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FIRST Cyclonic System of 2018 for North Indian Ocean

SSW of Bay of Bengal/S of Sri Lanka.

The First Cyclonic System for North Indian Ocean is forming in the South-West of Bay of Bengal and South of Sri Lanka, since Sunday 11 March 2018. It is still a Low Pressure which is likely to evolve in a Cyclonic Storm in the coming days.

Dr M. Mohapatra, Scientist-G & Head (Services) of India Department of Meteorology (IMD), Delhi has already issued the First Alert, including Warnings for Kerala, Lakshadweep and Tamil Nadu, at 13.00 hours on Sunday 11 March 2018. See below.

<<<INFORMATORY MESSAGE No. 1

     TIME OF ISSUE: 1300 HOURS IST

     DATED: 11.03.2018 FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Sub: Low pressure area over equatorial Indian Ocean: Special bulletin for Kerala, Lakshadweep and Tamil Nadu.

Weather System

A low pressure area lies over equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal and south Sri Lanka coast. It is likely to move gradually west-northwestwards become well marked during the next 48 hrs over the Comorin area and adjoining southeast Arabian sea. It is likely to concentrate into a Depression over the southeast Arabian sea during subsequent 24 hrs.

Warning

(a) Rainfall

Rain/ thundershower at a few places on 12th and at many places on 13th March 2018 is likely over south Tamil Nadu and south Kerala. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls on 12th March and at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls on 13th and 14th March is very likely over Lakshadweep area.

(b) Wind

Squally winds speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely over Comorin area and along and off South Tamilnadu and south Kerala coasts during the next 48 hrs.

Squally winds speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is also likely over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea during 12-14th March 2018.

(c) Sea condition

Sea condition will be rough to very rough over Comorin and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hrs and over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea during 12-14th March.

(d) Fishermen warning

Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea off south Tamilnadu and adjoining south Kerala coast and equatorial Indian Ocean, Comorin area and the Gulf of Mannar area during the next 48 hrs. Fishermen are also advised not to venture into sea off south Kerala coast, Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea during 12-14th March 2018.

The next bulletin will be issued at 1300 hrs IST of 12th March, 2018.

(M. Mohapatra)

Scientist-G & Head (Services).>>>

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has identified the Low Pressure and named it 90B INVEST. See Advisories below.

{{{ ABIO10 PGTW 111800

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 1.7N 81.4E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)...

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. }}} 

Uploaded: 12.10 am SUNDAY 12 MARCH 2018. 

<<< BULLETIN NO. : 02 (ARB 01/2018)

TIME OF ISSUE: 1400 HOURS IST DATED: 13.03.2018

FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Sub: Depression over southeast Arabian Sea

The depression over southeast Arabian Sea adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean moved northnorthwestwards with a speed of about 20 kmph and lay centred at 1130 IST of today, the 13th March 2018 over southeast Arabian Sea adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean near latitude 5.50N and longitude 75.80E, about 420 km southeast of Minicoy, 350 km south-southwest of Thiruvananthapuram and 290 km east-northeast of Male (Maldives). It is very likely to move north-northwestwards and intensify into a deep depression during next 48 hrs.

Warning

(a) Rainfall

Rain/ thundershower at many places on 13th- 15th with isolated heavy falls on 13th is very likely over south Tamil Nadu. Rain/ thundershower at many places on 13th and at most places with isolated heavy falls over south Kerala on 14th and over Kerala on 15th March.

Rainfall at a few places on 13th and at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places on 14th and 15th March is very likely over Lakshadweep Islands.

(b) Wind

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is very likely over Comorin area and along and off south Tamilnadu - south Kerala coasts during the next 48 hrs and along & off Kerala coast in subsequent 24 hrs.

Squally winds speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is very likely over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea on 13th March. Wind speed will gradually increase thereafter over this region becoming 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph on 14th and 15th March 2018.

(c) Sea condition

Sea condition will be rough to very rough over Comorin-Maldives area and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hrs and over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea during 13th-15th March.

(d) Fishermen warning

Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off south Tamilnadu, Comorin-Maldives area & adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Mannar area during next 48 hrs. Fishermen are also advised not to venture into sea along & off Kerala coast, Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea during 13th -15th March 2018.

The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of 13th March, 2018.

(M. Mohapatra)

Scientist-G & Head (Services) >>>

 

As at 15 March 2018, the Tropical Depression has weakened into a Well-Marked LOW PRESSURE. However, Warnings are still valid as specified in the last and 10th Bulletin of IMD.

 

<<< BULLETIN NO. : 10 (ARB 01/2018)

TIME OF ISSUE: 0815 HOURS IST DATED: 15.03.2018

FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT.

Sub: Depression weakened into a well marked low pressure area over Lakshadweep area.

The depression over southeast Arabian Sea moved north-northwestwards and weakened into well marked low pressure area and lay over Lakshadweep and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea at 0530 hrs IST of 15th March. It is likely to move north-northwestwards and weaken gradually over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea during next 24 hours.

 

Warning

(a) Rainfall

Rain/thundershower at most places with isolated heavy falls very likely over Kerala and Lakshadweep Islands during next 24 hours. Rain/thundershower at many places with isolated heavy falls likely over coastal Karnataka during next 24 hours. Rain/thundershower at a few places very likely over south Tamil Nadu during next 24 hours.

 

(b) Wind

Squally winds speed reaching 35-45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph is very likely over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea, off south Karnataka and Kerala coasts during next 24 hours.

 

(c) Sea condition

Sea condition will be rough over Lakshadweep and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea off south Karnataka and Kerala coasts during next 12 hours.

 

(d) Fishermen warning

Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea over Lakshadweep and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea during next 12 hours.

 

This is the last bulletin for the system. However regular bulletin will continue from National Weather.

Forecasting Centre, Delhi, Meteorological Centre Bengaluru/Thruvananthapuram.

(S.D KOTAL)

Scientist-E, RSMC New Delhi.>>>

Keep Watch for 23 March 2018- World Meteorological Day.

 

PKANHYE.  Last Update: 9.57 pm THURSDAY 15 MARCH 2018.

 

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