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OCKHI Very Severe Cyclonic Storm-Brief Assessment and

Disaster Resilience in India

International Centres

NOAA Climate Prediction Center has been indicating Cyclogenesis and Rainfall in the Bay of Bengal since 01 November until 28 November 2017. It was valid although Very Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI tracked towards the Arabian Sea. Refer to the pictures.

       

               

NASA sees OCKHI-the ‘EYE’

NASA released its news regarding Very Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI, EYE’ in Bengali language, with some wonderful and scientific explanations on 06 December 2017:

Ockhi is the strongest cyclone to develop in the Arabian Sea since Megh in 2015. It formed near southern India and Sri Lanka on November 30, 2017, moved out over the Arabian Sea, intensified to category 3 strength on December 2–3, but then weakened quickly as it moved north and closer to land.”

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=91364&src=eoa-iotd

“Tropical Storm Ockhi brought drenching rain to the west coast of India in early December 2017, while also stirring up dust plumes and disturbing stagnant, smoggy air in the interior

Note the smog and haze to the north and east of the storm in the December 4 image—remnants of a persistent air pollution event in the northern reaches of India. The strong winds and atmospheric circulation of Ockhi could clear that air over the next few days; rainfall also could wash many of the aerosol particles out of the air

To the north and west in the image, streams of airborne dust and sand blew out over the Arabian Sea from Pakistan and Iran. The plumes are a visible manifestation of strong northerly and northeasterly winds associated with the turbulent weather in the region. The outer bands of Ockhi stretched far to the north, and the system likely strengthened the pressure gradient between the cyclone and a high-pressure system to the northwest, intensifying surface winds until they picked up dust.”

https://in.usembassy.gov/embassy-consulates/new-delhi/air-quality-data/

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=91240

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Aerosols/

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

  

(Click pictures to enlarge)

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has been Indicating the formation of the Low Pressure, including others and been Publishing its Advisories in a dynamical way. On 24 November 2017, a Low Pressure (96 S INVEST) was identified at the West of Indonesia and South of Bay of Bengal. See pictures.

But, by 29 November there were 4 Low Pressure Systems (96S, 94S, 95S & 91B INVESTS) which were forming and evolving around the same Zone. Their respective status from Low, Medium and High probabilities were mentioned and upgraded accordingly. Two of them were named: DAHLIA (95S INVEST) which moved towards the South until Australia and OCKHI (93W INVEST) which tracked along the South and South-West of India.

        

India Meteorological Department

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), whose Head Quarters is located at Lodi Road, Delhi, is among the best meteorological services world-wide. It has a wide network of offices and services throughout its territories, which is supported by its own sophisticated Satellites, Radars, Equipment, Instruments, Tools and Servers.

IMD is also the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RS MC) mandated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland, for giving Advisories for Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Besides, IMD has also the responsibility, amongst others, for monitoring Seismic Activities in the Sub-continent regarding.

Verify here: http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/about_mandate.php

IMD published its Advisories since 29 November 2017, when the System was at the state of Deep Depression (Tropical Disturbance). Mentions were made as to its exact position, its expected intensification and Forecast Track:

{A depression formed over southwest Bay of Bengal near southeast Sri Lanka coast in the morning of 29th November, 2017. It moved nearly westwards and intensified into a deep depression in the early hours of today and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 30th November, 2017 over Comorin area near Latitude 6.7º N and Longitude 78.3º E, about 240 km west-northwest of Galle (Sri Lanka), 170 km southeast of Kanyakumari and 600 km eastsoutheast of Minicoy. The system is very likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify further into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. The track and intensity forecast of the system is given in the table below:

Date/Time(IST) Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)

Maximum sustained surface wind speed (kmph)

Category of cyclonic disturbance

30/0530 6.7/78.3 50-60 GUSTING TO 70 DEEP DEPRESSION

30/1130 7.0/77.5 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION

30/1730 7.4/76.7 60-70 GUSTING TO 80 CYCLONIC STORM

30/2330 7.8/75.8 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM

01/0530 8.2/75.0 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM

01/1730 9.2/73.5 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

02/0530 10.2/72.0 95-105 GUSTING TO 115 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

02/1730 11.2/70.5 100-110 GUSTING TO 120 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

03/0530 12.2/69.0 110-120 GUSTING TO 130 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

Warning:

(i) Heavy Rainfall Warning:

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely over south Tamil Nadu & south Kerala during next 24 hours and isolated heavy falls during subsequent 24 hours.

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls very likely over Lakshadweep area during next 48 hours.

(ii) Wind warning:

Squally winds reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph very likely along & off South Kerala during next 48 hours and along & off south Tamilnadu during next 24 hours.

Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph very likely along & around Lakshadweep Islands during next 24 hours and gradual increase in wind speed becoming 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph during subsequent 24 hours.

(iii) Sea condition:

Sea conditions would be very rough to high along & off South Kerala during next 48  hours and along & off south Tamilnadu during next 24 hours.

Sea conditions would be very rough to high along & around Lakshadweep Islands during next 24 hours and high during subsequent 24 hours.

(iv) Damage Expected over Lakshadweep Islands:

Damage to power and communication lines due to breaking of tree branches and

uprooting of trees. Damage to thatched houses: Major damage to kutch houses and minor damage to pucca roads. Damage to paddy crops, banana, Papaya trees and orchards.

(v) Action suggested:

Lakshadweep Islands: Fishermen along & off Lakshadweep Islands are advised not to venture into the sea during next 48 hours.

South Tamil Nadu and South Kerala: Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along & off South Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hrs and along and off South Kerala coasts during next 48 hours.}

{ Orange message.

 The deep depression over Comorin area moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 38 kmph during past 06 hours and intensified into a cyclonic storm ‘OCKHI’ and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 30th November, 2017 over Comorin area and neighbourhood near Latitude 7.5º N and Longitude 77.5º E, about 340 km west-northwest of Galle (Sri Lanka), 60 km south of Kanyakumari, 120 km southeast of Thiruvananthapuram and 480 km east-southeast of Minicoy. The system is very likely to move west-northwestwards towards Lakshadweep Islands and intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours’}

IMD has revised its Forecast Track and upgraded the status of OCKHI in ‘RED ALERT’, with a Forecast of further intensification within 48 Hours.

             

<<Sub: Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘OCKHI’ over Lakshadweep area and adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea and Cyclone Warning for Lakshadweep Islands- RED message.

The severe cyclonic storm ‘OCKHI’ over Lakshadweep area and adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea continued to move west-northwestwards with a speed of 11 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 01st December, 2017 over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea near Latitude 9.0º N and Longitude 73.4º E, about 80 km north-northeast of Minicoy and 240 km south-southeast of Amini Divi. The system is very likely to intensify further during next 24 hours. It is very likely to continue to move west-northwestwards across Lakshadweep Islands during next 24 hours and then move north/ northeastwards during the subsequent 48 hours.>>

According to the Press Release Number 4 of 12.00 hrs 02 December 2017, IMD has upgraded the System as Very Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI.

<<Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘OCKHI’ over Lakshadweep area and adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea and Cyclone Warning for Lakshadweep Islands- RED Message

Yesterday’s Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘OCKHI’ over southeast Arabian Sea moved west-northwestwards and intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm around noon of 1 st December. Continuing, it’s west-northwestward movement, it lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 02nd December, 2017 over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea near Latitude 9.7º N and Longitude 71.2º E, about 260 km west-northwest of Minicoy and 230 km southwest of Amini Divi. The system is very likely to intensify further during next 24 hours. It is very likely to continue to move west-northwestwards during next 24 hours and then recurve northeastwards during the subsequent 48 hours.>>

 

Disaster Resilience  of Incredible India Tested 

The passage of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI, along the South and South-West of India, has proved to be an Excellent ‘Test-Case’ for the Resilience of the Sub-Continent.

 

VSCS OCKHI caused some positive Impacts in the Atmosphere in India, as per NASA explanation given above. It accelerated the phasing out the smog, fog and disastrous Air Quality (reaching nearly 500 ppm) which prevailed therein since the beginning of November 2017. This is a very plausible and informative clarification, from which the whole population can enhance their knowledge.

OCKHI, being the strongest cyclone after MEGH in 2015, undoubtedly, caused Calamitous Impacts on land and at sea. The most remarkable were the Loss of Lives, of Livelihood, and of Economic Wealth, along the South and South-West of India and the Lakshadweep Islands. Besides, OCKHI brainstormed the Policy Makers, District Collectors and Councillors, especially those of Tamil Nadu and Kerala States, who were not Aware and Prepared for the rapidly developing Weather Event. There was a general panic and confusion which invaded almost all them. Vehement protests, according to local media, were made by the families of the fishing community and by the public for the acceleration of the Disaster Response teams. So far, media reports that 400 fishermen are still missing, unfortunately.

Policy Makers are the Modern Rulers in our contemporary life. However, they do not necessarily, except a few, hail from the Scientific World and/or Scientific Lineage, as far as Disaster Management is concerned. Their ‘off-spring’ origins and wealth count the most. They make use of terms and expressions like Climate Change, Global Warming, Floods, Cyclones, Tides, Droughts, etc. during their talks whose contents are mostly written by some advisors/civil servants. They may also enhance their knowledge while pursuing their political functions, especially when they attend conferences, symposiums, workshops, etc. at local, regional and international levels. In short, the Policy Makers appear to be ''Illiterate in Disaster Management''. Besides, they rely entirely on institutions and professionals attached to their functions. See a few examples below.

 Incompetent Mass Media in India

Media is considered as one of the main Stakeholders in the Framework for Disaster Management, according to WMO and UNISDR. Unfortunately, television and radio stations, newspapers, magazines, electronic media do not play their role accordingly despite adherence to International Protocols and Conventions. Such situation exists in India, Nepal, Mauritius and in many countries. Here are a few loopholes and shortcomings observed during the passage of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI (29 November to 05 December 2017). 

Doordarshan

Television and radio stations, newspapers and social media: facebook, twitter, youtube, electronic and etc. have been disseminating their respective information to the public. Doordarshan (DD) is the national television channel which receives, amongst two dozen others, the Warnings issued by IMD. It may have been disseminating the IMD messages regarding OCKHI.

This station is available for a short time in Mauritius. I requested for a meeting with DD, through Twitter, before leaving Mauritius for my Survey Tour in India 12 May to 06 October 2017. There was no response. However, I sent an email on 30 May 2017 while I was in Delhi. See extract of correspondence below:

{Additional Director General 

Doordarshan Kendra,

Phase II,

Copernicus Marg,

Delhi.                                

Request for a Meeting and Sharing of Knowledge.

1.10 pm TUESDAY 30 MAY 2017.}

I had one meeting on 06 June 017 with Director Mr A. Sengupta, his deputy and one reporter Mr S.Chawdharry. My objective was to participate with DD Gramin Krishi Mawsam Sewa (GKMS) Programme for the Agricultural Sector and to share my knowledge and experience in Traditional Knowledge (TILK/P) with them. Another meeting was held on 12 June, on which day a brief video recording was produced by Mr SC. The reporter went on a vacation leave for a fortnight explaining to me that he would disseminate my video after his return and would continue my interview. That was never made!

                   

NDTV 24/7

It worthwhile to note that I follow NDTV live from Mauritius, since more than two years. Besides, I have tried to contact the station on various occasions requesting for a meeting before and after I left Mauritius for my Survey in India 12 May-06 October 2017. Unfortunately, this too has not materialized.

However, NDTV 24/7, a private television station is accessible day and night, as from Mauritius. So, the reports regarding OCKHI were followed through this channel. As mentioned so often, that Media representatives do not fulfil their role properly. It was noted that obsolete information was released from morning until the afternoon without updates. While trying to make some update, one NDTV reporter interviewed live the commander of the Coast Guard (CG) whose teams were carrying out response and rescue operations. The said reporter asked the CG: ‘where has OCKHI reached?’. The Commander tried to give some meagre explanation and rather clarified the CG part played so far. It is ridiculous that information on the Weather Status was being obtained from the CG instead from the Meteorological Department which is the real institution concerned.

At another moment, a second reporter of NDTV, including the one who was at the studio, mentioned about High Tide which was prevailing in the Kerala sea coasts. The email address of NDTV is unavailable on its website. Given, that I am a follower of NDTV on the Twitter, I asked:

Why should you ask about Weather from the CG?”

I further twitted my explanation- “NB: Cyclones generate STORM SURGES at sea, NOT HIGH TIDE. Why does your reporter ask Coast Guards about WEATHER? Why have you not mentioned about the 'Well-Marked Low Pressure in B of Bengal? Be Professional. Read: http://www.kanhye.com/10-depressions-cyclones/146-well-marked-low-pressure-93w-invest-in-bay-of-bengal-after-vsts-ockhi

Verify with . 

It is also noticeable that NDTV 24/7 uses English medium in which sophisticated and bombastic terms/expressions are utilized. The other Media are in the same position, as if they are in a fierce competition among themselves. 

The Early Warning Systems explain that simple language should be used for dissemination of Alerts/Warnings/Bulletins. Above all, local languages should be the vehicle of expressions so that the messages are reachable to those in need. ‘Putting-People-First’ and People-Centred’ concepts and ‘Country-Driven’ Mechanisms are the pathways towards Disaster Resilience.

Usually, news reporters disseminate second hand information, because they are not necessarily at the place at the right time. They may be present regarding political or social matters, as they act more as ‘paparazzi. Have you ever come across a news reporter for Predicting or Forecasting a Natural or Man-Made event? Yet, this is possible if Professional Journalism is taught rightly.

Dr. K Vasuki IAS, District Collector of Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, stated to NDTV 24/7 that the fishermen of Lakshadweep were not aware of the presence of the OCKHI in the region.

 

As a responsible Civil Servant, she should have verified the website of IMD and taken appropriate and timely action mentioned in the Warning Bulletin. Above all she should have remembered that the ‘13 October Disaster Reduction Day-2017’ was marked by UNISDR as ‘Reducing the Number of People Affected’.

 

Newspapers 

Times of India published the following (date being unavailable on its website):

[India Meteorological Department (IMD) is an agency under Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India which is responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology. It has the responsibility for forecasting, naming and distribution of warnings for tropical cyclones in the Northern Indian Ocean region, including the Malacca Straits, the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/topic/india-meteorological-department

See how the article of Times of India is misleading, besides disseminating poor information. The WMO has 191 Member States which are classified in 6 Zones. India is found in Region II and its Area of Responsibility (AOR) is limited to the 8 Countries mentioned above. The Strait of Malacca is located between Malaysia and Indonesia which are classified in Region V. In addition, they are both, amongst others, under the Area of Responsibility of Australia. Refer to the picture. Check it here- https://public.wmo.int/en/about-us/members 

Click Google Earth above to Verify Malacca Strait or Click here. https://www.google.com/maps/@4.2633298,99.0391209,1069620m/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=en 

 

Another article published by Times of India Business appears contradictory and confusing:

[PTI | Dec 8, 2017, 14:02 IST

'Cyclone Ockhi has not caused much damage to crops: Agri Sec'

The impact of cyclone Ockhi on crops so far has not been significant in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and other coastal areas, Agriculture Secretary S K Pattanayak said today…

"The damage on crops has been slightly, not much. The cyclone has fizzled out by the time it reached Gujarat. We are still assessing the damage," Pattanayak told .

There has not been significant impact on crops in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and parts of Maharashtra. "However, we have alerted them to send a detailed report," he said.

Last week, cyclone Ockhi battered the coastal areas of the southern states, flooding farmland and damaging houses. The cyclone storm brought heavy rains and some areas suffered extensive crop damage due to strong wind that uprooted coconut trees and other plantation crops.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ockhi has weakened into a deep depression early this morning and lay centred over west-central part of Bay of Bengal near Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.

"It is likely to maintain intensity of deep depression for about 12 hours and weaken gradually into a depression during subsequent 12 hours," it said in a statement.

IMD said it is very likely to move north-northwestwards and reach north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts around December 9 morning as a depression.]

 

Unfortunately, this Newspaper is causing much confusion in the minds of its readers, as far as damages to crops are concerned. The author has, besides, distorted information regarding Very Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI which was evolving in South-West of India and regarding ‘Well-Marked Deep Depression’ (JTWC-93W INVEST) which tracked towards Odissa/Andra Pradesh in the South-East.

This may also prove that he/she is NOT AWARE of the formation of another Weather System on which IMD had already published a Warning. See next article: 'Well-Marked Low Pressure (93W INVEST) in Bay of Bengal after VSTS OCKHI'

 

Also verify here:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/cyclone-ockhi-has-not-caused-much-damage-to-crops-agri-sec/articleshow/61978711.cms  

Indian Express 

The Indian Express Newspaper also caused some confusion by mentioning the name of OCKHA instead of OCKHI. In its article entitled ‘What is cyclone Ockhi?’

[How did cyclone Ockha form?

The deep depression in the south of Kanyakumari and west of Sri Lanka, intensified and resulted into a cyclonic storm. According to Skymet, the cyclone moving at a speed of 38 kmph, was located at Latitude 7.5°N and Longitude 77.5°E, around 55 km south of Kanyakumari, 120 km southwest of Thiruvananthapuram, 480 km east-­southeast of Minicoy and 340 km west-­northwest of Galle in Sri Lanka and is moving towards Lakshadweep island.

...  The IMD report has also added that power and communication lines may break down in south Kerala and Lakshadweep. 

.. As Ockhi passed the coast of Mumbai Tuesday, the city witnessed the highest December rainfall in 142 years — since December 12, 1967 — with Colaba receiving 82.2 mm rainfall and Santacruz receiving 53.8 mm in 24 hours.]

This is unacceptable, because every article and information which is meant to be published demands revision, vetting and verification. Such carelessness prove that there is no Code of Ethics and/or Professionalism. Moreover, it is a question of Preventing Loss of Life, of Property and of Economic Wealth.

Check it out here: http://indianexpress.com/article/india/cyclone-ockhi-tamil-nadu-rains-kerala-lakshadweep-bay-of-bengal-storm

 

Hindustan Times

The Hindustan Times’s Article Updated: ‘Dec 06, 2017 14:59 IST’ and entitled:  ‘Aftermath of cyclone Ockhi: Kerala to maintain fishermen registry, install GPS in vessels’ shows how Policy Makers try to ‘Be-Wise-After-the-Event’.

<<<The Kerala government on Wednesday decided to maintain a registry of its fishermen and install GPS and other tracking as well as life-saving gadgets on their vessels to limit damages in the wake of natural calamities like cyclone.

The move comes amid confusion over number of fishermen went missing after cyclone Ockhi lashed the state’s coast on November 30.

“...We have also announced a cyclone relief package for them. It was an unexpected calamity,” chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan announced after a cabinet meeting.

He reiterated that the state government did not receive any prior warning on the impending cyclone, hinting that the central agencies were to be blamed for the loss of lives and properties in the state

The state government’s rescue and relief efforts came under fire from the residents of coastal belt who staged protests, alleging the response to the crisis was tardy.>>> 

Please, check it here:

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/aftermath-of-cyclone-okchi

 

The same Newspaper published: 

{Updated: Dec 06, 2017 16:41 IST

Government officials have said that 33,000 people in Kerala and 2,800 in Tamil Nadu have been affected by the cyclone so far. The Centre said 39 people have lost their lives and another 167 are missing after Cyclone Ockhi engulfed parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala…

2.10pm: Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan said there was no advance warning about Cyclone Ockhi. “There was no advance information about Cyclone Ockhi at all. On November 30, at 8.30 a.m. the India Meteorological Department intimated about a very deep deep depression about 170 km off Kanyakumari (Tamil Nadu) coast. Even at that time, there was no mention of cyclone. And by that time fishermen had already ventured into the sea,” he said.}

It is Well-Known that Policy Makers blame Institutions or Mother Nature or GOD when they fail in their duty. Thus they show their incompetence in providing Safety & Protection to their respective population. All Warnings were duly issued by IMD before OCKHI and the ‘Well-Marked Depression’ for the States of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Gujrat and Maharashtra. In addition, Special Bulletins were published for the Agricultural and Fishing communities. Besides, 4.25 million SMS were sent to Farmers. Refer to IMD Report: http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/advertisements_view.php?ff=20171212_advt_45 

It is noteworthy to add that the National Disaster Management Authority (NMDA), Delhi, also carried forward, through its website, the Warnings issued by IMD. Who tried to log on its website to Mitigate the Impacts of OCKHI?

See http://www.ndma.gov.in/en/

 

The Prime Minister, President of Republic, Chief Ministers, Ministers, Junior Ministers, Block Administrators, Village Councillors (Mukhiyas), CEO’ s, etc. are requested to keep watch and to follow IMD, NDMA and other Ministries in view of enhancing their knowledge and to save their own life, including that of others. Disaster Resilience is a matter of concern for every individual and institution. Immediate Actions are required than ‘sleeping on laurels’ because too many lives are being lost stupidly.  

Above all, Scientists, Meteorologists and Researchers devote all their Knowledge and Time in publishing their Advisories and Warnings. They do these freely for the Protection and Safety of whole Mankind world-wide. Therefore Policy Makers and all Stakeholders mentioned above, should ‘Make Hay when the Sun Shines’. After China and Philippines, India is 3rd Country to be the Most Vulnerable in terms of Disasters, according to the UN ‘Economic and Human Impact by Disasters in the last 10 Years.’

 

The Largest Democracy-India has a population of around 1,300,000,000 people plus hundreds of thousands of tourists, visitors, expatriates, etc. Just log on the IMD Website- http://www.imd.gov.in/Welcome%20To%20IMD/Welcome.php

 

Try to verify the number of visitors of this website, as mentioned on the bottom left corner. As at date-20 December 2017, there are only 10,018,837 visitors since 01 June 2017. Whither ‘Digital India’ has gone?

  1. Cyclone MORA which evolved in the Bay of Bengal 28 May to 02 June 2017, caused the death of 24 persons in Bihar; ‘177 died in Sri Lanka, and 109 remain missing. Over half a million people have been affected by flooding and landslides’ triggering humanitarian crisis and 9 were dead in Bangladesh, including lots of impacts therein’;
  2. The Floods of 08-15 August 2017 caused another series of Humanitarian Crisis in India (1,000 dead in Bihar only), and in Nepal 70 deaths and other damages were reported.
  3. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI (30 November to 05 December 2017) caused lots of damages/loss to fishing boats, houses, crops, trees, power networks etc. and 2,800 fishermen affected of whom about 40 were dead and 400 others yet to be missing, according to Media.

See the ratio of visitors and population on IMD Website. This is very poor! Very little number of citizens, including intellectuals, verify information on Climate and Weather issues. One such civil servant of the educational sector even said "there is no need to log on IMD website because cyclones do not occur in Bihar", despite Hazards from Land, Ocean, Rivers and Atmosphere are rampant.

New Delhi has outclassed the Pollution Level than China, with over 500 ppm. The cricket match between India and Sri Lanka was cancelled/postponed last week because players, including population got breathing problems. Can we say that India is the Champion of Disaster Resilience, as was mentioned in a Conference held 12-15 May 2017 in New Delhi, with respect to Sendai Disaster Risk Reduction Framework? The pathway towards Disaster Resilience is paved starting from the establishment of road rules/signs and of garbage collection. Professionals of Urban Development should learn the “a, b, c, d, of drainage systems from the Professionals of the Ancient Indus Valley Civilization: absorption pits, boreholes, canals, drains/drainage systems.

There are lots of hurdles to overcome. PM Modi has stated some time ago that there are more than 3,000 villages/localities wherein electricity power is lacking. So, the problem of connectivity with the main stream is yet to be solved. DISASTER RESILIENCE IS REMOTE IN INDIA.

During my meetings 12 May to 04 October 2017 with the India Meteorological Department DGs, Deputy DGs and staff, National Disaster Management Authority, National Institute of Disaster Management, HCM Rajasthan Institute of Public Administration and those of Nepal, I laid much stress on the Training of Media representatives. I had already prepared my Power Point Presentation on this issue before leaving Mauritius.

                

A guideline on Dissemination of Bulletins to Media was given to IMD Delhi Scientist Mr Charan Singh on 06 June 2017, and also to IMD Kolkata Scientist Mr Uma Kanta Saha on 29 July 2017, including Mr Anand Shankar Scientist of IMD at Doppler Radar Station, Phulwari, Patna on 06 September 2017. The same was given to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) in Kathmandu, Nepal on 07 August 2017, just before the Deadly Floods.

 

Let me justify with an example.

Madagascar located in the South-West of Indian Ocean, is among the poorest countries, despite unlimited mineral resources, including others. It is also the Most Vulnerable landmass, in terms of Cyclones, Floods, Droughts, etc. of this zone. However, the Météo--Madagascar has accomplished what other countries have not. The Meteorological Service has already given Training to news reporters two years ago. Moreover, children have also been Trained in presenting Weather Bulletins on the Television. This is a vivid example which should be adopted by every National Hydrological and Meteorological Service (NHMS). 

 

NB: I already had a meeting at the Embassy of Madagascar in Mauritius, just two weeks before flying to India on 11 May 2017. My objective was to encourage Madagascar which is rising after more than a decade of politico-socio-economic crises. I also mentioned that I would fly there to support Climate and Weather Prediction, as soon as opportunity will arise. Besides, the 4 departments of Météo--Madagascar and of Disaster Management follow, diligently and regularly KANHYE.COM Newsletters. Click here or the picture above to Watch Video.

 

UNISDR and WMO Guide Lines

Dr. Jan Egeland, UN Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs, mentioned in the Grand Baie Conference in March 2005, organised by UNISDR, following the Devastating Tsunami of 26 December 2004 (which I had Predicted in March-April 2002 and also participated in the Conference): “Disaster reduction is not simply a matter of sophisticated technology and hardware: at root it is also a matter of communication and education...We need better ways of communicating accurate information to the public in need of such information”.                                                     

The role of the World Meteorological Organisation is to contribute in providing safety and welfare to humanity, that is:

  1. protection of life and property against natural disasters- droughts, floods, cyclones, forest fires, etc.;
  2. to safeguard the environment;
  3. to enhance the social and economic well-being in all sectors of society in areas like food security, water resources and transport

The EWS are defined by WMO to include four components:

  1. detection, monitoring and forecasting the hazards;
  2. analysis of risks involved;
    1. dissemination of timely and authoritative warnings and
    2. activation of emergency preparedness and response plans. 

Enhance your Knowledge here: https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate 

 

Suggestions and Sensitizations

The Aims and Objectives of my Cheval de Bataille’ are, amongst others, to build a Disaster Resilient Society at local, regional and international levels. The Fishing communities living along the coast lines of Sri Lanka and India, including the Navy, Army and Coast Guards, should be educated regarding the Ocean Currents of North Indian Ocean. They should know that High and Low Tides take place twice each day, with a height of about 5-6 feet. They should know that Storm Surge occur during cyclones and are different from Tides because they are deadly, with about 15 feet high. Tsunami Waves are much more different and Deadliest with 30 feet height moving at 350 kph (all approximate figures).

 

More important than this, is that they should enhance their knowledge on the real behaviour/movement of Waves in normal times. Kanyakumari locality is situate at the tip of South India. It is like a peninsular whose landmass is subject to boisterous Sea Waves, more or less similar to those of Cape of Good Hope, South Africa.

 

The series of islands/islets of Lakshadweep are under the stress of a different nature of Waves. This situation is similar to the Waves in Andaman and Nicobar zone and also in Maldives Archipelago. So, during cyclonic times the Waves in these particular regions become deadly, while tossing boats and everything. Besides, the Advisories of JTWC always mention Ocean Wave Heights, which should be respected and adapted.

 

That is one of the reasons why I was in India 12 May-06 October 2017; that is, to evaluate the prospects of launching a Centre for sensitizing the population on Disaster Resilience, amongst others. IMD, NDMA, NIDM, Bihar State Disaster Management Authority (BSDMA), including others, are aware of and agreeable to this project. The second phase will be undertaken by end of 2018. Revival of the dying Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) will be in the Focus.

                         

New Legislation and Immediate Implementation

The Policy Makers of India, as well as those of all countries, are requested to legislate and/or amend laws to regulate and to render mandatory all Media-television, radio stations and newspapers regarding sensitization on Calamities, both Natural and Man-made. One channel and/or one page must be devoted to this by all Media. Entertainment and advertisements should be limited during times of hazards. Safety and Protection of the populace should be prioritzed.

Furthermore, legislations should also be passed regarding the Fishing Industry. Swimming Training to Fishermen should be the first target, as many do not know this. Sea-worthiness of boats, appropriate life jackets, life-saving kits: lamps, torches, tools, equipment, subsistence food/water, mobile phones, ropes, spare parts, etc. should be analysed before allowing fishing activities.

There is no ‘Final Assessment Report’ as such regarding the Impacts of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI. Yet, you can log on to this website to have a partial knowledge of the Crises: loss of life, of livelihood and damages undergone. Prime Minster Modi has been touring around the affected zones. It is very sad to learn that 400 fishermen are still missing, especially that they were the only bread earners of their family. Check here:

https://www.narendramodi.in/pm-to-visit-cyclone-ockhi-affected-areas-of-lakshadweep-tamil-nadu-and-kerala-tomorrow-538238

Also Watch Video here: https://www.narendramodi.in/pm-interacts-with-people-affected-by-cyclone-ockhi-reviews-progress-of-cyclone-relief-measures-in-lakshadweep-tamil-nadu-and-kerala--538253

                

PKANHYE.                       20 DECEMBER 2017.

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Read more:  Deep Depression South-West Sri Lanka- Intensified Rapidly as Very Severe Cyclonic Storm OCKHI;

                                Well-Marked Low Pressure (93W INVEST) in Bay of Bengal after VSTS OCKHI;

                                 International Day for Disaster Reduction- 13 October 2017: ‘Reducing the number of affected People.’;

                                 Nepal, India, China, Japan and Mauritius Under Significant Natural Calamities;

                                  Central India-Heavy Rains and Cyclonic System Approaching;

                                  MORA Severe Cyclonic Storm-Phenomenal, Churning Monsoon Rains and Early Warning Systems- Not Perfect;

                                  Tropical Disturbance Trapped in the South-West Monsoon System. MORA Cyclonic Storm finally named;

                                   MONSOON INDIA 2017-Earlier and WINTER 2017 Southern Indian Ocean Earlier. & others  

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