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SAGAR (91A INVEST) in Arabian Sea- Rapid Development for

Socotra, Somalia, Ethiopia and Arabian Peninsula.

(See Updates  below)

                                         

While the Tropic of Capricorn of the Southern Indian Ocean is transiting towards the Winter Season, the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern Indian Ocean has made a leap into Summer Season 2018. Dust Storms, Heat Waves, Hailstorms, Lightning, Rains and Winds are already showing Deadly Disasters in India since 03 May 2018. These are preceding the South-West Indian Monsoon by about a month earlier than usual. Moreover, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain Iraq and Iran are experiencing Dust Storms together with 30-44 degrees Celsius of Heat.

A band of Low Pressure near the coast of Somalia and South of Socotra Island in the Arabian Sea is showing signs of Rapid Development. India Meteorological Department (IMD) identified it since 10 May 2018, while NRL identified it as 91A INVEST yesterday-14 May 2018.

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Advisories are as follows:

{{{ABIO10 PGTW 141800

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN

OCEAN/141800Z-151800ZMAY2018//

RMKS/    

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

     (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2N 57.3E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION. A 141605Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SCATTERED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LIMITED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BUT LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE REGION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-32 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...

NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS TIGHT TROUGHING OR A SMALL CIRCULATION IN THE ARABIAN SEA, AND SOME PREDICT DEVELOPMENT SOMETIME AFTER 3 DAYS AS IT PROPAGATES WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB...

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.}}}

                

The General Authority of Meteorology and Environment Protection (GAMEP) of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia issued the Weather Forecast for Tuesday 15 May 2018 expecting Rains as follows:

<<<The expected weather for the day Tuesday In Kingdom.

15-05-2018 H / 2018/05/15 G

Partially cloudy sky over the northern border and Al-Jawf may have fallen rain. Rain clouds are also expected on the Asir and Jazan heights. The horizontal visibility is also affected by the dust on the regions of eastern, Riyadh, Qassim and Madinah.>>>

 

It is noteworthy to state that Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya experienced Deadly Floods since April until May 2018. NASA states:

[[[Hundreds of thousands of people in eastern Africa have been affected by heavy rains and devastating floods in April and May, especially near the Shebelle and Jubba rivers. Originating in Ethiopia, they are Somalia’s only perennial rivers and serve as fertile plains for crop production…

Flooding burst the banks of the Shebelle River in several locations, destroying houses and crops and causing more than 120,000 people to flee their riverside homes since April 2018]]].

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=92130&eocn=home&eoci=nh

 

REMARKS- 

So, 91A INVEST is expected to develop rapidly into a Cyclone and/or a Flood Storm and move towards Somalia, Socotra Island, Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia in the coming days. Unfortunately, the meteorological service of Somalia does not appear to be active.

 Uploaded: 7.45am TUESDAY 15 MAY 2018.

 

Facts on Weather Forecasting

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) for Southern Asia, mentioned about Cyclogenesis in the Arabian Sea since 10 May 2018. However, the probability was Low-33%. The Prediction was as follows:                                                      

[[[Issued on 10.05.2018.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently located in Phase 1 with amplitude more than 1 on 10th May 2018. During week-1 it will continue to be in Phase 1 with amplitude more than 1. It will move to Phase 2 in week 2 with slightly decreasing amplitude but greater than 1...

Hence, the MJO is favourable for convective activity over Arabian Sea during week 2. The convective activity over Bay of Bengal (BoB) region will remain suppressed. There is likelihood of persistence of neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and weak La Nina conditions during week 1 & 2...

Most of the models do not show any cyclogenesis during next two weeks over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. However the ECMWF and NCUM models show formation of a low pressure system around 15th May over central parts of south Arabian Sea. It is expected to move west-northwestwards towards Yemen coast and intensify further...

However, ECMWF suggests intensification of the system into a cyclonic storm on 17th May and crossing over Yemen coast on 18th May morning. The Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) does not indicate any potential zone for cyclogenesis during week 1. The cyclogenesis probability based on genesis potential index derived from coupled GEFS MME shows 40-50% probability of cyclogenesis over southeast Arabian Sea during first half of week 1.]]] 

Furthermore, IMD mentioned the same in its Weather Bulletin of 10 May 2018:

[[[ Dated: 10 May, 2018

Current Weather Status and Outlook for next two weeks

Cyclogenesis:

o A low pressure is likely to develop over central Parts of Arabian Sea towards end of 1st week with low probability of cyclogenesis and likely to move west-northwestwards towards Yemen coast.

Next weekly update will be issued on next Thursday i.e. 17 May, 2018.]]]

 

This Bulletin was reissued by IMD on 14 May 2018.

 

By that time it seems that the Satellites of NOAA, NASA, JAXA, ESA, etc., did not track the Low Pressure in the South of Socotra Island in the Arabian Sea. So, JTWC still mentioned, on 12 May 2018, ‘No Suspect Area’ for whole of the Indian Ocean. It was at the time that Tropical Depression 04W was evolving in the North of Guam Island in Western North Pacific Ocean.

However, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) had just uploaded the Satellite Imagery of he said Low Pressure System 91A INVEST on Monday 14 May 2018. Given, that there are current interactions with JTWC, I requested Scientist P.Hoareau at 07.13 pm 14 May 2018, to check the Low Pressure in the Arabian Sea- South of Socotra and East of Somalia. He then identified it. See below.

Preabruth KanhyePl, check 91A INVEST-Socotra/Somalia. Thank you.”

 

Tropical Disturbance 91A INVEST continued to intensify, rather Rapidly. On one side, JTWC upgraded the System to Medium on 15 May and to High on 16 May until Cyclonic Storm strength reached at 8.30 am today Thursday 17 May 2018.

        

IMD on the other hand issued its Advisories for named SAGAR Cyclonic Storm in this afternoon.

[[[PRESS RELEASE-1

Time of issue: 1220 hours IST Dated: 17-05-2018.

Sub: Cyclonic Storm Sagarover Gulf of Aden

A depression formed over Gulf of Aden in the evening of yesterday, the 16th May 2018. Moving west-northwestwards it intensified into a deep depression in the early morning and further into a cyclonic storm Sagar” at 0830 hours IST of today the 17th May 2018 over Gulf of Aden near latitude 13.20N and longitude 48.70E; about 400 km east-northeast of Aden (Yemen) and 560 km west-northwest of Socotra Islands...

It is very likely to intensify slightly further during next 12 hrs. It is very likely to move initially westwards during next 12 hrs and then west-southwestwards during subsequent 24 hrs.

Maximum sustained surface wind speed (kmph) 

Category of cyclonic disturbance.

17/0830   13.2/48.7  65-75 gusting to 85  Cyclonic Storm

17/1130   13.2/48.5  65-75 gusting to 85  Cyclonic Storm

17/1730   13.0/47.6  70-80 gusting to 90  Cyclonic Storm

17/2330   12.8/47.0  70- 80 gusting to 90  Cyclonic Storm

18/0530   12.7/46.5   55-65 gusting to 75  Deep Depression

18/1730   12.5/45.2   45-55 gusting to 65  Depression.

Warning:

(i) Wind warning:

Gale winds speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph is very likely around the system centre covering Gulf of Aden and adjoining areas of westcentral and southwest Arabian Sea during the next 24 hrs and gradual decrease thereafter.

(ii) Sea condition:

Sea condition will be high around the system centre covering Gulf of Aden and adjoining areas of westcentral and southwest Arabian Sea during the next 24 hrs.

(iii) Fishermen Warning

Fishermen are advised not to venture into Gulf of Aden and adjoining areas of westcentral and southwest Arabian Sea during the next 48 hrs.]]]

           

 

The First Tropical Cyclone Advisories of JTWC was released today:

{{{WTIO31 PGTW 170300.

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002

REMARKS: 

170300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 48.6E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM EAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, ON LOW- LEVEL TURNING EVIDENT IN A 162143Z AMSR2 PASS AND A 170000Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FIX FROM PGTW...

THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE. TC 01A HAS TURNED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW FOLLOWING THE COASTAL TERRAIN...

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUOUS INFLUENCE OF THESE STEERING FEATURES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (ABOUT 30C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(10-15 KNOTS) AND A SUPPORTIVE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. A CONSTRAINED INFLOW PATTERN RESULTING FROM THE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO HALT THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND AND LEAD TO SLOW WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24.IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT SMALL DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY CHANGES DUE TO POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION...

NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 11 FEET.}}}

Updated: 10.50 pm THURSDAY 17 MAY 2018

 

Early Warning Systems and Disaster Resilience

In order to build a Disaster Resilient Society, it is imperative that Kings, Rulers, Policy Makers and Institutions introduce Country-Driven’ Mechanisms. Then, they must adopt the concept of Putting-People-First’ for the Safety and Protection of their respective population. Geostationary and Polar orbiting Satellites, Land based Radars, Meteorological Equipment, Tools and Devices are considered asLife-Saving-Tools’ (LST) in the Early Warning Systems (EWS). Crucial data and information are outsourced from these investments for the Forecasts of probable Hazards which may approach dangerously.

 

Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) are also considered as Life-Saving’ Mechanisms which are complementary to Scientific Forecasts. Besides, education, empowerment and training of the population are very important for building Disaster Resilience and for moving towards Sustainable Development.

 

Given, that our Blue Planet or Blue Marble is like a global village, there are various guidelines and documents which are freely available for implementing EWS. WMO, UNISDR, UNFCCC, WB, IMF, etc. offer such important information. Besides, there are several International Protocols and Conventions, to which each government has adhered. These are mechanisms for illuminating the pathway towards the prevention of losses of life, of material assets, of economic investments, of livelihood and for the Mitigation purposes thereof. Moreover, it also important that regional cooperation be activated for the Safety and Protection of the neighbours. Example: extension of Satellite Services/Products by IMD to Nepal DHM has been realized after my intervention on 29 August 2017.

          

It is very sad to notice that there are, unfortunately, many governments and policy makers who do not nurture Sustainable Development and Disaster Resilience. There were bands of Rain Clouds inside and outside of Cyclonic Storm SAGAR. Sea Waves generated in the Gulf of Aden were between 11-17 feet and the Sea Surface Temperature therein has been 29-32 Degrees Celsius. SAGAR has been evolving mostly along the Sea.

 

Scientist P. Hoareau of JTWC stated, following on my enquiry on19 May 10:44 am, that the Little Monster’ SAGAR was about 100 km in diameter. It means that Disasters were inevitable from the Gulf of Aden until Ethiopia wherein it dissipated on 21 May 2018. In addition, another Tropical Disturbance is intensifying in the East of Somalia, which will make landfall therein. Rains are already continuing in this North East of Africa until Kenya.

                                                            

COMMENTS

Yemen and Socotra.

Kilmia, Samha and Darsah are three main Islets forming part of Socotra Island which is under the Governate of Yemen State. The National Hydrological and Meteorological Services (NHMS) of Yemen does not appear to be active. There is no website, as such, from which Climate, Weather and Hydrology data and information that can be obtained. Besides, the aviation, shipping and fishing departments, just like the population, require Weather bulletins for the Safety and Protection of everyone. JTWC has mentioned in its Advisories about Sea Waves within the Gulf of Aden are as high as 11-17 feet. The question which may be asked is: how far the population of this country are ‘Weather Ready’ andClimate Smart’ as expected by WMO?

 

Somalia.

Somalia, which has a vast shoreline in the North and East in the Horn of Africa, is equally in the same negative position. Most of piracy activities are being carried out by part of its population in this part of the Indian Ocean in which international commerce, trading and shipping are rather the mostly undertaken than other zones. The question is: how far the coastal population is ‘Weather Ready’ and ‘Climate  Smart’ as expected by WMO and UNISDR? The policy makers of Somalia have not learnt from the Floods of April-May 2018 described by NASA, as stated above and also from previous calamities which caused damages and losses.

NB: The government of Mauritius has hosted, since a few years, a Tribunal in order to carry out trials of alleged Somalian pirates.

 

Djibouti.

Djibouti, located just inside the Gulf of Aden, does not also seem to have an active website for appropriate Weather News. Moreover, according to the Advisories of IMD and JTWC, Cyclonic Storm SAGAR has maintained a Wind Force of about 90 km/h and is forecast to make landfall on Djibouti and probably on Ethiopia soon. Djibouti also forms part of the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC/COI), just like Mauritius, Madagascar, Comoros, Reunion (including Mayotte) and Seychelles. The question again is: how far this country, including those mentioned herein, is Weather Ready’ andClimate Smart’ and is moving towards Sustainable Development?

 

Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Ethiopia and Eritrea are under the threat of SAGAR and are also devoid of NHMS.Are they Weather Ready’ andClimate Smart’?

 

Oman State.

In contrast, the Sultanate of Oman Directorate General of Meteorology (DGM) is rather well organized and appears to be an ‘Agent of Change’ and also ‘Weather Ready’ andClimate Smart’. Satellite and Radar Imageries and Weather Bulletins/Forecasts are provided satisfactorily. It should be noted that Oman forms part of the six other states: (Bangladesh, Maldives, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand), which are eligible for obtaining Advisories from IMD, in its role of Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC).

Besides, DGM released its Warning about the Low Pressure since 11 am on Wednesday 16 May 2018. See below.

<<<Day: Wednesday Date: 16th May 2018.

Report No. (1)

Arabian Sea Weather

Category: Tropical Low Pressure

Issuing time: 11 AM

Latest observations and satellite imageries showed observe of tropical low pressure area with surface wind speed 17 knots located south west of Arabian Sea near Socotra Island, at latitude 11.5oN and longitude 53.5oE. Moving westerly to northwesterly towards Adan Gulf in the coming 24 hours without any direct effect on the Sultanate.

The tropical low pressure associated with Convective clouds with chance of cloud advection and isolated rain occasionally thundershowers over Dhofar Governorate today and tomorrow. The sea state will be moderate to rough along Dhofar and Al-Wusta coastal areas with maximum wave height of 3.0 meters.

The Public Authority for Civil Aviation advices all to follow the weather bulletins and take precautions regarding wadis and flash floods, and make sure of the sea state before sailing.

God knows  

National Multi Hazard Early Warning Centre

The Directorate General of Meteorology

Public Authority for Civil Aviation.>>>

 

Kenya.

It is worthwhile to mention, at this conjecture, that the Government of Kenya has made a very laudable initiative in the direction of being ‘Weather  Ready’ andClimate Smart’ and to become an ‘Agent of Change’. Kenya has launched its first Meteorological Satellite on 11 May 2018 with the support of Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA):the first CubeSat developed under the KiboCUBE programme has been successfully deployed from the Japanese Experiment Module “Kibo” of the International Space Station. This CubeSat, named “1KUNS-PF” was developed by a team from the University of Nairobi.”    

               

Kenya Meteorological Department has issued the following for Monday 21 May 2018:

“Heavy rainfall is expected tomorrow (21st May, 2018) in parts of Western, Central and North Rift Valley, Northern and Central regions.”

 

Moreover, JTWC has signalled, since 19 May 2018, another Tropical Disturbance evolving in the East of Somalia. The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is Robust along the Tropic of Cancer. So, all the adjoining countries are requested to keep close watch on 92A INVEST, which is showing signs of intensification.

 

The First Mega and Deadly Flash Flood in Mauritius occurred on 30 March 2013. It was 100% Perfectly Predicted by me ten days beforehand. Lastly, it is also worthwhile mentioning that just two days before that Weather Disaster, I informed the WMO President Mr. David Grimes, that 17 out of the 53 WMO Region I Africa Member States do not provide adequate data and information for their respective population. Eventually, WMO Geneva released the news that in fact 70 of the 191 Members fall in this category. Besides, the second Phase of Mission India scheduled for November 2018, WMO/IPCC Mission is in the pipeline afterwards to discuss on the loopholes and shortcomings of various Members mentioned above and on scientific documents.

 

Check here:http://met.gov.om/opencms/export/sites/default/dgman/en/home 

 

Verify here: http://global.jaxa.jp/press/2018/05/20180511_.

 

See- http://satellite.imd.gov.in/img/animation3d/sanew_3d.htm 

 

Verify DUST STORM in Saudi Arabia (Source/Courtesy: EUMETSAT-Barcelona Dust):

https://twitter.com/Dust_Barcelona/status/995205033632436224

 

Keep Watch for more. 

PKANHYE.         Updated: (11.11 pm FRIDAY 18 MAY 2018) Edited: 12.55 pm MONDAY 21 MAY 2018.  

 

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Read More:

Dust Storms, Heat Waves, Thunderstorms-Phenomenal Deadly Weather Conditions Preceding 2018 Monsoon in India;

FLAMBOYAN (98S INVEST)-Near Cocos Island Very Rapid Development named by Indonesia;

First Mega/Deadly Flash Flood of 30 March 2013 in Mauritius and Judicial Enquiry ‘Cover-Up’;

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL DAY 23 MARCH 2018-Weather-Ready, Climate-Smart, etc.

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