Friday, 21 September 2018

WATCH ALL VIDEOS HERE   

         

Watch LIVE ICJ CHAGOS Rights & DECOLONIZATION

 KERALA FLOODS

  13-20 August 2018  

     Kilauea Hawaii     

   

World Met/Day-23 March 2018 ‘Weather Ready-Climate Smart

Thunderbolts Without Rain Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017)

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

 ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017)  South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

   

      Watch MMS LIVE

 

 

 

 

CARLOS Tropical Cyclone

(04-07) February 2017- S-W Indian Ocean,

another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 

DINEO-Cyclone  Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

   

 

 

 

FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS- January 2017.

 

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

 

LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 Sep. 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

 

 LIVE from UN 71st Session  Speech of Sir Anerod Jugnauth PM of Mauritius.

 

 

 

 

 

SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atl/Ocean to SE Indian Ocean-01 September 2016. 

 

 

 

 

THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and

Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 

BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016

   Mission in Mauritius.

 

 

Part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 

 

Animation of CYCLONE FANTALA

      Live with NOAA.

 

 

 

 

 

Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN  10-13 February 2016: South-West Indian Ocean

 

 

 

 

WMO Video 23 March-World Meteorological Day 2016

 

 

  

 

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

 

  

 

 Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

 

 

 

 Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

  

 

 

 

CLICK HERE TO WATCH

     ALL VIDEOS 

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South-West Asian Monsoon 2018 Early Onset 

WMO Salutes IMD

   (See Final Update)

The South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) has officially started as from today Tuesday 29 May 2018. It is interesting to say that the Atmospheric Conditions of the recent weeks have been marked by Heat Waves, Thunderstorms, Lightning, Hailstones and Dust Storms. These have been Deadly with at least 150 losses of lives, lots of destructions and damages across India. Deadly Severe Cyclonic Storm SAGAR (17-21 May 2018) along the Gulf of Aden and Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm MEKUNU (18-26 May 2018), very rare in the Arabian Sea, have proved that Climate, Weather and Hydrology patterns have altered considerably in whole Indian Ocean. Like-wise the South-West Asian Monsoon System has made an early entry, just like last years’ onset on 30 May 2017, contrary to previous years. The same was mentioned in articles on SAGAR and MEKUNU in this Website. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has mentioned the 2018 Monsoon Onset from Kerala region as from 29 May.

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MEKUNU Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (92A INVEST)

Very Rapid Intensification Threatening Directly

Horn of Africa, Socotra, Oman, Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

(Final UPDATE below. Pl, be patient. )

    

The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) of the Northern Indian Ocean along the Tropic of Cancer is evolving in an enhanced phase. Hardly has SAGAR Cyclonic Storm (17-21 May 2018) made landfall in Northern Somalia and Ethiopia, 92A INVEST has formed since 18 May 2018. This Tropical Disturbance is highly likely to intensify into a Tropical Depression/Deep Depression very rapidly and be named probably today as MEKUNU. Eventually, it is forecast to be upgraded to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm very early. The Atmospheric Conditions in the Zone of Arabian Sea reaching 310 Celsius and of the adjoining landmass (Oman) 40-42 degrees Celsius are conducive for the evolution of a Stronger Storm than the previous one. Horn of Africa, Socotra, Yemen, Oman and Saudi Arabia all fall along the JTWC Forecast Track. So, the Meteorological Services and population of these countries should keep constant watch and be Prepared for Calamitous Conditions.

No doubt, this will influence the South-West Asian Monsoon whose onset is Predicted, by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to take place earlier than 01 June 2018.

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SAGAR (91A INVEST) in Arabian Sea- Rapid Development for

Socotra, Somalia, Ethiopia and Arabian Peninsula.

(See Updates  below)

                                         

While the Tropic of Capricorn of the Southern Indian Ocean is transiting towards the Winter Season, the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern Indian Ocean has made a leap into Summer Season 2018. Dust Storms, Heat Waves, Hailstorms, Lightning, Rains and Winds are already showing Deadly Disasters in India since 03 May 2018. These are preceding the South-West Indian Monsoon by about a month earlier than usual. Moreover, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain Iraq and Iran are experiencing Dust Storms together with 30-44 degrees Celsius of Heat.

A band of Low Pressure near the coast of Somalia and South of Socotra Island in the Arabian Sea is showing signs of Rapid Development. India Meteorological Department (IMD) identified it since 10 May 2018, while NRL identified it as 91A INVEST yesterday-14 May 2018.

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Dust Storms, Heat Waves, Thunderstorms and Strong Winds-

Phenomenal Deadly Weather Conditions Preceding

2018 Monsoon in India

         

Almost whole of India is experiencing Extreme and Deadly Weather Conditions since the beginning of May 2018. Dust Storms transporting sand particles and combination of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane and a lot of air pollutants have invaded the Indian Sub-continent from mostly the Arabian Peninsula. Heat Waves, Hailstones, Thunder, Lightning, Rains have caused losses of more than 150 lives, including hundreds of injured people and material damages, have been reported by the local media. Houses have been damaged by Strong Winds, falling trees, service poles, mudslides and Rains. In fact, the 2018 South-West Monsoon System for India is forecast to start as from end of May, as per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Delhi.

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FLAMBOYAN (98S INVEST)-Near Cocos Island Very Rapid Development into

Tropical Cyclone named by Indonesia BMKG

After Phenomenal and Disastrous Severe Tropical Storm FAKIR (93S INVEST) and dissipation of 96S INVEST, another Tropical Disturbance 98 S INVEST is in the pipeline. Located in East of Southern Indian Ocean at Latitude 8.00 South and Longitude 94.60 East, it is evolving near Cocos Island. However, Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) whose Area of Responsibility is along Longitude 900 East to 1600 East has not mentioned any Tropical Disturbance so far. ABOM is also the Regional Special Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of this zone and is mandated to issue Advisories for the its Member States.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/?ref=ftr

Nevertheless, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has been identifying a Tropical Disturbance 98 S INVEST since Thursday 26 April 2018. As at today JTWC has upgraded the Weather System from Low to Medium and High. In its Advisories JTWC has mentioned “This system is expected to reach 35knots within the next 24hours and be numbered TC 21S by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

PKANHYE.    Uploaded: 12.12 pm SATURDAY 28 APRIL 2018.

 

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93S INVEST-FAKIR 7th Cyclone

Preceded by HEAVY RAINFALLS Extending

South West Indian Ocean Season 2017-2018

(Pl, wait for updates)

     

Summer Season 2017-2018 for the South-West Indian Ocean seems to extend until May 2018. Regional and International Centres are indicating the probable formation of Cyclone 'FAKIR' and HEAVY RAINS approaching along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Atmospheric Conditions observed from the Ground of Mauritius, show the same Weather Systems. The South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) is still active. The Heavy Rain Warning issued by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) today 21 April 2018 demands review and further Dynamic Forecasts.

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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL DAY 23 MARCH 2018

‘Weather-Ready, Climate-Smart’

      

The International Meteorological Organisation (IMO) was founded in 1873. It changed to World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on 23 March 1950. One year later, that is, in 1951 WMO became a specialized agency of the United Nations Organisation for meteorology (climate and weather), hydrology (water related issues) and geophysical sciences (environmental issues, etc.). Today, there are 191 Countries world-wide which constitute member states of WMO. The latter has classified these in six regions.

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FIRST Cyclonic System of 2018 for North Indian Ocean

SSW of Bay of Bengal/S of Sri Lanka.

The First Cyclonic System for North Indian Ocean is forming in the South-West of Bay of Bengal and South of Sri Lanka, since Sunday 11 March 2018. It is still a Low Pressure which is likely to evolve in a Cyclonic Storm in the coming days.

Dr M. Mohapatra, Scientist-G & Head (Services) of India Department of Meteorology (IMD), Delhi has already issued the First Alert, including Warnings for Kerala, Lakshadweep and Tamil Nadu, at 13.00 hours on Sunday 11 March 2018. See below.

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ELIAKIM (99S INVEST) Approaching Speedily

Followed by another FLOOD STORM 

To mark 50th Anniversary of Mauritian Independence. 

Another 100% Perfect Prediction

(See Updates below) 

  

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for the Southern Indian Ocean continues to prevail dynamically with a different pattern than previous years. AVA (03-07 January 2018) and BERGUITTA (13-17 January 2018) Tropical Cyclones took birth in Central-Southern Indian Ocean. Contrarily, the Eastern Zone saw IRVIN (06-10 January 2018) escaping from Australia, in the Eastern Area, followed by CEBILE (28 January-06 February 2018). The 5th Cyclone DUMAZILE (03-08 March 2018) triggering Precipitations evolved as from North-East of Madagascar. ELIAKIM and another FLOOD STORM seem to start from the same spot of Central Southern Ocean. These Systems seem to visit Mauritius which is celebrating her 50th Independence Anniversary on 12 March 2018.

 Uploaded: 10.55 pm FRIDAY 09 MARCH 2018.

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DUMAZILE & FLOOD STORM -TWIN SYSTEMS

In South-West Indian Ocean for Summer Season 2017-2018.

(Pl, Wait for Updates)

                    

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Météo-France-Réunion (MF) have been indicating the formation of Tropical Disturbance (94S INVEST) and of Cyclogenesis since 26 February 2018. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has, so far, not stated about any Low Pressure in its regular Weather Bulletin. It is now that the MMS is mentioning about Tropical Disturbance, at a time when the System has already crossed the Tropical Depression status, 65 km/h (35 Knots) as per JTWC. Lateness by the MMS, in keeping pace with International Centres, still continues. Lessons on the principles of the Early Warning Systems (EWS) are still not being learnt.

This Weather System should be baptized as DUMAZILE Moderate Tropical Storm right now. Besides, a Flood Storm as a Twin System is Highly probable. It should not be forgotten that Disaster Resilience is the “Wealth-of-the-Nation”.

 Uploaded: 12.39 pm FRIDAY 02 MARCH 2018.

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South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System-

Earlier, Enhanced and Elongated-

Torrential Rain-Another Perfect Prediction

(Final update after 15 May 2018)

Mention has been made in the ‘Weather and Summer Season 2017-2018’: “The Weather Systems, forming and evolving in the Southern Indian Ocean Basin, have undergone significant changes. The Patterns of previous years do not seem to be consistent. Meteorologists, Forecasters and Scientists are obliged to do their homework competently.”

Furthermore, the Southern Hemisphere of the Indian Ocean appears, no doubt, to develop some particular Dynamism in terms of Cyclones and Rainfalls. The Dynamics of Climate, Weather and Hydrology are crystal clear during the Summer Season 2017-2018. A series of Cyclones: AVAIRVINBERGUITTA and a trail of Precipitations in Madagascar, Reunion, Comoros, Mayotte, Rodrigues and Mauritius have evolved since New Year 2018. All these Weather Events have caused lots of Disasters in the respective Islands. They also prove that the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System (SWIOMS) is, too, Active and is prevailing in an Enhanced Phase. Besides, it has made an onset Earlier than other seasons. It also seems to have an Elongated lifespan, as its ‘peak is still ahead’, as mentioned in the last article: 'Tropical Disturbance 99S INVEST-Mozambique Channel'  

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BERGUITTA Intense Tropical Cyclone-

Tracking Along East of Mauritius-

Another 100% Perfect Prediction

 (Pl, Wait, for ASSESSMENT Report soon)

BERGUITTA Intense Tropical Cyclone is the third System of Summer Season 2017-18 of South Indian Ocean, after AVA and IRVIN. As a Moderate Tropical Storm, it threatened Rodrigues Island 13-15 January 2018. However, BERGUITTA showered graciously (52-110 mm) the drought-stricken island, as 100% Perfectly Predicted since 09 January. It is also a Phenomenon which has formed according to a change in Weather Pattern of this zone. It is highly likely to cruise along the landmass of Mauritius as from Wednesday 17 January. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has issued, at 4.30 pm Monday 15 January, Cyclone Warning Class I for Mauritius, after waiving Class III for Rodrigues. The Impacts are forecast to cause lots of material damages as Mauritius has been soaked by Heavy Rains since the New Year 2018. Besides, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is very Robust since a few days. BERGUITTA being a ‘Small-Size-System’ will, no doubt, move as from Wednesday 17 January, according to the tremendous and enhanced phase of the ACC-World Most Powerful Wind. It is Predicted to pass near the closest point at Trou-D’Eau-Douce in the East of MauritiusReunion Island too is under its ‘agenda’. DOOMSDAY?

PKANHYE.                10.11 pm MONDAY 15 JANUARY 2018.

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99S INVEST (CEBILE Failed to Form) in Mozambique Channel

Weather in the Southern Hemisphere of Season 2017-2018 continues to evolve in different pattern and in a very dynamic way, as mentioned in previous articles. Rainfalls and Cyclonic Systems are already causing disasters in this zone. After Tropical Cyclone AVA made landfall in Madagascar 03-05 January 2018, Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA threatened Rodrigues Island 13-15 January. Cyclone IRVIN (06-08 January 2018), luckily, tracked in the open Southern Indian Ocean, without meeting any land mass. However, Reunion and Mauritius have been showered Heavily during all these episodes. On one hand, while Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA continues to intensify and to appear a serious menace to Mauritius, on the other side a Tropical Disturbance is in formation in the Mozambique Channel. This is the ‘Hot Spot’ of the South-West Indian Ocean Basin. International Centres: the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has named it 99S INVEST; Météo-France (MF) has named it as 4-2017-2018. In case of intensification, it may be named CEBILE Moderate Tropical Storm. Besides, it resembles DINEO after CARLOS in Season 2016-2017.  Is it DOOMSDAY?

 

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96S INVEST-Forecast as Severe Tropical Cyclone

Within 24 Hours for Australia- 

Named JOYCE

(See Updates below)

                

The Southern Hemisphere of the Indian Ocean appears, no doubt, to develop some particular Dynamism in terms of Cyclones and Rainfalls. IRVIN-Severe Tropical Cyclone formed in the West of Cocos Island. It was named, by Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM), on 06 January 2018. IRVIN is still influencing Eastern Indian Ocean and a Fujiwhara Effect is expected with the weakening Tropical Cyclone AVA.

Another Cyclone is highly probable, for Western Australia. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has identified Tropical Disturbance 96S INVEST to intensify within 24 hours. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) indicates, as at 5.52 pm (11.52 am Mtian-Time), 09 January 2018, that ‘Tropical Low’ is expected to develop into a Severe Tropical Cyclone almost at the same pace.

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Rodrigues- Predicted Heavy Rainfalls by 13 January 2018. 

100% Perfect Prediction

97S INVEST- (BERGUITTA named)

(See Updates below)

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for South Indian Ocean has undergone a Dynamic Change in Weather Patterns, as compared to the previous years. Rodrigues Island, located around Latitude 220 South and Longitude 630 East, in under the impacts of the currently prevailing Cyclones AVA and IRVIN-the First Twin Weather Systems of this zone. Moreover, the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), the South-East Trade Winds (SETW) and the Robust Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) are contributing for the occurrence of HEAVY RAINFALLS, particularly on the drought-stricken Rodrigues. It is a Phenomenal Zone wherein all these systems undergo an Atmospheric Fusion. As a result, Extreme Weather Events take place. Besides, Reunion Island has already broken, yesterday 09 January 2018, the World Record (690 mm) in terms of Rainfalls in 6 hours with 737.2 mm of precipitations. This is Predicted, highly likely, to happen by 13 January 2018.   

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IRVIN Tropical Cyclone named by Australia BOM

Evolving from Cocos Islands-

2nd Cyclone for South Indian Ocean 2017-2018.

(Pl, Wait as Uploading is Still ON) 

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for South Indian Ocean appears to develop a particular dynamism in terms of Cyclones and Rains. While Tropical Cyclone AVA is making landfall across Madagascar, bands of Rain Clouds are following it, causing additional Disasters. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) has named another System as IRVIN Tropical Cyclone this morning. This Cyclone is moving West South-West at 20 kph. It represents a serious threat to Rodrigues, Mauritius and Reunion which have, during current week, been under floods associated with Tropical Cyclone AVA.

NB: Météo-France-Reunion (MFR) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC have been consistently signaling Cyclogenesis in this zone.

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AVA- First named Cyclone for Season 2017-2018

South Indian Ocean

(Pl, Wait as Uploading is still ON)

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for South Indian Ocean started officially from 01 November 2017. A Rainy episode occurred 14-17 November thereon. One Sub-Tropical Disturbance evolved in South of Madagascar 09-12 November 2017 and a second one on 17 November. Another Rainy period lasted from 23 to24 December 2017. Tropical Disturbance 94S INVEST formed on 29 December in the South-East of Diego Garcia moving almost West South-West after a slow intensification. Local, regional and international Forecasters experienced a lot of uncertainty regarding its dissipation or upgrading. Finally, it was named, at 10.00 am today 03 January 2018, by Météo-Madagascar as AVA Moderate Tropical Storm. It is noteworthy to state that the Pattern of Cyclogenesis for this Season seems to have changed as compared to that of 2016-2017 and of previous years.

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Weather and Cyclone Names for Summer Season 2017-2018

Southern Indian Ocean Basin

(Pl Wait, Uploading is Still ON)

The Weather Systems, forming and evolving in the Southern Indian Ocean Basin, have undergone significant changes. The Patterns of previous years do not seem to be consistent. Meteorologists, Forecasters and Scientists are obliged to do their homework competently. 01 November marks, officially, the beginning of Summer Season in the South-West Indian Ocean. However, as at date, Cyclogenesis have been signalled rather timidly, at local, regional and international levels. Nevertheless, the Summer Outlook 2016-17’ released by KANHYE.COM is a Record in Prediction of Weather on Medium Term basis. Refer to article.

Keep watch for more.

PKANHYE                    11.25 am Saturday 30 December 2017.

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OCKHI Very Severe Cyclonic Storm-Brief Assessment and

Disaster Resilience in India

International Centres

NOAA Climate Prediction Center has been indicating Cyclogenesis and Rainfall in the Bay of Bengal since 01 November until 28 November 2017. It was valid although Very Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI tracked towards the Arabian Sea. Refer to the pictures.

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Central India-Heavy Rains and Cyclonic System Approaching

                (Updated: 4.30 pm Monday 24 July 2017.)

                                   

On one hand, the Northern Hemisphere-Tropic of Cancer seems to be under the onslaughts of a series of Cyclonic Systems. While the Atlantic Ocean appears to be rather calm, except one Cyclone, the Weather Systems in the whole Pacific Ocean are very dynamical. NOAA explains: There appears to have been some organization of a coherent MJO signal over the past one to two weeks, though other convective variability continues to make for a complicated picture.”

On the other hand, the South-West Indian Monsoon is triggering Heavy Rainfalls and Flash Floods in which more than 70 people have been reported dead during this week and economic, agricultural and residential sectors have also been seriously affected.

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MORA Severe Cyclonic Storm-Phenomenal

Churning Monsoon Rains  and

Early Warning Systems- Not Perfect

The rapid evolution, since 25 May 2017, of 94 B INVEST into Severe Cyclonic Storm MORA and its eventual dissipation, is no doubt Phenomenal. It is also a matter of fact that it has, in combination with the South-West Monsoon, caused disastrous impacts all along its track until making landfall in Bangladesh. The Early Warning Systems seem not to be Perfect. UN and Media reports indicate considerable losses of lives, damage to property and economic loss, coupled with Humanitarian Crisis.

 (Uploaded: 11.50 pm SUNDAY 04 JUNE 2017)

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Tropical Disturbance Trapped in the

South-West Monsoon System-

MORA Cyclonic Storm finally named.

 (See UPDATES: 10.50 pm Sunday 28 MAY 2017

& 12.25 pm Monday 29 MAY 2017)

The South-West Monsoon Season of Asia seems to be trapping a Tropical Disturbance which is evolving since a few days in the Bay of Bengal. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has named it as 94 B INVEST on 26 May 2017. However, the probability of Cyclone Development was forecast to be Low, as the System showed slow development. However, it has signalled some slight improvement today.

UPLOADED: 5.00 pm SATURDAY 27 MAY 2017.

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MONSOON INDIA 2017-Earlier and

WINTER 2017 Southern Indian Ocean Earlier

(See UPDATE below)

 

The Climate and Weather Patterns in whole Indian Ocean appear to have changed. The Summer Season 2016-2017 for Southern Indian Ocean has already ended before 15 May, as mentioned in earlier article. In other words, Winter Season has started in 16 April 2017, as stated previously. WWW.KANHYE.COM has made another record in Weather Predictions for January to May 2017. See articles previously published.

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has released its 'Winter Outlook on 12 May 2017', based on its usual forecasts (although late).

The South-West Monsoon of Asia has also started earlier than normal period-20 May. Various regions of India have been under Thunderstorms since 12 May 2017, accompanied by Rains. While Mumbai was showered with Light Rains, other places in the North-East saw significant Precipitations. Heavier showers are forecast for many other regions.

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MAARUTHA Cyclonic Storm Forecast to Make Landfall

in MYANMAR around Midnight on 16 APRIL 2017.

The Low Pressure located, on 15 April 2017, at Latitude 14.70 North and Longitude 90.50 East, approximately 564 Nautical Miles of Dhaka, Bangladesh, has intensified into a Deep Depression. At 1730 hrs on 15 April 2017, it was located at Latitude 14.3º N and Longitude 90.0ºE, about 340 km West North-West of Maya Bandar (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) and 680 km south-southwest of Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) has moved with a Rapid Speed of 28 kph towards the North-East of Bay of Bengal. 

Owing to its further intensification, it has been named today as MAARUTHA Cyclonic Storm and is tracking towards almost the same direction at 24 kph, for an eventual Landfall. According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), MAARUTHA ‘is likely to move northeastwards and cross Myanmar coast near Sandoway around mid-night of today, the 16 th April 2017’.

CLICK HERE to verify with Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology.

Or CLICK Animation icon here with NOAA or here with IMD.

(Uploaded: 3.16 pm SUNDAY 16 APRIL 2017)

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Winter Approaching Earlier With Rains and

Summer 2016-2017 Departing with Late Showers

(This is the last article on Summer Season 2016-2017

Uploaded from Motherland Mauritius)

The outgoing Summer Season 2016-2017 of the Southern Indian Ocean has been remarkable with ‘Change in Climate and Weather Patterns’, as PREDICTED since 07-11 January 2017. The incoming Winter Season of 2017 seems to ring the ‘Alarum Bell’ with an early entry. Heavy Rainfalls have been recorded in Mauritius and Reunion Islands during this transitional period. The Atmospheric Conditions around the Mascarenes indicate a Wet Winter Season. (Watch Video below).

(Uploaded: 11.30 am SUNDAY 16 APRIL 2017)

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FERNANDO Twin of ENAWO- Intense Tropical Cyclone-

Another 100% Perfect PREDICTION for South Indian Ocean.

But, Incompetence of Mauritius Meteorological Services.

“March, which is the peak of the South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon System, is Predicted to offer scenarios of Extreme Weather Conditions with Floods coupled with Disastrous Cyclones.  This abstract from the article published in this Website: Summer Outlook 2016-2017- South Indian Ocean’ is another 100% Perfect PREDICTION made since 07-11 January 2017.

Cyclone FERNANDO is already in formation in Central-South Indian Ocean. While Météo-France-Réunion, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) has been indicating Cyclone Genesis in the Monsoon Trough, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has been upgrading to ‘HIGH’ for the System’. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) is still lingering and mentioning Tropical Depression. Besides, Observations of Clouds and of the Atmosphere around Mauritius confirm the PREDICTION of Extreme Weather Systems.

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 ENAWO 3rd Cyclone for 2017 South Indian Ocean-

Forming in Same Zone as PREDICTED in January 2017-

4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION for Season 2016-2017

The Climate and Weather Patterns in the Southern Indian Ocean are under an unprecedented Dynamism. After the two first Cyclones for year 2017-CARLOS (04-07 February 2017) and DINEO (13-15 February 2017), the zone around Madagascar and Mozambique Channel seems to be the same birthplace of ENAWO. On one side, Observations of the Atmosphere and of the Clouds from the Ground of Mauritius indicate the approach of another Cyclone and/or Flood Storm. While on the other hand, Météo-France-Réunion, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of South Indian Ocean Basin, is indicating Cyclone Genesis in the Monsoon Trough (Twaleg de Mousson). Read moreSummer Outlook 2016-2017 South Indian Ocean, Prediction and Cyclone Names.  (Watch Video below).

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DINEO Tropical Cyclone 13-15 February 2017

South-West Indian Ocean- Another 100% Perfect PREDICTION

The Climate and Weather Patterns in the Southern Indian Ocean have changed, as mentioned in Articles ‘Summer Outlook 2016-2017’, FLOOD STORM-100% Perfect PREDICTION’ and ‘CARLOS Tropical Cyclone 04-07 February 2017. Tropical Cyclone DINEO is another System which has taken birth in the zone of Mozambique Channel, as PREDICTED since 07-11 January 2017.

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CARLOS Severe Tropical Storm: 100% Perfect PREDICTION-

Poor Forecasts, Monitoring and Disaster Resilience

(Brief Assessment. Follow updates patiently) 

                                      

Finally, CARLOS Storm has taken birth in the zone as Predicted since 07-11 January 2017 and was baptised by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) at 4.15 pm on Saturday 04 February. It was initially located, as a Tropical Disturbance and Depression at Latitude 16.50 South and Longitude 56.60 East, 415 km North of Mauritius. It was moving South South-East at 10 kph. Its rapid evolution and intensification tend to delude local, regional and international meteorologists and scientists. Lots of uncertainties arise as to its behaviour, given: its tiny size, the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) environment varying between 280-300 Celsius and the probable impacts of ITCZ, MJO, SETW and ACC.

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Summer Outlook 2016-2017- South Indian Ocean,

Predictions and Cyclone Names

The Summer Season for South-West Indian Ocean has, according to the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS), officially started as from 01 November 2016. It is expected to end by 15 May. So far, there are no harsh weather conditions which are prevailing, except the Special Weather Bulletin of 03 December 2016. Local observations show that Heat, Humidity, Drought and Rains continue to persist, rather moderately. In addition, Regional and International Centres are, thus, not alerting alarming situations. But, Cyclonic Systems are Predicted to cause impacts as from January 2017, because the Weather Pattern seems to have changed in comparison to preceding years.

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FLOOD STORM- 100% Perfect PREDICTION

Cyclone CARLOS in Pipeline

 (Kindly, read the previous article on 'Summer Outlook 2017' before continuing, CLICK HERE)

The last paragraph of the previous article reads as follows:

‘NB: CARLOS which is the next name in the cyclone list is in the pipeline to form after the second week of January 2017. A FLOOD STORM, too, is preceding this System.

The current Weather Conditions around the South-West Indian Ocean prove that the PREDICTION made on 07-11 January 2017 is 100% VIRTUALLY True. See picture on the left and Watch Video below.

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ABELA Cyclone 0f South Indian Ocean in Formation

Winter Phenomenon  

NEW UPDATE: 10.00 pm Sunday 17 JULY 2016

The Winter Season 2016 in the Southern Indian Ocean continues to blow cold winds generated by the influence of the Anti-Cyclone and to shower some light rains in Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) continues to indicate, since May 2016, the formation of the Low Pressure System (90 S INVEST) near the East North-East of Diego Garcia. This time the circumstances and chances for the evolution of a Tropical Cyclone seem to be better. The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has named the Tropical Depression, at 3.15 pm on Sunday 17 July 2016, as Moderate Tropical Storm ABELA. So, at this conjecture, the name GOA is not valid. Refer to the explanations below.

 

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RODRIGUES ISLAND Lucky Escape from Unprecedented Thunderbolts

Whole Night of 30 April 2016

The Summer Season 2015-2016 is phasing out with Thunder, Lightning and Rain in the Southern Indian Ocean. Rodrigues Island experienced the Extreme Atmospheric Phenomenon of an unprecedented nature during the night of Saturday 30 April 2016. Although the Precipitations were moderate-to-average, the rumbling of Thunderbolts was rather frightening.

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Thunderbolts and Heavy Rain

Whole Night of 28 April 2016 in Mauritius

Loopholes of the Mauritius Meteorological Services

 

Thunder, Lightning and Rain have caused much panic in the population and authorities last night. In fact, tremendous thunder started rumbling as from 7.00 pm Thursday 28 April 2016, in the region of Port Louis. Flashes of large Lightning followed soon afterwards, as if the whole sky was ablaze.

The process began as from the North-West of Mauritius just above the Port Louis Mountain Range cruised towards the South-East. This was vivid while observing the sky as from that time, helped by the light illuminating everything on top and on the ground. Radar Images, as depicted on Météo-France-Reunion site, confirmed the meteors.

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FANTALA-Very Intense Tropical Cyclone: Record Breaker.

 Scientific Loopholes, But Best Prediction.

 (PART TWO- ASSESSMENT)

(You are requested to read PART ONE before Proceding Click Here)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) released its update on 05 April 2016, ‘Valid: 04.06.16 - 04.19.16:

'A fast moving intraseasonal signal, evident in the RMM MJO Index and the upper-level velocity potential field, remains active, with the enhanced phase currently over Africa and the far western Indian Ocean...

Statistical guidance such as the Constructed Analog model depict a much more robust Indian Ocean MJO event; however, these tools are not accounting for the current West Pacific convection.'Therefore, the MJO is anticipated to become increasingly incoherent during the next two weeks, and will not play a substantial role in the global tropical convective pattern.'  

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FANATALA CYCLONE-PHENOMENAL RECORD BREAKER

VISITING MADAGASCAR AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS-

SCIENTIFIC LOOPHOLES, BUT BEST PREDICTION.

(Part One of Assessment) 

The Summer Season 2015-2016 of the South Indian Ocean continues to prevail, in spite of the transition towards Winter Season. As usual, Satellite Images and Observations from the ground of Mauritius have provided information regarding the formation and evolution of Climate and Weather. Cyclone FANTALA, the 7th System of this Season, has taken a long time to take birth in the South Indian Ocean. That is why I mentioned and maintained my forecast of the formation of FANTALA as from18 March 2016. Contrary to the preceding Atmospheric Systems, FANTALA has evolved in solo and has proved to be a 'Record-Breaker'. It has visited Madagascar and the surrounding Islands, including others located in the South-West Indian Ocean. Refer to the information uploaded previously and also see the picture.

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 HIGH WAVES WARNING-SOUTH OF MASCARENE ISLANDS

The Summer Season 2015-2016 seems to end gradually and with some transition until the entry of Winter. However, a High Waves Warning has been issued by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) at 4.00 pm on Thursday 07 April 2016 and valid until 5.00 pm Sunday 10 April 2016. Waves of more than 4 metres in height have been forecast to swirl in the Sea within and beyond the lagoons of the South and West of Mauritius.

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EMERAUDE Moderate Tropical Storm 

 (See UPDATE 1 @ page 2)

Mauritius Meteorological Services located  abaout 1540 Km East South-East of Diego Garcia has been named today:

[ WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 05h00 THIS WEDNESDAY 16 MARCH 2016.

GENERAL SITUATION:

A.  A light, warm and moist airstream persists over our region.

B.  A tropical depression was evolving far to South-East of Diego Garcia.  It has intensified into a Moderate Tropical Storm and was named "EMERAUDE" by the Mauritius Meteorological Services.  At 04h00, it was centered in latitude 11.0 degrees South and longitude 85.7 degrees East.]

Check it out here and click for animation:   http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/international/irloop/24hr/atlind_irloop.html

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DAYA- 4th CYCLONE and TORRENTIAL RAIN-4th FLOOD STORM-

Phenomenal TWIN System and South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon

BRIEF ASSESSMENT-PART TWO

(Click here to read PART ONE)

Advent of Phenomenal TWIN SYSTEMS

The Torrential Rain and Cyclone DAYA were already a Tandem of TWIN System which influenced, disastrously, the Atmospheric Conditions mostly in the Mascarene Islands: Reunion, Mauritius and Rodrigues. Nevertheless, another System joined in the ‘party’. CYCLONE URIAH, named by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), shifted in the Area of Responsibility (AOR) of the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) as from Monday 15 February 2016. Rainy episodes continued, namely, with Port Louis 40 mm on that day and thereafter in the following days. The MMS continued to issue bulletins.

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DAYA- 4th CYCLONE and TORRENTIAL RAIN-4th FLOOD STORM-

Phenomenal TWIN System and South-West Indian Ocean Monsoon

 (NB:This article is late because of the upgrading process of this Website.

Thank you for your cooperation)

 

BRIEF ASSESSMENT- PART ONE

DAYANamed10FEB2016The Summer Season 2015-2016 of the South Indian Ocean continues to prevail in a Phenomenal Mode. Heat, Humidity, Temperature, Cyclones and Precipitations persist. Moreover, Rains: Heavy-to-Torrential seem to be favoured to Cyclones. This is almost an established Pattern, at the same time this is indicating a Monsoon System in the South-West Indian Ocean. In addition, Twin Systems are also becoming Phenomenal, thereby arousing some uncertainties for Meteorologists, Forecasters and Scientists at local, regional and international levels. However, Cloud Observations from the ground and application of Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices appear to cast more and better precision.

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