Wednesday, 21 February 2018

Watch Video-Thunderbolts Without Rain and Winter Anti-Cyclone (26-30 April 2017.

Watch Video-Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritiu, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017.

 

 

Watch ENAWO Intense Tropical Cyclone (03-08 March 2017) South Indian Ocean-4th 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

Watch MMS LIVE 

 

 

 Watch CARLOS Tropical Cyclne (04-07) February 2017-South-West Indian Ocean, another 100% Perfect PREDICTION.

 

 

 

 Watch DINEO- Click Animation- 13 Feb. 2017 (courtesy: NOAA)

 

 

  

Watch Video-FLOOD STORM and Cyclone CARLOS Formations- January 2017.

INNOVATION & UNIQUENESS of MADAGASCAR- Watch VIDEO

 Watch LUNAR Eclipse-Friday 16 September 2016. 

 

 

''NASA Sees Hurricane Matthew Producing Dangerous Rainfall'' . Click to watch LIVE from NOAA or Watch from NASA/GPM here 

 

 

 

 

  Watch LIVE from UN 71st SessionSpeech of Sir Anerod JugnauthPrime Minister of Mauritius.

 

 

  Watch VIDEO: SUN Annular Eclipse from Central Atlantic Ocean to South-East Indian Ocean-01 September 2016.. 

 

 

 

 Watch VIDEO: THUNDERBOLTS trigger Heavy Rainfalls in Mauritius and Rodrigues (28-30) April 2016.

 Watch VIDEO on BAN KI-MOON 08-10 May 2016 Mission in Mauritius.

 Watch part of FANTALA VITC with METEOSAT 7 Video

 Watch animation of CYCLONE FANTALA Live with NOAA.

 

 

Watch Video DAYA Cyclone and TORRENTIAL RAIN 10-13 February 2016:South-West Indian Ocean

 

Watch WMO Video 23 MarchWorld Meteorological Day 2016

 

HALO SUN and MOON Predicting FLOOD for MARCH 2016
Halo Sun and Moon March 2016

 

Watch Cyclone CORENTIN January 2016

explans the cyclon correntin

 

Watch Flood Storm 31 December 2015

Explains the prediction of flood storm of dec 2015

 

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MORA Severe Cyclonic Storm-Phenomenal

Churning Monsoon Rains  and

Early Warning Systems- Not Perfect

The rapid evolution, since 25 May 2017, of 94 B INVEST into Severe Cyclonic Storm MORA and its eventual dissipation, is no doubt Phenomenal. It is also a matter of fact that it has, in combination with the South-West Monsoon, caused disastrous impacts all along its track until making landfall in Bangladesh. The Early Warning Systems seem not to be Perfect. UN and Media reports indicate considerable losses of lives, damage to property and economic loss, coupled with Humanitarian Crisis.

 (Uploaded: 11.50 pm SUNDAY 04 JUNE 2017)

The Climate Prediction Center of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) made a forecast of Cyclogenesis including Precipitations in Central/East Bay of Bengal for period 24 May to 06 June 2017. This time, the Numerical Models, including Forecast Track, revealed out to be perfect. See picture.

In addition, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) released Advisories in a Dynamic way. In short the Early Warning Systems seemed to be perfect, as far as these international centres are concerned.

JTWC (main) Advisories were as follows:

<<…AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SAME RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 36. ONCE TC 02B MAKES LANDFALL, IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 48…

DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 12 FEET.>>

The JTWC mentioned in its Advisories dated 2017 MAY 29, ‘TC 02B(MORA) WARNING 7/JTWC

<< FOLLOWED BY LANDFALL NEAR CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH IN AROUND 24 HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL, WITH THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET.

India Meteorological Department-

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

India Meteorological Department (IMD), which is also the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC), monitored the evolution of Severe Cyclonic Storm MORA. The Forecast Track was perfect and the Advisories were constantly released, since 28 May 2017:

{Sub: Depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal

The depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal moved nearly northeastwards with a speed of 32 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 28th May, 2017 over eastcentral Bay of Bengal near Latitude 15.0º N and Longitude 90.0ºE, about 850 km nearly south-southeast of Kolkata and 830 km south-southwest of Chittagong. The system is very likely to move north-northeastwards and cross Bangladesh coast between longitude 91.0 ºE and 92.0ºE around 30th May 2017 noon. It is very likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 12 hours and into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours.}

IMD continued to release Advisories and Warnings on Heavy Rains, Wind and Rough Seas.

Bangladesh Meteorological Center (BMC)

The Storm Warning Center of the Bangladesh Meteorological Center mentioned, on 28 May 2017, the following in its Bulletin Number 03:

[...IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 15 HOURS AND MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 48 KMS OF THE DEEP DEPRESSION CENTRE IS ABOUT 50 KPH RISING TO 60 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN ROUGH NEAR THE SYSTEM...

MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG, COX’S BAZAR, MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED DISTANT CAUTIONARY SIGNAL NO. ONE (R) ONE. ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY AND DEEP SEA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY AND REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.]

The Warnings were gradually upgraded: {THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED UP TO 62-88 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS WITHHOIST DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER SEVEN... HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE CYCLONIC STORM...}

NB: The name 'MORA' was provided by Thailand, which is one of the 8 Member States of this Zone II of WMO.

 

Early Warning Systems and Disaster Resilience

Severe Cyclonic Storm MORA took birth as a Tropical Disturbance as from 25 May 2017, at the period in which the South-West Monsoon System was already evolving. The combination of these two Weather Systems triggered lots of Disastrous Impacts along the Bay of Bengal and its periphery. Various media reports highlight these.

The UN say mentioned that on 30 May 2017: <<According to Sri Lanka’s Disaster Management Centre (DMC), the South Asian country is combating floods and mudslides in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Mora, while the United Nations Migration Agency (IOM) today deployed three rapid assessment teams to the most affected districts, where some 177 people have died and 109 remain missing.

Over half a million people have been affected by flooding and landslides in central and southern Sri Lanka.

Since heavy rains on Friday, most of the deaths were caused by landslides…Over 768 houses have been destroyed and 5,869 partially damaged while 80,409 people were temporarily displaced to 361 safe locations. More than half the displaced are located in Rathnapura district.>>

  

VERIFY HERE: http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsId=56970#.WUVSFJKGPoI

NASA GPM CO’s “maximum rainfall estimates with Mora were over the open waters ofthe Bay Of Bengal south of Bangladesh. IMERG estimates indicated that more than 1166 mm (45 inches) of rain fell in that area. Over 381mm(15 inches) of rain contributed to the disaster over southern Sri Lanka. Heavy monsoon rainfall is shown moving into southwestern India.” 

https://pmm.nasa.gov/extreme-weather/imerg-shows-heavy-rainfall-southwest-india-northeast-india 

Watch animation with NASA- https://pmm.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/TRMM_News_2015/imerg_india_24_may-1_june_2017_animated.gif

 

 

In Bihar, India 24 persons have lost their life because of Heavy Rains, Hailstorms and fallen trees before and during the passage of MORAWith winds blowing at 145 kph and Heavy Rains, at least 9 persons are reported dead, 20,000 houses destroyed in Cox’s Bazar only, trees uprooted, etc. in Bangladesh, according to media sources. 

 

[Bangladesh’s Disaster Ministry ordered local authorities to evacuate people living in low-lying coastal areas to safety, the ministry’s additional secretary, Golam Mostafa, told reporters in Dhaka. About 10 million of Bangladesh’s population of 160 million live in low-lying coastal areas.]

 

Refer to Media report to understand the horrible havoc caused by MORA:

http://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/nation/2017/05/30/casualties-mora-coxs-bazar/

 

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

 

The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) meeting was held in Cancun, Mexico on 25-29 May 2017. This international platform coincided with the formation and intensification of MORA in the Bay of Bengal 25-30 May 2017. It was attended by about 6,000 participants. This was a follow up of the 'Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015' held in Japan. Its main purpose was to show the Progress made as far as the Implementation of the Sendai Undertakings and Paris Agreement were concerned.

UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Disaster Risk Reduction, 

Robert Glasser, who welcomed the participants said hoping ‘the gathering would provide “great momentum” to efforts to make this a safer and more resilient world’…

‘Last year, 445 million people were affected by disasters linked to natural hazards worldwide including floods, storms, earthquakes and drought, 8,000 people lost their lives and direct economic losses from major disaster events were estimated at $138.8 billion…The World Bank estimates that the real cost to the global economy from disasters is $520 billion per year and that they push 24 million people into poverty annually.’

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=56843#.WTQbdJJ97oJ

The statistics of UN ‘The Economic and Human Impacts by Disasters in the Last 10 Years’ (2005-2014) reveal the most affected states, namely: China, US, Philippines, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Mexico, Japan and Pakistan. Strikingly, Asian Countries are in the front line, apart from US and Mexico. Refer to the picture. 

 

Moreover, UN has appealed to the international community to respond to the Humanitarian Crisis for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. UN, India and Pakistan are on the front line, for the time being.

 

DISASTER RESILIENCE

Honourable Kiren Rijiju, MP from Arunachal Pradesh, Minister of State for Home Affairs, Government of India, attended the Cancun Conference. No doubt, the representatives-Policy Makers, Disaster Management Centres, Meteorological Services, other Stakeholders, amongst others, of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Maldives, etc should have participated therein.

The questions are: what have the respective states achieved in matters related to Disaster Resilience, Sustainable Development, Education-Awareness, Preparedness, Mitigation, Rescue, Response and Rehabilitation, etc ? 

Douglas Pattie, Coordinator at United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction stated in Bonn, Germany in December 2008 regarding ‘Good Practices and Lessons Learned’...

“Our ‘bottom-line’ goal is to foster public-private partnerships for disaster risk reduction and contribute to sustainable socio-economic development by reducing risk and vulnerability to natural hazards.”

 

Nowadays, were are talking aboutTransforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.’

On one side Natural Calamities are increasing with Intensity and Frequency. On the other hand, and year in year out, all types of Conferences, Symposiums, Workshops, etc are mushrooming at local, regional and international levels. Besides, there are all kinds of international events recognized and marked by the UN almost every day. Examples are: World Meteorological Day (23 March), Disaster Reduction Day (13 October), etc.

Examples are:

  1. World Meteorological Day (23 March). This year 2017 the theme was ‘UNDERSTANDING CLOUDS’. WMO published the New Version of the International Cloud Atlas. How far, this resource is being utilized for the Education and Benefit of one and all? Read more: 'UNDERSTANDING CLOUDS-Theme of World Meteorological Day 23 March 2017.'
  2.  Disaster Reduction Day (13 October). Last year 2016 the theme was ‘Live to Tell’. To what extent Knowledge is being Shared and Disseminated? Read more:  LIVE TO TELL 2016- 13 OCTOBER DAY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION

Other questions which arise are:

  1. do the Policy Makers, Institutions and overall participants, after obtaining thereon all data and information, really share to the public for ensuring Safety and Protection against oncoming Natural Hazards? or
  2. participating in international events means only obtaining nomination, air ticket, hotel accommodation, taxi travel, stipends, photos, videos and media focus?
  3. The role of the Media is also questionable. The Alerts and Warnings issued by the Meteorological Services are sent by Fax and/or email to the several stakeholders of the respective states. How far the radio, television, newspapers/electronic media, smart phones really disseminate, on Real-Time basis, the data and information received by the Meteorological and other governmental institutions? The whole of Media is one of the main Multi-Sectoral Framework Stakeholders of  the Disaster Management System. Refer to WMO and KANHYE.COM Charts.

   

All these issues were, although briefly, raised with the Add. DG of India Meteorological Department and the Scientist of Ministry of Earth Sciences at the meeting on Monday 22 May 2017 at Lodi Road, New Delhi, India.

 

NB: The path towards Disaster Resilience and Sustainable Development is paved with lots of available Local, Regional and International resources whose use should, unconditionally, be optimized for the Safety and Protection of each human being, including all material wealth. 

Life-Saving-Tools’ should be ‘Country-Driven-Mechanisms’ geared towards ‘Putting-People-First’ concepts. This is one of the various ways of implementing Early Warning Systems

Keep Watch.

PKANHYE.           11.50 pm SUNDAY 04 JUNE 2017. 

Follow me on  ,   & Videos

Read more: Tropical Disturbance Trapped in the South-West Monsoon System. MORA Cyclonic Storm finally named;

                                   MONSOON INDIA 2017-Earlier and WINTER 2017 Southern Indian Ocean Earlier;

                                    LIVE TO TELL 2016- 13 OCTOBER DAY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION;

                                    UNDERSTANDING CLOUDS-Theme of World Meteorological Day 23 March 2017;

                                     MAARUTHA Cyclonic Storm with Rapid Development Forecast to Make Landfall in MYANMAR around                                            Midnight on 16 APRIL 2017.

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