Wednesday, 26 June 2019

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VAYU Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

Preceding and Delaying S-W Asian Monsoon System 2019

(PL, wait as Uploading is still ON from Mauritius)

          

The Weather Dynamics prevailing in South-West Asia indicate that Disasters from the Atmosphere, Land and Ocean/Sea are on the way of causing very heavy losses of the Wealth-of-the-Nation’. The Deadly and Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm FANI devastated mainly the State of Orissa located in the East of the Indian Subcontinent during 25-28 April 2019. The South-West Asian Monsoon System started with a delay of 7 days, as compared to the Onset date of 01 June 2019. Thus, Heat Waves and Drought were prolonged.

The Low Pressure in the Arabian Sea and adjoining Kerala developed rapidly into a Deep Depression and was named as VAYU (VAA'YU). This name in Hindi is translated into “AIR” for English language.

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SOUTH-WEST ASIAN MONSOON SYSTEM 2019 DYNAMICS

Cyclone Formation and Monsoon Onset concurrent in KERALA Zone 

India Meteorological Department (IMD) Delhi released the Onset of the South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) on 15 April 2019. The departure is normally forecast as from the Andaman Sea on 20 May 2019. But, the Weather System has made an Early entry on 18 May 2019. 25 May marks the habitual advancement on Sri Lanka and it touches the Southern India-Kerala on 1st June each year. IMD mentions in its “‘Summary of the Forecast Assessment Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be near normal.” 

However, it is worthwhile noting that Thunderstorms: Lightning, Rain, Heat Waves, Squalls and Hails have been showering in various parts of India since 06 April 2019. Besides, Phenomenal and Disastrous Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm FANI (FONI) has already triggered a ‘Weather Model’ in this Zone. Given, that Weather Systems: Cyclones, Floods, Heat Waves, etc. have now been observed to be more Frequent and Intense than usual, the Monsoon 2019 seems to be causing Impacts in this same pattern coupled with an Early arrival. So, the population of India, including those of the adjoining states, are requested to stay alert throughout the season. Losses of life, of livelihood and of economic resources, are therefore subject to Wise Disaster Management by all stakeholders.

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FANI Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

Heralded by Observation of Clouds from the Ground

And from Cyclogenesis Outlook by India Meteorological Department.

                                                         
   

PABUK Cyclonic Storm took birth at the dawn of New Year 2019 in South China Sea and during the Winter Season. After intensifying it moved towards Thailand, Myanmar, Andaman Islands and Bay of Bengal. Heavy Rains and Storm Surge affected Andaman Islands, but PABUK stayed in the Sea of Bay of Bengal.

FANI Cyclonic Storm formed on 19 April 2019. India Meteorological Department (IMD) mentioned this in its Cyclogenesis Outlook for period 19 to 25 April 2019. However, the second week of the Outlook 26 April to 02 May did not do so. It is understandable that the Probability of Cyclone formation was weak, that is 33%. This period is also the transition from Winter Season to Summer Monsoon which is due one month ahead.

Yet, the Observation of Clouds made from the Ground of Arrah, Bihar, India clearly indicated the oncoming Cyclonic System. Refer to the picture taken at 6.33 pm Friday 19 April 2019. This crystalizes the concept that Scientific Forecasts are based on Numerical Models. But, it is also known that they are not 100% Perfect. However, Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) has been 100% Perfect. The Formation of FANI was indicated by Mother Nature since Friday 19 April 2019-6 days beforehand. It should also be noted that the application of Traditional Knowledge (TILK/P) is always complementary to Scientific Forecasts of Natural Hazards. This has been approved by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland. Read various articles in this Website.

FANI is forecast to intensify into Very Severe Tropical Storm by Monday 29 April until 02 May 2019. This Weather System is highly likely to affect seriously Sri Lanka and and Eastern zone of India, especially Tamil Nadu, Puduchery and Andra Pradesh regions. So, the populations of these zones are STRONGLY requested to get prepared immediately and act according to the Warnings published by IMD.

Refer to the Advisories launched by IMD since 25 April (etd).

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KENNETH-13th and LORNA-14th Cyclones

For South Indian Ocean furthering Record

The Southern Indian Ocean is under the threat of another Twin Systems during Season 2018-2019. Besides, the passing of a series of Cyclones, the populations of Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion have experienced dangerous Floods since October 2018 until April 2019.

The Tropical Depression in the North of Madagascar has been named as KENNETH (13th) by Météo-Madagascar this afternoon 23 April 2019. Moreover, another Tropical Depression is highly likely to take birth in the East of Diego Garcia. This one will sure be named as LORNA (14th) by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) in due course. Refer to the Weather Bulletin of the MMS below.

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JOANINHA Marking a Record is another

Threat for Rodrigues (C Warning Class 4 Waived), Mauritius (Heavy Swells Warning), Reunion and Northern Madagascar saved.

                     

The Weather Dynamics of Season 2018-2019 for the South Indian Ocean confirm the initial understanding that Cyclones and Floods will strike relentlessly this zone. IDAI Tropical Cyclone has devastated, mainly, Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, including hundreds of losses of life and economic assets last week. Tropical Cyclone SAVANNAH which evolved, since 17 March 2019, mostly in the North-West of Australia, has luckily not reached in the Area of Responsibility (AOR) of the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS).

 

Now the Low Pressure located in the North of Mauritius has evolved very rapidly into a Tropical Disturbance and a Tropical Depression. It has ripened into a Cyclonic System. It has been baptised as Moderate Tropical Storm JOANINHA by the Mauritius Meteorological Services. Rodrigues Island (territory of Mauritius) appears to experience another Direct Threat in the few coming days. The Forecast Tracks by the MMS and by Météo-France-Réunion, which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) show this dangerous potential of JOANINHA. Further intensifications are also Forecast within 24 hours.

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HALEH Intense Tropical Cyclone

9th Cyclone and Weather Systems visiting South Indian Ocean

Within 3-4 Months’ Time of Season 2018-2019.

HALEH has been baptised by the Mauritius Meteorological Services on Saturday 02 March 2019. As usual, the Weather System has evolved rapidly into Intense Tropical Cyclone. It also indicates the Dynamics of the Season 2018-2019 Météo-France-Réunion, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of South Indian Ocean Basin has released its Advisories as follows:

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FUNANI and GELENA Moderate Tropical Twin Storms

Trigger Hazardous Situations for Mascarene Islands

Cyclone Warning Class 2 for Rodrigues.

        

Mention has been made regarding the formation on 05 November 2018 and its eventual naming as Moderate Tropical Storm ALCIDE on two days later, that there are many indication for a Dynamic Summer Season 2018-2019 for the South Indian Ocean. BOUCHERA was named on 10 November 2018 and KENANGA was baptized on 15 December 2018 and both escaped from the region of Indonesia. CILIDA was named on 19 December 2018. DESMOND started its life on 20 January 2019 and EKETSANG was born on 24 January 2019, both being named by Météo-Madagascar.

FUNANI Moderate Tropical Storm was named by Mauritius Meteorological Services on 05 February 2019 and Météo-Madagascar baptized GELENA Moderate Tropical Storm on same day. Both Twins have intensified into Severe Tropical Storms and appear to be threats for Rodrigues, Mauritius and Reunion, with a slight probability for Madagascar. Rodrigues was already under Cyclone Warning Class I on 05 February and the Warning has been upgraded to Class II today. See the picture of the 'Monstrous Octopus-Like' FUNANI.

All these 8 Weather Systems within a short span and their very rapid evolution crystalize the Dynamic Season for South Indian Ocean. Besides, the application of Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) already gave these indications.

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PABUK Cyclonic Storm-

Thailand, Andaman, Myanmar and Bay of Bengal

Another Winter Phenomenon

The North-Western Pacific Zone and the Tropic of Cancer are still giving birth to Storms despite the Winter Season 2019. The Deep Depression which formed at the dawn of New Year 2019 in South China Sea has intensified and has been named as a PABUK Cyclonic Storm. It has moved towards Thailand. Myanmar, Andaman Islands and Bay of Bengal are also on its track.

India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of South Asia, issued its Advisories as mentioned below.

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CILIDA Moderate Tropical Storm

Another Perfect Prediction for

Season 2018-2019 in South Indian Ocean

          

Traditional, Indigenous, Local Knowledge and Practices (TILK/P) have a tremendous complementary contribution to Science, as far as the Prediction and Forecasting of Natural Calamities are concerned. Such mention has often been made in the last and previous articles on this Website. Mauritius, including Rodrigues Islands are witnessing unprecedented blossoming and production of tropical fruits, mainly Litchis and Mangoes. Such a Natural Phenomenon has traditionally been known and understood by our local folks. No doubt, other parametres like heat, humidity and cloud observations, in addition to Wind direction from the ground and at sea, help in the Prediction of Natural Events. The formation of intensifying KENANGA, in the East of Southern Indian Ocean, is another proof. Refer to the previous article.

The WMO is well-attuned to the application of such ‘Life-Saving-Tools’ and is requested to activate fully and to explore further such priceless resources.

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KENANGA Moderate Tropical Storm and

92 S INVEST another Best Prediction

Made for Indian Ocean

Whole Indian Ocean is under the influence of Dynamic Weather Systems. On one hand, Sri Lanka and the Eastern Territories of India are experiencing the evolution of Cyclonic Storm since 14 December. On the other side, Moderate Tropical Storm KENANGA initially known as “PEACEis moving in the direction of Mascarene Islands from the Indonesia. Another Zone of another Tropical Depression is taking birth in the Northern Area between Madagascar and the Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion Islands.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has signalled all these Weather Systems accurately. Météo-France-Réunion, which is the Regional l Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) has mentioned Cyclogenesis since a few days. Unfortunately, the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) seems to be still dormant at such crucial moments.  

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PHETHAI named- (94B INVEST/Deep Depression) in Northern Indian Ocean and evolving since 14 December 2018 is Predicted to intensify and make landfall in two days’ time.

                                                                                                       

Both the Northern and Southern Indian Ocean, including Western Pacific, are still experiencing Cyclonic Conditions, despite being in the Winter Season. A Deep Depression (Tropical Depression) in the Bay of Bengal is influencing Weather near Shri Lanka and adjoining Eastern Territories of India.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a Press Release at 13.00 hours on Friday 14 December 2018. See below.

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GAJA Cyclonic Storm-Bay of Bengal

Pre-Winter Season 2018

The whole of Indian Ocean is under the rare phenomenon of simultaneous formations of Cyclones. While the Southern Ocean is experiencing a dual Weather System-ALCIDE and BOUCHRA, The Northern Hemisphere has begotten –GAJA Cyclonic Storm in the Bay of Bengal. It is highly likely to evolve into further intensifications within 4-5 days. Moreover, Very Severe Air quality prevailing in India is likely to cause chocking breath for the population.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its Press Release today 11 November 2018 as follows:

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BOUCHRA Mod/Trop/Storm-Weakening & Reviving

2nd Cyclone for Season 2018-2019

(See updates below)

    

Mention has been rightly made in previous article regarding ALCIDE, that ‘the formation of a band of Low Pressure in Southern Indian Ocean at the end of October has been a perfect indication for the entrance of an Early Summer Season 2018-2019.’ Also that ‘the presence of 94S INVEST in the North East of Mauritius and also of 93S INVEST East of Diego Garcia prove that the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) will likely experience Disastrous Cyclones and Rains this Season.’

The Tropical Disturbance which was evolving at 5.7°South and 88.8°East of Diego Garcia has intensified rapidly. The System has been named by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS), at 22.30 hrs on Saturday 10 November 2018, as Moderate Tropical Storm BOUCHRA. This 2nd Cyclone in the Southern Indian Ocean and which has named within a week-time of ALCIDE, proves that Season 2018-2019 will no doubt beget a Dynamic Period. While Tiny ALCIDE is still struggling and weakening in the North-East of Madagascar, BOUCHRA was almost stationary far 3000 km North-East of Mauritius. As at today, 11 November, it is moving Westwards at 14 km/h.

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94S INVEST-ALCIDE First Cyclone Season 2018-2019

Heralded by Traditional Knowledge and

Ahead of International Scientific Centres

  (Pl, see Update  below)

                   

The formation of a band of Low Pressure in Southern Indian Ocean at the end of October has been a perfect indication for the entrance of an Early Summer Season 2018-2019. Observations of the Atmosphere around the Mauritius, made by applying Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) indicated an oncoming Dynamic Cyclonic Season. It is very interesting to note that tropical fruits have been blossoming almost everywhere, especially mangoes and litchis which were very low in production during last year and during precedent seasons. The sky invaded by Alto Cumulus Clouds on 23 October 2018 confirmed the Formation of Cyclone and Rains which are approaching.

The presence of 94S INVEST in the North East of Mauritius and also of 93S INVEST East of Diego Garcia prove that the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) will likely experience Disastrous Cyclones and Rains this Season. It is noteworthy to state that the Pacific Ocean has undergone a boisterous season with more than 28 Typhoons this year. So, the paradigm shift is now in the Southern Hemisphere.

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Cyclonic Storm LUBAN-Arabian Sea and Deep Depression-Bay of Bengal

Coincide with the gradual Withdrawal of

South-West Asian Monsoon System 2018

       

Deadly Severe Cyclonic Storm SAGAR(17-21 May 2018) along the Gulf of Aden and Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm MEKUNU (18-26 May 2018), very rare in the Arabian Sea, have proved that Climate, Weather and Hydrology patterns have altered considerably in North Indian Ocean. The South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) Onset, officially, started as from Tuesday 29 May 2018 in Kerala, causing Humanitarian Crisis thereafter during 13 to 23 August.

Cyclonic Storm LUBAN in the Arabian Sea was named yesterday Monday 08 October 2018 and Cyclonic Storm TITLI in the Bay of Bengal has been baptised today Tuesday 09 October. The landmass of India, the sub-continent, is sandwiched between these two Weather Systems, coinciding also with the Monsoon Withdrawal which normally takes place by 15 October 2018. All these prove that Natural Disasters are evolving dynamically in the Northern Indian Ocean. India Meteorological Department (IMD), which is also the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC), has issued its Warning as from Monday 08 October 2018.

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South-West Asian Monsoon 2018 Early Onset 

WMO Salutes IMD

   (See Final Update)

The South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) has officially started as from today Tuesday 29 May 2018. It is interesting to say that the Atmospheric Conditions of the recent weeks have been marked by Heat Waves, Thunderstorms, Lightning, Hailstones and Dust Storms. These have been Deadly with at least 150 losses of lives, lots of destructions and damages across India. Deadly Severe Cyclonic Storm SAGAR (17-21 May 2018) along the Gulf of Aden and Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm MEKUNU (18-26 May 2018), very rare in the Arabian Sea, have proved that Climate, Weather and Hydrology patterns have altered considerably in whole Indian Ocean. Like-wise the South-West Asian Monsoon System has made an early entry, just like last years’ onset on 30 May 2017, contrary to previous years. The same was mentioned in articles on SAGAR and MEKUNU in this Website. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has mentioned the 2018 Monsoon Onset from Kerala region as from 29 May.

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MEKUNU Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (92A INVEST)

Very Rapid Intensification Threatening Directly

Horn of Africa, Socotra, Oman, Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

(Final UPDATE below. Pl, be patient. )

    

The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) of the Northern Indian Ocean along the Tropic of Cancer is evolving in an enhanced phase. Hardly has SAGAR Cyclonic Storm (17-21 May 2018) made landfall in Northern Somalia and Ethiopia, 92A INVEST has formed since 18 May 2018. This Tropical Disturbance is highly likely to intensify into a Tropical Depression/Deep Depression very rapidly and be named probably today as MEKUNU. Eventually, it is forecast to be upgraded to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm very early. The Atmospheric Conditions in the Zone of Arabian Sea reaching 310 Celsius and of the adjoining landmass (Oman) 40-42 degrees Celsius are conducive for the evolution of a Stronger Storm than the previous one. Horn of Africa, Socotra, Yemen, Oman and Saudi Arabia all fall along the JTWC Forecast Track. So, the Meteorological Services and population of these countries should keep constant watch and be Prepared for Calamitous Conditions.

No doubt, this will influence the South-West Asian Monsoon whose onset is Predicted, by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to take place earlier than 01 June 2018.

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SAGAR (91A INVEST) in Arabian Sea- Rapid Development for

Socotra, Somalia, Ethiopia and Arabian Peninsula.

(See Updates  below)

                                         

While the Tropic of Capricorn of the Southern Indian Ocean is transiting towards the Winter Season, the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern Indian Ocean has made a leap into Summer Season 2018. Dust Storms, Heat Waves, Hailstorms, Lightning, Rains and Winds are already showing Deadly Disasters in India since 03 May 2018. These are preceding the South-West Indian Monsoon by about a month earlier than usual. Moreover, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain Iraq and Iran are experiencing Dust Storms together with 30-44 degrees Celsius of Heat.

A band of Low Pressure near the coast of Somalia and South of Socotra Island in the Arabian Sea is showing signs of Rapid Development. India Meteorological Department (IMD) identified it since 10 May 2018, while NRL identified it as 91A INVEST yesterday-14 May 2018.

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Dust Storms, Heat Waves, Thunderstorms and Strong Winds-

Phenomenal Deadly Weather Conditions Preceding

2018 Monsoon in India

         

Almost whole of India is experiencing Extreme and Deadly Weather Conditions since the beginning of May 2018. Dust Storms transporting sand particles and combination of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane and a lot of air pollutants have invaded the Indian Sub-continent from mostly the Arabian Peninsula. Heat Waves, Hailstones, Thunder, Lightning, Rains have caused losses of more than 150 lives, including hundreds of injured people and material damages, have been reported by the local media. Houses have been damaged by Strong Winds, falling trees, service poles, mudslides and Rains. In fact, the 2018 South-West Monsoon System for India is forecast to start as from end of May, as per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Delhi.

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