centres. Meteorological Radars and balloons provide almost the same data/information. As far as our region is concerned, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)/US and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC)/US are the first recepients and Advisories Centres.

Scientists, meteorologists and researchers who work in these centres, handle all the data and bits of information thereon received. They decode, interprete, encode and issue alerts, warnings, advisories and bulletins in which all the parametres/ingredients are mentioned: temperature, height, distance, wind- force, direction and speed, intensity, forecast tracks, convections, troughs, ridges, sea surface temperature, etc. They also rely on Numerical Models, which are known not to be perfect.

All the subsequent Advisories are accessible to every meteorological station, institution, department and centre found in all corners of this Blue Planet. The public, too, has access thereto. All these data and information are provided relentlessly and almost freely for the Securitiy and Protection of Mankind. These intenational centres and teams who work out such crucial information, merrit our gratitude for the execution of their wonderful tasks.

It is then, the Mission Statement and sacred duty of the world-wide Meteorological Centres/Stations (191) to disseminate such data and information as ‘Life-Saving-Tools’ in the Early Warnng Systems (EWS). So, the populations of each country is eligible to receive such warnings, alerts and bulletins on a Real-Time’ basis. The main objective is to ‘Save Lives’ and to mitigate the loss of probable economic activity, livelihood and material things.

Early Warning Systems and Traditional Knowldege

Traditional Knowldege is the oldest science discovered, developped and enhanced my Human Creatures. This is a very vast field of knowledge spread across almost all activities of Mankind. Today, such capacity is summarily classified as Traditional, Indigenous, Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P). As far as the identifications of Natural Calamities are concerned, creatures make use of their five Senses: eyes, nose, tongue, ears and touch. In fact, all creatures on land, in oceans and in the sky are harnessed wih such capacity. But, Mankind is endowed with an addtitonal Faculty-the SIXTH sense.

So, droughts, heat, temperature, wind force, direction and speed, cyclones, floods, snowfalls, tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanic ereuptions, fires, etc. can also be identified by any Human Being, who is supposed to be more capable than animals. It is a question of natural instinct, interpretation and experience.

As far as Climate, Weather and Hydrology are concerned, any Hazard related to these can be detected. Therefore, tracking of Clouds from the ground, Observations of the atmosphere and the environment, trigger lots of data and information. These can be decoded, interpreted, encoded and alerts disseminated for the Safety and Protection of every creature. Models can also be built depending on the Faculty and experience of any individual. Long, medium and short term Forecasts can also be made. There are lots of such  examples stated in the more than 120 articles and over 15 videos uploaded in this website. See http://www.kanhye.com/gallery/videos-climate  

The UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) has highlighted Traditonal, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILKP). The example of the British school girl who saved the life of a hundred persons in a tourist resort in Thailand during the Deadly Tsunami of 26 December 2004. She had acquired Traditional Knowledge at school about the signs of the ‘turbulent sea and loud noise of the approaching Tsunami waves.

Furthermore, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 also advocates the use of Traditional Knowledge.

WMO defines Early Warning Systems as follows:

[Early warning systems (EWS) are a critical life-saving tool for floods, droughts, storms, bushfires and other hazards.

Effective EWS include four components: (1) detection, monitoring and fore­casting the hazards; (2) analysis of risks involved; (3) dissemination of timely and authoritative warnings; and (4) activation of emergency preparedness and response plans.]

(Updated: 9.50 pm Friday 24 March 2017) 

Sensitizing World Meteorological Organization

The World Meteorological Organization(WMO) has given the green light to consider TILK/P and Observations of Clouds from the Ground:

  • as a ‘Life-Saving-Tool’ in the Early Warning Systems (EWS) and
  •   as to be complementary component with Scientific Forecasts of Natural Hazards. 

All these have been possible during my contacts with the WMO Head Quarters, Geneva done since 2013. The first contact was done to WMO President David Grimes, just two days before the Mega/Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013. I  stated that 17 out of the 53 Member States of Region 1 Africa, do not seem to provide adequate data and information for their respective populations. See emails below.

The issues, including others, were raised on 07 July, 05 August, 07 August 2014 and afterwards with Dr Joseph R. Mukabana, (PhD), MBS Director, Offices for Africa and Least Developed Countries (AFLDC) Development and Regional Activities (DRA) Department, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, Avenue de la Paix, Case Postale 2300 CH-1211 Genève 2. He has been very encouraging towards my sensitization campaigns, at local, regional and international levels. All communication was held with due respect to WMO Conventions/Protocols. See a summary thereon.

On Tuesday 05 August 2014 he wrote:

[Dear KANHYE

I am impressed by your articulation on science-based decision making. ]  

Dr. MUKABANA replied promptly on Thursday, 5 Feb 2015 18:55:32 -0100

[Dear Kanhye

I have read your news. 

I would advise the top people to meet you and listen to what you have to say.

Kind regards

Joseph.] 

Regarding the Mauritius Meteorological Services pilot poject, in collaboration with the WMO, on Weather Forecast’. Dr Mukabana replied on Fri, 26 Jun 2015 17:59:39 +0200

[My Dear KANHYE
I am not aware of a pilot project launch by Mauritius in collaboration with WMO...

My humble submission to you is to request you to visit the NMHS in Mauritius and liaise with the PR to discuss face-to-face the challenges faced by the department and counter-check the information and services generated against the 10 loopholes. This concrete first step will enable you to  work with the NMHS to find home-grown solutions for national weather-related problems...

I want to affirm and agree with you totally that it is increasingly being acknowledged by many scholars that Traditional and Indigenous Knowledge, if well used  do compliment Scientific Knowledge. This is because the Traditional and Indigenous Knowledge is borne of many years of learning and observation passed down through generations and has enabled indigenous populations survive over many hazards. Hence infusion of the traditional Forecasting Methodologies (TFMs) using Indigenous Knowledge (IK) can play a crucial role as an early warning tool and in adaptation to severe weather and extreme climate events occasioned by climate change.

Lastly, I am also copying Ms Clare Nullis, Head of the Communication and Public Affairs (CPA) Office at WMO to link with you and explore the possibility of working together to share your weather/climate and related apolitical information with WMO.

Kind regards

Joseph] 

On Friday 10 July 2015 15:05:23 +0200, he replied to me:

[Dear Kanhye

Thanks for your e-mail that was packed with a lot of useful information on predictions of weather phenomena and your own experiences with various Directors at Mauritius Meteorological Service (MMS) including Policy Makers (PMs). It is indeed a rich experience from which others can learn a lesson or two in persistence and perseverance for a set purpose of saving lives and minimizing destruction of property through accurate and timely prediction of natural hazards on land, air and ocean/sea...

The "National Project on Early Warning System" at MMS has not been revealed to WMO but we are ready and willing to provide guidance if approached by the PR of Mauritius with WMO...

I strongly support infusion of Traditional Knowledge into scientific data and its application in weather and climate forecasting. It is recognized and applied in some countries of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) as Indigenous Knowledge (IK)… Hence, the IK can be a ‘life saving tool’ to complement scientific data and is recognized by the UN Organs, as you clearly allude.] 

Kind regards

Joseph.]

 

WMO International Cloud Atlas-New Version

It is worthwhile to show (briefly) how the issue of a New Version of the International Cloud Atlas evolved at the WMO, Geneva.

WMO News release of 11 June 2015:

<< The World Meteorological Organization is advancing with a major project to revise and update the International Cloud Atlas. The aim is to produce a user-friendly, digital-based product which is an authoritative, comprehensive and up-to-date source of reference and is also interesting and accessible to a wide audience.

Progress in updating the International Cloud Atlas was presented during the World Meteorological Congress, as were proposals to recognize new clouds, including those produced from human activities like aviation.

“I see the Cloud Atlas as the business card of WMO,” said Bertrand Calpini, President of the Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observations, which is overseeing the project...

The Task Team will invite National Meteorological Services and meteorological societies around the world to submit images and supporting data for possible inclusion. This is a time-consuming process because the emphasis is on technical accuracy and authority rather than speed, but it is hoped that a web-based Atlas will be ready in 2016.>>

Another press released by WMO on 01 October 2015 as follows:

<< The World Meteorological Organization is calling for the submission of high quality photographs of clouds to feature as “reference images” in the next edition of the International Cloud Atlas.

The roots of the International Cloud Atlas date back to the 19th century. The International Meteorological Conference published the first International Cloud Atlas containing 28 coloured pictures in 1896.

The existing Cloud Atlas has two volumes and was originally published in 1956. Volume I is a detailed technical manual of standards. Volume II contains around 220 plates of photographs of clouds and certain other meteors (such as precipitation types, haze, rainbows, and lightning).

Each photograph is accompanied by explanatory text to enable the pictures in Volume II to be understood without the detailed technical definitions and descriptions contained in Volume I, and has been revised and updated on several occasions, most recently in 1987 with the addition of new photographs.

Cloud Classification

The present international system of Latin-based cloud classification dates back to 1803, when amateur meteorologist Luc Howard wrote a book The Modifications of Clouds.  WMO currently recognizes ten cloud genera (basic classifications), which describe where in the sky they form and their approximate appearance:

Further News released on the occasion of the WM Day 2016:

<< WMO is holding a photo competition on the 2016 World Meteorological Day theme: “Hotter, drier, wetter. Face the Future.”...Winning entries will feature in the 2016 WMO calendar.>> 

WMO noticed that there were not enough entries and made another request on 19 January 2016:

<<The World Meteorological Organization is issuing another call for the submission of high quality photographs of clouds to feature as “reference images” in the next edition of the International Cloud Atlas.>>

World Meteorological Day 23 March 2017-‘UNDERSTANDING CLOUDS’

Finally, 23 March 2017, which marks the World Meteorological Day, saw the publication of the New Version of the International Cloud Atlas.

<<WMO currently recognizes ten cloud genera (basic classifications), which describe where in the sky they form and their approximate appearance. >>

<<Consideration of the most typical forms of clouds leads to the recognition of ten genera. The definitions of the genera given below do not cover all possible aspects, but are limited to a description of the main types and of the essential characteristics necessary to distinguish a given genus from genera having a somewhat similar appearance. >>

   

 

                                                     

                                             

GREEN LIGHT in considering TILK/P and Observations of CLOUDS from the Ground has been duly recognized by WMO. During my contacts with Dr. Mukabana, I suggested that I will construct the CLOUD ATLAS of the South Indian Ocean. There are lots of photographs of Clouds which are displayed in various articles of this Website. But, as from 27 October 2015, all Clouds have been named in accordance with the Classifications established by WMO International Cloud Atlas Volumes I & II, which were republished during 2015. They are all almost same of the New Version.

NB: All photographs have been taken with the help of three different cameras. So, their formats are not same. However, this SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN CLOUD ATLAS is open for comments.

High Level

  

 Middle Level

 

 

Low Level

 Chaotic Sky

Special Clouds Indicating Approaching Cyclone, Flood or Heavy Rainfall

 

 

Fair Weather

Video will be uploaded soon. Keep Watch.

Solemn Request to WMO and its 191 Members

I often like  to quote what Dr. Jan Egeland, UN Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs, mentioned at the UNISDR Conference at Kobe, Japan on (18-22) January  2005, following the Devastating Tsunami of 26 December 2004 (which I had Predicted in March-April 2002:

Disaster reduction is not simply a matter of sophisticated technology and hardware: at root it is also a matter of communication and education...We need better ways of communicating accurate information to the public in need of such information”.                                                     

The Second International Coordination Meeting for the Development of the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System was held on 14-16 April 2005 at the Grand Baie Conference, Mauritius. I participated as an Observer and Reseacher with the support of Mr. Sok Appadu, ex-director of the Mauritius Meteorological Services. The ‘Mauritius Declaration’ was thereafter adopted by all the participants. Paragraph 12 reads as follows:

‘Welcome the efforts by countries of the Indian Ocean to, jointly or individually, their capacity to build knowldege, public awareness, preparedness, including the use of Traditional Knowledge and exchange good practices.’

All these mean that the 191 meteorological services (NMHS) of this Blue Planet should INNOVATE by adopting TILK/P and Observations of Clouds as  complementary components with Scientific Knowledge, as far as Forecasts of Natural Hazards are concerned. It is well-known that Numerical Models are NOT 100% viable. They should also stop being bureaucratic, arrogant, amateurist and ‘not sleep on their laurels’. They should foster the Best Practices in sharing, educating, sensitizing and providing data and information timely with utmost professionalism and effectiveness. The main reason behind all these is the fact that Calamities, at world-wide level, are triggerred with frequency and intensity.

In other words, meteorologists and forecasters should make optimum use of resources of the digital world. So, cameras, videos and other devices are neccesary in tracking CLOUDS and Weather Phenomena for a better communication and presentation of their websites. Some meteorological services are already moving in this direction, like ABOM, MF, UK Met, NWS/US, etc.

The South-West Indian Ocean Basin is located among the most vulnerable zones. MF is a model, the MMS is still amateurist and working without a Radar, Madagascar is making some efforts, Seychelles and Comoros are still lagging behind. Others of the Blue Marble are, unfortunately, on the same footing. The directors of NMHS institutions are requested, in case when Policy Makers earmark low or inadequate budgets for upgrading purposes, ‘to challenge their leaders and make them accountable’. This is what ex-UN Secretary Genenral stated during his visit to Mauritius on 08-10 May 2016.

The World Meteorological Organization is therefore solemnly requested to see to it that Sustainable Development, Safety and Protection of the populations be achieved through dynamic meteorological services. The WMO may revise the Protocols and should make a follow-up to assess how far the past Themes of 23 March WMD have been implemented and progress made accordingly.

It is equally worth noting that the MMS simply assembled, on 23 March 2017, about two dozen people to listen to his speech delivered to mark the theme of 'UNDERSTATDING CLOUDS'. Miserably, this is the normal and ill-conceived model of doing so, year in year out. Besides, it should not be forgotten that the ex-Minister of Environment, Sustainable Development and Disaster Management was sacked on 23 March 2016. He was accused of ‘solliciting bribery’ a day before and his case is still on trial at the court.

However, it is noteworthy to note that Afganistan is making a comeback.

NB: It is by applying TILK/P, Observations of Clouds from the Ground and combination of Scientific Knowledge that the Extreme Weather Event of 13 February 2013 and of the Mega/Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013 were identified and alerted to the Mauritius Meteorological Services ten days beforehand. Unfortunately, the ex-director did not consider them and even criticised the Early Warning given. The Loss of Lives’ tolled to 11 and the rate increased to 275% as compared to 26 March 2008 (4 deaths). See articles on various such Events. 

It is in the same way that the Summer Outlook 2016-2017’ has been 100% Perfect PREDICTION and a Medium-Term Model to be considered:

  1. Change in Climate and Weather Pattern’;
  2. ‘NB: CARLOS which is the next name in the cyclone list is in the pipeline to form after the second week of January 2017. A FLOOD STORM, too, is preceding this System’;
  3. ‘There is High Confidence as to the first Systems for 2017 will form in the Mozambique Channel and/or near Madagascar’;
  4. ‘March, which is the peak of the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System, is Predicted to offer scenarios of Extreme Weather Conditions with Floods coupled with Disastrous Cyclones’ and
  5. ‘ONLY 4 Cyclone formations are Predicted for the South Indian Ocean Season 2016-2017’.  

The ultimate launching of the International Cloud Atlas by WMO also represents the culminating milestone raced by my 'CHEVAL de BATAILLE' in the relentless campaign for the recognition of TILK/P and of Observation of CLOUDS from the Ground, as complementary to Scientific Knowledge. I am at the disposal of any international meteorological services and/or Disaster Management Centre of the Blue Marble for sharing my Knowledge and Experience. Madagascar was my target a few months ago. See my Comments on 2 months ago- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFNgVlih86E&t=19s

<<BRAVO, BRAVO, BRAVO METEO MADAGASCAR for empowering the Youth who are the hope of the future. This is a MODEL which needs to be copied by all Meteorological and Disaster Management Services of the whole world. Congratulations to Little Baby. How I wished to join MM to promote such Knowledge. Keep Watch as CARLOS and a FLOOD STORM are in the pipeline.Carry on. Vellum. Until the UPDATE See also: http://www.kanhye.com/9-climate-weather/121-summer-outlook-2016-2017-south-indian-ocean,-prediction-and-cyclone-names.>> 

       CLICK picture below to Watch from WMO, Geneva HQ.Keep Watch for other News.

PKANHYE.                             Final Uploading 31 MARCH 2017.

Follow me on    and videos 

Read more: World Meteorological Day-23 March 2016. Minister DAYAL responsible for Environment and Disaster Management steps down today;

                                LIVE TO TELL 2016- 13 OCTOBER DAY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION;    

                                Summer Outlook 2016-2017 South Indian Ocean, Prediction and Cyclone Names;

                                Flood Storm -100%Perfect PREDICTION Cyclone CARLOS in Pipeline;

                                CARLOS Severe Tropical Storm:100% Perfect Prediction- Poor Forecasts, Monitoring and Disaster Resilience;

                                DINEO Tropical Cyclone 13-15 February 2017 South-West Indian Ocean- Another 100% Perfect PREDICTION;

                                ENAWO 3rd Cyclone for 2017 South Indian Ocean- Forming in Same Zone as PREDICTED in January 2017;

                                FERNANDO Twin of ENAWO- Intense Tropical Cyclone- Another 100% Perfect PREDICTION and others.

                               

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