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LOW PRESSURE (93W INVEST)

Bay of Bengal

The transition from Summer to Winter Season for the Northern Hemisphere seems to prolong. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI, evolving in the Arabian Sea, continues to cause lots of disasters both on land and in the ocean. At the same time a ‘Well-Marked Low Pressure’ is in formation in the Bay of Bengal. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a Press Release at 13.30 pm today 04 December 2017. A series of calamities are forecast for Southern India. 

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) Delhi, which is the Regional Specilized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for South Asia, issued its Advisories: 

<<PRESS RELEASE – 8

Time of issue: 1330 hours IST              Dated: 04-12-2017

Sub: (i) Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘OCKHI’ over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea

(ii) Well marked low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal.>>

A Warning Bulletin was then released, to all stakeholders, by IMD at 16.20 pm today Monday 04 December 2017:

{BULLETIN NO. : 41 (BOB 07/2017)

TIME OF ISSUE: 1620 HOURS IST                  DATED: 04.12.2017

DIRECTOR GENERAL, AIR (25843825)

PIB MOES (FAX NO. 23389042)

UNI (FAX NO. 23355841)

D.G. NATIONAL DISASTER RESPONSE FORCE (NDRF) (FAX NO. 26105912)

CHIEF ADMINISTRATOR, LAKHADWEEP ISLANDS (FAX NO. 04896-262184)

DIRECTOR, PUNCTUALITY, INDIAN RAILWAYS (FAX NO. 23388503)

CHIEF SECRETARY, GOVT. OF KARNATAKA (FAX NO. 080-22258913)

CHIEF ADMINISTRATOR, DAMAN, DIU AND DADRA NAGAR HAVELI (FAX NO. 0260-2230775)

CHIEF SECRETARY, GOVT.OF GOA (FAX NO. 0832-2415201)

CHIEF SECRETARY, GOVT.OF MAHARASHTRA (FAX NO. 022- 22028594)

CHIEF SECRETARY, GOVT.OF GUJARAT (FAX NO. 079-23250305)

CHIEF SECRETARY, GOVT. OF TAMILNADU (FAX NO. 044-25672304)

CHIEF SECRETARY, GOVT. OF ANDHRA PRADESH (FAX NO. 040-23456137)

CHIEF SECRETARY, GOVT. OF PUDUCHERRY (FAX NO. 0413-2337575)

CHIEF ADMINISTRATOR, ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS (FAX NO. 03192-232656)

CHIEF ADMINISTRATOR, GOVT. OF ODISHA (FAX NO. 0674-2536660)

Sub: (1) Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘OCKHI’ over eastcentral Arabian Sea

        (2) Well Marked low pressure area over Southeast Bay of Bengal.

 

1) Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘OCKHIover eastcentral Arabian Sea

The very severe cyclonic storm OCKHIover eastcentral Arabian Sea moved further northnortheastwards with a speed of 13 kmph during past 6 hours and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of 04th December, 2017 over eastcentral Arabian Sea near Latitude 15.2º N and Longitude 69.0º E, about 590 km southwest of Mumbai and 770 km south-southwest of Surat. It is very likely to continue to move north-northeastwards, weaken gradually and cross south Gujarat and adjoining north Maharashtra coasts near Surat as a deep depression by the night of tomorrow, the 5th December 2017.

 

Well Marked low pressure area over Southeast Bay of Bengal:

A well marked low pressure area lies over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea. It is very likely to become a depression over southeast Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours and further intensify into a deep depression during subsequent 48 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards towards north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 3 days.

Warning:

Heavy Rainfall:

Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Nicobar Islands and rainfall at many places over Andaman Islands during next 3 days

Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha on 7th and 8th December, 2017.

Wind:

Squally winds speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph on 4th, and 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph on 5th and 6th December, 2017 very likely over and around Nicobar Islands and decrease thereafter.

Sea Condition:

Sea condition would be rough to very rough during 4th to 6th December, 2017 around Nicobar Islands.

Action suggested:

Fishermen along and off Nicobar Islands are advised not to venture into sea during 4th to 6th December, 2017.

Fishermen along and off Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu coasts are advised not to venture into sea during 6th to 8th December, 2017.}

 

Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology, has also issued its Weather Bulletin at 13,30 pm on 04 December 2017:

[PRESS RELEASE – 8

Time of issue: 1330 hours IST 

Dated: 04-12-2017

Sub: (i) Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘OCKHI’ over eastcentral and                  adjoining southeast Arabian Sea

       (ii) Well marked low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal]

 

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has released its Advisories today as follows:

 

[ ABIO10 PGTW 041800 

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED

NEAR 5.7N 93.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 91.7E, APPROXIMATELY 778 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SINGAPORE...

93W REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH HIGHER VALUES TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE BAY OF BENGAL...

WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 

CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 93W WILL TRACK NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL, AND DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. ]

 PKANHYE                         9.00 pm Monday 04 December 2017.

 

Early Warning Systems

Satellites, Radars, Sensors, and Meteorological Equipment and Tools, etc., are considered as ‘Critical Life-Saving-Tools’. They are the first sources from which Scientific data and information regarding all hazards from lands, oceans and the atmosphere are identified.

 

Meteorologists and scientists who work at land-based centres and stations obtain all the data and information thereon. They decode all information thus received and make their interpretations. Forecasts and Predictions are then made and disseminated freely to everyone in need of them. These people who work individually and in teams merit all our gratitude. The main reason is that they send their Advisories, Alerts, Warnings and suggestions for the Safety and Protection of Mankind, in face of impeding Calamities. Institutions, centres and the Media: television/radio stations, newspapers, magazines and etc., have therefore the obligation to disseminate all such information which are crucial for the Prevention of Loss of Life, of Property and of Economic Wealth.

 

According to the Protocols and Conventions established by the UNISDR and WMO, all Warnings should reach those who are at risks on a Real-Time Basis. As far as Cyclones, Floods and other natural Hazards are concerned, there is a time lapse, in terms of hours and/or days before the Calamitous Event arrives at the Predicted zone. It is in this way that the Early Warning System should operate and Disaster Resilience can be developed.

            

It is noticeable that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) of Delhi, India has acted Early after the formation and evolution of 93W INVEST or the “Well Marked low pressure area over Southeast Bay of Bengal”. This Alert seems to be explained by the fact that Very Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI aroused lots of panic and confusion both at the population and stakeholders levels. Losses of lives, of property and of economic wealth have been very considerable. Besides, 400 fishermen and others are still missing since 01 December 2017.

 

IMD released a Warning Bulletin to the different stakeholders concerned at 16.20 hours on Monday 04 December 2017, as stated above.

The latest Bulletin, including the Forecast Track, regarding the Topical Disturbance was issued at 13.00 hours on 08 December 2017.

<<PRESS RELEASE – 12 

Time of issue: 1300 hours IST

Dated: 08-12-2017

Sub: Deep Depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal

Yesterday’s Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved north-northwestwards, intensified into a Deep Depression in the early morning of today. It lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 08th December, 2017 over westcentral Bay of Bengal near Latitude 15.0 ºN and Longitude 86.8 ºE, about 510 km south-southeast of Gopalpur and 610 km eastsoutheast of Machilipatnam. It is likely to maintain intensity of deep depression for about 12 hrs and weaken gradually into a depression during subsequent 12 hrs. The system is very likely to move north-northwestwards and reach north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts around 9th December morning as a depression.

Warning:

(i) Heavy Rainfall:

Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over north Andhra Pradesh (Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram, Srikakulam districts) during next 24 hrs, over coastal and adjoining interior districts of Odisha during 8th to 9th , over north coastal Odisha and adjoining districts of interior Odisha on 10th and over coastal districts of West Bengal during 8th to 10th.

Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over south Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura during 9th to 11th December 2017.

(ii) Wind:

Squally winds speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph very likely to prevail along and off south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hours, along and off north Andhra Pradesh Odisha and West Bengal coasts during next 36 hrs.

(iii) Sea Condition:

Sea condition would be rough to very rough along and off south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hours, along and off north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coasts during next 36 hrs.

(iv) Action suggested:

Fishermen along and off south Andhra Pradesh coast are advised not to venture into sea during next 24 hours, along and off north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coasts are advised not to venture into sea during next 36 hrs.

The system is under constant surveillance & concerned State Govts. are kept informed.>>

 

 

Another Press Release of 8th December 2017 was as follows:

 <<An active Western Disturbance is likely to affect northwest India from 10th to 13th December with peak activity on 11th & 12th December 2017. In association with this system an induced cyclonic circulation is likely to form over West Rajasthan and neighbourhood. Moisture incursion will also take place over the region from Arabian Sea. In association with the above systems, the details of expected weather & warning are given below:

Weather forecast for northwest India:

 Widespread rainfall/snowfall activity is very likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on 11th & 12th and scattered rainfall /snowfall activity on 13th December.

 Widespread Rain/Thundershower activity is very likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Rajasthan on 11th and scattered rainfall on 12th December.

 Isolated to scattered rainfall / thundershower activity very likely over Uttar Pradesh on 11th and 12th December.

Warnings:

 Isolated Heavy rain /snowfall very likely over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh on 11th and 12th December.

 Isolated Heavy rain /snowfall very likely over higher reaches of Uttarakhand on 12th December.

 Isolated Heavy rain very likely over northern parts of Punjab and Haryana & Chandigarh on 11th December.

 Isolated Heavy rain very likely over Uttarakhand on 12th December.

Weather forecast for Delhi & NCR

 Light to moderate Rain / Thundershowers very likely over Delhi and NCR during 11th Evening to 12th December.

Temperatures:

There will be temporary rise in minimum temperatures during 9-12 December and fall in maximum temperatures very likely over northwest India during 11-13 December. The minimum temperatures are very likely to fall significantly from 13th December onwards. Cold day condition is likely on 11th &12th and cold wave conditions during 13th - 16th December 2017 over some parts of northwest India.

 

<<All India Weather Warning Bulletin Saturday 09 December 2017:

Time of Issue: 1730 hours IST .          

09 December (Day 1):

Heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places very likely over coastal areas of West Bengal and heavy at isolated places over south Assam & Meghalaya and Mizoram & Tripura.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 gusting to 65 kmph along & off north Odisha and West Bengal coasts and 40-50 gusting to 60 kmph along & off south Odisha coast.

Sea conditions are very likely to be very rough along & off north Odisha and West Bengal coasts and rough along and off south Odisha coast.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into Sea along & off Odisha and West Bengal coasts.>>   

 

[[PRESS RELEASE - 14

Time of issue: 1400 hours IST Dated: 10-12-2017

Sub: Low Pressure Area over northwest Bay of Bengal

Yesterday’s Depression over northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB) moved northnortheastwards and weakened into a well marked low pressure area over northwest BoB in the same evening i.e. 09th December, 2017. It lay as a low pressure area over northwest BoB at 0830 hours IST of today, the 10th December.

Under it’s influence, light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls occurred over coastal Odisha and adjoining districts of interior Odisha on 8th. Light to moderate rainfall also occurred at many places over coastal districts of West Bengal, south Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura with isolated heavy falls over Tripura on 9th.

Past 24 hour cumulative rainfall (≥ 5 cm) ending at 0830 hours IST of date:

9 December, 2017

Odisha: Kakatpur- 12 cm, Gop- 11 cm; Paradeep, Puri & Astaranga -10 cm each, Balikuda & Kujanga -9 cm each; Niali -8 cm; Satyabadi & Tirtol- 7 cm each; Alipingal, Krishnaprasad, Nimpara & Jagatsinghpur - 6 cm each; Marsaghai, Derabis, Raghunathpur & Pipili - 5 cm each.

10 December, 2017

Assam: Karimganj & Amraghat-5 cm each.

Mizoram: Serchip – 6 cm.

Tripura: Kailashahar -7 cm, Arundhutinagar & Gokulpur-5 cm each.

This is last update for this system.]]

 

NB:

  •  JTWC renamed 93W INVEST as 92B INVEST on 07 December 2017;
  •   ‘Well-Marked Low Pressure’ (92B INVEST) intensified into a ‘Deep Depression’ on 08 December;
  •   It weakened as a Low Pressure on 09 December and  
  •   It did not make any landfall and dissipated in North-West Bay of Bengal showering Rains as mentioned above.
  • There are no apparent reports on damages or of loss of life.                                     

           CLICK to Watch Live with IMD Delhi                 WATCH VIDEOS                  

Keep Watch.

PKANHYE                 25 DECEMBER 2017  (Christmas).

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