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BERGUITTA Intense Tropical Cyclone-

Tracking Along East of Mauritius-

Another 100% Perfect Prediction

 (Pl, Wait, for ASSESSMENT Report soon)

BERGUITTA Intense Tropical Cyclone is the third System of Summer Season 2017-18 of South Indian Ocean, after AVA and IRVIN. As a Moderate Tropical Storm, it threatened Rodrigues Island 13-15 January 2018. However, BERGUITTA showered graciously (52-110 mm) the drought-stricken island, as 100% Perfectly Predicted since 09 January. It is also a Phenomenon which has formed according to a change in Weather Pattern of this zone. It is highly likely to cruise along the landmass of Mauritius as from Wednesday 17 January. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has issued, at 4.30 pm Monday 15 January, Cyclone Warning Class I for Mauritius, after waiving Class III for Rodrigues. The Impacts are forecast to cause lots of material damages as Mauritius has been soaked by Heavy Rains since the New Year 2018. Besides, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is very Robust since a few days. BERGUITTA being a ‘Small-Size-System’ will, no doubt, move as from Wednesday 17 January, according to the tremendous and enhanced phase of the ACC-World Most Powerful Wind. It is Predicted to pass near the closest point at Trou-D’Eau-Douce in the East of MauritiusReunion Island too is under its ‘agenda’. DOOMSDAY?

PKANHYE.                10.11 pm MONDAY 15 JANUARY 2018.

(You are requested to read about the formation and naming of BERGUITTA before proceeding. CLICK HERE. http://www.kanhye.com/9-climate-weather/151-rodrigues-predicted-heavy-rainfalls-by-13-january-2018)

 

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) issued, at 4.30 pm Monday 15 January 2018, a Cyclone Warning Class I for Mauritius. The same Warning was re-issued at 22.10hrs: 

[[[Forecast Bulletin - Mauritius

A cyclone warning class I is in force in Mauritius

A cyclone warning class I is in force in Mauritius

Second cyclone bulletin for Mauritius issued at 2210 hours on Monday 15 January  2018.

During the last few hours Tropical cyclone Berguitta has intensified rapidly into an Intense Tropical Cyclone.

At 2200 hours, it was centered at about 550 km to the east-north-east of Mauitius, that is, in latitude 18.2 degrees south and longitude 62.5 degrees east. It is now moving towards the west-south-west at about 10 km/h. On this trajectory intense tropical cyclone Berguitta is approaching Mauritius and represents a direct threat to the island. ]]]

  

 10.11 pm MONDAY 15 JANUARY 2018.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

{{{Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) mentions today 16 January 2018 that BERGUITTA is carrying a Wind Force reaching 185 kph (100 knots) and Ocean Waves at the Height of 29 feet.

WARNING POSITION: 
160000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 61.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:

160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 29 FEET. }}}

COMMENTS

The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), the South-East Trade Winds (SETW) and the Robust Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) are contributing for the occurrence of HEAVY RAINFALLS, particularly on the drought-stricken Rodrigues. It is a Phenomenal Zone wherein all these systems undergo an Atmospheric Fusion. As a result, Extreme Weather Events take place. So, BERGUITTA is the product of such Extreme Weather Conditions-FLOODS and CYCLONE.

 

Mauritius Meteorological Services 

The MMS has issued 3 Warnings for Rodrigues-Torrential Rain, Strong Wind and High Waves and has upgraded Cyclone Warning Class II for Mauritius on Tuesday 16 January 2018: 

[[[Strong Winds Warning Bulletin 

Tue, Jan 16, 2018.

1) A torrential rain warning is in force in Rodrigues, valid until 1800 hours today Tuesday 16 January 2018.

2)A strong wind and high wave warning is in force in Rodrigues, valid until 0400 hours on Wednesday 17 January 2018.  

The combined effect of the intense tropical cyclone BERGUITTA and the anticyclone to the southeast of the Mascarenes maintains strong winds over Rodrigues

On the other hand, active cloud bands associated with BERGUITTA will continue to influence weather.

The weather will remain cloudy to overcast with intermittent rain, moderate to heavy at times with thunderstorms. There will be water accumulation in certain places and 'radiers' will be flooded. 

Also, there will be fog patches on the high grounds. The public is advised not to venture near rivers and other water courses and to be cautious on roads.

The wind will blow from the east at a mean speed of 50 km/h with gusts of the order 100 km/h. It is advised to be very cautious on roads due to cross winds and while operating in heights.

The sea will remain very rough to high with swells. The public is strongly advised not to venture at sea. ]]]

[[[Forecast Bulletin – Mauritius 

A cyclone warning class II is in force in Mauritius
A cyclone warning class II is in force in Mauritius

Third cyclone bulletin for Mauritius issued at 0410 hours on Tuesday 16 January 2018.

During the last night intense tropical cyclone Berguitta has intensified further.

At 0400 hours, it was centered at about 480 km to the east north east of Mauritius, that is, in latitude 18.2 degrees south and longitude 61.9 degrees east. It continues to move in a general west southwesterly track at about 10 km/h. On this trajectory intense tropical cyclone Berguitta is approaching Mauritius and represents a direct threat to the island. ]]]

 Updated: 9.50 am TUESDAY 16 JANUARY 2018.

 

Mauritius Meteorological Services

The MMS has issued a series of Weather and Cyclone Bulletins, both for Mauritius and Rodrigues, after Cyclone Warnings Class I and Class II and Torrential Rains, Strong Winds were released respectively since Tuesday16 January 2018. BERGUITTA has weakened thereafter and has been downgraded from Intense Tropical Cyclone to Tropical Cyclone until now it is Severe Tropical Storm. International Centres and Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC)-Météo-France-Reunion, have changed their Forecast Track. All these indicate that BERGUITTA is highly likely to move along the Eastern Zone of Mauritius. So, Cyclonic Conditions will continue to prevail until the night of Thursday 18 January 2018.

 

In order to understand the evolution and path of Cyclone BERGUITTA, it is important to know its features.

Some Features of BERGUITTA:

  • Rapid Intensification and named as Moderate Tropical Storm on Saturday13 January 2018 (although late by MMS), North-East of Rodrigues17.8 degrees South in Latitude and 64.5 degrees East in Longitude, that is at about 750 km to the  North-East of Mauritius;
  • Cyclone Warnings Class I, Class II and Class III for Rodrigues on 13 January;
  • Cyclone Warning Class III for Rodrigues on Sunday 14 January;
  • Intensification as Severe Tropical Storm on Sunday 14 January;
  • Cyclone Warning Class III waived for Rodrigues and Cyclone Warning Class I for Mauritius on and Strong Wind Warning for Rodrigues on Monday 15 January;
  • Intensification as Intense Tropical Storm on Monday 15 January;
  • Intensification as Tropical Cyclone 400 km North-East of Mauritius 15 January;
  • Cyclone Warning Class II for Mauritius and Torrential Rain Warning for Rodrigues on Tuesday 16 January;
  • Weakening and downgraded as Tropical Cyclone in afternoon on Tuesday 16 January;
  • Cyclone Warning Class III for Mauritius on Wednesday 17 January and downgraded again to Severe Tropical Storm, centered at about 220 km to the North-East of Mauritius, that is, in Latitude 18.8 degrees South and Longitude 59.3 degrees East and moving at 7 kph and 
    • Small-Size System.

 BERGUITTA V/S ITCZ+MJO+SETW+ACC

The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), the South-East Trade Winds (SETW) and the Robust Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) are contributing for the occurrence of HEAVY RAINFALLS, particularly on the drought-stricken Rodrigues. It is a Phenomenal Zone wherein all these systems undergo an Atmospheric Fusion. As a result, Extreme Weather Events take place. Besides, Reunion Island has already broken, yesterday 09 January 2018, the World Record (690 mm) in terms of Rainfalls in 6 hours with 737.2 mm of precipitations. This is Predicted, highly likely, to happen by 13 January 2018.   

Phenomenal Severe Tropical Storm BERGUITTA is on the verge of making landfall in Mauritius and eventually on Reunion during the second half of night of Wednesday 17 January 2018. All the parameters of this Cyclonic System indicate that  BERGUITTA will track along Mauritius, but on the Eastern periphery of (lucky) Reunion. Satellite Imageries and Scientific Numerical Models are almost on the consensus. However, the JTWC and Météo-France (MF), corrected Forecast Tracks, resemble each other.

But, this Website maintains the initial Predicted Track ‘Along the Eastern Coast of Mauritius at the closest point at Trou-D’Eau-Douce', as uploaded since 15 January 2018. This is based on the interactions of the ITCZ, MJO, SETW and ACC (Anti-Cyclone). The explanation is same as mentioned in the Advisories of JTWC and MF. The slow movement of 7 kph and the Intensity of Severe Tropical Storm continuing during nightfall of Wednesday17 January until Thursday 18, Friday 19 and Saturday 20 are indications of DOOMSDAY Episodes. 

 

MF: 

<<< MALGRE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ENREGISTRE AU COURS DES 24 DERNIÈRES HEURES, BERGUITTA RESTE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX QUI EST PREVU SE RAPPROCHER DE LA REUNION ET DE MAURICE EN MAINTENANT UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE. LEURS HABITANTS SONT DONC INVITES A SE TENIR REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE LA SITUATION.>>>

 

Latest Advisories of JTWC are as follows:

{{{ WTXS31 PGTW 171500.

REMARKS:

171500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 59.5E. 

TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST WITH WEAKENING BANDING FEATURES. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 170931Z 89GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE...

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEAR POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM WITH A STRONG POLEWARD FEED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET...

EASTERLIES ALOFT FROM AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST HAVE STARTED TO IMPINGE UPON THE EASTERN OUTFLOW OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AND THEREBY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE EASTERN SSTS IN THE AREA ARE ALSO WARM AROUND 28 CELSIUS...

TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A STRONG RIDGE EXTENSION PROTRUDING WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF TC 06S. THE RIDGE EXTENSION IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE

WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS GUIDING TC 06S ON A TRACK MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48...

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE AND SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY AROUND 65 KNOTS WITH MINOR FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...

SOMETIME AFTER TAU 48 A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ERODE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND SHIFT THE TRACK TO SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS... 

INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INDUCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKENING TREND. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD...

DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NARROW MARGIN OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 25 FEET. }}}

 

Supplementary Information

It is noteworthy to mention here about Climate and Weather Prediction. After returning on 06 October 2017 from my Survey Tour in India and Nepal since 12 May 2017, the following information was shared with my close friends and in the social media. I stated that:

  1. there will be no cyclone formation until end of 2017,
  2. the first Cyclone of Summer Season 2017-2018 for the Mascarene Islands will form near Rodrigues which will be affected ‘to and fro’. In addition;
  3. all cyclones will start after 15 January 2018 and
  4. Rainfalls will be will be more frequent than Cyclones. 

AVA, the first of the Summer Season formed near Madagascar, causing lots of humanitarian crises 03-05 January 2018. However, BERGUITTA took birth near Drought-Stricken Rodrigues and was named on 13 January 2018. It has been and is still influencing Rodrigues. The 100% Perfect Prediction of HEAVY RAINFALL for 13 January 2018 has been mentioned in the breaking news of KANHYE.COM since 09 January. In fact, more than 224 mm of Rains have showered Rodrigues, including Strong Winds and High Waves which are still prevailing.

Such information and Prediction were shared with JTWC in the person of Mr Patrick Hoareau whose hard and dedicated works are much laudable. I stated to him in November 2017, that Cyclones will not visit the Mascarenes until end of 2017; that Rainfalls will be more received than Cyclones. Regarding the Forecast Track of BERGUITTA, it will be along Eastern Mauritius, as mentioned above. Mauritius has been showered HEAVILY since New Year 2018 reaching 220 mm on 04 January. Reunion recorded more than 346.1 mm on same day and also breaking World Record (690 mm) in terms of Rainfalls in 6 hours with 737.2 mm of precipitations.

NB: The Weather Patterns of Season 2017-2018 have changed as compared to that of 2016-2017 and of that of previous years. Please, refer to article on Summer Season 2016-2017’, which is a Record in Medium-Term Prediction regarding Climate and Weather for South Indian Ocean. All Weather Events have been 100% Perfect Prediction in Website-http://www.kanhye.com 

CLICK TO WATCH WITH NASA

 

https://pmm.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/TRMM_News_2015/berguitta_half_hourly_imerg_12-16_january_2018.gif

https://pmm.nasa.gov/extreme-weather/imerg-reveals-rainfall-rates-tropical-cyclone-berguitta

    

Keep Watch for Updates.

PKANHYE.   Updated: 10.07 pm WEDNESDAY 17 JANUARY 2018.           

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