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SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

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International Day for Disaster Reduction-

13 October 2017: ‘Reducing the number of affected People.’

 

UN Report says natural disasters to become more destructive in Asia-Pacific without action on disaster resilience.”

UNISDR IDDR 2017:

“This year's Day will focus on Target 2 of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, with the goal of reducing the number of affected people by disasters by 2030.”

Uploaded: Tuesday 10 October 2017.

Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDDR) 2015 has been considered as the successor of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015.

In its Preamble mention has been made as follows:

[1. The present post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction was adopted at the Third World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, held from 14 to 18 March 2015 in Sendai, Miyagi, Japan, which represented a unique opportunity for countries to:

(a) Adopt a concise, focused, forward-looking and action-oriented post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction;

(b) Complete the assessment and review of the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters;

(c) Consider the experience gained through the regional and national strategies/institutions and plans for disaster risk reduction and their recommendations, as well as relevant regional agreements under the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action;

(d) Identify modalities of cooperation based on commitments to implement a post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction;

(e) Determine modalities for the periodic review of the implementation of a post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction.

2. During the World Conference, States also reiterated their commitment to disaster risk reduction and the building of resilience to disasters to be addressed with a renewed sense of urgency in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication and, as appropriate, to be integrated into policies, plans, programmes, and budgets at all levels and considered within relevant frameworks.] 

The top priority for all the states around Asia and Pacific was to Build Resilience in a region wherein some 80 million people were affected and nearly $60 billion in economic losses were incurred by natural disasters in 2014.

The report of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) said that ‘more than half of the world’s 226 natural disasters occurred in the Asia and Pacific region last year….The report noted that the highest economic losses in Asia and the Pacific were incurred from river-basin floods ($16 billion) and Cyclone HudHud ($11 billion) in India, followed by the Ludian earthquake in China ($6 billion), and the tropical cyclones Lingling and Kajiki in Japan ($5.2 billion).’ 

 

INDIA-Disaster Resilience is Remote

THE SENDAI SEVEN CAMPAIGN - 7 Targets, 7 Years (2016-2022)-

2017 – Target 2: ‘Substantially reduce the number of people affected globally by 2030, aiming to lower the average global figure per 100,000 in the decade 2020-2030 compared to the period 2005-2015’.

http://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf 

 

The whole land mass of India is under the permanent threats of all kinds of Natural Catastrophes from the Atmosphere, Ocean and Land. These can be mostly explained scientifically by the evidences that the Sub-Continent of India migrated, calculated to have started 71 million years ago, from the Southern part of Gondwanaland Mass.

The question is what, besides overexploting, have the several Emperors, Kings, colonisers/invaders-Roman, Greek, Turks, Mongols, French and British and Policy Makers been achieving during their Rules? 

Disaster Management Act 2005 

The Disaster Management Act was passed by the Indian Government in 2005. It coincided with the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015. This appears to be really awkward. The question which can be again asked is: what have the successive governments been doing, for the Safety and Protection of the populace, after breaking the shackles of British Rule in 1947? Natural Calamities have always been killing the population, destroying homes and causing economic losses. Why wait for the UNISDR to prevent loss of life and of socio-economic disasters in order to move towards Sustainable Development? In contrast, do the Policy Makers, Institutions and other stakeholders implement the different International Protocols and Conventions so adhered to?

Usually, the policy makers of almost all countries do not come from the scientific world. Parliamentarians emerge because of ethnic, communal and wealth belonging. They attend to international conferences and events because of globalisation of related issues like: climate, weather, hydrology, earthquakes, etc., which are of local, cross-border and international nature. 

Shri Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India attended the Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference in 2016. The UNISDR mentions:

“Indeed, it was wonderful to hear the Indian Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi,urge participants to “embrace the spirit of Sendai” at the Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction where we also commemorated the firstever World Tsunami Awareness Day.”  

 

ROADMAP for DISASTER RISK REDUCTION-

State Government of Bihar 

It is a well-known fact, just like in other countries, that the policies and laws passed by the central government are not welcomed in the same ‘spirit’ by the 36 different state governments of India. The main reason is that the same ruling political party at the central level is not necessarily present in each of the 36 states. Sometimes they are in minority and/or in alliance with the ruling one. So, it is a question of ‘power sharing’.

However, the State Government of Bihar appears to emerge in a unique way. The Chief Minister of Bihar is Shri Nitish Kumar, Leader of the ‘Janata Dal (U) Parliamentary Party’. Shri Modi’s Party is in minority but in alliance. The CM has acquired a wide political experience at various  levels. The ‘ROADMAP for DISASTER RISK REDUCTION Government of Bihar, 2015-2030’ was published in 2016. 

This document has been produced by the professionals of the Department of Disaster Management of Bihar government under the guidance of Shri Nitish Kumar, Chief Minister. District Magistrates and Divisional Commissioners/secretaries, etc., UNICEF and NGOs have also contributed to it. 

The Roadmap of DRR Bihar stands on 5 pillars:

  1. Resilient Villages;
  2. Resilient Livelihoods;
  3. Resilient Critical Infrastructure;
  4. Resilient Basic Services and
  5. Resilient Cities. 

The Roadmap also adapts 4 Targets of Sendai FDRR 2030, namely:

‘Reduction’ of loss of lives by 75% during Natural Calamities, ‘Reduction’ of loss of lives due to transportation related disasters, ‘Reduction’ by 50% of People affected by disasters and ‘Reduction’ by 50% of economic loss. 

Loopholes and shortcomings

Hazards are Man-Made, Natural and Spatial. Natural ones cannot be controlled, but can be mitigated. Every individual has the obligation to save his/her own life, except in dangerous situations. Disaster Resilience is achievable with ‘Country-Driven Mechanisms’.

 

The Bihar State Disaster Management Authority mentions the following:

“The geo-climatic conditions of Bihar make it vulnerable to many hazards. The lives and livelihood of millions of the people residing in Bihar gets affected by various disasters from time to time. The State witnesses various types of natural and human induced disasters, like Floods, Drought, Earthquake, Fire, Cyclone (high speed winds), Road accidents, Stampede, Epidemics, Heat Waves, Cold Waves, and Landslides etc.” 

http://bsdma.org/Natural%20Hazards.aspx

'A majority of the rainfall in this region is concentrated in the 3 months of monsoon during which the flow of rivers increases up to 50 times causing floods in Bihar.'

http://bsdma.org/Home.aspx

 

Lack of Scientific Tools and Resources

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) found at Lodi Road, Delhi is one of the most well-equipped and well-organized institutions known worldwide. It has its own Satellite, Radars, Equipment and Tools of sophisticated technology spread across its territory. Besides, IMD is also the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for its neighbouring countries: Bangladesh, Maldives, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Sultanate of Oman and Thailand. Besides, I had at least 7 meetings in the different departments for learning and sharing purposes.

However, the Sub-Division of IMD located at Phulwari, Patna, Bihar, wherein there is a Doppler Weather Radar, is not mentioned in the IMD website. Moreover, this station, besides having a lack of human resources, has no website from which Weather Bulletins and Warnings can be disseminated. The questions which arise are:

  1. How can the Targets of the Roadmap, mentioned above, be fulfilled without a Radar, which is considered by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), as a ‘Critical Life-Saving-Tool’?
  2. How far the Dissemination of Warnings and Bulletins are reachable to those in need?

These are Loopholes which can frustrate the Roadmap.

After discussions, on 06-07 September 2017, with the Director-Scientist-E, Mr. Soumendu Sengupta, Deputy, Scientist-B, Mr. Anand Shankar and Meteorologist-A Mr. S.K.Ambastha, I suggested that a website is very important in the framework of Early Warning Systems (EWS). So, a model was proposed to Mr. Shankar who has the responsibility of disseminating Weather bulletins and warnings. Furthermore, I also mentioned that the missing information regarding location of the Sub-Division of Phulwari be rectified by IMD Delhi. 

 

Impact of Cyclone MORA in South Asia

The formation and evolution of Cyclone MORA (25-29 May 2017) caused disastrous impacts in the Bay of Bengal-India: Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. That Weather Event, in combination with the prevailing South-West Monsoon System caused, amongst others, humanitarian crisis ‘where some 177 people have died and 109 remain missing...Over half a million people have been affected by flooding and landslides in central and southern Sri Lanka.’, as per UN Report.

Furthermore, in Bihar, 24 persons lost their life because of Heavy Rains, Hailstorms and fallen trees before and during the passage of MORA. With winds blowing at 145 kph and Heavy Rains, at least 9 persons are reported dead, 20,000 houses destroyed in Cox’s Bazar only, trees uprooted, etc. impacted in Bangladesh, according to media sources. 

According to my short survey, inhabitants of Bihar mentioned that they were not aware of the Warning issued by the IMD. It seems that the Media-television/radio/newspapers failed in their role as Multi-Sectoral Stakeholders for pursuing the Early Warning Systems (EWS) as defined in the Framework of the WMO and the UNISDR. Doordarshan, the national television station, even released the IMD Warning only once on the crucial day, as mentioned to one presenter at a later stage. Instead, jalsas, music and entertainment appeared to prevail mostly in all tv stations.

One civil servant, working in the educational sector in Arrah, replied to my question by saying that there is no need to log on the IMD website for information/warning, as Cyclones do not prevail in Arrah, Patna, Bihar. Such stupid and irresponsible attitude is also in the minds of many rural/agricultural folks. They forget that Disasters from the Sky, Land and Oceans are rampant in India, as mentioned above. 

 

India and Deadly Floods of 08-15 August 2017

The Deadly Floods which affected India and Nepal during 08-15 August 2017 represent lessons on which the Policy Makers, Institutions and stakeholders should learn and take appropriate actions. The whole of Bihar, including other regions/states, was under dangerous flows of Rain Water and Mudslides. Railways tracks, roads, houses and infrastructure and crops were washed away by overflowing rivers which also affected thousands of people.

  

The borders of India and Nepal, around Raxaul and Biratnagar, are already vulnerable zones. Infrastructures are poorly built, roads are in a very lamentable state and sustainable development appears almost impossible. These are areas where poverty is high and life is very harsh. It is unconceivable that neither the Government of Bihar nor that of Nepal shows the sign of improvement and progress. These are regions where losses of lives and of socio-economic conditions are significant during Catastrophes. See pictures taken just a week after the Floods of August 2017.

 

India has a remarkable network of railways, metros, highways and roads. Metros are also known as Lightweight Transit Systems. This air conditioned rapid transport system comprised of 5-6 comfortable compartments, popularly known as ‘bogies’, are fitted with lights, announces and maps. It runs along massive concrete infrastructure and twin rails. Such Metros move partly overhead and/or underground or totally underground, just like the ‘Yellow Line of Delhi. So far, no accidents seem to have occurred.

 

However, the traditional Indian Railway are heavy becayse of the 12-16 ‘bogies’ and run along twin rails over the ground and bridges. They are fitted with air conditioning only on some, whose tickets are at higher rates. There is no announcement inside which can guide or help those who are travelling. Sitting facilities are limited, as the service is based on ‘first-come-first-served’. Given, the high number of travelers, the Indian Railway is always overcrowded which increases the vulnerabilities and inconveniences.

 

Indian Railways move mostly along tracks made of soil and pebbles (balasts). This may be stable in flat land and in the central areas of towns and villages. However, such tracks are highly vulnerable especially in flood prone, river bank areas and across the vast rice fields. It is mostly in such environments that the Railway Tracks are washed away during the Monsoon, Heavy Rains and Cyclones. The pictures taken in the Border of Nepal-Bihar at the end of August 2017 proves the miseries and fatalities which have been suffered by the population. The Railway Track, including roads and bridges have been severely damaged as from Jognbani to Forbesganj. The heavy iron bars of the tracks have been distorted by the flows of Monsoon Rains and Torrents of Mudslides. People, there, state that, such Flood Disasters have occurred after 70-80 years.

 

As a result, the communication with the rest of the territory was almost closed. The soil and pebbles which are the main materials forming the tracks were washed away. The bridge near Forbesganj partly collapsed as it is very old. Only light vehicles under 10 Tons could move at the reduced speed of 10 mph (see photos). This is the usual infrastructure of the whole Indian Railway System. Massive concrete infrastructure is rather acceptable and the aging trains should be removed making place for new and better ones. Losses of lives can thus be Prevented, making way for better Safety and Protection of the population.

 

One common feature in whole India is the absence of canals, drains and drainage systems, except in a few places. Arrah, the main town after Patna, Bihar State is in a very lamentable environmental condition. Garbage of all nature overload and block the meagre canals and drains carrying filthy blackish water. Refer to the pictures taken around Babu Bazaar where hotels, hospitals, pharmacies and food sellers ply their trade. Besides, colleges and a temple are nearby.

Garbage does not act in mitigating disasters. It aggravates flooding and accelerates outbreak of epidemics and water borne diseases. Such detritus are also sources of food for pigs, rats, donkeys, etc. It is also a grazing site for cows whose dignity is nullified by unscrupulous owners who behave contrary to the principles of ‘cow protection’.

 

The unruly behaviour of drivers: trucks, busses, cars, motor cycles, auto-rickshaws, carts, etc. is highly condemnable, as they violate road signs. As a result, pedestrians and other road users often fall victims of accidents and unwanted incidents.

 

The Rajasthan Institute of Public Administration (HCM RIPA) had organized a Training Programme on ‘Knowledge Management for Disaster Risk Reduction’ 10-14 July 2017. I was a guest/presenter there. Mr. Veerendra Singh Rathore, Technical Consultant (Road Safety & Enforcement), representative of the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways stated that the government will soon enforce all laws regarding road safety. By the same period, a survey report published by one media in Jaipur, Rajasthan mentioned that 60% of driving license holders have never undergone any driving test! See picture.

 

The path towards Disaster Resilience in India can be paved by solving the indiscipline on roads and by sorting out environmental garbage. These will trigger change of mindset of everyone. ‘State-Driven-Mechanisms’ are the motors behind this achievement, although it is the duty of each citizen to do so. 

 

Vulnerabilities and precarious environmental conditions, including very bad air quality, are almost rampant in whole India, including Bihar. Boat accidents and stampede result in mass deaths. So, Education, Awareness, Preparedness, Mitigation, Response, Rescue and Rehabilitation should be permanent.  .The State government of Bihar is already ahead in activating schemes related to Disaster Resilience at school, public and sectoral levels with positive results. This is an example to be followed by all other 35 states and by other countries.This will no doubt 'Reduce the Number of People Affected', as per the UNISDR Theme of 2017.

Verify its website- http://bsdma.org/Home.aspx

 

Opening of Gateway for Tourism

After realizing Disaster Resilience, Bihar State should start opening the Gateway for Tourism. Except a few hotels, there are no organized institutions, centres or agencies for encouraging tourist activities. Historical places, buildings and monuments should be listed and protected. Arts and crafts are, so far, non-existent in almost whole of the state. These activities will no doubt, apart from GDP growth, trigger the culture of resilience in face of infrastructural and environmental precarious conditions. The issue of Prevention of loss of life and of all mitigation factors mentioned above will uphold the provisions of Sendai Agreement, amongst others. Moreover, the pathway towards Sustainable Development will be enlightened.

 

Nepal and Deadly Floods of 08-15 August 2017 

Disaster Resilience in Nepal is almost in the same situation like India. The Deadly Floods of 08-15 August 2017 is another lesson to be learnt from. The Forecasters of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), located at Nagpokri, Kathmandu were able to launch the Alert of Flood as from 07 August. That was possible despite there is no Satellite data/information service for Nepal. The Footprint of ‘Fengyun-2E’ managed by Hong Kong Observatory is available with limited resources. Check it here: http://hydrology.gov.np/new/bull3/index.php/hydrology/home/main

 

Moreover, there is no Meteorological Radar for the time being, but three units are in the pipeline. The Weather Forecasters make use of Numerical Models from private sources. Nevertheless, the Sirens of River Watch and Flood Watch, during 07-15 August 2017, were activated at the right time. Unfortunately, about 70 citizens of Nepal lost their life. Houses, crops and roads of most regions were damaged by the Heavy Rains and overflowing rivers like KOSI, causing humanitarian crisis.

 

Another interesting feature is that DHM of Nepal is utilizing Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) at the level of agricultural sector. They merit encouragement and support.

 

The role of the DHM was fully discussed with the Director General, Dr. Rishi Ram Sharma who assembled his high officers on 07 August 2017 for my meeting. He requested me to coordinate with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) so that Nepal can obtain the Satellite data and services of IMD’s INSAT 3D, including others.

                                             

After my return to IMD Delhi the problem regarding Nepal was discussed, on Tuesday 29 August 2017, with Director General Dr. K.J. Ramesh and his Additional DG Dr. M. Mohapatra. They both, agreeably, requested me to inform DG Dr. R.R Sharma of Nepal to send a letter explaining the Satellite Services required. The message was duly transmitted on the following day.

        

 

The environmental and road traffic issues prevailing in India are the same in Nepal. Law and Order enforcement mechanisms are necessary for change in the mindset of the population as far as Disaster Resilience is concerned. Unfortunately, the media in both countries are not fulfilling their role according to WMO and UNISDR. 

 

The Policy Makers, Public Insitutions and Advisors/Professionals should learn the a, b, c ,d of Drainage Systems from the professionals of the Ancient Civilizations like the Mohenjo Daro and Harrapa; absorption pits, boreholes, canals, drains/drainage systems.  Lack of proper planning, forms part of accidents, economic losses and outbreak of diseases. Vertical intergration and macro-economic investments should be also earmarked for the general public who strive a lot to sustain their livelihood.

 

The President of World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Mr. David Grimes and Prof. Joseph Mukabana Director at WMO and African Ministerial Committee on Meteorology (AMCOMET) now at Adis Abeba, were informed in 2013 that 17 out of the 53 Member States of WMO Region 1 Africa do not seem to provide adequate information to their population. WMO afterwards identified 70 out of the 191 Member States which are in such position. In the present context, Nepal, including Bihar State, is in this situation. Disaster Resilience is therefore not perfect for the time being and remedies should be prioritised. 

Mauritius and Disaster Resilience

As often mentioned, in earlier articles, that the Disaster Management Centre of Mauritius is ‘Ghost-like’,Fetus-like’ and active on ‘Ad Hoc’ Basis. The situation is still the same. It has been reduced to a simple department attached to the already overloaded Ministry of Social Security, National Solidarity and Environment and Sustainable Development. Today, sustainable development demands specialized agencies/centres for appropriate adaptation and planning. A website for the centre is under construction, but is poorly maintained. Some ill-conceived sporadic simulation exercises are carried out. Awareness and education campaigns are amateurish.

However, A five-day workshop on Ecosystem Management for Effective Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation kicked off at Palms Hotel, Quatre Bornes, and culminated with the International Day for Disaster Reduction on 13th October 2017.’ Very sadly, the whole media of Mauritius did not mention about this Disaster Risk Reduction Day of 2017.

EU, IOC, France, UNISDR and other international agencies should stop financing workshops, symposiums and conferences in costly hotels. Their inputs do not yield the expected Resilience. They should change their ‘Mindset’, as suggested and challenged on various occasions. The rate of Loss of Life has reached 275% within a lapse of 5 years: 4 in 2008 and 11 in 2013. Refer to articles in this Website.

In addition, WMO and UNISDR should testify, evaluate and verify how far those who participate in local, regional and international conferences, symposiums and workshops do really implement the Knowledge so acquired. They should also make a followup of the different themes announced for marking 23rd March-World Meteorological Day and 13 October DDRR. All stakeholders must stop sleeping on their ‘laurels’, but rather move towards actions because Natural Hazards are multiplying and intensifying. No one and nothing is left spared!

The first priority of the Early Warning System (EWS) is to Prevent Loss of Life, not reduction, as often mentioned by institutions and in reports.

http://ndrrmc.govmu.org/English/Pages/default.aspx

 

Suggestions for a Safer and Disaster Resilient World

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) 2015- states the following regarding:

Priority 1: Understanding disaster risk,

National and local levels-

24. To achieve this, it is important to:

…(i) ‘Ensure the use of traditional, indigenous and local knowledge and practices, as appropriate, to complement scientific knowledge in disaster risk assessment and the development and implementation of policies, strategies, plans and programmes of specific sectors, with a cross-sectoral approach, which should be tailored to localities and to the context.’

 

Early Warning Systems and Traditional Knowledge

Traditional Knowldege is the oldest science discovered, developped and enhanced my Human Creatures. This is a very vast field of knowledge spread across almost all activities of Mankind. Today, such capacity is summarily classified as Traditional, Indigenous, Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P). As far as the identifications of Natural Calamities are concerned, creatures make use of their five Senses: eyes, nose, tongue, ears and touch. In fact, all creatures on land, in oceans and in the sky are harnessed wih such capacity. But, Mankind is endowed with an additional Faculty-the SIXTH sense.

So, droughts, heat, temperature, wind force, direction and speed, cyclones, floods, snowfalls, tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, fires, etc. can also be identified by any Human Being, who is supposed to be more capable than animals. It is a question of natural instinct, interpretation and experience.

As far as Climate, Weather and Hydrology are concerned, any Hazard related to these can be detected. Therefore, tracking of Clouds from the ground, Observations of the atmosphere and the environment, trigger lots of data and information. These can be decoded, interpreted, encoded and alerts disseminated for the Safety and Protection of every creature. Models can also be built depending on the Faculty and experience of any individual. Long, medium and short term Forecasts can also be made. These are complementary to Scientific Knowledge. There are lots of such examples stated in the more than 120 articles and over 15 videos uploaded in this website.

See one example: http://www.kanhye.com/9-climate-weather/128-enawo-3rd-cyclone-for-season-2016-2017-south-indian-ocean-forming-in-same-zone-as-predicted

   Keep watch for more.  

PKANHYE        Uploaded: Friday 13 October 2017.

Uploaded from Mauritius after returning from Study Tour in Nepal and India (12 May -06 October 2017).

 

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Read more:

LIVE TO TELL 2016- 13 OCTOBER DAY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION;

 Knowledge for Life-13 October Day for Disaster Reduction 2015;

23 MARCH WORLD METEOROLOGICAL DAY;

World Meteorological Day-23 March 2016. Minister DAYAL responsible for Environment and Disaster Management steps down today;

UNDERSTANDING CLOUDS-Theme of World Meteorological Day 23 March 2017  and others.

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