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Tropical Disturbance Trapped in the

South-West Monsoon System-

MORA Cyclonic Storm finally named.

 (See UPDATES: 10.50 pm Sunday 28 MAY 2017

& 12.25 pm Monday 29 MAY 2017)

The South-West Monsoon Season of Asia seems to be trapping a Tropical Disturbance which is evolving since a few days in the Bay of Bengal. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has named it as 94 B INVEST on 26 May 2017. However, the probability of Cyclone Development was forecast to be Low, as the System showed slow development. However, it has signalled some slight improvement today.

UPLOADED: 5.00 pm SATURDAY 27 MAY 2017.

The Climate Prediction Center of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) made a forecast of Cyclogenesis including Precipitations in Central/East Bay of Bengal for period 24 May to 06 June 2017. See picture.

NOAA/CPC states further: “The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which had been in a persistent negative phase, is now in its neutral phase, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). The BoM predicts the IOD will become positive during the next few months, which would be associated with abnormally warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and enhanced convection over the western portion of the Indian Ocean basin.”

In addition NOAA/CPC mentions the following:

During the next two weeks, the best chance for a TC to develop is over the Bay of Bengal, according to the ECMWF and GFS models, Taiwan's TC tracker tool, and subseasonal signals. The latest ECMWF model run predicts the formation of a low pressure center around 0z on 27 May off the coast of Burma/Myanmar. Over the ensuing few days, the budding disturbance intensifies and tracks northward, reaching the Bangladesh/Myanmar coast on 31 May. The latest GFS solution forecasts the development of a weak Low over the central Bay of Bengal around 12z on 29 May, which then tracks northward towards the Bangladesh coast, yet remains weak in intensity. The GFS has shown fairly poor day-to-day continuity regarding the evolution of this potential TC. The TC tracker tool from the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan also favors potential TC activity in the Bay of Bengal region.”

The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology issued the following toady 27 May 2017:

<<According to the observations at (13:30)hrs M.S.T today, the low pressure area over Southeast and adjoining Central Bay of Bengal still persists. It is likely to further intensify into a Depression during next (24)hrs. Monsoon is strong over the Andaman Sea and Southeast Bay of Bengal. Weather is  cloudy elsewhere over the Bay of Bengal.>>

Check here http://www.dmh.gov.mm/

 

Bangladesh Meteorological Department has not yet mentioned about Weather conditions there.

 

India Meteorological Department-RSMC

India continues to be under the onslaughts of Heat Waves:Maximum Temperatures Yesterday (46.0°C or more) were observed at Chandrapur- 47.0°C, Bramhapuri-46.9°C, Jaisalmer-46.4C and Ganganagar-46.0°C.”

 

India Meteorological Department (IND), the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre of WMO Region II, states today:

[Under the influence of the well-marked low pressure area over east-central and adjoining west-central & south-east Bay of Bengal, which is likely to concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours, conditions are becoming favourable for the further advance of southwest monsoon into some parts of south-west & central Bay of Bengal, remaining parts of south-west Bay of Bengal in coming 3-4 days. Conditions are favourable for the advance of south-west monsoon into north-east segment of India covering Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during 30-31 May 2017. With the strengthening of westerlies and northward shift of shear zone, conditions are also favourable for the advance of south-west monsoon into some parts of Arabian sea, entire Maldives-Comorin area and south Kerala during 30-31 May 2017.]

     Click here to Watch live. 

 The Advisories of the JTWC issued on 26 May 2017 are as follows:

{ABIO10 PGTW 260130... SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/REISSUED/260130Z-261800ZMAY2017:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR

11.8N 88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251544Z METOP-B ASCAT MICROWAVE IMAGE HAS A LACK OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT DISPLAYS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE INVEST AREA…

THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. OBSERVATIONS CLOSEST TO THE DISTURBANCE SHOW PRESSURE DECREASING ONLY 1MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, INDICATING VERY LITTLE DEEPENING OF THE DISTURBANCE…

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ANTICIPATING A NORTHERLY TRACK WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HRS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20

KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSUREIS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.}

 

Most of the Models provided by JTWC show the Forecast Tracks towards Bangladesh, except a few towards Myanmar. Refer to pictures. Other Advisories were released today as the status of 94 B INVEST was upgraded, following some slight organization:

{ABIO10 PGTW 270200

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

REISSUED/270200Z-271800ZMAY2017...

THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF INCREASINGLY

FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD AND THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN...

GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT VARY ON WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.}

  

 (UPDATED: 10.50 pm 28 MAY 2017)

India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its Advisories today, mentioning some rapid development of 94B INVESTas follows

[BULLETIN NO.: 02 (BOB 02/2017) TIME OF ISSUE: 1200 HOURS IST DATED: 28.05.2017

The depression over central Bay of Bengal moved east-north-eastwards with a speed of 40 kmph during past 3 hours and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 28th May, 2017 over east-central Bay of Bengal near Latitude 14.5º N and Longitude 89.5ºE, about 900 km nearly south south-east of Kolkata and 890 km south-southwest of Chittagong. The system is very likely to move north-north-eastwards and cross Bangladesh coast between longitude 91.0 ºE and 92.0ºE around 30th May 2017 noon. It is very likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 12 hours and into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours.

Warning:

(i) Heavy Rainfall Warning: 30th May 2017: Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely over south Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram; and heavy rainfall at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland.

31 st May 2017: Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and isolated extremely heavy rainfall very likely over Assam & Meghalaya. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely over Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh.

(ii) Wind warning: Squally winds speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph would prevail along & off Andaman Islands and adjoining Sea areas during next 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail over South Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Manipur and Tripura on 30th May and along & off West Bengal coast on 29th & 30th.

(iii) Sea condition: Sea condition would be rough to very rough along & off Andaman Islands during next 48 hours and along & off West Bengal Coast on 30th.

(iv) Fishermen Warning: Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along & off Andaman Islands during next 48 hrs. Fishermen along & off West Bengal Coast are advised not to venture into sea on 29th & 30th May and those out at sea are advised to return to the coast. The next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of 28th May 2016. (Naresh Kumar) Scientist-D RSMC, New Delhi.]

 

IMD continued with its Advisories on 28 May 2017:

[BULLETIN NO.: 03 (BOB 02/2017) TIME OF ISSUE: 1400 HOURS IST DATED: 28.05.2017

Sub: Depression over east-central Bay of Bengal The depression over east-central Bay of Bengal moved nearly north-eastwards with a speed of 32 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 28th May, 2017 over east-central Bay of Bengal near Latitude 15.0º N and Longitude 90.0ºE, about 850 km nearly south south-east of Kolkata and 830 km south-southwest of Chittagong. The system is very likely to move north-north-eastwards and cross Bangladesh coast between longitude 91.0 ºE and 92.0ºE around 30th May 2017 noon. It is very likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 12 s and into a cyclonic storm during sub sequent 24 hours.}

 

Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)-Storm Warning Center

The Storm Warning Center of the Bangladesh Meteorological Center mentioned, on 28 May 2017, the following in its Bulletin Number 03:

<<[ SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN: SL. NO. 03 (THREE), Date: 28.05.2017

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL BAY AND ADJOINING AREA (NEAR LAT 15.4°N AND LONG 90.6°E) AND WAS CENTRED AT 03 PM TODAY (THE 28 MAY 2017) ABOUT 770 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG PORT, 690 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COX’S BAZAR PORT, 790 KMS SOUTH OF MONGLA PORT AND 735 KMS SOUTH OF PAYRA PORT...

IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 15 HOURS AND MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 48 KMS OF THE DEEP DEPRESSION CENTRE IS ABOUT 50 KPH RISING TO 60 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN ROUGH NEAR THE SYSTEM...

MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG, COX’S BAZAR, MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED DISTANT CAUTIONARY SIGNAL NO. ONE (R) ONE. ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY AND DEEP SEA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY AND REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.]>>(Md. Abdur Rahman Khan) Meteorologist.

  

 

  Click here to Watch Live HIMAWARI Satellite Footprint-

http://www.bmd.gov.bd/?/satelite 

 

  (UPDATED: 10.50 pm SUNDAY 28 MAY 2017)

The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS)/UN/EU is coordinating the Strom Surge impact of the Deep Depression. Check here:

http://www.gdacs.org/Cyclones/stormsurge.aspx?eventid=1000357&episodeid=4&eventtype=TC

 

The latest Advisories of JTWC mention, amongst others, Ocean Waves reaching 4 metres (12 Feet). Landfall on Chittagong is expected to take place along Northwards with a slight Track towards North-East. Further intensification is also forecast within 36 hours and an eventual rapid weakening and Dissipation within 48 hours.

 

Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) has released its SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN: SL. NO. 09, today, 29 May 2017. The Deep Depression has been named as MORA Cyclonic Storm. See below.

<< SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN: SL. NO. 09 (NINE), Date: 29.05.2017

THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ (ECP 996 HPA) OVER EAST-CENTRAL BAY AND ADJOINING AREA MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS OVER EAST-CENTRAL BAY AND ADJOINING NORTH BAY (NEAR LAT 17.5°N AND LONG 91.3°E) AND WAS CENTRED AT 09 AM TODAY (THE 29 MAY 2017) ABOUT 530 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG PORT, 445 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COX’S BAZAR PORT...

RISING TO 88 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN VERY ROUGH NEAR THE SYSTEM. MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG AND COX’S BAZAR HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER LOCAL WARNING SIGNAL NO. FOUR BUT INSTEAD HOIST DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER SEVEN...

THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED UP TO 62-88 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE CYCLONIC STORM...

ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY AND DEEP SEA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

(Md. Bazlur Rashid) Meteorologist For Director 29, 0910 BST.>>

 

NB: According to local media, 24 persons have, today, been reported dead by Heavy Rains and Hailstorms in Bihar, India. Some harvests have also been destroyed. The Dynamics of the Early Warning Systems are, no doubt, questionable!

Keep Watch for Updates.

PKANHYE.  (Updated: 12.25 pm Monday 29 MAY 2017)     

 

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