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Rodrigues- Predicted Heavy Rainfalls by 13 January 2018. 

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97S INVEST- (BERGUITTA named)

(See Updates below)

The Summer Season 2017-2018 for South Indian Ocean has undergone a Dynamic Change in Weather Patterns, as compared to the previous years. Rodrigues Island, located around Latitude 220 South and Longitude 630 East, in under the impacts of the currently prevailing Cyclones AVA and IRVIN-the First Twin Weather Systems of this zone. Moreover, the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), the South-East Trade Winds (SETW) and the Robust Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) are contributing for the occurrence of HEAVY RAINFALLS, particularly on the drought-stricken Rodrigues. It is a Phenomenal Zone wherein all these systems undergo an Atmospheric Fusion. As a result, Extreme Weather Events take place. Besides, Reunion Island has already broken, yesterday 09 January 2018, the World Record (690 mm) in terms of Rainfalls in 6 hours with 737.2 mm of precipitations. This is Predicted, highly likely, to happen by 13 January 2018.   

                            

Updated: 4.25 pm Tuesday 09 January 2018.

 

The Mauritius Meteorological Services released a Special Weather Bulletin at 11.30 am today Thursday 11 January 2018. See below.

\/\/\ Special Weather Bulletin

Thu, Jan 11, 2018.

Special Communique issued at 11.30 hours on Thursday 11 January 2018.

Heavy rain and thunderstorm warning, valid from 1300 hours to 2000 hours this Thursday 11 January 2018.

Moist and very unstable atmospheric conditions are favouring the formations of active clouds over the Island.

These clouds will cause heavy and thundery showers in the afternoon and evening mainly to the West, over the Central Plateau and in Port Louis.

The showers may cause heavy run-off and water accumulation particularly in the urban areas.

The public is strongly advised to stay in sheltered areas during the thundery showers and avoid venturing in risky places as well as at sea.\/\/\ 

NB:

MMS recorded 73.2 mm as maximum Rainfall at Nouvelle Découverte from 10.00 am 10 to 11 January 2018. Moreover, whole yesterday was under Thunderstorms. The Brisée Verdière Area Health Centre was struck by Lightning yesterday, wherein the electricity network, walls, glasses and floor were damaged. The Verdun/Terre Rouge Highway was closed last night because of landslides. Flooding and mudslides are continuing in whole Island.

Verify Here: http://metservice.intnet.mu/warning-bulletin-special-weather.php

 

Reunion Island is also on Orange Alert since this morning. Maximum Rainfalls, so far, recorded as at 3 pm 11 January 2018 is 56.1 mm at Grand Coude.

{{{ BULLETIN RÉUNION  

JOURNEE DU JEUDI 11

La Réunion reste dans un environnement humide et instable. Le vent de Sud-Est est établit en fin de journée.

Même si le temps est plus clément en ce début de matinée, il faut rester prudent sur les activités extérieures. Le temps peut changer très rapidement avec des averses soutenues voir orageuses.

Du fait de l'instabilité de la masse d'air, l'intérieur de l'île se charge rapidement de nuages et les premières précipitations tombent avant la fin de matinée sur les régions du Volcan et quasiment l'ensemble de la région sud, les hauts de l'Est ainsi que ceux de l'Ouest. Il y a peu d'évolution l'après-midi, si ce n'est un vent de Sud-Est qui se renforce sur la région de Saint-Pierre en remontant sur les plages.

En fin de journée, l'évolution diurne favorise la dissipation des nuages dans un premier temps, mais rapidement dans le flux de Sud-Est, le temps se dégrade à nouveau par le sud de l'île.

Le vent de Sud-Est continue de se renforcer.

Une houle modérée de Sud-Ouest vient se croisée en cours de journée avec une houle de secteur Est du côté de la Pointe de la Table générant ainsi une mer forte à agitée.
}}}

   Updated: 4.16 pm Thursday 11 January 2018.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center                 

The JTWC has indicated a SUSPECT Area as from 10 January 2018 and has upgraded the System from ‘Low’, ‘Medium’ and ‘High’ status, gradually. The Advisories on 12 January 2018:

{{{ABIO10 PGTW 120230

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED

NEAR 13.4S 68.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 69.1E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. AN 112059Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING INTO DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER...

THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-30 CELSIUS). AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER LOWER VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS... 

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.}}}

 

Mauritius Meteorological Services 

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has not been mentioning about a Low Pressure or a Tropical Disturbance, in the daily Weather Bulletin, so far. However, the Forecasters have arisen around 11.35 am on Friday 12 January 2018 to publish the following and to mention it in the Supplementary paragraph:

[[[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 11H35 THIS FRIDAY 12 JANUARY 2018.

GENERAL SITUATION:

(I)  The atmospheric conditions remain moist and rather unstable over our region.

(II) Moreover, clouds associated with an instability line, coming from the East, will influence the local weather tomorrow morning. 

FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS: 

Temporarily cloudy this afternoon to the West and over the Central Plateau with localised showers. Partly cloudy elsewhere.

The maximum temperature will be 26 to 28 degrees Celsius over the Central Plateau and between 30 and 33 degrees Celsius along the coasts.

Fair weather over the whole island during the night.

Gradually cloudy tomorrow morning with showers at times.

The minimum temperature will be 19 to 22 degrees Celsius over the high grounds and between 24 and 26 degrees Celsius elsewhere. 

Wind from the Eastern sector 15 to 20 km/h. 

Sea rough beyond the reefs with South-Easterly swells.

Ventures in the open seas are not advised.

Supplementary Info:

 

A marked low pressure area is evolving at about 750 km to the North-East of Rodrigues. There are indications that the system will intensify gradually and will move in a general South-Westerly direction at about 15 km/h.]]]

 

The MMS released another communique at 12.30 pm today 12 January 2018. NB: No Forecast Track is not available.

[[[Special Weather Communiqué for Rodrigues issued at 1230 hours on Friday 12 January 2018.

Evolution of a marked low pressure area to the north east of Rodrigues.

At 1000 hours, this Friday 12 January 2018, a marked low pressure area was centered at about 750 km to the north east of Rodrigues. Being located in a favourable environment, most numerical prediction models are intensifying the system while it is moving in a general south westerly direction at about 15 km/h.

The marked low pressure may become a tropical disturbance by this evening. Continuing to move on this southwesterly trajectory and considering that it will maintain the same rate of intensification, it is likely that the system will reach the moderate tropical storm stage late Saturday night while it will be in the vicinity of Rodrigues. It will then be named BERGUITTA.

As from Sunday early morning the system is forecast to move west south west at a reduced speed of about 12 km/h and will pass at within 100 km to the North of Port Mathurin by mid-morning of the same day.

This forecast is based on numerical weather prediction models which as a lot of inherent uncertainty.

Weather at Rodrigues will become showery as from tomorrow afternoon and wind from the southeast with a mean speed of 40 km/h and will gradually strengthen. Highest gusts expected on Sunday morning will be around 110 km/h.

Sea will be rough becoming very rough to high as from Saturday evening.

This forecast will be updated tomorrow early morning.]]]

Updated: 4.45 pm FRIDAY 12 JANUARY 2018.

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has not been mentioning about the Low Pressure three days ago. Now they are still stating Tropical Disturbance at a time that the System has already reached 64.82 kph (35 knots) according to JTWC. So, the MMS should name the System as BERGUITTA Moderate Tropical Storm.

NB: It is ridiculous that the Amateurs of MMS have released Cyclone Warning Class 1 before naming the System as Storm/Cyclone. This is also against the Early Warning Systems.(EWS) as per WMO and UNISDR. 

[[[ Cyclone Warning Bulletin Rodrigues (French Version) 

Sat, Jan 13, 2018.

Un avertissement de cyclone de classe I est en vigueur à Rodrigues.
Un avertissement de cyclone de classe I est en vigueur à Rodrigues.


Premier bulletin de cyclone pour Rodrigues émis à 0410 heures ce Samedi 13 Janvier 2018.


A 0400 heures la perturbation tropicale était centre a environ 420 km au Nord-Est de Rodrigues, soit en latitude 17.5 degrés Sud et longitude 66.5 degrés Est. Elle se déplace dans une direction de l’Ouest Sud-Ouest a environ 15 km/h.

Evoluant dans un environnement favorable, il y a des indications que le système s’intensifiera graduellement tout en s'approchant de Rodrigues et pourrait atteindre le stade de tempête tropicale modérée demain matin.

Vue sa proximité de Rodrigues et son intensité prévue, des vents dépassant les 110 km/h et de fortes pluies pourraient être ressenties sur l’ile demain matin.

Donc un avertissement de cyclone de classe I est en vigueur à Rodrigues. 

Le public a Rodrigues est conseillé de prendre les précautions préliminaires.

Le temps à Rodrigues sera mi couvert a nuageux ce samedi avec quelques ondées principalement sur les hauteurs. Le ciel deviendra nuageux à couvert à partir de ce soir avec des averses passagères.

Le vent soufflera du sud-est à une vitesse de 40 km/h en moyenne, se renforçant graduellement. Les rafales pourront atteindre environ 110 km/h dimanche matin.

La mer sera forte devenant très forte à grosse à partir de samedi soir.

Un avertissement de cyclone de classe I est en vigueur à Rodrigues.
Un avertissement de cyclone de classe I est en vigueur à Rodrigues.

Le prochain bulletin sera emis vers 10h10. ]]]

http://metservice.intnet.mu/cyclone-bulletin-french-rodrigues.php

Joint Typhoon Warning Center Advisories 13 January 2018. Mention has been made that 97S INVEST has reached 64.82 kph (35 knots) Wind Force. So, the Tropical Disturbance should be named, instantly, as BERGUITTA Moderate Tropical Storm.

{{{WTXS31 PGTW 130300.

REMARKS:

130300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 65.2E. 

TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 06S...

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS...

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 06S WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE WEST WITH A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 36 AND INTENSIFY TO 65 KNOTS. TC 06S WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72 WITH A CONTINUED WEAK STEERING PATTERN...

A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL ACCELERATE AND STEER TC 06S SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR TAU 72...

THE DEVELOPING DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS WILL ALLOW TC 06S TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 96...

DUE TO THE LACK OF A PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS, ESPECIALLY AS TC 06S BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY...

AFTER TAU 72 THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TC 06S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 12 FEET. }}}

Updated: 10.50 am SATURDAY 13 JANUARY 2018

 

Tropical Depression 97S INVEST intensified at around 7.30 am Mauritian-Time (3.00 hrs as per JTWC). It was named, by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS), at 16.10 hrs (Mtian-Time) as Moderate Tropical Storm BERGUITTA. At the same time Cyclone Warning Class II was issued for Rodrigues. BERGUITTA was located 230 km North-East of Rodrigues Island at Latitude 17.80 South and Longitude 64.50 East. Its movement was estimated at 15 kph in the West South-West direction.

This is one of the proofs that the MMS is still Amateurs. How can you mention 'Cyclone Warning Class I or II' before naming the cyclone? This is not Early Warning System. This is 'putting-the-ox-behind-the-cart'. 

 .

[[[WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 16H20 THIS SATURDAY 13 JANUARY 2018.

GENERAL SITUATION:

(A). The tropical depression which was evolving to the North-East of Rodrigues has intensified into a moderate tropical storm and has been named 'Berguitta'.

At 16h00, Moderate Tropical Storm 'Berguitta' was centred around point 17.8 degrees South in lalitude and 64.5 degrees East in longitude, that is at about 750 km to the North-East of Mauritius.

It is moving in a West-South-West direction at about 15 km/h.

(B). Active clouds associated with the instability line continue to influence the local weather. ]]]

At 19.10 hrs, a Cyclone Warning Class III was released by the MMS.

[[[ Cyclone Warning Bulletin Rodrigues (French Version)

Sat, Jan 13, 2018

Un avertissement de cyclone de classe III est en vigueur à Rodrigues
Un avertissement de cyclone de classe III est en vigueur à Rodrigues


Quatrieme bulletin de cyclone pour Rodrigues émis a 19H10 ce Samedi 13 Janvier 2018.

La tempete tropicale moderee BERGUITTA continue a s'intensifier lentement tout en s'approchant de Rodrigues.  A 19H00, BERGUITTA a était centrée à environ 200 km au nord nord-est de Rodrigues, soit en latitude 18.0 degrés Sud et longitude 64.0 degrés Est. Elle se déplace dans une direction de l'ouest-sud-ouest à environ 15 km/h.  

Sur cette trajectoire, elle continue a s'approche de Rodrigues et elle passera à son point le plus rapproche à environ 130 km au nord-nord-ouest de l'île vers 0400 heures demain matin.

Vu son intensification et sa proximité de Rodrigues, des conditions cycloniques pourraient être ressenties sur l'íle tôt demain matin.]]]

 Updated: 10.31 pm SATURDAY 13 January 2018

 

Météo-France-Reunion

Météo-France-Reunion, which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the South-West Indian Ocean released its Advisories regularly. Mentioned have been made, mainly, on 13 and 14 January 2018 with almost the same forecasts regarding BERGUITTA.FurtherIntensification is expected on 15-18 January.

<<< WTIO31 FMEE 131825

A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/3/20172018 1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BERGUITTA)

B PREVISIONS:

12H: 14/01/2018 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

24H: 14/01/2018 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

36H: 15/01/2018 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

48H: 15/01/2018 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL

60H: 16/01/2018 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL

72H: 16/01/2018 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 17/01/2018 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE

120H: 18/01/2018 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE >>>

 Updated: 11.45 am SUNDAY 14 January 2018.

 

NB: MMS recorded Rainfalls for Rodrigues-52 mm on 13 Jan; 83 mm on 14 Jan, 110 mm on 15 Jan. The Weather Bulletins are as follows:  

[[[ WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 11H40 THIS SUNDAY 14 JANUARY 2018.

GENERAL SITUATION:

(A) At 1000 hours this morning, the moderate tropical storm 'BERGUITTA' was centered around the point 18.1 degrees South in latitude and 62.9 degrees East in longitude, that is at about 560 km to the East-North-East of Mauritius. It is moving in a general Westerly direction at about 12 km/h

Bulletin prévision - Rodrigues

Un avertissement de cyclone de classe III est en vigueur à Rodrigues.

Un avertissement de cyclone de classe III est en vigueur à Rodrigues.

Neuvième bulletin de cyclone pour Rodrigues émis à 10H10 ce Dimanche 14 Janvier 2018

A 10H00, la tempête tropicale modérée BERGUITTA était centrée à environ 180 km presqu'au nord-nord-ouest de Rodrigues, soit en latitude 18.1 degrés Sud et longitude 62.9 degrés Est. Elle se déplace dans une direction générale de l'ouest à environ 12 km/h. 

Vu que la tempête évolue dans le voisinage de Rodrigues et des bandes nuageuses actives continuent à influencer le temps sur l'île, la possibilité de ressentir des conditions cycloniques sur l'íle existe encore.

[[[ WEATHER NEWS FOR MAURITIUS ISSUED AT 16H40 THIS SUNDAY 14 JANUARY 2018.

GENERAL SITUATION:

(A) The moderate tropical storm 'BERGUITTA' has intensified into a severe tropical storm during the day. At 1600 hours, 'BERGUITTA' was centered around the point 18.1 degrees South in latitude and 62.9 degrees East in longitude, at about 560 km to the East-North-East of Mauritius. It has remained quasi-stationary during the last six hours.

Cyclone Warning Bulletin Rodrigues (French Version)

Mon, Jan 15, 2018

Un avertissement de cyclone de classe III est en vigueur à Rodrigues

Un avertissement de cyclone de classe III est en vigueur à Rodrigues

Seizième bulletin de cyclone pour Rodrigues émis à 07H10 ce Lundi 15 Janvier 2018.

La forte tempête tropicale BERGUITTA s'est ìntensifiee legèrement durant la nuit et reste stationnaire. A 07H00 ce matin elle était centrée à environ 180 km presqu'au Nord-Nord-Ouest de Rodrigues, soit en latitude 18.1 degrés Sud et longitude 62.9 degrés Est. Un deplacement lent vers l'Ouest Nord Ouest est prévu pendant la journée.

Vu l'intensité de BERGUITTA, sa proximité de Rodrigues et également des bandes nuageuses actives qui influencent toujours le temps sur l'île, la possibilité de ressentir des conditions cycloniques sur l'île existe encore.

Les plus fortes rafale enregistrée jusquà 0700 heures ce matin sont:
Patate Theophile: 108 km/h
Pointe Canon: 102 km/h
Plaine Corail: 85 km/h

La pluviometrie enregistrée durant les dernieres 24 heures jusqua 0400 heures ce matin:

Citronelle: 113 mm
Pointe Canon: 96 mm
Plaine Corail: 61 mm.

Check it out here:  

http://metservice.intnet.mu/forecast-bulletin-english-mauritius.php

http://www.meteofrance.re/previsions-meteo-reunion/bulletin

http://pluiesextremes.meteo.fr/lareunion/Records-mondiaux.html

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/first-week-of-2018-marked-extreme-weather 

Click to Watch Live with METEOSAT-8.

 

Keep Please, refer to BERGUITTA Updates. CLICK HERE.

PKANHYE. Updated: 10.24 am TUESDAY 16 JANAUERY 2018.

Read more: 

Thunderstorms Approaching Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion (05-08) April 2017;

Thunder, Lightning and Flood Storm Approaching Rodrigues, Mauritius and Reunion;

Rodrigues Island- Lucky Escape from Unprecedented Thunderbolts Whole Night of 30 April 2016;

Thunderbolts Trigger Heavy Rain and Panic in Mauritius-Loopholes of Local Meteorological Services';

Heavy Rainfalls in Rodrigues-Incompetence of the Mauritius Meteorological Services and Disaster Management Centre;

Fusion of Atmospheric Systems and Heavy Rainfalls in Southern Indian Ocean-December 2014.

 

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