Sunday, 18 February 2018

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Watch ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017) South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

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91S INVEST-East South-East of Diego Garcia-

Intensifying soon as Cyclonic System

CEBILE Named: Very Rapid Development As Intense Tropical Cyclone 

                    

The Summer Season 2017-2018 of the South Indian Ocean continues to prevail in a dynamic way. Series of Tropical Disturbances, Depressions and Cyclones: AVAIRVIN, BERGUITTA coupled with Extreme, Heavy and Light Rains are influencing calamitously, since New Year 2018, Madagascar, Reunion, Mauritius and Rodrigues. There is no doubt that the Weather Patterns of this zone have altered as compared to preceding years. The Dynamics of Climate, Weather and Hydrology are crystal clear during the Summer Season 2017-2018.

After the Torrential Rains of 24-25 January 2018 in Mauritius, another Tropical Disturbance has taken birth. 91S INVEST, “NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 82.1E, APPROXIMATELY 585NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA”, is in the ‘pipeline’. 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has identified another Tropical Disturbance since 24 January 2018. After showing slow intensification from Low, Medium and now High, 91S INVEST is forecast to be upgraded as Moderate Tropical Storm CEBILE soon. 

{{{WTXS21 PGTW 260130.

REMARKS:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 80.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 82.1E, APPROXIMATELY 585NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA...

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS PREDICT 91S REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STORM TRAVELS TO THE SOUTHEAST...

IF NOT, DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE LATER TAUS AFTER 91S ROUNDS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB...

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. }}}

     

Météo-France

Météo-France has released the information on Cyclogenesis in the Talweg de Mousson (TM)-Monsoon Trough located in the East of Southern Indian Ocean. MF named the System as 05/20172018

<<<AWIO21 FMEE 260929 

LE 26/01/2018 A 1200 UTC

Perturbation tropicale 05/20172018 à l'est du TM:

Une circulation dépressionnaire allongée peut être estimée vers 10.2S/82.5E au sein du TM. Cette circulation est en train de se contracter et la passe ASCAT de 0357UTC permet d'avoir une estimation partielle de cette circulation présentant pour le moment des vents de l'ordre de 20kt, atteignant 25kt dans l'alimentation de mousson…

La pression au centre est analysée par la majorité des modèles déterministes à environ 1000hPa

Avec un déplacement vers l'est-sud-est, le système devrait rencontrer des conditions plus favorables avec la disparition du cisaillement et la persistence d'une bonne divergence d'altitude. L'ensemble des modèles déterministes et ensemblistes disponibles proposent alors un signal de cyclogenèse significatif pour Dimanche à propos de cette perturbation tropicale...

Le risque de formation d'une tempête tropicale modérée au sein du talweg de mousson sur l'extrême Est du bassin devient important Samedi et très important Dimanche.>>>

  Uploaded: 3.05 pm FRIDAY 26 JANUARY 2018. 

 

Mauritius Meteorological Services

The Mauritius Meteorological Services mentioned about the Tropical Disturbance-91S INVEST as ‘Supplementary Information in its Forecast Bulletin of 11.30 am Saturday 27 January 2018.

 

NB: JWTC already mentioned intensification of 91S INVEST at 01.30 hrs on Friday 26 January 2018-UTC (that is Mauritian-Time was 5.30 am Friday 26 January). The lateness in updating information by MMS, just like during AVA, IRVIN and BERGUITTA, continues.

Furthermore, JTWC mentioned: 'GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS PREDICT 91S REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.' Refer to Advisories above. So, obsolescence and unprofessionalism in the application of Early Warning Systems (EWS) still prevails.

 

[[[Forecast Bulletin – Mauritius

WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 11H30 THIS SATURDAY 27 JANUARY 2018.

GENERAL SITUATION:
A light to moderate and relatively warm airstream is flowing over our region.

FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS:

Fair over the whole island in the afternoon. However there will be cloud developments mainly to the West and over the western part of the Central Plateau with localised showers...

Sea moderate beyond the reefs with Southerly swells...

SUPPLEMENTARY INFO:

At 10h00, the tropical disturbance which was evolving far to the East-South-East of Diego-Garcia has intensified into a tropical depression. It is evolving in a favourable environment to intensify further. It is moving towards the East-South-
East at a speed of 10 km/h and is evolving at a distance of 2900 km to the North-East of Mauritius.

With the information available, it will not represent a threat for the mascarenes islands.]]] 

 

The MMS then updated at 16.30 hrs Saturday 27 January 2018. Unfortunately, the MMS resists in stating, wrongfully, that the Tropical Depression it will not be a threat for the Mascarenes Islands’. Such recurrent blunders have been causing panic when Cyclone Warnings were waived and then re-published soon afterwards.

 

[[[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 16H30 THIS SATURDAY 27 JANUARY 2018.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFO:

At 16h00, the tropical depression was evolving very far at about 2880 km to the North-East of Mauritius...

It is evolving in a favourable environment to intensify further. It is moving in an East-South-East direction at about 10 km/h.

With the information available, it will not be a threat for the Mascarenes Islands.]]] 

  

Updated: 5.56 pm SATURDAY 27 JANUARY 2018.

 

Météo -France

Météo -France-Réunion, which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for South-West Indian Ocean, already indicated the intensification of 5/20172018 (91S INVEST) in its Advisories of 27 January 2018.  

<<< WTIO31 FMEE 271227

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/5/20172018

1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 5…

12H: 28/01/2018 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

24H: 28/01/2018 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

36H: 29/01/2018 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

48H: 29/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

60H: 30/01/2018 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

 

72H: 30/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. >>>

        

 

Mauritius Meteorological Services

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) is once more very late in naming 91S INVEST, which was already intensifying since 5.30 am on Saturday 27 January. The MMS named it as Moderate Tropical Storm CEBILEDuring the night’. At 4.00 hours Sunday 28 January it was upgraded to CEBILE Severe Tropical Storm.

The MMS is unable to keep pace with the Dynamics of Weather in the South Indian Ocean. Besides, the Amateurs of MMS are not attuned to the Advisories and Warnings released by JTWC, which is the First International Centre mandated for the tracking of Climate and Weather issues. Moreover, they are not complying with the Advisories of Météo-France which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for South-West Indian Ocean.

 

It should be noted that Cyclone Warning Class I and II were issued for Rodrigues before BERGUITTA was named by the MMS on 13 January 2018.

 

In addition, the Forecast Track drawn by MMS already indicates the CEBILE Tropical Cyclone appears to be Larger, Stronger and more Disastrous than AVA, IRVIN and BERGUITTA. Moreover, it is likely to move towards Rodrigues Island. Yet, the MMS continues to mention that Based on available information, 'CEBILE' will not be a threat to the Mascarene Islands’.

 

[[[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 04H30 THIS SUNDAY 28 JANUARY 2018.

GENERAL SITUATION

Supplementary information:
During the night, the tropical depression intensified into a moderate tropical storm and was named "CEBILE" by the Mauritius Meteorological Services.

The moderate tropical storm CEBILE was evolving in a favorable environment for further intensification.

At 0400, the moderate tropical storm 'CEBILE' intensified into a severe tropical storm and was centered around the point 12.5 degrees South in latitude and 84.8 degrees East in longitude, that is at a distance of 3100 km almost to the North-East of Mauritius. It is moving in a general Southerly direction at a speed of 10 km/h.

Based on available information, 'CEBILE' will not be a threat to the Mascarene Islands. ]]]

 

Now, the MMS has mentioned in its Weather Bulletin issued at 11.35 am 28 January 2018 that the System has intensified as CELIBE Tropical Cyclone.

[[[ WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 11H35 THIS SUNDAY 28 JANUARY 2018.

Supplemantary info:

Durintg the last hours,the severe tropical storm 'CEBILE' has intensify into a tropical cyclone.At 10h00, the tropical cyclone 'CEBILE' was centred around the point 13.2 degrees south in latitude and 84.0 degrees east in longitude.

'CEBILE' is  moving in a general  south-south-westerly direction at about 10 km/h.

Based on information available,'CEBILE will not be a threat to the mascarenes islands ]]]

 

The Status was upgraded to CEBILE Intense Tropical Cyclone at 16.35hrs. on Sunday 28 January 2018.

[[[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 16H35 THIS SUNDAY 28 JANUARY 2018.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFO:

The tropical cyclone 'CEBILE' has intensified further into an intense tropical cyclone. At 16h00, the intense tropical cyclone 'CEBILE' was centered around the point 13.8 degrees South in latitude and 83.2 degrees East in longitude. 'CEBILE' is moving in a general south-south-westerly direction at about 12 km/h.

Based on the available information, 'CEBILE' will not be a threat for the Mascarene Islands. ]]]

                 

COMMENTS:

It is very regrettable that the Mauritius Broadcasting Corporation (MBC) which is the National Television Station, did not mention about the Tropical Cyclone CEBILE during its 12.00hrs Midday news today Sunday 28 January 2018. However, one Private Radio Station mentioned, around 12.15 hrs, about CELIBE, but read out the obsolete Weather News mentioning Severe Tropical Storm. This tendency continues until now.

 

All these are Alarmingly Unprofessional on behalf of the Media and these are also contrary to the Spirit of Early Warning Systems. Cyclones do not only mean trees and leaves falling. There are many Aqua-Fishing Farms around the lagoons of Mauritius and Rodrigues. Moreover, there are other investments in Ocean Economy, including traditional fishing. Besides, there are lots of vessels-cargo and/or ferries navigating around the seas of this region, including Air Traffic. So, Meteorology should be at its highest professionalism. The JTWC has already mentioned Sea Waves reaching 35 ft in the cyclonic zone.

 

Disaster Resilience is Remote for Mauritius and for many countries like India, Nepal, as mentioned in previous articles. Distortion, omission and censorship practiced by the media-tv, radio and newspapers are contrary to the principles and spirit of Early Warning Systems. Refer to article-OCKHI Severe Cyclonic Storm (India).

The WMO and UNISDR are solemnly requested to enquire on this crucial issue and take the necessary actions against the MMS and the Media.

        

 

The latest Advisories of JTWC are as follows:

{{{WTXS31 PGTW 281500

REMARKS:

281500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 82.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 741 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND HAS DEVELOPED A 15-NM RAGGED EYE...

HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS STILL UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) NORTHERLY VWS CAUSING THE EYE TO BE TILTED FROM THE LLCC...

TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, STEERED BY THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS VWS DECREASES AND GOOD OUTFLOW PERSISTS...

AFTER TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW DOWN, POSSIBLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS A SECONDARY STR TO THE SOUTHWEST COMPETES FOR STEERING. THE STR TO THE EAST WILL EVENTUALLY DOMINATE AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD...

TC CEBILE WILL PEAK AT 125 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 36-48 BEFORE VWS BEGINS TO RE-INTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TO MID TERM BUT SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 25 FEET.}}}

          

Traditional Knowledge Applied

Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) are complementary to Scientific Knowledge in forecasting Natural Calamities. Observations of the Atmosphere and of Clouds from the Ground indicate oncoming Weather Disasters: Heavy Rains, Floods, Cyclones, Droughts and others. Refer to the 2 pictures taken while observations were carried out before the Torrential Rain Warning of 25-26 January 2018 and of Intense Tropical Cyclone CEBILE currently evolving.That is why this was shared with Scientist P.Hoareau of JTWC, by mentioning that the picture indicates that the Tropical Disturbance 91S INVEST has all the potential of developing into a Tropical Cyclone. 

 

NB: Other episodes of Extreme Weather Events: Floods and Cyclones are Predicted until April 2018 for the Southern Indian Ocean. These are related to the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon Systems (SWIOMS). DOOMSDAYs have revived again. So, keep watch.

   

Uploaded: 10.15 pm SUNDAY 28 JANUARY 2018.

 

Disaster Resilience Remote in Mauritius

CEBILE located at 1700 km from Rodrigues on 04 February 2018, is moving South-Easterly. From the status of Intense Tropical Cyclone, CEBILE has downgraded to Tropical Cyclone with another upgrading. Finally, it has weakened into Severe Tropical Storm. Luckily, it moving farther away from the Mascarene land masses.

 

However, there have been a series of drownings and at least 6 losses of life in Mauritius since 31 January to 02 February 2018. While some persons have explained, through local media, that High Waves are the causes, because of the impacts of the Super Moon which also underwent Eclipse on 31 January. Even a pleasure craft capsized topsy-turvy on 04 February by some boisterous waves near Flat Island in the North of Mauritius. Rescue operations carried out by the Coast Guards, luckily, saved the lives all 5 by late afternoon. 

 

Almost the same misfortunes occurred during the passing of Intense Tropical Cyclone ENAWO while it was making landfall in Madagascar in March 2017.

 

The plausible clarification may be attributed to the combination of the following:

  1. the 60NM Eye of Intense Tropical Cyclone CEBILE generated 35 Feet of Wave Height around the Weather System. The Energy thus released should have scattered towards the shores of Mauritius and 
  2. the Robust Anti-Cyclone, here mentioned as the Antarctic Circumpolar (ACC), triggered a High Ridge of Pressure generating Dangerous High Waves. JTWC mentioned Wave Heights 20-35 Feet. 

See Animation here: 

 https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache.07SCEBILE.100kts-959mb-157S-808E.100pc.gif 

The Disaster Management Center did not, as usual, wake up in view of educating the populace in preventing any loss of life. As stated so many times, it is still ‘Ghost-like’, ‘Fetus-like’, ‘Reactive’ and ‘Ad-hoc-basis’. The public continues to undergo panic each time Weather Systems prevail in this country. It is to be noted that when the Policy Makers are Part-Timers’ and Amateurs’, they do not become Agents-of-Change’,, as entrenched in the several International Conventions and Protocols.

So, Disaster Resilience becomes Remote and Sustainable Development undergoes total failure. There is no doubt that Disaster Resilience is the 'Wealth of the Nation'.

 

NB: The Disaster Management Centre of Mauritius is a simple department under the amateurship of the Ministry of Environment, instead of operating as a specialized and separate agency. Besides, the Minister of Environment, Hon. Sinatambou triggered lots of controversies after he ill-treated the cyclone refugees (4,033) during the passing of Intense Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA.


There are more than four dozen Telephone Calls, E-mails, Letters, Correspondences, Alerts and Documents which have been made, published and submitted to the Policy Makers, Institutions (public/private), International Funding Agencies, NGOs, Colleges, etc. and to the local Media during the last two Decades. The Aims and Objectives have been geared towards sensitizing the stakeholders in view of building a Disaster Resilient Society of Mauritius. Here are just a few of such crucial and precious Actions undertaken by my 'Cheval de Bataille'.

 

 Uploaded 10.47 am 05 FEBRUARY 2018.      

CEBILE IT/Cyclone- Phenomenon and Long Lifespan. 

CEBILE, the fourth System for Season 2017-2018 of the South Indian Ocean, seems to have a long life. Besides, it is Phenomenon as it developed and Abnormal Eye Feature attaining a 60 Nautical Miles (< 110km) in diameter. It was born as a Low Pressure/Tropical Disturbance (91S INVEST) since 24 January 2018. During interaction with JTWC, I indicated that Atmospheric observations from the Ground of Mauritius indicate that 91S INVEST has all the potential to develop into a Cyclone (See picture). 91S INVEST was baptized, although very late, by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) on Sunday 28 January.

CEBILE has had a very rapid development into Intense Tropical Cyclone. Luckily, it evolved in the open Central-South Indian Ocean and has not made any landfall, as there is no land mass around. However, it was apprehended to track near Rodrigues Island, reaching almost near 1375 km from the East.

The Advisories of JTWC dated 04 February may be considered as an indication of the ultimate change into a different Track which appears to be a safe mode for land interaction.

 

JTWC Advisories in Brief (final)

{{{WTXS31 PGTW 040300

REMARKS:

040300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 79.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 848 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...

THE LATEST AMSU CROSS SECTION FROM 032159Z INDICATES A SHARP WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE...WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE...

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KNOTS...ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE OUTFLOW HAS RELAXED, PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND SHIPS ANALYSIS INDICATES VWS VALUES ARE OVER 30 KNOTS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EIR DEPICTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NOW A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS...

TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD... THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO A SOUTHERLY TRACK. HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN A WESTERN DEFLECTION...

DYNAMICAL MODELS FAVOR A SLOW DISSIPATION...AND 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS ALONG TRACK WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RAPID DISSIPATION SCENARIO INDICATED BY SHIPS...

THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY TAU 96...LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 22 FEET.}}}

 

{{{WTXS31 PGTW 060300  

REMARKS:

060300Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 81.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1212 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...

ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ASYMMETRIC TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS STRONGLY SHEARED FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN A RATHER STEADY-STATE STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST DAY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...

TC 07S CONTINUES TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS IT IS STEERED AROUND AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS. ALTHOUGH THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE, DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST ON THIS TURN AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TOWARD THE SOUTH AROUND TAU 12 TO 24...

NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS STRONG (APPROXIMATELY 40 KNOTS), WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 DEGREES C), SUGGESTING THAT THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION BY AROUND TAU 48...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 14 FEET. }}} 

 

WATCH also the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) which is Currently Triggering Locailzed Floods and Heavy Rains in Mauritius.

                                                                                    

  Keep watch for more.                                                    

PKANHYE.   07 WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 2018.

 

Follow me on   & Videos.

Read more:

South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System-Torrential Rain-Another Perfect Prediction;

BERGUITTA Intense Tropical Cyclone- Tracking Along East of Mauritius-Another 100% Perfect Prediction;

Rodrigues- Predicted Heavy Rainfalls by 13 January 2018: 97S INVEST- (BERGUITTA named)- 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

99S INVEST (CEBILE Failed to Form) in Mozambique Channel, etc.

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